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alun2005
18 Dec 10 17:37
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Date Joined: 11 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 46,076 | Blogger: alun2005's blog
A new name will enter the pantheon of World Champion all-time greats this evening. 

More likely, the actual best dancer won't win, as has happened regularly in recent years.

Or won't maybe even make the final two, as happened with 80 marks out of a possible 80 for Legs Lisa a few years back.

I'm assuming from the bookies prices that Matt Baker must have a very big lead in the likely phone voting. Has any front-runner ever lost the SCD final before?
Pause Switch to Standard View ***** The SCD 2010 World Championship...
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Report Screw Loose December 18, 2010 11:02 PM GMT
Exactly Dizzy.

People post opinions/info and its up to everyone how they interpret it, and othh's info is no different. Just because Matt didnt win I'd be stupid to stick my fingers in my ears and decide I'm never going to take any future inside info into account ever again, because that would ignore all the times I've factored it in and made money.

For that reason I hope he does so again.
Report Shrew D December 18, 2010 11:03 PM GMT
It's like Francome having a go at Big Mac today for following Pricewise. There's just no satisfaction in collecting if your bet is not based on your own opinion or instinct (imo of course).

I for one wouldn't trust a faceless forum poster who I don't know from adam!
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:03 PM GMT
True, it's been another weekend of data to add to our list of possibilities. One 'impregnable' lead turned over, another close
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:04 PM GMT
Anyone know if/when we get the votes on SCD? I'd have thought it was a requirement to release them.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:04 PM GMT
...And actually Figgy it was the whole Rebecca experience that reaffirmed my 'safety first' policy in hedging on Kara at 2s!
Report lucas1970 December 18, 2010 11:05 PM GMT
The psychology of this punter said the market didn't speak of anything but a close final...
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:06 PM GMT
If they publish the votes we would know if othh was right..he could well have been...all starts afresh on the night..loads on twitter shifting their votes.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:07 PM GMT
Unfortunately not GB2 - bizarrely it's BBC's policy not to divulge the info...
Report roach December 18, 2010 11:08 PM GMT
Strange old final... as per last weekend's X Factor, it never quite took off. I had a bigger green on Matt of the two, but having had them as my 2 outright picks + top male/female respectively at the start of the competition, it's been a great series and can't complain. By far my favourite Specials market of the year, and this has been my best ever 'final book'! Well done all the regulars who have contributed over the past 12 weeks. Cracking banter as ever Happy
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:09 PM GMT
That's shocking Dizzy...after all the scandals...why do they release SPOTY and not this...makes no sense...if I can be ars*d I will email them and ask....even cowell is shrewd enough to know he has to release them to retain any credibility..even tho they prove what a manipulating twaat he is Laugh
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:10 PM GMT
Wonder if BBC is subject to FOI requests..should be but suspect not.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:10 PM GMT
Well done Roach - I'll have to get on here earlier next year.  Normally do well on SCD - but made a complete Horlicks of it this year by opposing the front two at the start.

Still, lucky to come out with just a small loss I guess!  Didn't really know much about Matt or Kara at the start, so a bit of a steer from the forumites would probably have done me good...
Report Henry VIII December 18, 2010 11:11 PM GMT
Their lawyers will have some reason as to why it doesn't fall under FOI but I bet it's bull and I bet they've never been challenged.
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:11 PM GMT
The one that surprised me and many on here, was the crap Corry star (Craig?)disappearing after a major ramp and appearing at Blackpool

Very odd. And expensive Laugh
Report TheMadness December 18, 2010 11:12 PM GMT
They got rid of some of the best choroegraphers or saddled them with people who can't dance. Some of the choices of music this year were bizarre as well
Report TheMadness December 18, 2010 11:13 PM GMT
The strangest result I've ever seen is Donal and Colleen ending up in the bottom 2 with that Liberty X girl still there.
Report five leaves left December 18, 2010 11:13 PM GMT
Shrew- I base my decisions on all available info.
Twitter, Polls, voting leaks from good sources and my own sense of who does well in these shows.
That strikes me as the best way.

It doesn't mean I'll make the same decision as someone with the same info though.
GB was all in on Joe last year, while I was still backing Stacey and Olly Laugh
Report Shrew D December 18, 2010 11:14 PM GMT
Aliona lost it for Matt imo. Kara and Artem's chemistry won it for them.

