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Pirate Army
13 Dec 09 20:37
Date Joined: 25 Oct 02
| Topic/replies: 139 | Blogger: Pirate Army's blog
Early thoughts?
Pause Switch to Standard View ****SPOTY 2010****
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Report stringerbell December 17, 2010 1:16 PM GMT
there is a heavy, concerted gamble currently going on on mr mccoy.

gtl - you still confident he wont win?
Report GymTanLaundry December 17, 2010 1:21 PM GMT
never said he wouldn't!!

just think williams is huge value.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer December 17, 2010 1:29 PM GMT
there is a heavy, concerted gamble currently going on on mr mccoy.

This could be the Bob Nudd effect recurring 19 years later.  I wonder what the Racing Post will print in the morning.  The right phone number to call perhaps?
Report stringerbell December 17, 2010 1:31 PM GMT
wonder whether they will tip him..
Report attitude adjuster December 17, 2010 1:34 PM GMT
i will be voting for tony.

my mum will probably vote 3 or 4 times for him...she was in tears when he won the National Love

my aunts,uncles and cousins  will vote for him as well.

they don't know who Amy Williams is.

i think it's his moment and he'll win on the bridle.

I think we owe a lot to him on here...for many, horse racing was our first love before we became involved with This Morning polls,deadlocks,figleafs twits,The Kitten's county swimmimg stats and layprofessional's daily work ethic Happy
Report stringerbell December 17, 2010 1:37 PM GMT

i never vote on these things and i am going to on sunday, regardless of my book
Report doorman99 December 17, 2010 2:04 PM GMT
Swanny up the swanny now, no chance, phil incredibly poor last night. Leaves Mccoy, Mcdowell, Amy. Cert bet Amy top 3 and massive 3.7 roughly.
Report seanvice December 17, 2010 2:55 PM GMT
I dont think AP deserves it at all, I think the whole racing campaign for him has been really cringe. 'vote ap handicap' gimmie a break ffs. The racing hiarachy seems to think that him getting it would make a massive difference to racing and the industry. It wont mean didly squat.

Don't get more wrong, I love racing, I respect McCoy, I know he gets up early everyday, puts in 100% everyday, has to make sacrafices, cant eat what he wants ect.

The fact is though, being a jockey is by far the least skillful profession in the list -  Taylor, McDowell ect have more sporting talent in their little finger that McCoy has in his whole body.

Fully expect to get shot down, but you aint changing my mind on this one Mischief
Report GeorgeBrush December 17, 2010 3:03 PM GMT
I'm on the fence (pun) sean, but surely a 'lifetime achievement' award would easily deal with this, and the Giggs situation last year

Why they haven't introduced it is beyond me
Report squares December 17, 2010 3:54 PM GMT
I take it you're not a rider, sean
Report Dizzy42 December 17, 2010 4:08 PM GMT
I'm with you GB - McCoy should be honoured with a lifetime achievement award.  But he hasn't done anything spectacular this year to justify winning it for his 2010 success, the obvious National win aside (and I'd still rather have Ruby riding round Aintree over McCoy any day!).

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to see AP win, but surely SPOTY is about recognising an outstanding achievement or performance in that particular year?  That's why I think this might be a difficult sell to the GBP on Sunday - do they even understand / care enough about racing to give a sh!t about number of champion jockey titles etc.?  Just not convinced.

But the opposition is falling down by the wayside with every passing minute.  Swann, forget it, Taylor, no chance...  The two golfers are the most credible threat and they'll split the vote.  Based on the tide of opinion on here, I think I'll trade out of my McCoy lay (at 1.81) and lump it all on Williams top three finish at 5/2.

Clearly I'm full of sh!t and have no courage behind my convictions! Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 17, 2010 4:22 PM GMT
Even Taylor I could begrudgingly accept might merit a lifetime award for services to pub games [;)]
Report Shrew D December 17, 2010 4:23 PM GMT
Not sure how much this will affect things but Stephen Fry has put his support behind Tom Daley.

Posted earlier:

'stephenfry Stephen Fry
My vote for BBC #SPoTY would go to @TomDaley1994 Great achievements this year, fine sportsman.
3 hours ago'

He has over 2m followers on twitter but I'm not certain how many of them would be SPOTY voters.

