SPOTY - Won and lost on the night - who pulls in the votes during the show?

Cb,all the normal rules are out the window this year.

the audience will be decimated because the X Factor final is on at the same time.

Hi CB.

Interestingly, decimated means "reduced by 10%" - I think you mean even worse than that for the show though.

Do you think we're going to see more of a male, sports fan audience this year?

AA not CB! whoops sorry AA.

Thought we'd caught you out there CB :D

X Factor is so all conquering his year,it's seem crazy by the Beeb.

Even the other forums on here have X Factor threads.

Punters need to be alive to this and bet accordingly.A lot of blokes will simply Sky plus it,keep their head down and pretend to their other halves they've not
wagered ludicrous amounts on this addictive nonsense IMO :p

9.8m last year and a tiny proportion of votes compared to the other side. Even less this year

Giggs is capable of winning at a canter if his fans turn out

Giggs - I suppose the football fans' wives will be watching X Factor - bad for Giggs?
Button - no idea about what difference the XF will make.
Ennis - No idea..

Need to give this some more thought!

JLS are huge Ennis fans... even the gay one likes her.

If there is an x-factor effect it should mean that there are a greater concentration of sports enthusiasts watching and voting - since all part-timers will be watching ITV. As such it should mean more chance of a "deserving" winner rather than people just voting for the biggest "name"

Just my two cents

Giggs then innit ;-)

Guess it must be - small name - only 9 letters

attitude adjuster 02 Dec 17:03
Cb,all the normal rules are out the window this year.

the audience will be decimated because the X Factor final is on at the same time.

a a

I think you are mixing up the traditional BBC SPOTY audience with people on here who like to bet / trade / lay etc .......... and as for voting they were influenced by Beth Tweedle's gymnastic performance on the night to vote her into 3rd place ... so the format of the show and the time given to each contestant will have an influence on the outcome.

cc,has it taken you 4 days to think of that :)

i agree with you.i just feel this could,just could,be a strange one this year

because the interest in X Factor is all conquering this year.

I see XF is 730-830 tonight - wonder if they will will do the same next weekend?

SPOTY is traditionally 7-9

Agree many people will Sky Plus SPOTY and watch XF - maybe because they don't see SPOTY as so important or 'live'.

Those who get good edits outside of XF hours could be key here.

I think Addlington chances were badly hit by her interview during last year's show.

XF is 7.30 -9.30 next weekend AA

Don't ask me how they drag it out so long!

2 hours for the results show! Jeez!

So early SPOTY slot = winner? Maximum exposure in terms of viewers before they switch to XF and in terms of having a nice slot as the phone lines open at the start.

Gotta fancy they will start with Athletics to be honest - or maybe F1?

Seems unlikely to kick off with footie or boxing?

3 x Crimbo songs?, 3 x best previous performance?, 3 x celebrity duets?

+ loads of waffle and loads of ads

oh, 2 hours for the results show as well, bl!mey

Single men will decide who wins this year. Most married/couples will have to play 2nd fiddle to X Factor.

In general single men know the following:

1) Giggs is in the shortlist for his whole career and not what he has achieved in the last year. They wont vote for him on that basis.

2) Jenson button is only up for the award because his car was so superior in 1st half of the season. Limped over the line. Very few votes for Button (will struggle to finish top 3)

3) Jessica Ennis looks fit but is so small that can look like a schoolgirl at times, so wont win the votes purely on looks alone. Only won gold because Kluft wasn't there. False world champion. Will get a few votes but not enough to win.

4) David Haye is a bit of a gobby git but beat the beast from the east. A champion in possibly the poorest heavyweight division in living memory. Boxing is popular as far as single men are concerned so may get quite a big amount of the vote. Real chance of winning.

5) Andrew Strauss: The ashes is massive, although Strauss didn't win it single handedly he played a captains part. Also looks to be transforming the way we play in one-dayers. Will get a few votes, possibly top 3 finish.

6) Tom Daley: A little kid who dives into a pool, did an average dive but everyone else fluffed their dives and he won by default. Will get very few votes.

7) Phillips Idowu: Tripple jumper, has a quirky personality, may do better than most expect, especially if he does a demonstration on the night. No chance of winning but may finish 4th or 5th.

8) Andy Murray. Most his fans are middle age women who go to Wimbledon. They will be watching X Factor. He has no chance.

9) Beth Tweddle. Face like a bag of spanners, but a fair rack on her for a gymnast. A demonstation from her with some good camera work could get her a fair few votes. Genuine world champion. Decent chance for top 3. Possible winner.

10) Mark Cavendish: A fair amount of single men know more about cycling than women would do. His achievements in the Tour de France were amazing. Very much a livewire contender. Possible winner.


