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T.M.O
20 Jan 11 21:36
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Date Joined: 27 Aug 10
| Topic/replies: 36,800 | Blogger: T.M.O's blog
any fans?
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Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:15 AM BST
Judges not said a word yet, but I reckon Haley won the 1st round fofor Tyler.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:21 AM BST
Scotty gets out his guitar for the 2nd song. No idea what the song was though.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:27 AM BST
Lauen singing something from Carie Underwood. Sounds ok. Dreadful dress tho.

Still no judges comments but I'm guessing Tyler gave round 2 to Haley .
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:34 AM BST
The judges speak.

1st round to Scotty, 2nd to Lauren. Both in it to win it.
Report timbucktooth May 25, 2011 1:40 AM BST
Very rushed feel to it all tonight, even the ad breaks are shorter! With  the two of them singing the same ( to me rather boring) musical style, the judges declaring it a draw, and a possible sympathy vote for Lauren´s laryngitis, I am beginning to fear this is closer than my book wants.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 2:00 AM BST
Tears from Lauren and her mum definitely could make it close.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 2:37 AM BST
Rickey.org, votefair and Dial idol all give it as an easy win to Scotty.

Twitter just gives it to Lauren.


Certainly the tears and the song about her mom have made it closer than it would have been otherwise.

Glad I laid off some scotty. Still think he wins though. Dial idol have never been wrong in the final and have Scotty winning easily.
Report timbucktooth May 25, 2011 2:41 AM BST
D.I. still having him clear enough is providing a small bit of reassurance. Surely 10 weeks of building a fan-base while Lauren was flirting with eviction in the bottom 2 or 3 won´t be overturned by one drawn week?  Time to remember all the underlying factors, and NOT TO PANIC!
Report FXDUX May 25, 2011 7:28 AM BST
Drudge Report has a headline reading:

" SOURCE: SCOTTY TOOK NEARLY DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF VOTES OVER RUNNER UP... DEVELOPING... "

Dial Idol has Scotty way ahead of Lauren.

Ker-ching!
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 8:12 AM BST
Typical of fig to pap his pants. [;)]

Loads of voters who went with both to keep Haley out will have reverted to Scotty this week
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:36 AM BST
Any chance of a link?

Isn't the Drudge report a joke site?
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:38 AM BST
What time is the result tonight?   

ps don't want to sit through 2 hours of shyte
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:39 AM BST
Probably about 10 to 3.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:40 AM BST
Cheers Lusky
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:42 AM BST
no problem.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:43 AM BST
dusky lusky [;)]
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:47 AM BST
Last night was only an hour and still very dull.
They make the dullest finals ever on AI.

The result show actually feels more like the final, but they drag that out for 2 hours.
We have the pleasure of U2 performing, plus Tyler Plain. plus Haley and her new single PlainPlainPlain, plus Pia dueting with someone PlainPlainPlainPlain, plus gawd knows what else.

Casey and Lusky back to toture us some more too no doubt
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:48 AM BST
Set your alarm. That all sounds fvcking awful
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:49 AM BST
Dial idol suggests a dull result too.

Gawd knows what this Drudge report is?
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:51 AM BST
Are you seriously hoping for a Lauren win now?

I suggest you have greened up too much
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:51 AM BST
That will be my plan too.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 10:53 AM BST
Still much bigger green Scotty. For now.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:54 AM BST
All I can see is that line on the drudge report homepage, probably made up but still true
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:57 AM BST
The left-leaning press seem incredibly bitter about it being an all-country 'boring' final.

Has it ever been wildly exciting?

Also read an article yesterday that was basically a personal attack on Scotty Laugh
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 11:04 AM BST
Yep, found it now.

Has DEVELOPING at the end, but has yet to be added to.


No idea about whether it's ever been exciting.
The Lambert/Kris final was a dull as fvck, despite Lambert supposedly being the new Freddie Mercury.

As GB2 posted earlier. It's watched mostly by conservatives, so a nice safe dull show is what's called for.
Ratings were up so I doubt FOX will be worried.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 11:06 AM BST
They wanted the new lady gaga or kurt cobain apparently

Might be waiting a bit longer
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 11:36 AM BST
lol yep and might be going the wrong way about it.