Just thought it was worth a mention though! [:)]
Report shrewdbury December 17, 2010 4:26 PM GMT
Stephen Fry goes for the young man in swimming trunks..... Laugh
Report Dizzy42 December 17, 2010 4:30 PM GMT
Hilarious to see the bookies ramping McCoy again by claiming there's been another plunge, hence the price cuts.  Nothing to do with the poor form of Swann and Taylor then!

Anyway, had to post a couple of comments from racing 'fans' in reply to this article on the RP website.  Hilarious, if not necessarily representative...

"I think AP probably deserves the award but i'm now heartily fed up of all the jingoistic hot air being put about to get everyone involved in racing phoning in a vote for him. I'm beyond caring."

"Who gives a fiddlers who wins it its the biggest load o'carp ever to appear on tv typically english old school ffs many people will struggle over christmas to provide for the family and many will be in serious debt afterwards they'll not be voting no lol"

"Should be called the BBC Lack of Personality Award especially if the butcher McCoy wins it, a right characterless, boring old phart."

Such a generous, kind-spirited lot, us racing fans! Laugh
Report attitude adjuster December 17, 2010 4:41 PM GMT
You can set your watch by the SPOTY award

every year the jolly gets months of this ...

I've often thought this is why Andy Murray always throws it,when he reaches the final of a Grand Slam Happy
Report stringerbell December 17, 2010 4:44 PM GMT

but there is a serious point there, the possibility of a very low vote.

could be viewed as opening up the game, or handing it to the orchestrated campaign

dizzy, interesting about racing fans not being bothered to vote, but my point remains, who can muster a concerted enough campaign to beat him, given niether of the golfers or swann or taylor have done anything on bbc this year.

williams and ennis the only logical dangers to me....

agree with loads of forumites that the 5/2 on williams to place is an absolute maximum bet.....
Report stringerbell December 17, 2010 4:44 PM GMT
Report Dizzy42 December 17, 2010 4:54 PM GMT
Yep, with you Nick, the 'value' (in so much as it was) in laying McCoy has gone now as the opposition continues to fall away.  Difficult to see where the real threat or challenge will come from, I agree, so as a McCoy 'sceptic' I am happily stepping aside to seek a better punt elsewhere!  Gone in again on Amy at 5/2...

Comparatively, you've got to say that Matt to win SCD, knowing OTHH info, is a much better value 8/11 shot than McCoy though, for sure!
Report aka December 17, 2010 5:21 PM GMT
As a racing fan, I am hoping the orchestrated approach will bring McCoy the recognition he deserves through this award.

I watched the BBC preview programme earlier in the week. I was a bit deflated to see that the dominant images shown in the link to McCoy were, first, a whip raised in the air, second, McCoy riding a horse vigorously and using the whip, and third, chaos among horses at one of the Aintree fences. Such images perhaps not great in terms of winning over any floating voters who are not racing fans.

The better news from that programme, I thought, was that the other contenders appeared to offer comparatively little. The Irish golfer seemed to have a bit of life about him, if personality comes into who wins this award. The female bobsleigh gold medallist probably stood out as the one most likely to appeal to an early evening TV audience. Hurtling down the ice on your belly is one of those eccentric sports I can see appealing to the British psyche on the night.

Hopefully, the orchestrated vote will be enough to get McCoy home in front, though I have no idea about what factors ultimately determine the outcome in this kind of contest.
Report GymTanLaundry December 17, 2010 5:31 PM GMT
clare balding on ATR seems to think 75,000 votes will win it for AP.

utter nonsense!!
Report Dizzy42 December 17, 2010 5:54 PM GMT
Good post aka - and good points raised too...  I think those of us a bit too close to racing often forget the impact it has on outsiders when getting a close up view of the sport.  During the Breeders Cup I had given my wife the whole Zenyatta story in the build up to the Classic - and she was absolutely horrified (as was I to be fair) to see the poor horse beaten up in the straight.  Similarly at the Becher Chase Day at Aintree recently, I took my family for a close up view of a fence and my oldest son asked what the 'whacking' sound was - when he realised it was the whip he burst into tears.

Now you can dismiss these as namby pampy sentiments from soft hearted souls - but I do think it's indicative of why the general public are perhaps still ambivalent towards racing.  McCoy, while a great jockey, is not actually the most natural or gifted horseman riding.  He gets horses to win for him by galvanising them and getting them to run for him, often by brute strength.  Even McCoy's best ever ride, by his own account, on Wichita Lineman at the Cheltenham Festival in 2009, is a perfect example of this.  It's not necessarily a pretty sight for non-purists.

