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DolphMcFadden
16 Nov 09 16:53
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 17 | Blogger: DolphMcFadden's blog
As promised, to preempt the conspiracy theories,
for this program my predictions in advance, after
only one of 19 shows has been shown.

There are 12 candidates (so far), current odds
on Betfair in brackets.

The man to beat:

JIMMY WHITE (6)

But there is another natural winner of this sort
of program in the camp:

SAMANTHA FOX (9)

This should be the duel for victory, then, provided
no one walks (like Mutya did in CBB2009).
Already much less likely to have a shot at the crown:

STUART MANNING (18)
COLIN McALLISTER (15)

Four more women candidates, they have no more than
an outside chance:

JORDAN (not on market)
KIM WOODBURN (9)
SABRINA WASHINGTON (60)
CAMILLA DALLERUP (20)

Of those, I find Camilla least predictable.
The rest of the candidates have no chance at all:

GINO d'ACAMPO (7)
LUCY BENJAMIN (9)
GEORGE HAMILTON (10)
JUSTIN RYAN (36)

As she's no longer with Peter Andre, Jordan may start
a romance with Gino. That could help them stay a bit
longer than they would normally.

Favourite for first eviction should probably be Justin,
but this is difficult to predict and may come to depend
on immunity. Lucy may gain it by winning an endurance
challenge.

If we compare my ranking to the market, we see that
Jimmy is indeed favourite, but still reasonable value.
Samantha even a bit better value. And virtually free
money available by laying Gino, Lucy and George.

This is all preliminary, I may update it later.
Especially if new candidates join the camp.
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Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg November 16, 2009 4:56 PM GMT
roger, over and out
Report five leaves left November 16, 2009 4:57 PM GMT
As promised, to preempt the conspiracy theories

have I missed something?
Report squares November 16, 2009 5:00 PM GMT
Don't you think Gino's wife and 2 kids might be a bit upset about that?
Report DolphMcFadden November 16, 2009 5:07 PM GMT
I think you're right they might be upset ... I'll take back the romance prediction then. Didn't know that he had a family (should have researched it before posting).
Report maiaze November 16, 2009 5:24 PM GMT
for me so far i know its early but ime on gino
Report GeorgeBrush November 16, 2009 5:26 PM GMT
Don't you think Gino's wife and 2 kids might be a bit upset about that?
Report maiaze November 16, 2009 5:31 PM GMT
hahhahaha george not what i meant
Report DolphMcFadden November 19, 2009 7:34 PM GMT
Update after four shows (fifth starting very soon):

Camilla is out and has been replaced on yesterday's show with

JOE BUGNER

A much stronger contender, in fact more likely at this stage than
any of the others to interfere in the duel between Jimmy and Sam.
The market doesn't understand this and has him in last place
with odds of 34.

Katie Price (Jordan) gets every trial at the moment, and she won't
be among the first out, but she can't win. She took part once before
in this show and made only 5th place.
Report attitude adjuster November 19, 2009 7:38 PM GMT
27lbs better off now,goes on the ground and only one of the others has Group form ;)
Report Chimmychanga November 19, 2009 8:19 PM GMT
The market doesn't understand this and has him in last place
with odds of 34.

LOL
Report Chimmychanga November 20, 2009 8:31 PM GMT
Market still not understanding Joe Bugner I see
Report DolphMcFadden November 22, 2009 11:23 PM GMT
I made a major mistake in my first day assessment,
and it's George. I've changed my opinion on him now,
he could even make the final. Anyone who laid him at
my advice should consider getting out and taking the
loss (but maybe not right now, after this great show
for him). Apologies. But the added problem is that if
he really makes the final he could be given the eating
trial and score points off it, thereby becoming a serious
contender for the crown. Let's hope he's just too smug
to be liked.

(He's joint favourite with Gino now. Odds nearly halved
since the beginning when I said he had no chance.
But I don't generally just follow changes in the market.
I still think Gino is hopeless, whether he survives
tomorrow or not. Also, my positive opinion on Joe
goes completely against the market, as Chimmychanga
has observed.)

I also didn't foresee that Kim would be so awful, but
she might still last for a while due to entertainment
value. No chance of winning though.

All in all, I still think Jimmy and Sam should end up
first two (in whichever order), even though the market
says Sam's more than 30 percent likely to be first out.
Odds on both have lengthened since the start, so
there's money to be made by getting in now.

