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map
03 Jun 11 19:29
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Date Joined: 24 Sep 06
| Topic/replies: 79,794 | Blogger: map's blog
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Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:27 PM BST
The singing lessons have clearly changed his accent too ;)


Only caught the end, but hardly a particularly friendly Ronan report.
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 10:30 PM BST
Says a layer

Thought it was an appeal for votes myself
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:32 PM BST
OK GB.
I can't agree.
He's very beatable for me.
But when I oppose you on these awful cowell shows I usually end up losing.
Got close with Becca though.
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 10:33 PM BST
Cowell didn't even care on that one

Probably does on this now
Report Cider June 3, 2011 10:34 PM BST
Will THEY still have the audacity to put him on last ?

If Ronan doesn't get the pimp the market won't like it.
Report FXDUX June 3, 2011 10:36 PM BST
We should have a market on whether Ronan sings last.

I don't think he will.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 10:36 PM BST
Twitter has sympathy over cynicsm by about 20 v 1.  Cowell knows what he is doing. Would this have even been a story without clifford? A single blogger?

I still have the option to go level/small green on ronan and leave a big green on jai. Would leave me with a fair red on NB but I just can't see them winning...1D all over again?
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 10:37 PM BST
You're talking about the man who had the audacity to put Weasel on last every week
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:38 PM BST
He did care. He'd just given up.

As for caring about this. He could easily be lukewarm about Ronan in order to show it's not a fix.


Only a small red FX. Not played this one too big. My biggest bet was on bikey boy on monday.
Report Cider June 3, 2011 10:39 PM BST
Not much point in guessing without the info imo. I waited for my big play ir on Spelbound ly and that worked out well. May as well do the same this year. Once it was obvious Moral was being shafted tonight Razy was a great bet to win the heat. No way to know that pre-show.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 10:41 PM BST
You're talking about the man who had the audacity to put Weasel on last every week

And coincidentally that was on orders from SonyUSA GB. Everyone, including Cowell, is somebody's biatch.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 10:42 PM BST
One day someone who knows where all the bodies are buried will go to the press with evidence and cowell will be fvcked.
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 10:42 PM BST
In fairness (unlike Jess) Moral ruggedly shafted himself
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 10:43 PM BST
Probably GB, but not this week it seems
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:43 PM BST
Adele Silva was robbed in Hell's Kitchen!
Report FXDUX June 3, 2011 10:44 PM BST
Liza Minelli botox horror on Graham Norton right now
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 10:45 PM BST
Personally I needed twitter to confirm razy as winner Cider. For me he could have been underwhelming and Colling could have delivered on the hype.
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:45 PM BST
Beaten by an irish spud masher.
One of the best boxers of all time too tbf and thoroughly likeable guy.
Report FXDUX June 3, 2011 10:46 PM BST
maybe it's from the brain tumour - sorry liza
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 10:47 PM BST
In fairness (unlike Jess) Moral ruggedly shafted himself

And with his flexibility he probably could Laugh
Report FXDUX June 3, 2011 10:47 PM BST
George, how do you use Twitter to confirm?
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 10:48 PM BST
You can get arrested for talking to yourself fll Laugh
Report Cider June 3, 2011 10:49 PM BST
Not saying Razy was bound to win GB2, but it became clear they wanted him through. Just as clear they don't want him to win overall as well.
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:51 PM BST
Not typing to yourself though GB2
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 10:55 PM BST
Given the late RO change Cider, perhaps they'd just seen Michael's dull effort in rehearsal?
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 10:58 PM BST
Agree about waiting til we know the RO cider.
I did the same last year. Had Spellbound red before the final, but lumped on when they were last up and had a small win in the end.
If Ronan is last up may well do the same.
Report johnnyrant June 3, 2011 11:00 PM BST
I expect that vote was very close tonight. As for tomorrow, I can see Ronan being shafted now so Cowell can save face - overthrowing the rumours of it being fixed and restoring his shows' integrity. He was clearly under pressure tonight - never seen him like that before - and as GB2 pointed out, it was noticeable he hardly refuted a thing.
Ronan has to be a lay at odds on. I think he'll be up 2nd from last, but Jai or New Bounce will be last, and get the 'best performance of the night' seal of approval.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:01 PM BST
I usually charge 50 quid an hour FX for lessons but for a jai guy like you its on the house. Various methods but you have to act quick with this 30 mins format.