These shows are highly unlikely to ever produce a genuine artist, just good karaoke singers.

They cut most of the singers who are a little 'different' at the auditions


There's gap in the market for a show with bands or singers who write their own stuff.
C4 had the orange unsigned show, but tucked it away on a sunday morning.
A similar show given a prime time slot on C4 would have a chance of finding some genuine new talent and could be a ratings winner too.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 11:39 AM BST
..and a decent betting event, as male punters tend to listen to bands or singer songwriters and not Whitney and Mariah.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 11:42 AM BST
The same people seem to be still going on about Pia being robbed, which is a little bizarre to say the least Laugh
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 11:54 AM BST
lol yep, one of the dreariest ballad singers ever to appear on one of these shows.

If she's the future of music I'm Jacob Lusk.
Report FXDUX May 25, 2011 12:21 PM BST
Drudge is fairly credible. It's the 400th most popular website in the world. Not that that necessarily implies credibility.

It's a news aggregation site, not a rumourmill.

Don't know why there's no link.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 12:41 PM BST
500 to lay at 1.2 there if you like fig
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:33 PM BST
Laid at lower GB.

DI is probably right. I just lost a little faith in it when I read the piece over here that you're just as likely to get an engaged tone for an unpopular contestant as a popular one.
That would mean a DI wouldn't work over here.
I suspect it's a different system in the states though as they've never been wrong in a final, but it has to be said way they have been out some weeks this year and previous in previous years.

As for the 'leak' from the Dredge report, I wouldn't bet on that.

We know the polls have considerably understated the Lauren vote.
She's rarely hit double figures on Rickey.org whereas the likes of Pia, Thia and Casey always polled well.
She's still there. They're not.

Votefair had it something like 44% Scotty, 40% Haley, 16% Lauren, last week and we all know who went.

Twitter had Lauren winning 350 to 300 last night on my figures.
Twitter has also been wrong before on this and other shows, but it does look closer than DI are suggesting.

It was a very good closing song from Lauren.
A song about her 'mom' , lots of tears from her and her 'mom', even a hug halfway through her song.
Will play great to the demographic I'd have thought
Whereas Scotty was almost too laid back.

Scotty may well p1ss up, but this isn't one where I'd be wanting to taking 1.1 ish.
With the likes of Stacey or Gino in IAC  I was happy to back at those prices.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:35 PM BST
And I wouldn't be surprised if the Drudge report was just based on the dial idol figures.
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 1:52 PM BST
I'd also like to have them reasonably level so I don't have to sit through the 2 hour show and have an earlyish nightGrin
Report five leaves left May 25, 2011 7:58 PM BST
Virtually level the 2 now.

I've probably thrown away around of £500 profit on Scotty, but I think this could be closer than the market suggests.

GL all tonight. Especially those who have stuck with all their Scotty green and haven't bottled it like me because of some Lauren tears and some dodgy twitter stats.
Report timbucktooth May 25, 2011 8:24 PM BST
Whilst Scotty appeared a worthy fav throughout the series,allowing me (and many/most of you) to build reasonable greens on him, at what I felt were generous prices, last night the balance definitely changed somewhat. Enough for him to lose it? Probably not. However his price now, 1.15, suggests he wins 13 out of every 15 times. This is too short. As such , I, too, have sacrificed a bit of my profit on the likely winner.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 9:23 PM BST
Good time for greening up if anyone else wants it
Report timbucktooth May 25, 2011 10:06 PM BST
1.07? He wins 14 out of every 15? Purely on value,I am quite surprised and almost embarrassed to have Lauren a bigger green than Scotty.
In fact, with the prices where they are and with phone lines closed 15 hours ago, is it insider money? Even if it is I can´t bring myself to back him at 1.07.
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:25 PM BST
Recent backs do have a ITK feel about them. You could get 1.25 earlier today
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:32 PM BST
That's inevitable if you want to make any cash