Regarding first eviction/bush-battles:

Obviously it's unsatisfactory to put just three out
of 12 up for first eviction (Sam, Lucy, Gino). I said
Lucy might win immunity by winning an endurance trial,
and she might have done so ... but in the first battle
she was tricked into leaving by George, and in the
second the trial was resolved by a "tie-break" after
"time was up" --- that's ridiculous. If time was limited
they should have been told so at the start, and then
possibly everyone would have made it into the tie-break,
not only Lucy and Kim. The third and final battle had
nothing to do with endurance. George might now be
helped by that fantastic feat of guessing the passage
of an hour to an error of just two seconds.
Report DolphMcFadden November 25, 2009 4:04 PM GMT
No show today. Nearly two thirds in. Nine candidates left.
Looking at the market, I cannot believe the odds I'm seeing:

Gino 2.38
George 4.7
Kim 9
Jimmy 14
Sam 15

As for George: fair enough, decent candidate, I've admitted already I was wrong.

But Gino and Kim CANNOT WIN.

The winner will be Sam Fox. People may then complain about a conspiracy as they did when Ulrika won CBB in January. The situation is really quite similar.

Jimmy White could still mount a challenge if he decides to play a part, he's been virtually nonexistent so far.

Out of the remaining four, only Joe might conceivably catch on, but he was already in the bottom two yesterday.
Report attitude adjuster November 25, 2009 4:13 PM GMT
this could end up rivalling the Labour Party manifesto in 1983 as the longest running suicide note in history :)
Report maiaze November 25, 2009 4:15 PM GMT
you havent exactly praised yourself in glory so far have you dolph
Report Topper Robson November 25, 2009 4:28 PM GMT
Full credit for not coming back with the old on reflection I decided to back Gino when he hit 7/1 nonsense and I have now greened out rubbish, you made your call and although it aint looking great at the moment it could still come good, doubt it but it could. Good luck.
Report Henry VIII November 25, 2009 4:30 PM GMT
But Gino and Kim CANNOT WIN.

Why not?
Report DolphMcFadden November 25, 2009 4:37 PM GMT
Thanks Topper!

Henry: Kim can't win because she's awful. Gino can't win because he has the wrong personality (in this context). Or let's say: he's less likely to win than the Labour Party is to win next year's election (whatever its manifesto).
Report laughing gravy November 25, 2009 4:44 PM GMT
I wouldn't discount Labour just yet.

Dave ain't sealed the deal.
Report Henry VIII November 25, 2009 4:45 PM GMT
Kim's positives will probably be outweighed by her neurotic habit of attacking people over nothing (so far shes only argued with Jordan and Joe Bugner so it hasnt harmed her).

But Dolph I dont understand why you think Gino has the wrong personality?
Report DolphMcFadden November 25, 2009 4:46 PM GMT
True, that was a stupid comparison. Only two runners in the election.
Report DolphMcFadden November 25, 2009 4:50 PM GMT
Or maybe three runners
Report attitude adjuster November 25, 2009 4:51 PM GMT
Good luck Dolph....every chance of developing a cult following here imo :)
Report Early Morning Riser November 25, 2009 4:59 PM GMT
CAN I GET A REFUND FROM LAYING GINO & GEORGE. after following your great analysis under the consumer credit act
Report laughing gravy November 25, 2009 5:00 PM GMT
Was that 'cult' aa?
Report attitude adjuster November 25, 2009 5:11 PM GMT
:|
Report DolphMcFadden November 25, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
Thanks AA.

EMR, I won't have anything left for refunds if Gino or George win, consumer credit act or not. Doesn't apply here in Saint Vincent anyway I would guess.
Report Early Morning Riser November 25, 2009 5:25 PM GMT
ok . perhaps your luck will change
Report DolphMcFadden November 30, 2009 10:38 PM GMT
Continuing my "suicide note" .... it's not over yet though.

Sam Fox could have reached the final, but she was effectively
eliminated last week simply by not being included in the edits.
I severely underestimated what a lottery (or worse) this is.
With hindsight, the only prediction one should make at an early
stage is something of the form

"If this candidate manages to survive the lottery of the edits
for a while, then he/she will prosper/decline in the last week."

That was my one big mistake. The other was misjudging George.
An impressive candidate. But he has walked now --- I got severely
lucky there I have to admit.

With Joe out as well, Jimmy should win it. I was worried today
he might be eliminated in the same fashion as Sam, not being
included in the edit. That might even have left Gino to win
"by default", as there would have been no decent opposition left.
Who decides who gets to retrieve these celebrity chests??
It seems grossly unfair.

But: Jimmy not even bottom two! The writing is now on the wall
for everyone to see. Shows are longer and candidates are fewer,
so there is no way that Jimmy won't reach the final, and more.

Gino down to 1.4 but will probably decline from now on.

