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Darren Lamb
11 Dec 09 14:37
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Date Joined: 26 Jan 07
| Topic/replies: 3,429 | Blogger: Darren Lamb's blog
http://www.nwemail.co.uk/sport/never_mind_the_belgians__here_come_the_welsh_1_649446?referrerPath=sport/
Pause Switch to Standard View The Welsh are coming (SPOTY)!
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Report curious-cat December 11, 2009 2:42 PM GMT
this is the influential ' North West Evening Mail ' :D
Report curious-cat December 11, 2009 2:45 PM GMT
'Im still backing Berlin golden girl Jessica Ennis at 5/1, as my real winner cyclist Mark Cavendish after his Tour de France heroics is out at 20/1 and has seemingly no chance.'
Report Darren Lamb December 11, 2009 2:47 PM GMT
THE Welsh are coming! Lock up your leeks and hide away your daffodils, the men from the valleys are coming to take back what they see as theirs.

The BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award is presented on Sunday and one man is carrying the hopes of the entire Welsh nation.

So watch out Jenson Button, be ready Jessica Ennis, because Ryan Giggs is here.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
On the night there will be more votes cast from Sheffield than the whole of Wales imho.
Report Darren Lamb December 11, 2009 3:28 PM GMT
^

that might be true; what about manchester etc.?
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2009 3:41 PM GMT
It's a huge day for Sheffield, it's not a big day for Manchester or for Wales. The big event for Manchester and Wales this weekend is XF.
Report Darren Lamb December 11, 2009 5:30 PM GMT
i agree ennis has a massive chance, but so does giggs for me.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2009 6:24 PM GMT
3 horse race with Button as the fave like the market suggests imo....major surpise for me if anyone else comes close. It would be a 2 horse race if it werent in Sheffield imo. The fact that it is and XF is on at the same time makes Jess a real contender.

How many people will vote for Giggs considering he's done nothing of note all year and how many people will vote for Jessica considering it's in Sheffield we'll find out on the night.
Report Darren Lamb December 12, 2009 3:02 AM GMT
giggs,'done nothing of note', current player of the year.

button has no chance, this is between ennis and giggs.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 8:04 AM GMT
Ignoring the fact that winning the PFA Player voting takes place in January and February so is based on 2008 and that winning the PFA award before has never been any reason to get nominated for SPOTY in the past, and also ignoring the fact that the PFA Fans Player was won overwhelmingly by Gerrard who also won the FWA. Giggs wasn't even Man Utd's supporters Player of the year.

In respect of this prestigious award scoring 3/4 goals and starting around half his clubs matches is nothing of note.
Report bunnyman December 12, 2009 9:04 AM GMT
When you put it like that Clydebank it doesn't look great, but I suspect the VT will paint a more positive picture and there is loads of positive press for him today.

oh - and remember the last time the Manchester public got the chance to vote for one of their legends and the upset that caused? ;)

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40752000/jpg/_40752541_bezwin_203.jpg
Report attitude adjuster December 12, 2009 9:09 AM GMT
I see Giggs as the perfect anti-candidate this year...he really means something to people,unlike
many of the others who few have heard off.

He will swivel his hips and leave the field behind like a bewildered full back.

When i oppose CB on this i usually lose out,so thankfully not playing for big stakes :)
Report Darren Lamb December 12, 2009 9:41 AM GMT
CLYDEBANK29 12 Dec 09:04
Ignoring the fact that winning the PFA Player voting takes place in January and February so is based on 2008 and that winning the PFA award before has never been any reason to get nominated for SPOTY in the past, and also ignoring the fact that the PFA Fans Player was won overwhelmingly by Gerrard who also won the FWA. Giggs wasn't even Man Utd's supporters Player of the year.