Even I'm considering greening up
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:32 PM BST
Is the market suspended during the show?
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:40 PM BST
More is matched at short prices than long, this is just what happens
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:40 PM BST
Particularly if someone things they are onto a good thing
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:41 PM BST
thinks* even
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:43 PM BST
I hope the money is right Cool
Report GeorgeBrush May 25, 2011 10:51 PM BST
Can nobody come up with any Lythgoe tweet about only being 3 votes in it, so I can get more on Scotty?
Report Danzaa May 26, 2011 1:24 AM BST
£450 profit if Lauren wins
£500 profit if Scotty wins

Very happy :)
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 1:58 AM BST
One last time. What's the link?
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:00 AM BST
Don't worry. Got it.
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:04 AM BST
What is this ****.
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:14 AM BST
Morgan Freeman singing It's Not Unusual. Surreal
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:32 AM BST
The lovely Carrie Underwood.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:37 AM BST
evening TM
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:39 AM BST
Beyonce's ass looks massive in that.

Doubt she'd have got far in this compo
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:40 AM BST
Does she really have to scream so loud to get someone to make love to her?
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:46 AM BST
If you though that was screaming, listen to this ****
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:48 AM BST
What an awful song.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:48 AM BST
I haven't got the bloody hour wrong have I TM?  Not another hour of this gash to sit through is there? Cry
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:51 AM BST
No, unfortunately I did.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:52 AM BST
result now then?
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:55 AM BST
Steven Tyler singing Dream On first
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:55 AM BST
thank gawd for that

Except rubberlips is gonna sing
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:55 AM BST
God, his voice has gone.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:56 AM BST
Poor version of Casey
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 2:56 AM BST
Brings back memories of Gokey's big scream Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 2:56 AM BST
Dream on that Haley is gonna win Blush
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 3:02 AM BST
Verified by telescope no less
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 3:02 AM BST
What a surprise
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 3:02 AM BST
You could see his vote from outer space
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 3:03 AM BST
A good job well executed

They've done well to make it look like a contest
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 3:03 AM BST
Anyone who layed some of that off deserved it [;)]
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 3:07 AM BST
Great kid and he thoroughly deserves the honour of improving my bank balance
Report TheMadness May 26, 2011 3:23 AM BST
Cheryl Cole announced as sacked on the night of the AI final. Fascinating. Silly
Report squares May 26, 2011 6:38 AM BST
yay
Report melv May 26, 2011 7:57 AM BST
You could see his vote from outer space

I can personally verify that.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 8:06 AM BST
Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 8:21 AM BST
122m votes, but no indication of share
Report five leaves left May 26, 2011 8:53 AM BST
They never give the full results.
I tweeted Lythgoe, but no reply.

wd to those who kept the faith.
I was happy to level up at the prices.

Didn't bother watching and it doesn't look like I missed much.
Just put on the alarm at 3 and saw GB's happy posts, then back to sleep/

A nice win following on from the ESC. I was £70 down on specials this year before that.

Now on course for another good year despite the PC and more HS restrictions.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2011 9:09 AM BST
KatieWeasel Katie Weasel
Rumours that Chezza was sacked for punching L.A Reid when he wouldn't give her a lollipop have not yet been substantiated
1 hour ago
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 9:14 AM BST
And so for BGT

Must come on msn and find out who you're on fig [;)]
Report FXDUX May 26, 2011 9:24 AM BST
Nice little winning streak at the moment. Azerbaijan, Scotty, West Ham being relegated (I bet on losing the FAC final to Liverpool in 2006 too - it softens the blow). With hedges in place on Romney and Pawlenty and that punt on Cain, my tip for the Republican nomination is Rick Perry. If he runs, he wins, imho. And there are rumours that he may run.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2011 10:51 AM BST
I can't tell you GB Silly

Must admit I've still not gone through them all.

Just had a speculative punt on one act so far.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 11:04 AM BST
Catching up with 40 acts will be a pain in the ass like
Report stringerbell May 26, 2011 1:14 PM BST
well done chaps, think you all made lots of money. congratulations....
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 1:37 PM BST
It always puzzles me that someone must have lost the money we won, but we all seemed to agree scotty was a winner

Maybe the HS lost it all?
Report five leaves left May 26, 2011 2:02 PM BST
...or maybe most punters don't read this forum and were all on Pia and Casey
Report stringerbell May 26, 2011 2:12 PM BST
that's the hope fll, long may it stay that way
Report timbucktooth May 26, 2011 2:28 PM BST
Could it be that most of the losers don´t read, and benefit from, the collective wisdom of the forum? The selfless contributions from a dozen or so hardcore shrewdies on here has made all the difference to me winning or losing. Don´t forget that, after each of these shows concludes, numerous ¨lurkers´ post, thanking the Dirty Dozen for their help.