And there is absolutely no chance the 75k votes will be enough.  I think that the campaign should deliver around that amount - maybe as much as 100k.  But to win he has to appeal beyond the confines of racing.  So does he have a personality then - a cheeky chappy image like Dettori?!  No, sadly he is one of the dourest faces in the weighing room!  Next to the infectious humour and broad grin of G-Mac or pretty smiling face of Amy W I fear that McCoy's charms will be lost on the general public...
Report stu December 17, 2010 6:14 PM GMT
I was a bit deflated to see that the dominant images shown in the link to McCoy were, first, a whip raised in the air,

Aka - the thing is that it is that image that probably best represents him and his sport. If we are at all sensitive about that then that's probably nothing to what the average viewer thinks about it.
Report George Bailey December 17, 2010 8:13 PM GMT
I think with McCoy there is the danger that the BBC could deliberately give him a low profile/negative showing. I think they are genuinely concerned about the organised campaign though have not openly criticised it and the racing industry know they are treading a thin line.

Re whether it is an advantage going on first with lines open I'm not sure. No evidence that this has applied in other specials. In fact the evidence from XF seems to be that most people wait till they have seen everything before they make their (one and only?) vote. On that basis I would say a late slot is better.
Report Dizzy42 December 17, 2010 8:22 PM GMT
And in support of that GB, in the last two years both Hoy and Giggs benefited from later slots in the programme, if my memory serves me correctly.

I meant to pick Nick up on this before...  Although the phone lines open at the start, I do think that most people will watch the review of all the candidates for the award before picking up the phone to vote.

That said, obviously if the phone numbers are announced early enough it does open it up to multiple votes from a concerted campaign like McCoy's.
Report George Bailey December 17, 2010 8:41 PM GMT
Don't know about others but for me the mccoy ramp has introduced a variable that has spoilt this year as a betting opportunity.  I hope for that reason alone the BBC bites back and stitches him up.
Report clouded leopard December 18, 2010 9:57 AM GMT
George Bailey 17 Dec 10 20:13
I think with McCoy there is the danger that the BBC could deliberately give him a low profile/negative showing. I think they are genuinely concerned about the organised campaign though have not openly criticised it and the racing industry know they are treading a thin line.

what makes you think they are concerned about this ?
what makes you think they would deliberately do that if they were concerned ?
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 10:19 AM GMT
They are concerned as this racing campaign has sailed close to the wind.  It comes very close to contravening BBC guidelines.  I know for a fact that RFC were warned about this...
Report stringerbell December 18, 2010 10:33 AM GMT
there was a piece in the guardian chaps a couple of days ago in this very matter - i cant find it, but gb is right, the thinking is the campaign is coming perilously close to contravening the rules, never mind the spirit of the event. to counter that, mccoy has been in one of the few sporting highlights of the year ON the BEEB whereas the others havent.

it is hard to assess imo - hw racing will be portrayed on the night

and thanks for your views on placement gb and dizzy, most interesting....
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:10 AM GMT
What dizzy and nick said clouded. The beeb have been ruthless in the past with such camapigns e.g. the fisherman campaign. Really this one is no different imo.

Throw in that mccoy would be another "lieftime" winner like giggs and another reason why bbc won't want him.

I think the mccoy ramp smacks of desparation and rather sad to see the racing industry reduced to this.

In a fair run race mccoy would still have a fair chance on previous form given opinion polls and his previous 3rd place.
Report howsyourlucknow December 18, 2010 2:27 PM GMT
Attention George Bailey -

Dear George, I have not seen many polls with decent samples for this event. You mention that "in a fair run race mccoy would have a fair chance given opinion polls" - can i ask which polls you are referring to which I must have missed? Are we just talking about the Guardian poll here?
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 2:48 PM GMT
Yes the guardian is the main one.  It is usually very reliable except the cavendish fanatics pile in every year it least I hope so or at 100s+ he's the bet of all time Laugh

Ignoring cav the poll has named top 3 in past 2 years and this year they are: mccoy, ennis, mcdowell. Swann not far behind but I don't fancy him in this now.

The times poll was also very accurate (hoy literally spot on to .1% I think). This year they have some twitter poll but you have to subscribe to get results I guess..anyone done this??