Start searching the name of the act s soon as performance starts.  Use advanced search 600 miles from coventry (don't ask!).  Hopefully the name is unique enough to differentiate e.g. if John Jai just search jai. Let it run without refreshing it (sounds like a Delia Smith recipe) Laugh Note how many tweets at point next act announced and repeat.

When all acts have finished refresh all at same time and count how many tweets on each. Leave as late as possible before voting/betting closes.

Usually you have only 2 or 3 acts in the mix so write these down at top of page.  Mark each reference against each of the 2 or 3 and go down to say 3 minutes e.g. "I like x and y" put a tick for each. This is usually bottom of page 1 or onto page 2.  the more tweets the quickest time on first page of 50 is also a clue.

Also worth counting only unique mentions e.g. "jai for the win" for each act.

All this is a lot easier on overnight voting like with XF.

Been 100% this week and I'm surprised fll hasn't used it more as he is the twitter guru.

Does this make sense...hope so as I have just given up my betting edge Sad
Report Cider June 3, 2011 11:04 PM BST
Razy got the big production effort, looked like Moral was just shoved out there with a token gesture, similar to 2.5 men. We don't know that there was a late change to RO?

Yep fll I'd guess Ronan pimp slot is mostly priced in, he would drop immediately when people cancel their lays and others get excited if it looked like he got the pimp. They key for me is to be prepared with the trads whatever happens.
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 11:05 PM BST
It was wrong last night and monday on my figures GB2.

You've obviously become the king of the twitter stats now Grin

I had Jai 3rd last night, but still backed him given the regional vote and Paul nowhere on monday, while Bikey boy a clear 2nd.
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 11:05 PM BST
It was wrong last night and monday on my figures GB2.

You've obviously become the king of the twitter stats now Grin

I had Jai 3rd last night, but still backed him given the regional vote and Paul nowhere on monday, while Bikey boy a clear 2nd.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:06 PM BST
Can't see cowell shafting ronan jr (oo er missus).  He's played a blinder and ronan is TCO.  I see it as:

"Ronan your good name has been dragged through the gutter by these anonymous lying cowards. Any other 12 year old would have folded under the pressure. You have come out and delivered a fantastic, professional, show stealing performance.  The GBP know when they see true guts and talent".
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 11:08 PM BST
iirc the market took quite awhile to respond to spellnound being up last.
Hopefully the same will happen if Ronan gets it.
fwiw I don't think he will.

I reckon he'll be on around 7th.
Report johnnyrant June 3, 2011 11:09 PM BST
could go either way GB2 - but he's not an odds-on good thing for me after events and I'm happy to lay at 1.8 - admittedly having backed him at bigger, but gone red on him on here for now.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:09 PM BST
mmm surprised fll. I had jai fairly well clear and then there was the multiplier factor as he had a big non twitterati vote for me (didn't mention that FX!).  The impressionist I had clear as well.  named both in running so not using hindsight. Anyway I have just given all my trade secrets way.
Report Cider June 3, 2011 11:11 PM BST
One can't be absolutely sure the line-up at the top of the show is what transpires, although very likely. Many seemed to interpret Moral getting the pimp today.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:12 PM BST
I think this series has shown that going last is an advantage but not the deal sealer we thought going by the 100% success stats of previous series.  More likely TPTB put the best acts on last which is what you do in show biz.  certainly didn't help the hand wavers t'other night Laugh
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:14 PM BST
I'm 687 green on Jai cider which is big for me and I just have a good feeling about him.  I know you ain't convinced.  thanks to twitter I can soon trade out if I'm quick enough.
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 11:15 PM BST
Michael Collings has transformed Jai into a singing genius for me now
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:18 PM BST
Oh FX should have said that with AI quite often the one with the most tweets lost. this happens with marmite acts so beware.  If you have non-marmite acts like jai, ronan, razy (very little -ve on these on twitter) then the raw numbers can be pretty accurate.

