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GeorgeBrush
21 Dec 10 13:43
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Date Joined: 16 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 10,615 | Blogger: GeorgeBrush's blog
Market up, £106 matched

Should be wide open unless Murray finally wins a slam?
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Report George Bailey December 12, 2011 10:40 PM GMT
As for Khan's manager "Hi Mr Tenpercent now that Amir has just been whupped and is about to be humiliated in the SPOTY vote why not give up your place for a woman? Noble gesture and all that. The GBP will know why you are REALLY doing it but it will allow GB to fill his boots in the AO market"  Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 12, 2011 10:42 PM GMT
I would suggest in the email he fills his own boots too Wink
Report johnnyrant December 12, 2011 10:43 PM GMT
It's far from dead, GB2. Test Match Special has a huge and loyal following. Donald's win price should be his price to make the top 3, annie, imho - I think bex has covered the bases on this one. I agree with his view.
Report GeorgeBrush December 12, 2011 10:48 PM GMT
It has little effect other than to eat into the votes of the other 2 golfers. I can certainly see that. Making others better value for the places. Farah (though maybe short enough) Cook maybe, even Greene the only Welsh vote
Report George Bailey December 12, 2011 10:53 PM GMT
Didn't we this same conversation last year over Swann jr?
Report johnnyrant December 12, 2011 11:01 PM GMT
Doubt it, GB2 - wasn't a significant year for English cricket last year. Swann never a contender. There was a theory that if he did something amazing in first Ashes test he might have nicked a place. That was it. What the England test team has achieved this year is far more significant.
Farah, a little known, Somalian-born distance runner vs Cook/Strauss - that's a huge disparity right there in terms of profile. Farah would be a monumental lay for me for top 3 if it wasn't for the 3-way split golf vote which might allow him, with a kind edit, to be placed. But still happy to lay him for top 3 at odds-on.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2011 11:03 PM GMT
The bigger the price difference between mo and rory in the outright the bigger the opposite is happening in the top 3 market. Why? usually in a race you get 1/5th or whatever the odds the first three. Seems odd to me but probably missing something.

.......

Farah backers have given up on the win market as they think they cant beat Cavendish.  It is odd though and I expect that the 2 markets will partly converge at some point although which market moves in which direction is open to conjecture.
Report George Bailey December 12, 2011 11:12 PM GMT
Mo shortening in the o/r methinks. If Arsenal put out a request to the crowd to back him it could be a Giggsy moment. So few votes a half decent ramp/campaign could be enough. Anything on the cycling forums? Couldn't see anything in previous years despite some loons fixing the Guardian (or Times?) poll.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2011 11:37 PM GMT
I think the fact that Jess Ennis could only beat Cavendish by 25k worth of votes when SPOTY was held in her home town of Sheffield (wasnt it 80k and 55k respectively?) and Cavendish was a new kid on the block and not a World Champion means it is very unlikely that Farah can beat Cavendish this time.

Jess is the poster girl of GB athletics too and had more awareness with the GBP than Mo in 2009 than Mo does this year.  Mo's achievements are greater mind, but I know that because I'm a big athletics fan.  Also as an athletics fan I'm also aware of the poor performance in SPOTY of Paula Radcliffe twice (she also failed to make the shortlist when World Champion the year Flintoff won and it was public votes that got you in the shortlist), Phillips Idowu and Christine Ohurugu in recent editions.  I hope he gets the recognition he deserves and makes the podium.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2011 11:47 PM GMT
Dai Greene was beaten in Welsh SPOTY by Chaz Davies fwiw.  Not a good pointer for Mo's chances and certainly not a good pointer for Dai Greene
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2011 11:57 PM GMT
In fact Dai Greene was only 4th behind triathlete Helen Jenkins and Paralympian Nathan StephensShocked