In respect of this prestigious award scoring 3/4 goals and starting around half his clubs matches is nothing of note.


seething at the prospect of giggs winning.

i believe gerrard won the football writers player of the year.

giggs was voted for by fellow pros.

and for the record, i went through the stats for 09 (in another thread), giggs has appeared in around 39 games this year (make it 40 tonight), starting around 60% to 70%.

two-horsre race.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 10:52 AM GMT
aa I'm not opposing Giggs. I'm green on the front 3 in the market and am on Button and Ennis for top 3.

I'm not seething about anything...there's a massive thread with lots of Giggs ramping. No need for individuals to throw their toys out of their pram if someone mentions that there are obvious negatives to his inclusion imho.
Report Baggers December 12, 2009 10:54 AM GMT
So a footballer who starts 80% of the games for his club should be heralded as teh best sportsman for 2009 because he is old and has stayed at one club?

Nonsense, he only got 11 nominations out of 30 from the sports writers (2 from Wales I think) in a quiet year, any other year wouldn't have got a mention
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 11:03 AM GMT
ftr..Journalists sportsman and sportswoman of the year (awards this week I think) were as follows

Women... Ennis, Tweddle, Taylor
Men...Button, Strauss, Idowu
Team...Womens cricket team
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 11:13 AM GMT
bunnyman 12 Dec 10:04

When you put it like that Clydebank it doesn't look great, but I suspect the VT will paint a more positive picture and there is loads of positive press for him today.

oh - and remember the last time the Manchester public got the chance to vote for one of their legends and the upset that caused?

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40752000/jpg/_40752541_bezwin_203.jpg

..................

Man Utd (and England) fans had their chance to vote for Wayne Rooney in 2004 when he was by far England's player of the tournament in the 2004 European Championships. He finished 4th or 5th of 5
Report shrewdbury December 12, 2009 11:54 AM GMT
It is an interesting point about Rooney that.
Report misha the russian December 12, 2009 11:59 AM GMT
Rooney finished 3rd
Report shrewdbury December 12, 2009 11:59 AM GMT
Still, obviously a lot of Man United fans didn't vote for him.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 12:04 PM GMT
Flintoff finished 3rd not Rooney
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 12:05 PM GMT
Rooney and Khan were 4th and 5th but no idea who was 4th and who was 5th.

It was a very strong year though with Kelly Holmes and Matt Pinsent first and second
Report Cider December 12, 2009 12:07 PM GMT
As always, these competitions have a different dynamic each year.

The Giggs vote will be seen by many of those that vote for as a career 'reward' rather than achievements in a single tournament. This is also how the BBC presented his case on the SPOTY special.
Report shrewdbury December 12, 2009 12:07 PM GMT
Similarly for Gerrard - not all fans of a club will vote for their player?
Report TheMadness December 12, 2009 12:13 PM GMT
There's more sentimentality behind Giggs than there would have been with Rooney, and 2004 was an Olympic year and Holmes must have destroyed the field in the vote. But I still don't see Giggs beating Button.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 12:16 PM GMT
I've no doubt Giggs is more liked and respected than Rooney. How many people will vote on his lifetime achievements rather than his year's achievements is yet to be seen as no one has ever been nominated on that basis before. For me it's not what the award is about, there is a lifetime achievement award that fulfils that need.
Report Cider December 12, 2009 12:16 PM GMT
Euros were what, in June?
I'm not sure the cases are comparable. This is kind of a unique situation for spoty, to have such a strong candidate for a career reward for someone still operating at the highest level possible.
Giggs would be better for me, but it will be a good market either way. Money aside I would be happy to see him win it.
Report Cider December 12, 2009 12:19 PM GMT
Yep, I guess the public will decide the rules. The papers nominated him. Giggs has hit many of his landmarks in this calender year.
Report TheMadness December 12, 2009 12:22 PM GMT
It took a man winning 3 gold medals in one Olympics, something that no Brit had done in 100 years to beat a formula 1 champion last year. Button is also white, better looking and more likeable it seems to me than Hamilton.
Report Cider December 12, 2009 12:25 PM GMT
Button remains the most likely winner for me (no shocks there). He is not bullet proof tho, Giggs has more fans it's just a question of whether they can be motivated into voting on the day.
Report attitude adjuster December 12, 2009 12:28 PM GMT
Button's win has also shown how cheap winning the Formula 1 title is

Which nobody will drive the best car next year?

