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TheMadness
28 Nov 09 19:24
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Date Joined: 30 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 32,479 | Blogger: TheMadness's blog
Just trying to work this out now.
Pause Switch to Standard View Hollins is miles clear in the PV. How...
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Report Guybrush Threepwood November 28, 2009 7:31 PM GMT
Judges order of preference in the final.

1st Whittle
2nd Ali
3rd Hollins
4th Laila.

This is how they will vote off.
Report TheMadness November 28, 2009 7:43 PM GMT
Just imagine next week though...

1 Ali/Ricky 4
2 Ricky/Ali 3
3 Laila 2
4 Hollins 1

PV...

1 Hollins 4 + 1 = 5
2 Laila 3+ 2 = 5
3 Ali/ricky 2 + 3 = 5
4 ricky/Ali 1 + 4 = 5

Could happen.
Report Smalltime Punter November 28, 2009 7:57 PM GMT
If he wins the PV then the only way he can go out next week is if

1. He finishes bottom with the judges
2. Whoever finishes 3rd with the judges is last in the PV
3. He loses the dance off

Any ties in the judges scores and he can't be in the dance off (assuming he wins the PV) and any other permutation makes him safe as well.

So I think he's pretty safe next week - best chance to get rid of him will be the week after - assuming that Laila goes next week (not guaranteed but by far the most likely) and Ali is beating Ricky in the PV then the judges need to ensure that their voting places them

1 Ali
2 Ricky
3 Chris

Assuming a PV of

1 Chris
2 Ali
3 Ricky

then you have

1 Ali (3 + 2 =5)
2 Chris (1 + 3 = 4)
3 Ricky (2 + 1 = 3)

Ricky v Chris dance off and vote to keep Ricky.
Report holders November 28, 2009 8:01 PM GMT
imagine how much work he would have done on this if he was a big time punter.
Report seanvice November 28, 2009 8:02 PM GMT
Dreading this semi final If is Holins/Ali/Ricky. Would not even know who to cheer to come top out of Ali and Ricky. Lets hope for a tie this time to give us 3/3/2.

BTW guys I assume everyone is praying for that Ali/Ricky dance off, best chance of it happening next week is if Chris comes bottom with the judges, which with the samba as one of his dances next week looks possible.
Report TheMadness November 28, 2009 8:04 PM GMT
"1 Ali
2 Ricky
3 Chris

Assuming a PV of

1 Chris
2 Ali
3 Ricky

then you have

1 Ali (3 + 2 =5)
2 Chris (1 + 3 = 4)
3 Ricky (2 + 1 = 3)

Ricky v Chris dance off and vote to keep Ricky"

Yes, this is my great fear. What someone needs to do is bring this to the attetion of people on Digital Spy so that those maniacs flood the BBC with complaints about the fact that someone who tops the public vote could get eliminated and that the BBC needs to do something about this.
Report curious-cat December 3, 2009 1:14 AM GMT
^
Report GeorgeBrush December 3, 2009 5:24 AM GMT
TheMadness 28 Nov 20:43
Just imagine next week though...

1 Ali/Ricky 4
2 Ricky/Ali 3
3 Laila 2
4 Hollins 1

PV...

1 Hollins 4 + 1 = 5
2 Laila 3+ 2 = 5
3 Ali/ricky 2 + 3 = 5
4 ricky/Ali 1 + 4 = 5

Could happen.



Assumed PV took precedence in ties?
Report Henry VIII December 3, 2009 8:20 AM GMT
You're all mad. Mad I tell you.
Report chisel December 3, 2009 9:53 AM GMT
Why do people continue to say that Hollins is clear favourite with the public. This is simply not the case!

He has actually scored well the last few weeks and would have avoided the dance off with any kind of support from the public. At this stage of the game, anything could happen. I for one am not convinced of his popularity, and if he scores bottom this week will probably be in the dance off. I expect Whittle to top audience score as those that feel the best dancer should win will inevitably pick up the phone.

People have been claiming that Tuffers, Nat and Hollins were favourites with the public over recent weeks, and now only Hollins is left..
Report squares December 3, 2009 9:57 AM GMT
squares 02 Dec 13:46
"Logic" to suggest Chris is doing well in the public vote:

- only one of the remaining contestants not to be in a dance off;

- of the remaining contestants he is the one with the least "dance" experience in his background, yet still managed to finish a reasonably close 2nd to Ali in the first week's two dances, Ali's waltz and rumba both 30s, Chris's tango and rumba 26 and 30.

- not as crucial as in XF but still an issue, he has had a poorer set of dancing positions than the remaining contestants, namely:
3/8, 5/8, 3/14, 2/13, 12/12, 2/11, 4/10, 8/9, 4/7, 3/6, 1/5;

- in the main he has been mid table with his scores (traditionally the most dangerous position to be in);

- he has had no "sympathy" vote to rely on to put him through, ie. no shockingly bad dances, no "external" dramas, not been bottom of the leaderboard, no major altercations with the judges;

- a reliable leak told us he was leading the vote in the early weeks of the series, a time when there were many more well-known and charismatic characters with a larger fan base than him and also plenty of sympathy votes coming for the poorer dancers.
Report squares December 3, 2009 9:59 AM GMT
Recent exits of "cheeky chappy / fun" dancers such as Tuffers, RickyG and Nat are likely to help, together with crowd-pleasing dance routines such as Saturday's Charleston.