Am I gay to admit I said 'Ahhhh' on more than one occasion tonight? Confused
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:15 PM GMT
Colleen from top to nowhere in one week, with an injury, was desperately odd
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:16 PM GMT
I had Craig GB and the mystery was how he made it to Blackpool at all Laugh

He had to play on the "home town" tosh just to squeeze in..he was awful.
Report Shrew D December 18, 2010 11:16 PM GMT
five leaves left 18 Dec 10 23:13
Shrew- I base my decisions on all available info.
Twitter, Polls, voting leaks from good sources and my own sense of who does well in these shows.
That strikes me as the best way.
-------

Everyone does it their own way. Personally, I always like to use my own judgement and blame myself for my failures.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:17 PM GMT
Laugh Yes, totally gay...

But you're right - I think that Aliona was a bit of a liability (albeit a very attractive liability!) and that show dance was possibly the most bizarre ever seen on Strictly.

If the voting was close until then, I think that could have swung it firmly in Kara's favour.
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:18 PM GMT
Course he was GB, but there was a massive ramp for him while lines were open. Weird, that's all I can say

Was only laying for elim, wasn't asking for much [;)]
Report five leaves left December 18, 2010 11:21 PM GMT
He wasn't ramped GB, he was mauled by the judges in the most harsh way that I've ever seen on the show.

Like you I was amazed he didn't survive after it. (if I'm thinking of the same thing)
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:22 PM GMT
Think he's disappeared altogether now...what became of him? Still gliding around a darkened and silent winter ballroom no doubt Sad
Report gresty241 December 18, 2010 11:22 PM GMT
Exactly fll - decisions are made on all available info which includes gut instinct, matt was already a big winner imo before othh's info, i'd already backed him at 6.0 early doors, i never layed my smaller kara green until tonight....unfortunatly it wasn't to be so it's onto spoty.
ps
looking forward to othh's next piece of information
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:23 PM GMT
That's it fig.  But also there was a dew-eyed VT ramp about him reaching Blackpool

We can hardly put Matt in that and the Colleen category [;)]
Report TheMadness December 19, 2010 12:10 AM GMT
Didn't Alesha tell him he was delusional? Laugh
Report bunnyman December 19, 2010 10:38 AM GMT
For me a loss was inevitable on this market I think, because I struggle to see a time in the series where I felt Kara represented fair value and was therefore backable.  This is a much tougher market than XF because XF attracts a lot of casual money.  I'm not sure that my £ is any shrewder than the average £ in SCD.
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 10:42 AM GMT
I think you do yourself a disservice Bunny...  It was a tough one this time around.

Better luck next time.  Keep Dancing!
Report squares December 19, 2010 10:52 AM GMT
Totally agree with you regards the price Bunny.  I backed her at the beginning because I had always found her down to earth, likeable, etc., but when she started off with that dreadful Miss Whiplash routine I thought WTF have I done here?

Then all the people I spoke to who didn't like her, the main reason seemed to be that she was always sh@gging her colleagues Laugh

I've been happy with my books throughout, and had particularly great value in the Top Female market, and over the past week could have guaranteed a win but the odds never quite reached what I was looking for and was happy to stand by that.  Not a bad series overall and no probs with a final night hit.
Report Cider December 19, 2010 11:10 AM GMT
Yep Kara was never backable for the OR for me, one suspects the polling was very close in the end, especially the 3rd place cut off. She may have been value at some point in the crazy trading yesterday but if she was I missed it.

My reflection will be that I took too big of a position on a result that TPTB and the judges clearly didn't want, and had been canvassing against for a number of weeks.
Report five leaves left December 19, 2010 11:58 AM GMT
An odd year for me.
I think I've played the market nearly perfectly.
Always taking the value on the likes of Matt before the show started. Scott at double figures after the group dance and then Pam at double figures on numerous occasions and like squares even backed Kara at decent prices before the show started, but lost faith for the same reasons.
Also layed the arse of Michelle and Jimi.

The last 2 years I've played it terribly til late on and yet ended up winning significantly more than this year.
Report squares December 19, 2010 12:01 PM GMT
oh yes, Michelle - OR and Top Female Grin
Report timbuctooth November 12, 2012 9:55 PM GMT
Someone wanted this?
Report five leaves left November 13, 2012 12:42 PM GMT
Interesting read Tim.
I still don't know why twitter was so out with regards to Pam.
She wasn't exactly twitter friendly.
The thing it did show was Matt leading by a long way going into the show, as he had the previous couple of weeks too iirc, yet as the final progressed Pam and Kara overtook him leaving him a poor 3rd.
I left a massive green behind on Pam, but it was about half the size of the one I had going into the final.
I'd love to know the percentages and how close the 3 were at the 1st freeze. I suspect very close.
Report TheMadness November 13, 2012 1:29 PM GMT
I wonder if in amongst all this stuff with Savile, McAlpine, calls for change, DG's leaving with full pay and other heads rolling, we can demand they start revealing the voting percentages
Report five leaves left November 13, 2012 1:58 PM GMT
You'd like to think so TM, but I wouldn't hold my breath
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 9:52 AM GMT
If you are about squares and you have the records to hand, do you know what were the lowest and highest prices matched in the final?
Report squares November 14, 2012 9:53 AM GMT
they're obv not on here.  Sure I saw them y'day so I must have them here with me.  Hang on a mo.
Report squares November 14, 2012 9:54 AM GMT
Matt
last odds matched 3.7
shortest 1.67
longest 6.8