I have done some other measures but they are a bit all over the place. Like I said above in any typical year him leading gdn poll would make him fav for me but this year with ramp could be a shoo in..soon find out.
Report DickyM December 18, 2010 3:03 PM GMT
Can anyone explain the RTE Irish spoty market ? paddies go 2/5 GMAC with McCoy 8/1 4th fave

"The Sports Person of the Year nominees are: Katie Taylor, Graeme McDowell, Grainne Murphy, Tony McCoy, Lar Corbett, Paddy Barnes, Tommy Bowe, Derval O’Rourke, and Rory McIlroy.

In the Team Of The Year category, the nominees are: Irish Mens Senior Boxing Team, Cork Senior Football Team, Republic Of Ireland U-17 Womens Soccer Team, Dublin Ladies Football Team, Shamrock Rovers, Tipperary Senior Hurlers, Irish Mens U-23 Cross Country Team, Wexford Camogie Team.

RTE’s sports journalists, editorial staff and broadcasters will select both award winners and the winners will be announced at a live ceremony onWednesday 22nd December."
Report Asparagus Man December 18, 2010 3:18 PM GMT
There is a piece in The Times critical of the McCoy 'campaign' and supporting GMac today.

The twitter poll is specific to sportsmen that have twitter accounts.
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 3:25 PM GMT
Bleeeding greedy Murdoch charging for his site.

I asked same question re RTE spoty market. Both mccoy amd mcdowell are ulstermen. It looks to me like the Irish haven't bought into the mccoy hype which says a lot given their love of racing.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 3:27 PM GMT
I have been wondering exactly the same thing Dicky M.  This demonstrates two things for me - firstly, that any perceived regional vote for McCoy will almost certainly be topped by that for G-Mac, and secondly, that G-Mac's achievements in 2010 far outweigh that of McCoy's.  As discussed elsewhere, this really should be an award for the year rather than a lifetime achievement award. 

Interestingly, a golfer has won this award three times in the last 10 years (Harrington on each occasion, but once significantly in a Ryder Cup year), while a jockey has won once - Barry Geraghty, in the year that he landed the Grand National.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 3:40 PM GMT
Latest poll for McCoy on RP website - 77% think that McCoy will win SPOTY, 23% say no...

So that's almost one in four racing fans that won't be voting for him! Grin
Report DickyM December 18, 2010 3:41 PM GMT
I see the bbc are giving the lifetime award to David Beckham this year. Completely ridiculous.
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 3:46 PM GMT
Yep, should be McCoy [;)]
Report stu December 18, 2010 6:10 PM GMT
Grin George, oh the irony.
Report bunnyman December 18, 2010 6:28 PM GMT
Don't know about others but for me the mccoy ramp has introduced a variable that has spoilt this year as a betting opportunity.  I hope for that reason alone the BBC bites back and stitches him up.

If he only just wins the bbc are in a spot, as it will be clear that the campaign made the difference and determined the winner.  Much better for the bbc if he wins by a mile and they can say the campaign was immaterial. If there is to be any editorial bias (which I frankly doubt) it is likely to favour McCoy imo.
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 6:28 PM GMT
One thing's for sure - if McCoy doesn't win this year his best hope is to keep riding until 4,000 winners to get his lifetime achievement award!
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 6:30 PM GMT
Bunny - if the editorial does favour McCoy, it'll be the first time they have featured racing in this programme for more than 60 seconds in my lifetime.

That will be the most telling factor IMO.
Report bunnyman December 18, 2010 6:37 PM GMT
Dizzy have you seen the preview show?  It was on in the week and repeated today.  McCoy's vt was one of if not the strongest imo.  As a non racing man I was very impressed.  They really got across the personal risk, the injuries, the sacrifices etc.
Report stringerbell December 18, 2010 6:52 PM GMT
ah look, who will they ramp over him?

the golfers? unlikely - uspga and ryder cup on sky
taylor - sky
swann - sky
haye, cavendish - all sky

only the athletes....

i hear what dizzy says about the powers that be not liking racing, but at least his major achievement of the year was in one of the beeb's crown jewels...

i'd be really surprised if they didnt give him some real attention, and the preview show corroborates that theory....

he'll probably win

cant bring myself to go in heavily again though at 1.6
Report kenners December 18, 2010 6:53 PM GMT
hi - does anyone know where I can find the numbers of votes etc for previous SPOTY?

Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 6:59 PM GMT
To be honest, no I haven't had a chance to see the preview show.  If they are giving racing proper backing for once, then fair play.  The GN is a flagship sporting event for the Beeb, so you're probably right.  It is still in their interests that it goes to one of 'their' sports (in the loosest possible term).

Nick - I agree that Taylor, Swann, Haye, Cavendish, Daly all have no chance.  The 1-2-3 will be between McCoy, the golfers and the females.  If there was only one golfer he'd probably win - but with the vote split between the two the path is clear enough for McCoy in a weak year.  Overall I think you're right - but still don't make him an odds on chance!

Kenners - most of the info for recent years is included above on previous pages...
Report kenners December 18, 2010 7:02 PM GMT
cheers Dizzy I found this on a previous page

Ryan Giggs (29.4% 151,842 votes)
Jenson Button (18.74% - 96,770)
Jessica Ennis (15.58% - 80,469)
Mark Cavendish (55,960)
Beth Tweddle (38,907)
Tom Daley (36,929)
Andy Murray (19,936)
Andrew Strauss (17,237)
David Haye (13,916)
Phillips Idowu (4,507)
Report ihatehwb December 18, 2010 7:30 PM GMT
i was completely against mcdowells chances originally.  However one thing that keeps being said is how the golfing vote will be split.  I disagree with this as I don't see how anyone votes for Westwood.  McDowell still doesn't win but not because of the split golfing vote imo.
Report Shrew D December 18, 2010 9:00 PM GMT
Westwood backs McCoy.

Report Asparagus Man December 18, 2010 10:04 PM GMT
McCoy into 1.55 already Shocked Could be seeing 1.3's IR if it goes on like this
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:30 PM GMT
Interestingly McCoy backs Westwood too!
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:32 PM GMT
Never ask a jockey for horse tips etc
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:34 PM GMT
I wouldn't rule out taylor for a place Dizzy.

How widespread was the giggs ramp last year? I thought it was just an announcement to the 70k at the home game that weekend...could have been enough to win it on its own.
Report GeorgeBrush December 18, 2010 11:34 PM GMT
Quite prevalent on here [;)]
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:36 PM GMT
Surrey voted on mass for him....the ultimate regional vote Laugh
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:36 PM GMT
We caught wind of it a good few days before - it was definitely an orchestrated campaign by the Man U fan base, albeit far more subtle and underground than McCoy's.

I remember the price tumbling.  Jumped the bandwagon at 8s - but there was clearly something afoot.
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:36 PM GMT
en masse even..unless giggs is a catholic?
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:40 PM GMT
Taylor for a place is the big danger for Williams I think...  G-Mac surely has to make the frame - and McCoy likewise must be a shoo-in even if he doesn't win.

That just leaves one place up for grabs.  I thought that the value was with Amy at 11/4, 5/2.  I can't see two golfers in the placings - and surely the rest are just making up the numbers?  Ennis perhaps, but lacks any novelty after her third place last year.
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:44 PM GMT
Be interesting to see if the old faithful guardian poll holds up again (ignoring cav); mccoy, ennis, mcdowell..could be right again
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:45 PM GMT
Yes, I saw that on one of your earlier posts - quite an impressive record.
Report stringerbell December 18, 2010 11:47 PM GMT
gb, who you see as the likely winner

sorry if you have already said

smarting over my appalling trading on scd - amateurish stuff
Report Dizzy42 December 18, 2010 11:50 PM GMT
At least this time we can't BOTH be wrong about SPOTY, Nick! Laugh
Report gresty241 December 18, 2010 11:52 PM GMT
certainly wouldn't be suprised to see it mcoy, ennis, gmac George....personally i still favour williams to make the frame over ennis
Report George Bailey December 18, 2010 11:56 PM GMT
Not sure Nick will post something tomorrow when I have done more number crunching...suspect I should have gone in on mccoy when guardian poll came out but I can still see him getting turned over..ennis my biggest green but instinct says she had her chance last year but could be good odds for a surprise place. Williams seems a leap of faith to me tho she could go close I guess.

Was looking out for you tonight but you seemed quiet..might have been able to have offered some advice (here's me sounding like I know something Laugh)
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 12:01 AM GMT
More bookie ramping - you've got to start worrying when this happens! Grin

BOOKMAKERS are preparing for the biggest ever BBC Sports Personality Of The Year payout should Tony McCoy receive the award on Sunday.