He's a fraud... and he knows it.
Report Powelliphanta superba superba December 12, 2009 12:31 PM GMT
How can you have it over a lifetime but call it sports personality of the YEAR ?.
Report shrewdbury December 12, 2009 12:53 PM GMT
The biggest difference between his case and the previous (Rooney, Gerrards) might I guess be that there's been more of a 'campaign' and emotion behind Giggs (vs those previous)?
Report bunnyman December 12, 2009 2:24 PM GMT
Clydebank, as you say 2004 was a very strong year and Rooney was part of a failed England team that lost in the quarter finals, hardly a qualification for SPOTY. In 2004 he was a new player at United, and no-one would suggest that he was by then a Manchester legend. There was also probably an understanding that Rooney had many good years ahead of him and plenty more opportunities to win this award. There will be little doubt that this will be Giggs' one and only chance.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 3:16 PM GMT
Kenny Dalglish was 3rd to Nigel Mansell and Fatima Whitbread age 35 in 1986. (Liverpool, Celtic and Scotland legend)
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 3:33 PM GMT
so I was wrong - someone has made the shortlist based on lifetime contribution.

3rd behind the motor racing driver and the female athlete. Uncanny really
Report bunnyman December 12, 2009 3:42 PM GMT
Blimey C29 - how did you dig that up? Yeah have to agree that's a very good parallel for Giggs. A Liverpool and a Scotland legend, you'd have to rate his chances. Did they have a shortlist back in those days? Or was it just pop a name on a postcard and send it in?
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 4:01 PM GMT
no idea
Report bunnyman December 12, 2009 4:19 PM GMT
I don't think they had shortlists in those days, I think you could vote for anyone you liked so the football vote might have been split 50 ways. If the same applied today I wouldn't even put Giggs in the top 10 - would you?
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 4:37 PM GMT
Justin Fashanu and Bob Nudd were dqfd after campaigns from the Gay and Angling Times respectively. I'd expect there was some sort of campaign for Dalglish back in 1986 similar to that of the Facebook campaign for Giggs. I've no idea if there was a shorltist and televote or not or whether it was just forms from the old Radio Times
Report Darren Lamb December 12, 2009 4:43 PM GMT
clydebank, if you're green on giggs then i'm german.
Report bunnyman December 12, 2009 4:57 PM GMT
We have no way of knowing whether thats the case now Clydebank, but after initially thinking that was bad news for Giggs, I'm now thinking the opposite. The possibility that Dalglish came 3rd without the benefit of a shortlist to focus people's attention towards him is an incredible achievement.
Report stu December 12, 2009 5:01 PM GMT
It is just possible we are staring at the most obvious 'good thing' in specials betting IF the campaign behind Giggs has proven effective. It would hardly like it was difficult to work out why he managed to win.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 5:11 PM GMT
As already stated I'm green on the front 3 in the market and am on Button and Ennis for top 3 and as stated a few days ago I've said I think the 1-2-3 will be Button/Ennis/Giggs.

With all the Giggs ramps someone needs to give a balanced argument against him.
Report Darren Lamb December 12, 2009 5:12 PM GMT
i don't believe you.
Report bunnyman December 12, 2009 5:13 PM GMT
stu, as I said on the main Giggs thread, the Man U/Wales support may fail to materialise, but if he does win easily it will be the most obvious thing ever in hindsight, so for that reason I need him to be a decent winner.
Report stu December 12, 2009 5:13 PM GMT
Yep, thats fair enough CB - though we should also remember that (ramping or not) he isn't actually trading as favourite in this, and 4.4 looks pretty fair considering.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
of course you don't Darren. You started this thread attempting to drive Giggs price down and you don't like it
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 5:19 PM GMT
He's favourite amongst forum posters trying to drive the price down stu.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 12, 2009 5:29 PM GMT
For the record I've laid Giggs at some pretty high prices along with several others pre nominations. Since nominations I've backed him at 26 21 19 18 17.5 and 9.