A word on Stuart: I've always had him as a somewhat decent
candidate, but at the end of the day he's too boring.
Some might think he can repeat what Matt Willis did, but the
main difference is that the year Willis won was a very weak one.
Stuart might have been able to beat Gino in a one on one, due to
negative vote against Gino, but he can't beat someone like Jimmy
(or Swash, or Biggins). And (by the way) his romance with Sabrina
will not last very long afterwards (if it is a romance at all).
Report DolphMcFadden December 1, 2009 12:00 AM GMT
To prove my point about the lottery of the edits
(forgot to mention this in the previous post):
When Sam was bottom 3 (and subsequently went out)
Jimmy was bottom 3 as well. He could have gone out
last week. But today's show and result mean he's
finally safe, with four shows to go.
Report laughing gravy December 5, 2009 5:36 PM GMT
The word 'genius' is sometimes over used, but never in the field of Specials betting can one person have got so much wrong so much the time.

I hope this doesn't put Dolph off returning. He could become a Forum legend. Obviously, people will point to his 'Kim and Gino cannot win', but for the purists, the market not 'understanding' Joe Bugner still makes my eyes water with pleasure.
Report Metal_Mickey December 5, 2009 6:00 PM GMT
he's Kitten in disguise
Report attitude adjuster December 5, 2009 6:29 PM GMT
lol lg :D

definitely on the shortlist fred of the year
Report DolphMcFadden December 5, 2009 7:37 PM GMT
Ok, guys, due to popular demand ("fred of the year") let's continue. First, the final result:

1. Gino
2. Kim
3. Jimmy
4. Justin
(etc)

The question now is: where did it all go wrong?

In addition to the mistakes I've already admitted (see above), I think the key mistake was a failure to distinguish between this show and Big Brother. I was fooled by the fact that (in my opinion) previous winners Pasquale, Biggins and Swash would also have been strong contenders in Celebrity Big Brother. The shows are nevertheless different. As iNXRBL has written in a recent thread on Jimmy here:

"They want crying, laughing, over exuberance, drama, be it fake or otherwise. They want to be wooed by the celeb into securing their vote."

This applies to the viewers of I'm A Celeb, but (maybe) less so to those of Big Brother. Jimmy didn't try to woo the viewers, that's why it makes sense that he lost. Gino wooed them, and so did Kim and Justin.

May I also note that there was something approaching consensus here that Gino was ITV's chosen one and quite shamelessly supported, while Jimmy was particularly hard done by in task distribution and editing. But just to make this clear: I am not claiming this as an excuse --- after all, laughing gravy will rightly insist I got everything wrong and not just Gino. Actually, I am not even claiming that ITV bias was decisive in Gino's victory.

However, the bias is enough to put me off this show. Instead of trying to develop the missing expertise, I won't watch it any more. There might be some hope left that my approach works better for Big Brother than for I'm A Celebrity. Unfortunately, as I understand it, there will be just one more Celebrity Big Brother. Even if I get everything right there, it wouldn't be enough to compensate for the failure in this thread. So, I won't even watch CBB next month, and my career as a Reality TV betting pundit ends right here, in failure.

But ... maybe one day Big Brother will return ... then watch out for Dolph's Resurrection thread!
Report attitude adjuster December 5, 2009 8:39 PM GMT
Dolph..you've taken defeat and some gentle ribbing on the chin.

Be good to have you back for cbb :)
Report laughing gravy December 5, 2009 8:44 PM GMT
Dolph
Please don't mistake my poking gentle fun as cruelty. Like us all, I get loads of stuff completely wrong. I also wouldn't want to put you off posting again. You have a good spirit about you.
I think the thing that made your postings funny was the (forgive me) 'psuedo-scientific' nature of your deliberations.
I meant no harm.
Kindest Regards
Report stu December 6, 2009 12:58 PM GMT
I messed up on this series, so know how you feel.

One thing I would say though - making statements using words such as 'can't win' etc is pretty silly. (Especially of course when that selection then p1sses it)
Report DolphMcFadden December 6, 2009 7:28 PM GMT
Maybe the statement was silly, but I thought I had good pseudo-scientific theory to back it up!

On the other hand, it's a nicer world where anyone has a chance to win I'm A Celebrity. But is that true for Big Brother as well? I'm not convinced yet. It's just a shame that Big Brother is coming to an end.

And nobody should worry that I get too depressed. Laughing gravy's post (the first one yesterday) caused me to laugh as I haven't done in quite a while. Also, I am hatching increasingly concrete plans for Dolph's Resurrection, but I think next year would be too soon.
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