McCoy is as short as 8-15 with Totesport to become the first jockey to win the BBC prize in its 56-year history and layers are preparing for a six-figure payout.

Racing has thrown its support behind the 15-time champion jockey and punters have latched onto the tide of support with William Hill reporting a "wholesale gamble" on McCoy.

Hills spokesman Graham Sharpe said: "This year's award has really struck a chord with punters and with the racing industry getting behind McCoy's cause we have seen a wholesale gamble.

"If he does win we face a six figure hammering, but as Tony is such a great ambassador for racing, and therefore betting, we won't be unhappy to pay out."

Sharpe also revealed that the bookmaker had taken its largest bet in Sports Personality history with one punter staking £7,000 on McCoy at evens.
Report George Bailey December 19, 2010 12:06 AM GMT
"six figure pay out"...£100k big deal.

How does anyone get £7k on at HS on these markets?

I said ennis a "surprise" for a place but just noticed she's come right in in price. Maybe not value now. I had her at 5s and 7s.
Report gresty241 December 19, 2010 12:13 AM GMT
in 2009 billies made £91.5m profit in the six months to 30 June, down from £111.1m a year earlier.....100k is just loose change
Report George Bailey December 19, 2010 12:16 AM GMT
If they let some of the shrewdies on here bet up to £7000 rather than £7 their profits wouldn't be as healthy Laugh
Report George Bailey December 19, 2010 12:40 AM GMT
Anyone see McDowell on soccer am? How'd he do? Brave soccerette there!
Report paddletoe December 19, 2010 4:22 AM GMT
I would not have the foggiest clue who is value at the odds to win the bbc spotty but i find it very odd that AP Mc Coy can be such a favourite when the odds on the irish equivalent, rte sports personality of the year sees Mc Coy as 8/1 fourth favourite while Graeme Mc Dowell is a 2/5 poke.

Voting is different for theese two awards sponsored by each countries national broadcaster with the rte award being decided by a panel of well known sporting figures but the big difference in the odds seems very stark.
Report paddletoe December 19, 2010 4:29 AM GMT
As a personal preference i would vote for Mc Coy. I would say he has carried more horses over the winning line that would never have won under any other pilot than any jockey in the history of horse racing.

I also share the opinion of those who refuse to accept darts as a bona fide sport.
Report The Vig December 19, 2010 7:36 AM GMT
McCoy most deserving bloke in the field by a long stretch, but I cant back at 1.6s, it's just not value IMO. I am thinking of laying McCoy but havent pulled the trigger yet as he could well trend lower on a strong VT made up of decades of thrills and spills!
Report stringerbell December 19, 2010 8:12 AM GMT
ah gb, the night was a disaster, i would have looked to you for advice but i was at a dinner. i initially backed kara but i changed my mind after the othh advice, and then as the hour approached i started to doubt myself. tbh i hadnt followed it strongly so i was relying more on other people's knowledge. but when i escaped to see how things were going matt was 2.6, pretty early on, and one quick look at the forum told me that pam was the one, so i saved on her.....i'm afraid the whole thing was a bit of a disaster, no-one's fault but myself, poorly researched, trying to opportunisticly make a quick buck. doesnt happen that way.

re tonight got on mccoy at evens and saved on williams. backed williams for a place. only conceivable danger to me is mcdowell. and ennis could be the one to be placed over williams, though pwrsonally i doubt it...

hope last night went great for you....
Report GeorgeBrush December 19, 2010 9:04 AM GMT
Well I stuck to my guns, didn't trade a cent, and ended up with a nice loser Blush

I think your tactics were better than mine, unfortunately you just backed the wrong one to turn Matt over
Report gresty241 December 19, 2010 9:58 AM GMT
unlucky nick, i put my kara green on matt but it wasn't to be, i blame no one not even myself, if every decision i made was correct i'd be a very rich man, it happens, kara was a deserved winner but i was thinking popularity contest. Good luck on spoty i'm hoping for williams but realistically only for a place, mcoy winning will be a small win along with some of the others, also i've been backing and laying in the top 3 market which has left me some nice small greens either way (except daly) Happy
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 10:49 AM GMT
Sorry Nick - hope you didn't get burned too badly.