It does highlight once again the importance of the motivation to vote and there's one person in the shortlist who's fans are far more motivated than anyone else.
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:02 AM GMT
Clyde has in spot on as regards the top spot. I do note it's now only new posters that seem to disagree. Could change if Adlington were added of course
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:03 AM GMT
Weird they weren't interested in Warburton etc in those awards?  Was it just who could be bothered to turn up?
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2011 12:07 AM GMT
Warburton wasnt shortlisted GB.  Work that one outCrazy
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:08 AM GMT
No I can't lol. Are they being deliberately obtuse our did the rugby side just refuse to turn up? Laugh
Report George Bailey December 13, 2011 12:09 AM GMT
11/2 cav v farah with 365 seems the value bet to me. had 40 on it. Forecast market on here still suspended?
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:11 AM GMT
Does seem good. You could lay Farah top 2 as a bit of a hedge. No chance of me getting on there though
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:12 AM GMT
lay Farah top 3 I should say. Risky hedge maybe. Back him for 3rd Laugh
Report George Bailey December 13, 2011 12:13 AM GMT
Rory won't make top 3 and clarke vote will be affected by NI/golf split. Mo will be top 3 and cav will win so 11/2 mo beats clarke.
Report George Bailey December 13, 2011 12:16 AM GMT
Cognito ergo sum Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:18 AM GMT
I should stay away from hedging for a while. Had loads of Misha to go vs lay of b2 when versus Janet. She was longer to be eliminated when that b2 was confirmed Laugh
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2011 12:25 AM GMT
If you look back through the history of the award there are 3 people who have won the award twice.....Henry Cooper, Damon Hill and Nigel Mansell. Laugh

The Likes of Bobby Moore, Stephen Redgrave, Seb Coe and Daley Thompson should be fuming
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2011 12:29 AM GMT
Most podium finishes ...5 by Steve Davis ffsShocked
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:39 AM GMT
Pub games should have been banned long ago
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:39 AM GMT
Says a slightly nervous Taylor layer from last year
Report George Bailey December 13, 2011 12:43 AM GMT
Posting on this thread has given me my first enthusiasm for this event this year. usually come to it late. Can see potential value all over the place now. Not sure cav v mo is so good value now but I'm sure I can lay off on here if I want to.
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:47 AM GMT
Hill and Mansell winning twice is chronically embarrassing
Report George Bailey December 13, 2011 12:50 AM GMT
BBC Sports Personality Bypass Award?
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:53 AM GMT
I always laugh heartily when I see a replay of Mansell's reliant robin bouncing down the straight in Australia. Even now Laugh  I was wetting myself at the time. Hill was just the dullest bstard ever. Child of a domineering father
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer December 13, 2011 7:22 AM GMT

Dec 12, 2011 -- 8:14AM, HARRY22 wrote:


You must of asked betfair for a market...it appeared the day after


I didn't ask, betfair just monitor my posts for good ideas.

Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2011 12:27 PM GMT
Loving the all female shortlist for Young SPOTY Laugh
Report Danno December 13, 2011 12:31 PM GMT
Greg Rusedski won for reach the US Open final in 1997 (and not even British).  Murray must be a bit put out to only be trading at 540's having reached all four Slam semi-finals.

Anyway, SPOTY has become the most over-hyped BBC self-congratulating borefest smugathon (with a nod to Children in Need) awards show.   Can't wait for the Doris-the-dinner-lady award for making the sandwiches for the last 90 years at the Barnstaple bowls club.  Probably the first year in my life where I won't make any special effort to watch it.  The only programme that the BBC has ruined even more than the annual Sports Review is A Question of Sport.   The common denominator > Sue Barker.
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:36 PM GMT
You missed Cav then Dan Wink  Tbh it was always a smugathon, and seeing tw@ts like Nigel Mansell and Steve Davies sporting the trophy quite embarrassing. At least we get a proper winner this year. My only complaint would be too many awards
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:37 PM GMT
I agree on Murray. He's sadly unappreciated it seems. He might not even win when he gets his GS. Particularly if it's next year
Report GeorgeBrush December 13, 2011 12:38 PM GMT
I would complain the 3 of the last 4 years have effectively been 'career achievement' awards tbh
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2011 1:20 PM GMT
I dont agree with a lot of the winners, especially the Zara Phillips/Darren Clarke year which was a joke, but I always enjoy the show.
Report annie. December 13, 2011 3:07 PM GMT
Lots again in the paper about donald, far more than cavendish.  And there will be more because donald is playing this week, so from wednesday on there will news of him every day until tuesday and even then there will be news about SPOTY.

