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maiaze
06 Dec 09 08:48
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Date Joined: 13 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 4,308 | Blogger: maiaze's blog
Just been thinking ali could have topped the public vote last night ( in all probability she didnt ) but we know for sure that ricky has no public support.
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Report maiaze December 6, 2009 8:50 AM GMT
What are the odds of mincey topping pv next week i would say 1/5 or even lower and add that to ali beating ricky in pv i would say 1/2 so surely mincey getting to the final is odds on not odds against which means his price of 3-1 is amazing value.
Report Datasafe December 6, 2009 9:07 AM GMT
The four possible PV results for a Ricky/Laila dance off were:

Chris Laila Ali Ricky
Chris Ali Laila Ricky
Chris Ali Ricky Laila
Ali Chris Laila Ricky

One or other of the first two is most likely to my mind, but you're right that Ali could have beaten Chris in the PV.

Although if we believe Ricky will top the judges scorecard and come last in the PV next week then it becomes irrelevant as Ricky will be in (and presumably win) the dance off regardless.

It's then a case of whether Ali or Chris beats him in the final.
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 9:09 AM GMT
imo data both have allready proved that they more public support than ricky so its ali or chris as the winner
Report Henry VIII December 6, 2009 9:09 AM GMT
Maiaze have you taken into consideration that Ali could easily top judges score even in normal times. Now with BBC and judges wanting a Ricky Ali final they could just give her marks a little extra push to make her top judges score.

Plus shes second to Mince in PV = Ricky Mince dance-off. No final for Mince.
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 9:13 AM GMT
yes henry we will see next week if thats the case but hopefully for all the people who have backed mincey they wont do a con job next week
Report squares December 6, 2009 9:15 AM GMT
During the series:
Ricky has beaten Ali 7 weeks.
Ali has beaten Ricky 3x.
With 2 ties.

Furthermore, Ali has generally done better with the more romantic ballroom, so it does look as if Ricky should score higher next weekend (going by their previous scores for rumba, tango, paso dances which are most similar to AT imo).
Report attitude adjuster December 6, 2009 9:16 AM GMT
No final for mince= the studio will be wrecked/DS will go down/the voting figures will be leaked/questions will be asked in the House

imo.
Report Datasafe December 6, 2009 9:22 AM GMT
Although I may be reading too much into this, there's no BBC SCD Press Release up yet, whilst there's ones dated from every Saturday since the show began.

It could be down to the late finish or perhaps the others were posted on Mondays but dated to Saturday? I wouldn't be overly surprised to see some sort of rule change for the semi final though.
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 9:27 AM GMT
Probably a typing error, but inthe news of the world today it says Ali, Ricky and Chris all through to next weeks final
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 9:33 AM GMT
yeh just read that glasgow also just think its a typing error
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 9:36 AM GMT
i see mincey whittle flip flopped now
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 9:40 AM GMT
i have some bad news for the Chris backers..... due to popular support on here, as some of u know i have been a big supporter of Ricky and ali due to my book. I 'kinda' bailed out a bit last week with a saver on Chris, well not a total saver as its doubled with Joe to win x factor last wk, boyles ports enhanced 12/1 double. If he wins in some ways it would actually be more satisfying for me, i detest the man, dont get the hype at all, but if he wins and i get a result after my big too getting turned over, it will be an amazing turn around for me. however, as i said at the start, the bad news is... as soon as i cover my bets they usually lose!
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 9:43 AM GMT
for me glasgow mincey should be fav he has a better than 50% chance of getting through next week and then he wins for me so i would have him as fav at the moment just ahead of ali with whittle about 5s
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 9:47 AM GMT
i have to agree maiaze, depending on some snooker results today im gonna lump on a few quid more, bizzare thing this betting lark, but i learned a long time ago not to let my heart rule my head. i think betf reds odds of a chris joe dbl at 12s was very generous, only 17/2 with boyles ports. i think i said i placed my bet at b sports in previous post b4 anybody picks me up on it.
Report five leaves left December 6, 2009 9:52 AM GMT
baldie hasn't been offering enhanced doubles, according to oddschecker.
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 9:53 AM GMT
betf red did last week five leaves
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 9:54 AM GMT
boyles ports has been offering enhanced doubles all the way through also, my oringinal bets were placed with enhanced doubles
Report five leaves left December 6, 2009 9:58 AM GMT
hmm ok.

Anyway I'm glad you took the forums advice and covered Chris.
An apology to those you sl@gged off would be nice.
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 10:00 AM GMT
yeh glasgow you did in other words say any1 who backed mincey was deluded and we are all sheep on here who havent got a brain
But then again i did call you a scottish lyying twwaaat so i apologise too ;-)
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 10:00 AM GMT
i'll issue the apology as and when he wins, i still have a feeling Ali will top the judges vote next week, leaving Chris to get emilinated in the dance off
Report Amy Other December 6, 2009 10:02 AM GMT
So glasgow has been backing Chris - that's hilarious!
Report Glasgow100 December 6, 2009 10:05 AM GMT
i totally take everybodys points about Chris's value at the odds etc, i just think the total**ging off of the judges when they mark Ricky, ali at the top gets a bit tedious. They are 'experts' i think they have to mark on the dancing abilitym last night there were talks about sending letters to the bbc as soon as ricky and ali had high marks, i can see the point that ricky or even worse, his partner usnt liked by the public, but to me, having him finish last in the public vote is more shocking than having the judges vote him at the top. but as i say, ive taken all your points on board and apologise for the ill feeling i have caused on previous posts, it can be difficult as a new poster on here to express your personality on here, some of my posts have across far harsher than intended.
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
ok
Report five leaves left December 6, 2009 10:09 AM GMT
aye, n1 glasgow.
Report Henry VIII December 6, 2009 10:10 AM GMT
No final for mince= the studio will be wrecked/DS will go down/the voting figures will be leaked/questions will be asked in the House

Just the 2 best dancers in the final of a dance competition, nothing to see here, move along quietly. People dont really want mass democracy, and they cant have it anyway. Plato would have well understood the necessity of Minces demise.
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 10:12 AM GMT
mince gonna be fav soon bookies are dropping his odds as we speak just gone 7/4 tote and 13/8 bettfredd
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 10:14 AM GMT
If he gets through would every 1 say he is a penalty kick in the final and what would his odds be i would have thought 1/3 any thoughts ?????
Report Datasafe December 6, 2009 10:18 AM GMT
I'd agree he should be, but didn't Tom only go odds on after the showdance?
Report maiaze December 6, 2009 10:19 AM GMT
yes data but think people are a bit more clued up this year and also its been made public with the voting leaks that mincey is the chosen 1
Report downandout December 6, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
3 person final last year gave better odds on Tom than you'd get this year on Mince in the final IMO. Obviously it makes no difference if he's most popular in a 3 person final or a 2 person final, but none of the oddsmakers/alot of punters really understood that concept. Easier to understand in a 2-person final IMO. I'd expect Mince around 4/6.
Report DickyM December 6, 2009 10:58 AM GMT
mince 3.5@365 for those who can
Report Froggitt December 6, 2009 12:13 PM GMT
mince now 2.5@365
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