Not that it helps now, but I find it's less painful losing when it's your judgement rather than someone else's.  You seem a shrewd enough judge yourself, so don't be too swayed by others on here - myself included!

Good luck tonight with SPOTY - hope you make back some of your Matt winnings (preferably on Williams placed!). Laugh
Report stringerbell December 19, 2010 11:49 AM GMT
i know dizzy, i trust my judgement 99 per cent of the time, and win some lose some, but i was very naive this time, not just in listening to other advice (which i'm sure was sound) but just i not balancing my books...poor trading, if i carried on like that i'd be finished in a few months...
but it was borne out of ignorance really as i havent really watched the programme, and i think that's the lesson learned, only trade when you are confident you have all the facts at your disposal. logical really.

actually meant gb 2, not gb, but sorry to hear you lost gb - hopefully wasnt too painful...

re tonight, pretty confident in the williams bet. if you save on an ennis place, i would say it will be hard to lose cash.

and as the market suggests, looks like the only real threat to mccoy is mcdowell

then it's kauto star at evens, and leave trading alone until the new year
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 12:00 PM GMT
That's exactly what I've done.  The McCoy bet looked too precarious in the end - not just swimming against the tide, it became an avalanche with the campaign in the last few days...  So I'm back to neutral on him, with my main bets on Williams to be placed at 11/4 and 5/2 (if by some bizarre chance she actually wins I've got some big prices on that too), with Ennis as a place saver at 9/2.

Looking increasingly like a McCoy - McDowell - Williams / Ennis 1-2-3 to me.  I know that goes against everything I've been arguing on here - but sometimes you just have to know when to admit defeat! Grin
Report ihatehwb December 19, 2010 12:10 PM GMT
I struggle to see how you only have good prices on this.  I suppose everyone does indeed win on Betfair.
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 12:14 PM GMT
Only have good prices on what?  None of the above bets (other than my lay on McCoy at 1.81, got out at 1.77) were on Betfair.

Why is that difficult to understand?  The 11/4 and 5/2 on Williams were widely available throughout this week (although admittedly they've gone now), while my Ennis bet was a few weeks back.

I've always found that it's easy to form a decent book if you shop around rather than back blindly here.
Report gresty241 December 19, 2010 12:18 PM GMT
5/2 on williams to place was available yesterday and the 11/4 only a few days ago, ennis was 7/2 at a couple of places also yesterday with mcoy bobbing between 1.8-2.25 for the last few weeks. Laddies were offering 16/1 around a week ago with three places at 1/5 odds
Report gresty241 December 19, 2010 12:18 PM GMT
16/1 on amy that is
Report stringerbell December 19, 2010 2:36 PM GMT
be a little more trusting of human nature ihatehwb

i agree on the likely 1-2-3 dizzy
Report The Vig December 19, 2010 2:50 PM GMT
Laid McCoy @ 1.51, and planning to lay again later!
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 2:50 PM GMT
Especially as we just took a hammering on SCD last night! Sad
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 2:56 PM GMT
If he gets any shorter, I may seriously be tempted to go back in and lay again.  The price is just silly for a jockey, campaign or no campaign.

Listening to the non-sporting coverage today on mainstream media (i.e. not R5 live, Talksport, and outside of the sporting pages), McCoy gets little or no mention.

He might be the sportsman of choice for armchair enthusiasts - but I have yet to see any evidence that his appeal (or even awareness) reaches beyond that.

The key question is therefore does it need to?  Based on last year's figures, possibly not - but with no X Factor, a larger viewing audience, everyone stuck inside due to the snow etc., appealing to the casual viewer I think will be essential.
Report Cider December 19, 2010 4:52 PM GMT
McDowell is a good lay for top3 imo.