Kara
1.34
1.3
8.2


those will be for the whole series tho.
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 9:55 AM GMT
Cheers mate...and Pam?
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 9:57 AM GMT
Pam surely matched 100+ ?
Report squares November 14, 2012 9:57 AM GMT
at freeze b4 Pam left

Matt
final odds matched 3.55
shortest 1.67
longest 6.8

Kara
2.242
1.73
8.2

Pam
3.2
2.68
95.0 (110.0 for 50p)
Report squares November 14, 2012 9:58 AM GMT
sry, ff, Kara 2.42
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 9:58 AM GMT
Cheers. I thought she went below 3 at one stage. To decent money too iirc
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 9:59 AM GMT
Shortest 2.68 he says
Report squares November 14, 2012 9:59 AM GMT
at freeze b4 Pam left

Matt
final odds matched 3.55
shortest 1.67
longest 6.8

Kara
2.42
1.73
8.2

Pam
3.2
2.68
95.0 (110.0 for 50p)
Report squares November 14, 2012 10:00 AM GMT
Yep, 3.2 final odds matched b4 the freeze, 2.68 shortest so must have been during the final.
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 10:00 AM GMT
Yes, I know GB Silly
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:01 AM GMT
You're still asleep Grin
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:01 AM GMT
What are you doing out of bed anyway ? Silly
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 10:02 AM GMT
I'm not out of bed yet Grin, but was asleep by 1am.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:03 AM GMT
Too much info. I bet it reeks
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:03 AM GMT
Did you ever buy a washing machine with the LM winnings like you promised?
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 10:04 AM GMT
Laugh Nope. I still use a bucket and washboard.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:07 AM GMT
I see Vaughany was matched at 1000. Be funny if he was that late steamer
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:07 AM GMT
My only back was at 500
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 10:11 AM GMT
I've been wondering who had the money @ 1000.

I had 28 pence @ 850. Which I guess is rounded upto a £1 matched in the table.
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 10:44 AM GMT
Damn!
I've just noticed I paid 56p in PC this week. The buffer I had has been eaten away with a good run on the XF elims and a nice win in the American election.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:46 AM GMT
What is the qualification for 40% PC?
Report hemsby November 14, 2012 10:50 AM GMT
I think the weird matches on things at enormous prices can be explained by this "cash out" option.Especially when using a small screen like an iPhone ,it only takes a small deviation and you've accidentally pressed it.I tend to log out of BF now when I'm checking the markets to avoid this.I suppose its not a bad idea to have a couple of quid sitting on the ceiling prices to take advantage of some poor souls misfortune.
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 10:54 AM GMT
I'm not sure of the actual figures, but it's down to your total charges percentage.
All I know is that if/when I reach 250K lifetime winnings that I'll be paying 60%
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:54 AM GMT
Not applicable to Vaughan surely?  £6 traded at 500, people genuinely thought that was the price
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 10:55 AM GMT
Is it not 40 or 60 when you reached 250k?   How is that determined?
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:01 AM GMT
Here you go.
Once you reach 250K lifetimes winnings.

Lifetime commission generated to gross profits ratio Applicable Premium Charge Rate
< 5% 60%
5% - 10% 50%
10%+ 40%

I'm always under 5% on my winning weeks. Which are most weeks, thankfully
2.45% this week. Though ofc I actually paid them more than that.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:06 AM GMT
Ok, safe until I reach 250k then. Which could be a good few years
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
Until they change the rules OC Plain
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
The way I read it, once you reach 250K, the minimum you'll pay is 40%.
I'm ok for awhile too. Unless ofc they move the goalposts again and reduce that 250K threshold.
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
lol snap
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
It'll happen
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
Dunno how you've managed to get enough on HS to build a buffer. When I hit PC my % was only 12. Gone up now OC Plain
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:24 AM GMT
So you'd pay 40% then.