Ironically I have had more success with quick voting shows like this and SPOTY than overnighters. Sometimes less is more [;)]
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 11:22 PM BST
I'd have have thought Ronan was over stated on twitter since the huge influx of FB teens over the last year of so.
Report Cider June 3, 2011 11:24 PM BST
Jai has absolutely no usp, GB2. Not an endearing personality either. Someone has to win, tho!
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:34 PM BST
Good point fll. Thinking about it I think the non twitterati vote goes more to the older, more mainstream types.  On that basis NB would need to be miles ahead on twitter to even be in the hunt.  I'm happy to be red on them for now.

Sometimes Cider being a nice genuine guy can be a USB in itself.  Astonishing that i think he said he couldn't get a girlfriend as the ladies seem to love him. What's not to like. Plus with his voice and the right song he can knock one out of the park in a way that the over rehearsed and ultimately sterile ronan can't...imo.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:35 PM BST
USB Laugh  USP
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 11:37 PM BST
Ian Dury on BBC4 for anyone who enjoys genuine British talent.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:42 PM BST
Ah yes saw him as a student in 1979/80. fantastic.
Report George Bailey June 3, 2011 11:45 PM BST
And Wilko too..saw feelgood in 76...lee brilleaux RIP.
Report five leaves left June 3, 2011 11:56 PM BST
You're older than I thought GB2 and older than me.
I saw him a couple of times in the 80's
Report GeorgeBrush June 3, 2011 11:57 PM BST
I've never heard of him, before my time [;)]
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 12:04 AM BST
lol lying bastard.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 12:06 AM BST
LOL fll

I'm young for my age fll [;)] Used to be in a punk/new wave band.

Now you have me watching prog rock programme till 1.30am Cry
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 12:13 AM BST
Are you Lou GB2?
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 12:17 AM BST
Why isn't collings 100/1? has a runner up ever won this?
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 12:18 AM BST
Are you serious GB?

If I was I'd have had a lot of conversations with myself on here Laugh Spotted (I think)Lou's other name once but forgotten it now.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 12:20 AM BST
Watching this prog rock shiiit reminds me why I got into punk Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 12:22 AM BST
Are you Collings? [;)]
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 12:26 AM BST
I switched that sh1te off GB.

Doing some youtubing now while doing my nuts on the poker again.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 12:32 AM BST
Good luck fll. Don't like the thought of you not doing well on the specials and the poker...something anti-establishment and romantic about making a living doing both.  Reality probably pretty different.

Sometimes I think if I'd chased my chips in at work a year ago and invested it all on here I'd have been sitting pretty. But I guess the bigger the stakes the more my bottle/judgement would go.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 12:40 AM BST
Overall doing ok.
Poker is a killer for wild swings though. It's why I don't play so much these days. Also fewer absolute duffers about who often didn't even know the rules going by the way some of them played Laugh

Specials is going ok. Excellent Eurovision. Not as good as last year, but that would have been hard to beat and a very good American Idol.
Much better than last year.
DOI about the same. Small win.
Lost on the Brits due to lack of research
Will probably end up losing a little on BGT unless the flying scotsman can some to my rescue.

And still all the big ones to come. CBB, BB, XF, IAC and SCD.
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 12:42 AM BST
Jai 9.5 at chep's place chaps

A bit out of line
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 12:42 AM BST
I'm certainly feeling alot more relaxed than I was after DOI and the Brits.
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 12:42 AM BST
Let me have £8 Plain
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 12:46 AM BST
I've never done that well on BGT. Some nice trades that have meant small wins most years.
Diversity my only decent winner.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 12:54 AM BST
That's good to hear. A guy I know does the poker but he has about 800 programmes working out the odds and wins on a small % basis. I just had an image of all the players doing this.  Bit removed from The Cincinatti Kid!