Personally I want Tweddle to win, but think top 3 will be:

1) David Haye
2) Mark Cavendish
3) Beth Tweddle.

Yep, 2 hours for the **g results show sq.

Of course the pause is 1 hour of that

cuban pete, can't have any of your top three!

top three will be Giggs, Button and Ennis.

3) Jessica Ennis looks fit but is so small that can look like a schoolgirl at times, so wont win the votes purely on looks alone

I think I sense a contradiction in this reasoning... :p

Button on JRoss show on Friday night

Jessica Ennis deserves to win it

IF GIGGS WINS SPORTS PERSONALITY IT WILL BE THE BIGGEST TRAVESTY OF ALL TIME

Button Haye perm one from 5 for 3rd ( Strauss / Ennis / Giggs / Cavendish / Daley )

wouldn't have thought they'll have Tweddle performing on the night again

Button being on J Ross is a huge plus

if Andy Murray is going to turn up expect a huge contraction in the odds
personally I think his achievments are huge but then I'm not a petrol head and athletics is a once every 4 years sport for me ( unless there's an attraction like Coe v Ovett )

Haye has the personality and if the beeb decide to do some kind of exhibition bout with him sparring against Lennox or someone ?

Giggs doing keepy-uppy ? .............. I don't think so


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

regarding x-factor being on I've no idea as I haven't watched it.
Perhaps there's not that many who would want to watch both ?
Anyway I can't think it would affect any of the contestants other than proportionately

the number of phone votes isn't huge .......... on the night if your contestants number is constantly engaged it's usually a good sign that they are getting a lot of votes.

The one thing we know is that fairness doesn't come into it as the time alotted to each contestant varies and they only set up one stunt on the night usually.

Lastly why don't they wait until nearer the end of the year ?

struggle to get so many necessary people together that close to Xmas/New Year cc

BUTTON HAS TO WIN

I had a small punt on Ennis a couple of weeks or so ago at 6.8, mainly because I thought it was a 2 horse race between her and Button and I liked the price.

I knew Giggs would have his supporters if he made the list, but am amazed at how low he has gone. If there were no other obvious candidates then fair enough, but there are half a dozen World Champions there, including 3 from F1 and Athletics, which are traditionally strong sports for this award.

I know the voting format is different these days, and it's hard to know how the X Factor factor will affect things, but I really would be very surprised (and disappointed) if Giggs scooped the main award.

That's the thing. Lots of people would be disappointed if Giggs won this.

The minority of the public that voted for him probably wouldn't care

Probably not, but the only person I can remember winning it for career/longevity rather than performance in the year in question is Calzaghe, and he wasn't up against any winners (had Hamilton won the F1 then I'm pretty sure he'd have won SPOTY as well).

Redgrave too. It happens

Redgrave had won an Olympic gold that year though! I agree that it was the fact that it was his 5th that clinched the award, but he still had a pretty solid achievement that year.

So did Calzaghe and Giggs. I struggle to see what point you are making?

People win this for lifetime achievement added to what they have done that year.

Two F1 drivers have even won for losing the title

Not looking to make a particularly strong point really - just an observation that I can't remember someone winning purely for career/longevity ahead of someone with a really strong performance that year. Calzaghe had no one to beat, Redgrave had a great 2000 performance as well as his stellar career, and I can't remember who the Hill and Mansell were up against when they won it for finishing 2nd.

Giggs doesn't really have a great 2009 'moment' to focus on - OK, he won the league with Man U, but then he does that most years. And it's not as if he was the most influential player - I think most would agree that that was Ronaldo. If he'd scored the winner in the Champions League final for instance, then that would be a bit different.

I'm certainly not saying he can't or won't win - just that I hope he doesn't and don't think he will, for the reasons given.

smalltime you've just put up some excellent reasoning why he's 11/4 :)

:) Yeah, I guess so.

Ah well, will still be cheering on Ennis, and not just because I've backed her.

The key to SPOTY is getting into the minds of the voters.

Who will Daily Mail readers vote for? - is the question.

The answer is Jessica Ennis.

Occam's Razor - that's my line of attack for SPOTY hence I have also backed Ennis

hopefully she'll dazzle on the night, get a nice edit and the Daily Mail voters will come out and vote for her while the chavs and football fans are watching X Factor

Shes got some ground to make up in the Mails online poll
Ryan Giggs 35%
Jenson Button 29%
Jessica Ennis 7%
David Haye 6%
Andy Murray 6%
Beth Tweddle 6%
Tom Daley 4%
Mark Cavendish 3%
Andrew Strauss 3%
Phillips Idowu 1%

Another reason not to lay off Giggs.

Or to back him if you are in serious danger of doing your wedge ;-)

Mail readers may discover on the night that Giggs is as black as Ennis (and Haye) so that'll knock him back a bit.