I built a buffer up partly because I haven't had a great year. Though things have picked up now with a good run on the XF elims and decent books on the OR for XF, SCD and IAC.
I dabbled with the horses early on in the year to try and churn some money through the system. I came out very slightly on top and what was better is that I was way down on betfair, but nicely up on the purple place.

My biggest winning show was Eurovision and again I was red on the winner on here, but a big win on the HS.
That was offset by a nice win in the Top 10 market on here, so it probably didn't build up much of a buffer overall.

And ofc I had my biggest loss ever in an OR market on that tw@t who won AI. It wasn't huge, but increased my buffer again.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:26 AM GMT
If you were on 5% commission you've barely ever lost on a single market
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:28 AM GMT
True. Not many.
One year none at all if we're talking OR markets.
On weekly markets I've won on about 70%
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:30 AM GMT
It just looks like they were trying to get rid of all the market makers. Which seems incredibly odd.  I'd love to go over the figures with them
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:31 AM GMT
Do they have their own marketmakers now?  Real ones, rather than robots
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:33 AM GMT
This year I've won on the 2 CBB's, DOI, Eurovision, BGT, The Voice a very small win, BB a very small loss Shocked and AI a big loss for me.
I should win XF, SCD and IAC the way things are looking....oh and american XF. Though only small.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:34 AM GMT
Up to 16% commission now, so still quite a long way off building a buffer
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:37 AM GMT
Not sure if they have their own market makers. I very much doubt it. I think they employ some swedish firm for the football markets, but I don't think they give a damn about the smaller markets like specials.
Report GeorgeBrush November 14, 2012 11:38 AM GMT
No.  They must take far less in commission on them than before
Report five leaves left November 14, 2012 11:40 AM GMT
yep, but I guess compared with football or horse racing, or some of the other major sports, specials is absolutely tiny for them. Even when there was much more liquidity
Report timbuctooth November 14, 2012 1:04 PM GMT
hemsby 14 Nov 12 10:50 
I think the weird matches on things at enormous prices can be explained by this "cash out" option.Especially when using a small screen like an iPhone ,it only takes a small deviation and you've accidentally pressed it.I tend to log out of BF now when I'm checking the markets to avoid this

Hemsby, are you on Beta? If so, there is an `x` on the right-hand side of the `cash out` bar. Click that, it`ll vanish.
Report hemsby November 14, 2012 1:12 PM GMT
Sorry tim....I don't know what Beta is Blush.Sometimes when I check a market on my iPhone the cash out option is there,and sometimes it's not Confused.Just checked it again and it's not there ATM.
Report hemsby November 14, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
Just checked SPOTY market and the cash out feature is there,but its not there on the IAC market.There was no x by the right hand side of the cash out on SPOTY though .
Report timbuctooth November 14, 2012 1:31 PM GMT
Sorry, not `Beta` but `New` Beta refers to the forum. I can`t get the `old` site, so I don`t know what`s on that screen. On the new one, there is an `x`, but maybe not on iphones?
Report hemsby November 14, 2012 1:35 PM GMT
There doesn't appear to be an "x" on the iPhone/iPad.I think I'll have to stick to my system of being logged out when checking markets.....appreciate you taking the time to try to help though Happy
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
at freeze b4 Pam left

Matt
final odds matched 3.55
shortest 1.67
longest 6.8

Kara
2.242
1.73
8.2

Pam
3.2
2.68
95.0 (110.0 for 50p)
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2012 12:22 PM GMT
Christ Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2012 12:22 PM GMT
The market unbelievable suggestible
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:24 PM GMT
Kara was 2.42 at the 1st freeze

Squares made a mistake in his 1st post Devil
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2012 12:29 PM GMT
It shows the market will slavishly follow the LB in the final

Correctly in the end, but certainly not at first
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:34 PM GMT
DVO the bet then at the price?
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:38 PM GMT
I'm not so sure. I think people believed Pam could win. After a dip mid series, she picked up again towards the end. She was also never B2.
DVO has had two B2's and I don't think any seriously believes she can win.
Having said that Lisa Snowden was well backed in her final after receiving a perfect 80 in the final, despite having been b2 3x
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:39 PM GMT
anyone*
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2012 12:39 PM GMT
Not suggesting DVO would be 2.whatever

Sub 10 very possibly
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:39 PM GMT
Apart from Hammy maybe Wink
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2012 12:40 PM GMT
I wish Hammy wasn't on Tate. He looks doomed Cry
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:40 PM GMT
Laugh
Report five leaves left December 18, 2012 12:42 PM GMT
I guess the likelihood is that Louis will drift in the final, but as Wiggins showed, I'm not great at predicting these things
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