Darren Clarke out to 6.6  Laugh
Report annie. December 13, 2011 3:12 PM GMT
If you are thinking of backing donald you had best be quick, his price on here is 27/1 whilst on the high street it is generally 14/1 and some firms 10/1. 

And no, I am not ramping, I am VERY  satisfied by my large green and will not lay off unless he goes very short  Happy
Report bexley December 13, 2011 3:20 PM GMT
From a quick scan of Oddschecker I'd say he was generally 16/1 and some firms 20/1. Glass half full/empty situation Annie?
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2011 3:46 PM GMT
It works the other way round annie.  If you want the 4/7 on Cavendish and you can get it (unlikely as its SJ and VC) snap it up because it likely won't last since he's 7 points shorter on here.  Everyone else is a bigger price on here.  That doesnt mean they'll shorten because on Betfair the market tends towards 100%.  Clarke is 11/4 in a place, McIlroy is 15/2 in a place and Farah is 8/1 in a place.

I can see Donald is available at 10/1 in a place on the high street but am not aware of any other firm on the high street that is going less than 16/1. 

To quote...whilst on the high street it is generally 14/1 and some firms 10/1  Unless you can enlighten me further that is technically a ramp although not a very good one.
Report bexley December 13, 2011 5:57 PM GMT
Bit of trumpet blowing perhaps but ploughed through the first few pages of this to find the first Cavendish 'shout'

From 1st June by myself:

Update to the Bexley portfolio as I try to head of all possible challengers for this year. As you may know my main bet is Jessica Ennis who I have backed at all rates from 10's dowwn to 7's. Latest addition:

Mark Cavedish 50/1

Rule changes to the tour de France this year on the face of it make it much easier for him to win the Green jersey this year, something he has been a 3 times runner up in. Cycling has become greater profile since GB's success in the last Olympics and I reckon his finally achieving this goal will get a fair amount of publicity and recognition.

I don't really see him as a serious threat for winner but if Murray, Haye and the golfers don't win any of their events this summer, people like Cavendish could very easily come into the top 3 reckoning and be a great trade for the winner market Cool


Oh and Luke btw from 29th May:

I also have Luke Donald onboard I forgot to say. I doubt he will win the Open but unlike most of the other golfing types, Luke seems popular and the cries of "Luuuuuke" just give him an extra appeal and awareness factor other golfers dont have. If all these other contenders fail (Murray, Haye etc) then ending the year as world number one may even see him sneak a place without a major win.

Just in case the Donald fans still believe I somehow don't rate him

Soe other comments thrown in there that turned out less than stellar but hey I'm not perfect
Report bexley December 13, 2011 6:01 PM GMT
Mark Cavendish even, damn wish I could type. Maybe as I got Azerbaijan wrong on the ESC thread, this is a lucky omen Laugh

hehe the post after my Cav comment, happy typos or what. Laugh  He aint won yet though I suppose
Report five leaves left December 13, 2011 6:09 PM GMT
He's my biggest green, but my lays on him don't look great.

Mark Cavendish  25.66  £93.43  £2,397.77 £2,304.34 ShockedSad

Fortunatley I've laid over 30 of them.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer December 14, 2011 8:56 AM GMT
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8954258/British-Olympic-Association-considering-a-boycott-of-BBCs-all-male-Sports-Personality-of-the-Year.html

The explanation is simple.  They just don't fancy a night out in Salford and who can blame them?
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 9:02 AM GMT
Time for Khan to step in. Or rather out
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:17 AM GMT
Complete idiots imo. "Glaring omissions from the list" Its a list of 10 ffs

So what do we do stick in the taekwondo champ they keep going on about and leave out the world golf #1?  This is SPOTY not some spot the most obscure worthy female competition.

They would make the list have a woman this year, next year the furore would be over a paralympian so we slot them in, whatever next. Does my nut in big time.
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:18 AM GMT
I agree Bex, but from a betting perspective this is by the by.  I may take more Adlington just in case
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:24 AM GMT
Most people think the list is fair even most women I'd wager.