I think the clash with X Factor means one major change, that you lose a big portion of casual voters who would be swayed by what happens on the night.

But it has a limited effect on the people who've already decided where their vote is going, the genuine fans who are likely to multiple vote whether they are watching or not

The Sheffield/Yorkshire vote for Ennis
The Man Utd vote for Giggs
The Welsh vote for Giggs
The Cycling vote for Cavendish

I think they are the strongest core groups this year

Add in petrolhead vote for Button and boxing vote for Haye.

That's yer top 5. But in what order?

That's why I like Giggs, because he has two core groups backing him and possibly the two strongest as well

Yep. Largest and possibly the group least distracted by XF too

Many of the Giggs supporters will be watching X Factor and not bother voting imo. This year, more than any, the SPOTY viewing audience will be made up of genuine sports lovers, who will vote on the night for who deserves to win the award. Any fair-minded sports fan will reach the conclusion Giggs doesn't deserve to win it. As others point out, you don't win it for lifetime achievement, you win it for an achievement in that year. Nothing Giggs has done in 2009 merits support. There are far more deserving candidates on the shortlist.
I'm not a Giggs layer but reckon the edit on the night will do him no favours and he will have to rely on the die-hard Utd fans to multi-vote him to victory, and there's a big question mark over that happening imo. Gerrard didn't even beat**Macarthur for 2nd in 2005 and he single-handedly carried LFC to UCL success - though maybe that tells you LFC fans are fair-minded, and accepted others were more deserving on the night.

I got involved in a argument on the football forum about this 'Welsh vote'. I have to say imo it is a paranoid little Englander attitude that would imagine the Welsh voting en block and only because the candidate was Welsh. If you believe this you probably also believe that everyone starts speaking Welsh only when an Englishman walks in a Welsh pub. I'll accept that he could possbly get a marginally higher proportion of the votes in Wales compared with some English regions because he is such an icon but it's a very small voter base to start with.

That's not to say I don't think he's a genuine contender and I think he's still worth a punt at the the 3.7 available here.
It's not so much his achievements in 2009 as the milestones he has passed this year, which when presented on Sunday night could be very persuasive. Many of them are of course just symbolic but so's winning a car race in the fastest car ;)
Got most of this from wiki and presume it's all correct.

Won his 11th Prem title, only United player to have done this.
Won 3rd League cup, only United player to have done this.
Played his 800th game for Man Utd and has mosr appearances record.
Scored his 100th Prem Goal
Only player to have scored in every prem season which he of course did twice in 2009
Only player to have scored in eleven consecutive Champions League tournaments which he did in 2009
Only player to have scored in fourteen different Champions League tournaments which he did in 2009
20th consecutive season he's scored for Man Utd.
Beat Gary Speeds record for most games in Prem as outfield player.
Won PFA award.

The other stuff:
He is constantly held up as a role model by the media (quite rightly imho) in an era when the FA and other bodies are trying to restore some respect and where **ing constantly grabs the headlines. I'd expect this to be highlighted.
His work for charidee.
It comes across as quite genuine. His stuff in Sierra Leone was on the nation news only last month. Expect this to be mentioned.
Personality.
Giggs is a sharper bloke than is made out here, maybe does the PR bit for his aftermatch TV interviews and comes across as the average footballer does but I think he can come across as coherent and intelligent.
And being a Premiership footballer, Giggs has something the others don't. An army of followers that may want to vote even if their parents are not interested. Can't see many kids persuading their dads to vote for Button, Ennis or Haye.

Agree about the Man Utd vote though.

Jonnyrant - good analysis as usual

I think the Scousers' pay as you go's were prob. out of credit on the night in 2005 so they couldn't afford to vote!

johnnyrant 07 Dec 12:59

As others point out, you don't win it for lifetime achievement, you win it for an achievement in that year. Nothing Giggs has done in 2009 merits support. There are far more deserving candidates on the shortlist.

Johny, I've mentioned this elsewhere but in 2000 Steve Redgrave won one of 11 British Gold medals. why did he get SPOTY and no-one else? Because he also won gold in 96 92 and 88. Lifetime achievement was clearly a major factor in the award that year.

The award doesn't necessarily go to the most deserving, anyway. It goes to the person with the most votes.

Does it? I'll ask Bob Nudd and Eddie the Eagle ;-)

"Johny, I've mentioned this elsewhere but in 2000 Steve Redgrave won one of 11 British Gold medals. why did he get SPOTY and no-one else? Because he also won gold in 96 92 and 88. Lifetime achievement was clearly a major factor in the award that year."

And 84...

Longevity is used as seperator, not as a reason to vote for them in the first place. Giggs is probably 10th on achievements this year.

Longevity is used as seperator, not as a reason to vote for them in the first place

The BBC may be surprised to hear of this.