Not a household name, NI vote split, golf vote split. Winning the Ryder Cup is not a big deal any more and most will see it as a team. Limited coverage of the us open.
Report ReaseHeath December 19, 2010 4:56 PM GMT
That bird who comes down side of mountain on a tea tray is the value  now - very personable, attractive, will rock up in a killer dress - those with a passing interest in sport but withdrawal symptoms from XFactor and SCD might vote for her.
Report Asparagus Man December 19, 2010 6:38 PM GMT
Some proper money in this market now - could be a very interesting evening
Report Pirate Army December 19, 2010 6:41 PM GMT
Amy has been bouncing off 16 for days - she can't seem to get any lower for some reason.
Report Dizzy42 December 19, 2010 6:45 PM GMT
The interesting money has been in the top three market.  Suggests a strong show but not enough to win...
Report iron cat December 19, 2010 6:58 PM GMT
Ennis the value imo
Report johnnyrant December 20, 2010 4:49 AM GMT
Forgive me GB for resurrecting these posts but it's one of the few occasions when I've called one right over you Grin
As Kryton used to say on Red Dwarf, 'Permission to go into smug mode'.
Got 80-1 and 66-1 as McCoy was on the run-in on Don't Push It, about to win GN. Layed off some at a lot shorter but a nice 4 figure return which makes up for calling it wrong with Matt, and opposing Kara late on which reduced my SCD series winnings to peanuts.

johnnyrant 05 Aug 10 10:50  

The Racing Post has a circulation of over 60,000 and racing correspondents across the board on all Nationals will be telling readers to vote for McCoy.
This wouldn't be such a blatant lifetime achievement award as Giggs cos whereas Giggs did precisely nil in 2009, which made his win a mockery, McCoy rode the winner of the biggest horse race in the world.
On the night you need to coalesce middle England. McCoy can achieve this cos it won't just be racing fans who appreciate his achievement and deserving of the award, general sports fans will too, along with getting the housewife's vote.

johnnyrant 06 Sep 10 18:03  

Ryder Cup, you'd expect to be team of the year if they beat the US. Not sure it will yield any individual challengers. It all points to McCoy to me.

johnnyrant 17 Nov 10 10:44  

It wouldn't be a lifetime achievement award the way Giggs was, Asparagus. Giggs did nothing last year apart from mostly keeping Utd's bench warm. McCoy was champion jckey this year, yet again. The GN was the one glittering jewel missing from McCoy's record-breaking CV. He won the GN - the most famous horse race of all. The one big race that enter's the every man's psyche.  GN is BBC; Taylor's darts is Sky. This is one key element. Also in McCoy's favour is that he is not just reliant on horse racing fans' votes. He will get the housewives' vote, the middle England vote given the semblance of a decent edit on the night which seems to me at least, a near certainty.

johnnyrant 04 Oct 10 16:13  

I still expect McCoy to beat him. It wasn't a thrilling 'McDowell wins Ryder Cup' moment. A damp squib actually with Mahan conceding the putt.
They'll win team of the year.

GeorgeBrush 04 Oct 10 17:33  

A default winner replaced by a real one I think tbh jr

johnnyrant 04 Oct 10 17:52  

no, not at all GB. McDowell can't take the credit for RC victory. It's also a Sky event. McCoy will get the big push on the night and far better placed to get the Beeb vote. He deserves it far more than McDowell.

Pirate Army 04 Oct 10 18:34  

Northern Irish vote split as well now.

GeorgeBrush 04 Oct 10 19:10  

Irrelevant now there is a 'deserving' vote I suspect.

The housewives decide this year again with no xf clash

johnnyrant 04 Oct 10 19:20  

McCoy will get the deserving vote, GB - he will get the Beeb housewives' vote ahead of McDowell.

GeorgeBrush 04 Oct 10 20:14  

  Cmon JR
Report stu December 20, 2010 11:47 AM GMT
Well done (Big 'ed). Silly
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2010 3:52 PM GMT
Lol jr

Well done. I came out with a win in the end. Very small Laugh

Yep, I was surprised by the lack of reaction to McDowell's achievements. Fortunately it become obvious he was unlikely to overturn the campaign and lays on him and half the others turned it around.

Still a very poor spoty for me, usually pays for Christmas!
Report George Bailey December 20, 2010 7:01 PM GMT
Well done johnnyrant; that's what I call gambling...taking the big odds literally on the run earns my respect anyway.
Report attitude adjuster December 20, 2010 8:31 PM GMT
quality jr...has to be the tip of the year

will make your trip all the more fun Happy
Report johnnyrant December 21, 2010 1:20 AM GMT
Thanks guys. Hope you all achieved some SPOTY profit overall.
Look forward to regaining the Specials threads with you all soon - with DOI and SYTYCD set to return, here's to a profitable 2011 - and not forgetting my new Specials fave - the Eurovision Song Contest (after Lena's triumph in Oslo) Grin
Report five leaves left December 21, 2010 8:57 AM GMT
Lena Love

Just read this. n1 Jr
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