Its these PC 'worthies' that are making a fuss over it and they are just out of touch with reality. There is no reason for anyone in the list to be replaced. The award is what, 8 days away, the BBC position is clear on this and no-one is being added at this late stage.
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:26 AM GMT
..and no-one can step down imo. The nomination process is complete its not as if Khan had to put himself forward and can choose to withdraw.
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:26 AM GMT
I doubt 'most' women think it is fair tbh. And the Beeb will still have nagging doubts. All they needed to do was have a 12 person shortlist bringing in Adlington and Button
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:27 AM GMT
Khan could certainly offer to withdraw publically though. Great press and then it's up to the BBC
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:35 AM GMT
All they needed to do was have a 12 person shortlist bringing in Adlington and Button


No that would be a tacit admission the process was wrong for this year and would show the BBC bowing to outside pressure, something its loathe to do, particularly since the Labour deputy leader stuck her oar in. Soon as that happened I should have realised nothing was going to change.

and women sports fans, the ones likely to vote on the night, they would be happy with the list. Your average 'no clue about sports female' yeh she would claim to be outraged Wink
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:36 AM GMT
What would be wrong with this tacit admission when they've already admitted fault and will change it for next year?
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:37 AM GMT
Khan thinks he was hard done by in that verdict. You honestly think he would say hang on lets withdraw from SPOTY because of it. Its not even on his radar Crazy
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:37 AM GMT
It is now Wink
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:38 AM GMT
Because they have said what they are going to do - look at it for next year
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:39 AM GMT
So they've already admitted it was wrong this year
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:39 AM GMT
you think his manager will give a seconds thought about an e-mail from some lunatic even in the highly unlikely scenario that he even got to read it. Yeah right
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:40 AM GMT
Oh, he's read it alright.
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:40 AM GMT
No they haven't they have said they will look at it next year, is that hard to understand?
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:40 AM GMT
Sounds like a tacit admission tome Bex
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:41 AM GMT
to me
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:42 AM GMT
Why do i wind you up so much? Laugh
Report bexley December 14, 2011 10:45 AM GMT
GB I don't even think you believe half the stuff you put on here, thats what winds me up Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:50 AM GMT
Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 10:51 AM GMT
You'd better believe it Wink  I remember similar skepticism a couple of years ago when I was on to the Man U stadium announcer to remind people to vote for Giggs. He was only too happy to talk to me Cool
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 11:05 AM GMT
The BOC threat seems designed to spark change this year rather than next of course
Report bexley December 14, 2011 11:06 AM GMT
ok GB I'll leave it to others to decide for themselves whether you are backing Adlington or laying her Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 11:08 AM GMT
Not much to gain laying her at 1000. Couple of quid?
Report bexley December 14, 2011 11:13 AM GMT
Hundreds matched on Adlington at 1000 not a bad job laying someone not even nominated with 8 days to go if you have the bank Wink
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 11:23 AM GMT
I'm sure you know I'm not laying her Bex
Report five leaves left December 14, 2011 11:25 AM GMT
You sound like one of the loons who thought they'd bring Amelia back GB...
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 11:30 AM GMT
Luaf iirc?  I think he was on about ao wasn't he. Dunno if he backed Amelia. He deserved to. Mind you it was all about name changing and group members swapping!  £109 matched on Ads at 1000 btw. I think I have £20 of that. As a back Cool
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 11:32 AM GMT
Nobody on the forum was actually advocating backed Amelia. Should have told us that summat was afoot
Report GeorgeBrush December 14, 2011 11:32 AM GMT
backing*
Report ahorsewithnoname December 14, 2011 11:34 AM GMT
F/C market now activated.
Report annie. December 15, 2011 1:03 PM GMT
Darren Clarke is now 7.2, he will probably be in double figures this time next week  - can't wait to back him then  Happy

Do you think we should agree to keep all discussions on this thread only and redirect others to it?
Report GeorgeBrush December 15, 2011 1:18 PM GMT
The Cav layers can have their own threads for me Wink
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 9:52 AM GMT
5live have been featuring each of the spoty nominees. This morning was Clarke, (the only one who hasn't bothered to be interviewed Nicky Campbell informed us). Instead they had Andrew Coulthart who said after a few pleasantries that the golfers won't win because there's too many of them Laugh
Report five leaves left December 20, 2011 9:55 AM GMT
Too early for him. He'd have been out on the lash no doubt.