Overall I have a book with a modest positive profit expectancy at present prices (in fact Giggs is very marginally my best result on the o/r). Strauss Murray and Idowu are my biggest losers. If either of Ennis or Button fails to place I will make a loss on the place mkt (unless Daley manages to place which I really dont expect, but I have a position on him purely based on the basis that he is a start in front of the camera and could shorten)
Report Cider December 12, 2009 5:31 PM GMT
There was no need for another thread.
In fact, there was no need for any extra Giggs threads, but that's were the convos led.
I doubt if they have any impact on the front of the market tho.
Report Darren Lamb December 13, 2009 1:23 AM GMT
CLYDEBANK29 12 Dec 18:16
of course you don't Darren. You started this thread attempting to drive Giggs price down and you don't like it


do any of you believe threads on the betfair forum have any impact of the price of 'runners' on any market?! please...

a forum is for debate, and the sharing of information.

it doesn't matter to me one jot what price giggs goes off. i've backed him (and ennis) and i cannot see how his price has any bearing on his chance of winning the award.

clydebank, you've got a little bit caught up in your own forum hype.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2009 8:59 AM GMT
I don't believe you
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 13, 2009 9:00 AM GMT
you are the person that threw their toys out of their pram.
Report Richard LL December 13, 2009 11:06 AM GMT
The case against Giggs winning is compelling, but there won't be anyone there to argue it, can't imagine them choosing to highlight an average season of a career near it's end when there's so much good material to choose from, the drip drip of comms telling the great unwashed how wonderful Giggs has been must have some effect, the campaign for him to win this feels like it started years ago.

I'm well out of touch with the F1 scene, but the days when a british driver winning the title or failing "heroically" been a shoo in for this feel like a thing of the past.

I would love Ennis to win but having seen last years achieving, charming northern girl come up short, I can't see this years model doing any better.
Report no moves December 13, 2009 11:44 AM GMT
In the last few years the favourite for this competition has rarely been successful which is in Gigg's favour and makes Button susceptiible.
Report ronsk December 13, 2009 11:52 AM GMT
The case for Ennis is certainly the most compelling imv (and yes I'm on at good prices)... What she achieved this year surpasses Giggs & Button put together, and I'm a United fan, as well as a F1 fan.

Many point to the fact that Kluft was absent; but that will make little, or indeed no difference whatsoever to the voting public. She also happens to be a bubbly young lady (with a PERSONALITY)and should evoke plenty of 'public appeal' to fall back on.

Track and Field has a 33% strike rate in the past 30 years, which easily outscores any percentage rate from any other sport.

The event is being held in Ennis' back yard and that ought to create plenty of local suppot in itself, not to mention wider support from the' mini-kingdom' that is Yorkshire.

Looking at her likely closest rivals doesn't worry me. People have fallen out of love with F1 in recent times.... Hamilton couldn't win it last year (albeit up against a worthy candidate in Hoy) and he was well fancied. Giggs is a LEGEND in my mind, but to say that he he's a great 'sporting personality' is stretching the point somewhat... He deserves just about every accolade going imv, every one except this one that is!
Report Smalltime Punter December 13, 2009 2:28 PM GMT
Should help Button that F1 was back on the BBC this year though - i.e they'll be keen to give him a good edit and will have plenty of footage to show.

I backed Ennis when I thought it was pretty much a straight shoot-out between her and Button, and she was 6.8 compared to his 1.7ish. Never occurred to me that Giggs would be so heavily backed if he made the shortlist, which in hindsight was a bit silly.

Ah well, can't be helped. Come on Jessica...
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