Some of Chris's lower scores earlyish in the series were down to him forgetting his steps and losing his confidence a tad, more than poor dancing.
Report johnnyrant December 3, 2009 10:19 AM GMT
chisel - they've not been claiming anything. They've followed the scores each week and drawn their conclusions based on that. I think you might struggle to find many in agreement with you regarding Whittle being top of the public vote.
Report Amy Other December 3, 2009 11:16 AM GMT
chisel - you need to check your maths. Hollins got more votes that Ricky last week.
Report TheMadness December 3, 2009 3:06 PM GMT
"GeorgeBrush 03 Dec 06:24


TheMadness 28 Nov 20:43
Just imagine next week though...

1 Ali/Ricky 4
2 Ricky/Ali 3
3 Laila 2
4 Hollins 1

PV...

1 Hollins 4 + 1 = 5
2 Laila 3+ 2 = 5
3 Ali/ricky 2 + 3 = 5
4 ricky/Ali 1 + 4 = 5

Could happen.



Assumed PV took precedence in ties?"

Yeah it does. I'm dreaming about this happening. ;)
Report Henry VIII December 3, 2009 3:38 PM GMT
Madness I haven't followed this from the beginning but in your scenario Mince loses dance off surely (fairly or otherwise)?
Report Glasgow100 December 3, 2009 3:42 PM GMT
Henry it would be ricky and ali in the dance off in that scenario as the public vote takes preference
Report GeorgeBrush December 3, 2009 4:18 PM GMT
He can go this week TM, as has been pointed out to me since.....

Mince 4+1
Ali 3+3
Ricky 2+4
Laila 1+2

Requires Laila to be bottom with public, but beat him on floor.
Report Henry VIII December 3, 2009 6:04 PM GMT
Thanks Glasgow
Report allez oop December 3, 2009 7:30 PM GMT
I thought there were 5 judges scoring this week.
Report allez oop December 3, 2009 7:31 PM GMT
I see - silly me.
Report allez oop December 3, 2009 7:35 PM GMT
At least with 5 judges Len doesn't get the chance of 2 votes in a dance- off.
Report allez oop December 3, 2009 7:54 PM GMT
Perhaps Darcey will be the producers' mole.She could counteract the judges' excesses (conspiracy theory).
Report TheMadness December 3, 2009 9:01 PM GMT
"GeorgeBrush 03 Dec 17:18


He can go this week TM, as has been pointed out to me since.....

Mince 4+1
Ali 3+3
Ricky 2+4
Laila 1+2

Requires Laila to be bottom with public, but beat him on floor."

Yep, it is strong possibility. Ricky could get a bounce from last week. My guess is that it's all quite close between the other 3. He's dodging bullets now.
Report GeorgeBrush December 3, 2009 9:05 PM GMT
Depends if Laila is beating him in the vote I guess. Perhaps vote for her on Saturday
Report GeorgeBrush December 3, 2009 9:07 PM GMT
(Ricky)
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg December 3, 2009 9:13 PM GMT
why the fck is darcy joining the show??!
Report chisel December 4, 2009 12:26 PM GMT
Amy Other 03 Dec 12:16


chisel - you need to check your maths. Hollins got more votes that Ricky last week

I am aware of this. What I am arguing is that RW is likely to get an avalanche of suport this week from peopel that want the best dancer to win. He is clearly the best dancer in the show.

This makes Chris position a difficult one

Regards earlier weeks. Well , teh reason no dance off is simple. More competitors and more dead wood. Thsi is what makes him vulberable.

I like the price of CH to go this week
Report Amy Other December 4, 2009 1:36 PM GMT
"What I am arguing is that RW is likely to get an avalanche of suport this week from peopel that want the best dancer to win. He is clearly the best dancer in the show."

That's quite an assumption. Past SCD shows are littered with best dancers that did not win at this late stage.
Report Glasgow100 December 4, 2009 2:17 PM GMT
Chisel

its pointless debating with the Chris fan club on here, their mostly all clearly blinkered
Report five leaves left December 4, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Report Amy Other December 4, 2009 2:22 PM GMT
You're the one that's blinkered, Glasgow. Most people on here aren't saying Chris is going to win. They are assessing his chances (and his price) on the strong possibility that he is topping the vote. That includes the very real chance of him being eliminated this week or next week. You and chisel, meanwhile, seem determined to ignore the possibility that the best dancer may not win. That's blinkered.
Report Glasgow100 December 4, 2009 2:33 PM GMT
Amy

of course i understand theres a possibility the best dancer may not win, i understand every possible outcome and i think chris wont win, its just my opinion, i may be wrong, trust me i have been in the past.
Report Amy Other December 4, 2009 2:36 PM GMT
So who is being blinkered and why? Apparently most of us?
Report Glasgow100 December 4, 2009 2:37 PM GMT
never mind, i give up
Report Amy Other December 4, 2009 2:50 PM GMT
Good idea
Report Glasgow100 December 4, 2009 3:04 PM GMT
Yep, i'm gonna quit while i'm ahead
Report Carla December 10, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
sounds like the BBC are in favour of Hollins now...
Report seanvice December 10, 2009 3:28 PM GMT
Beeb never really cared who wins imo. Some would argue they really wanted Alesha, but Gethin would have been just as good for them.

Judges seem to have wanted the best dancers to win most years.

The main reason/only reason the beeb made no dance decision is to avoid the huge bad press they would get if Hollins went after topping the PV.
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