I'm defintely getting better on these shows and listing the ones I usually win on they would be:

XF
BGT
SCD
Eurovision (this year anyway)
SPOTY
CBB
AI

Less good:
BB (hopeless at this but oddly fine at CBB;)
DOI (though I have this cracked for future years now I think)
IAC (tend to look for "value" instead of waiting for the obvious winner to drop to evens and then pile in)

Clear to me that there are a number of golden rules for each show that if you follow and don't let your heart rule your head you are fine.  I don't mind paying to learn.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:03 AM BST
BB nearly always my best result, but also the hardest work.
You need to watch plenty of LF and spot the hidden gems and the total koonts before the highlights watches do.
It often takes weeks for the HL's watches to catch up, but over the course of a series you get a pretty fair reflection of the personalities you see on the LF.
The koonts are always exposed eventually even if it takes some time as t did with JJ this year and Siavash the year before.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:03 AM BST
watchers*
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:05 AM BST
Fvck me lads fill yer boots. I know what it's saying re jai and when poll started but I have topped up big style:

NB. This poll was started straight after Jai won Thursday's Semi-Final- it's probably biased towards the Acts that Qualified later in the week rather than earlier in the week because they are fresher in responder's memories and definitely biased against Friday's qualifiers because they've had a lot less exposure that the previous qualifiers before this poll was started.


1. Who do your want to Win Britain's Got Talent 2011? (Qualifiers & Main Contenders from 5th Semi)
Michael Morale (Breakdancer/Body-Popping) 3%
New Bounce (12-16 yr old Singers) 0%
Jai McDowall (Scottish Singer) 35%
Les Gibson (Impressionist) 19%
Ronan Parke (Singer) 11%
Pip & Buddy (Opera singer with singing dog) 5%
Michael Collings (Singer / guitarist) 1%
Razy Gogonea (Breakdancer/Body-Popping) 11%
Steven Hall (Comedy Dancer) 8%
James Hobley (White Haired Dancer) 5%
Paul Gbegbaje (Pianist) 1%
Jean Martin (Organist) 2%
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:06 AM BST
He's 15/2 on some sites I ain't got an account on.  Think this poll tells us a lot re some of the acts.
Report Henry VIII June 4, 2011 1:12 AM BST
What's the link to that poll George?
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:14 AM BST
Its the TVpoll that has been so accurate this week.

http://surveymonkey.com/s/bgtresults
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:16 AM BST
Confirms what I said re new bounce being a new 1D; lay the aarse off them.
Report Henry VIII June 4, 2011 1:19 AM BST
thanks
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:21 AM BST
What you reckon Henry? I don't want to get suckered in but jai looks good value to me even more than I thought he was.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:22 AM BST
I've never been a fan of tvpolls, but tbf they've been very good this week.
They seem to have a pretty representative sample taking their poll for this show.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:23 AM BST
Jai 1st up (nap)
Report Pedz June 4, 2011 1:23 AM BST
Jai is 9/1 at Lads...
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 1:25 AM BST
Let's see some new polls
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:26 AM BST
Not sure there are likely to be many.

Survation don't seem to be bothering
Report Henry VIII June 4, 2011 1:28 AM BST
111 responders - it can be disregarded George.

Are Survey Monkey the same as TVPolls anyway?

TVPolls after Semi2: NewBounce 43%  Jean 17%

Survey Monkey 111 responders: NewBounce 0%  Jean 2%
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:29 AM BST
9/1 is a steal as a trade GB. I've just felt the spoilsport backlash and I have just had the account a few weeks Laugh

I think you ignore the findings of this poll at your peril.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:31 AM BST
Survey Monkey is the polling software tvpolls use.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:34 AM BST
Henry this is the poll Arb linked us to.  Been pretty accurate so far regardless of numbers tho 111 is very low. You work that out yourself?