He'll be getting my vote as Chelsee did.
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 9:57 AM GMT
The interview the morning after the open win where he was green was mentioned. Not a vote winner for me Wink
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer December 20, 2011 10:37 AM GMT

Dec 20, 2011 -- 3:57AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


The interview the morning after the open win where he was green was mentioned. Not a vote winner for me


I said exactly the same about Freddie as he climbed off the bus in the year he won.

Report five leaves left December 20, 2011 10:44 AM GMT
It's a posh sport so getting p1ssed up after winning isn't seen as a negative.

It's only those footballng oiks who have to stick to the orange juice
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 20, 2011 10:59 AM GMT
Alex... Freddie was 1.03.  In that year they allowed Phone, text and red button voting.  Ellen Macarthur who came second actually beat him in the phone vote
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer December 20, 2011 11:03 AM GMT

Dec 20, 2011 -- 4:59AM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:


Alex... Freddie was 1.03.

Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer December 20, 2011 11:04 AM GMT
Thanks.  I wasn't dashing to back Clarke on a theory that p1ss artists win SPOTY tbh Wink
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 11:04 AM GMT
Dunno about that CB, but I'd have said Freddie didn't have any serious competition. It was only an off the cuff statement anyway. I don't particularly like the guy (Clarke) Grin
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 20, 2011 11:10 AM GMT
I wonder how today's pc UK would have taken to James Hunt and Barry Sheene who make Flintoff and Clarke look like Mother Theresa!!
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 11:33 AM GMT
They had a certain chic, as did George Best of course. IT isn't a negative in the UK, I just don't like Clarke Wink
Report the muppet moans December 20, 2011 11:36 AM GMT
Annie - you don't seem to have mentioned Donalds Dead Dad yet - in fact no-one has
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 20, 2011 11:44 AM GMT
Clarke is quite liked rather than much loved and the Open win doesn't put a fitting end to a glorious career like it would with Monty either, and I think the general feeling is he got a bit lucky, but good luck to him, and he deserves to be on the shortlist, not he now deserves further recognition.  He's had a decent career without ever being one of the leading lights.  The fact that he likes a drink is irrelevant at best.  Does he deserve recognition for overcoming the death of his wife five years ago which is the only reason to give him a hope of winning?  I think that's only a small part and that vote came out in 2006, the year his wife died, when a heavy odds on but beaten fave.

The question for me is whether there's enough of a vote in there to beat Farah and McIlroy who are both clearly more deserving, and mebbe one of the others at a push.
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 11:49 AM GMT
Yeah you can't write off top 3, as much as I'd like to. I do probably see him beating the other golfers. Rory seems keen to downplay his chance at any opportunity and is asking people to vote for Cav, while Donald will only appeal to the hardcore golfers
Report Cider December 20, 2011 11:50 AM GMT
Massive credit for holding his bottle in what was extremely likely to be his last chance to win the big one. Played magnificent golf throughout the week. He would get my vote regardless of betting. The essense of the award should be about showing true strength of personality for which for me he did. Mo would be next on my list of most deserving.
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 11:52 AM GMT
Mo did it without a hipflask too! Wink
Report Cider December 20, 2011 11:53 AM GMT
Of course for betting I couldn't care less having won a bundle on Giggs who was least deserving.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 20, 2011 11:56 AM GMT
Giggs was deserving of recognition imo and played a huge part in what pulled him to victory.
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 11:58 AM GMT
There should have been a way of making a lifetime achievement award more prominent and shuffling people like Giggs into that category. Even McCoy maybe, although perhaps he was welcome last year as it was so weak
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 20, 2011 11:59 AM GMT
Whether he was deserving is a point that polarised opinions of course as it did with Phil Taylor last year.
Report Cider December 20, 2011 12:01 PM GMT
Possibly but this loyalty thing is a crock of sh1t. If M United were a mid table team unable to compete on £ he would have gone. Must have been so hard to stay with a club winning championships every year, having settled in Cheshire, on buckets of cash!
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2011 12:02 PM GMT
Spot on. Loyalty only applies to the top clubs. Loyalty in the past only really applied as players were often stuck with one club! Grin I don't think anyone else really wanted Kevin Ball Laugh
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