By the way, I don´t like the term ´lurkers´. I prefer to think of the likes of me being ´voyeurs´ and, the Dirty Dozen being ´exhibitionists´.
Report five leaves left May 26, 2011 2:28 PM BST
It clearly is the case.

Many on here were banging on about Azer for Eurovision for weeks.
Their price only moved when the Racing Post (who have a dreadful record on specials) tipped them up.

As, you say nick. Long may it continue.
Report melv May 26, 2011 4:13 PM BST
I made sure I was a small green on Azer purely thanks to this forum I never liked it and do not think it deserved to win. I also laid of my large greens when they came in in order to make sure that the more threatening Azer got in the final the more I won.

I was on the other hand over cautions with Rebbecca and laid more Matt off then i should have. But Figgy is correct; over cautious is the way to win on here.

Italy would have done me though. And you know what? was soon as my missus heard it for the first time in the final she said "I like it; this could could win."

I said "no chance, its jazz, worse than Opera, no youtube hits and anyway my forum would have spotted it if it had a chance."


Now I love it. Also there's a proper artist and musician for you; I think it would have been a very worthy winner. And I would have been stuffed.
Report FXDUX May 26, 2011 4:25 PM BST
I tend to zone in on the winning positions only by running massive hedges on all potential threats. Means that my percentage gain isn't that great as the process is capital intensive, but means that I have the confidence to place all that dosh in the market. In AI I was green on Scotty, Jacob, Casey, Pia, Haley and James.

Obviously, it's better when there are only a few contenders. Eurovision was a bit of a nightmare. I bet very heavily on Azerbaijan at about 10-1 on the Friday/ Saturday, and that gave me surplus green to hedge out at lower odds any risk of loss. I could see this strategy blowing up bigtime next year. Meaning to read through the Eurovision: What Have We Learned thread again.
Report melv May 26, 2011 5:25 PM BST
Must mention if there's anyone i does not know I backed Scooty @ 1.57 without seeing any AI and withpout even seeing Scotty. Just becausue of the strength of consensus on here.

I never laid any off; again because you lot where so convincing. This should not be bragged about. Its not the way to win on here. Always lock in a profit.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 5:33 PM BST
If you'd got a whiff of fig's squeaky bum last night you'd a layed off melv [;)]
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 5:34 PM BST
Alas we may never know how many times Lauren's vote he had.

I'd guess about 60/40 to be generous to her
Report five leaves left May 26, 2011 6:07 PM BST
lol yep, I wimped out.

Had plenty of green to wimp with though Silly

Laid the arse off the likes of Casey, Pia and especially Jacob.
How was he not a 100/1 shot?
ofc laid Lauren too up til the last couple of weeks, but my back price was bigger than the lay price so can't complain.

I'm happy to back at 1.1 but only when I see them getting 2 or 3 or 5 or even 10 x the positive comments of their opponent/s on twitter.
As was the case with someone like Gino or Stacey.

That wasn't the case this time round.

So wimped out, levelled out and zonked out and had an early night.
Report GeorgeBrush May 26, 2011 6:11 PM BST
It's a fair point fig
Report Ashley_Young May 27, 2011 12:30 AM BST
It was sensible to green up given how things played out. That 'moment' Lauren had would have swung it for over here. But the Yanks often go against the judges in the final of AI, we've seen this before even with Simon A trend to remember for the future.
Report Ashley_Young May 27, 2011 12:31 AM BST
full-stop after Simon.
Report melv May 27, 2011 7:47 AM BST
All the judges want to do is make good TV and get millions of phone calls.

They have to always say that its close; whenever; whatever.

But here's the magic; when the TV tells the TV heads of planet TV that its close then; as if by magic it becomes close.

Or so my current research of earthling behaviour finds. Unfortunately I do not always find right.
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