Oh well no damage done as I can soon lay off jai from the 7/1 I have just topped up at.
Report Henry VIII June 4, 2011 1:34 AM BST
What you reckon Henry? I don't want to get suckered in but jai looks good value to me even more than I thought he was.

I've always kept Jai onside, I like him and I think the public might.

However we can debate whether RP or NB (both on early in the week - lots of time to concentrate on final song) are Cowell's choice but we can say for sure it's not Jai (on late in the week, West End niche singer). So he'll get no favours.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:37 AM BST
true he will have to do it the hard way. But I can see the mail story on the other thread see cowell's influence start to unravel.

The Mail website is a phenomenon in terms of readers never mind the paper.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:45 AM BST
Their post show poll has been supremely accurate.
Wish I'd seen their results for monday.
I wouldn't have done my nuts given their results.


Number of replies is pretty irrelevant if they're a representative sample, which they appear to have.
111 is more than enough.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:46 AM BST
Survation also have a poll I see. Plus a text poll which I've signed up for.
Report Henry VIII June 4, 2011 1:53 AM BST
Number of replies is pretty irrelevant if they're a representative sample, which they appear to have.

But the little bit I've looked into is totally out of sync with their after semi polls which were, as you say, good.

111 is more than enough.

Half of those will be members of this forum who will have voted according to what they want people to think.

111 is rubbish. I remember closely following the TIBB BB polls that used to get a few thousand votes (and proved to be one of the better polls) and the first 100 votes were nothing like the final distribution.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:54 AM BST
Is there a link for the survation poll fll? I used to get emails and phone calls from them for XF. Maybe I used one of the many email addresses i use and then forget the password to Laugh
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:55 AM BST
Tellymix have always been the most accurate polls but none up for this. probably all too short a period for them.
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 1:57 AM BST
The poll is linked to your email.
Go to their site and sign up would be the best method.
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 1:59 AM BST
ok thanks
Report five leaves left June 4, 2011 2:01 AM BST
111 is rubbish

Totally disagree Henry. It's how representative the sample is of the audience as a whole that matters, not the size of the sample.

The sample, who clearly aren't all punters, seems to mirror the audience as a whole pretty closely.


I'd rather have a sample of 100 casual viewers than a poll of 2000 on DS or any other forum.
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 8:22 AM BST
Razy is top of the DS poll fwiw

It looks too close to be any use whatsoever

Like to see a yahoo poll or summat
Report FXDUX June 4, 2011 8:31 AM BST
Struggling to find that poll, GB. Maybe I'm still woozy.

DS can sometimes be right, but I wouldn't remotely follow its guidance. There are a lot of people on there who are deluded.
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 8:40 AM BST
They were obsessed by the two dancers FX

Given Razy will be performing the same old dull shyte from an average slot tonight I think he has no chance

All I will take out of it is that Ronan is doing pretty well (for DS), Jai ok and Les is somehow still popular
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 8:40 AM BST
You must be very woozy if you can't find it btw
Report FXDUX June 4, 2011 8:50 AM BST
Oh ok got it. I went straight to the forums before.

Razy's production values were very high last night. They can easily pull it down a notch to screw him. And as you say, he's only got a few moves; there'll be nothing new on the table.
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 8:53 AM BST
I'll keep an eye on it

Ronan seems to be edging up. You'd expect razy to drop after the forumites have all filled it in
Report George Bailey June 4, 2011 9:08 AM BST
yahoo polls are awful as they allow multi voting if its the one I'm thinking of. Shame as it would be very  accurate I think and annoying they don't tweak it to prevent multi voting.

Tellymix polls are invariably the most accurate on any specials event; none for this yet though I think.

DS I haven't looked at for many months. Unless its changed its polls are usually rubbish because those their are unrepresentative of the GBP..imo.
Report GeorgeBrush June 4, 2011 9:09 AM BST
I agree, witness Razy

That's not to say you can't draw a few things from it.
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