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gobelins
20 Apr 24 09:03
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 890 | Blogger: gobelins's blog
Is 9/4 value for O'Sullivan (can get boosted odds for minimal stakes)?

The general consensus is that he has an easy quarter, but Jackson Page could give him trouble in R1. His clearance in the decider against Saengkham was absolutely superb, especially as he had hung-in there for most of the match, on what he described as 1 of the hardest tables he had ever played on in his life. Hawkins has beaten O'Sullivan over 3 sessions here, and G.Wilson would be a threat if he can navigate 2 tricky rounds.

If we accept that 4/5 O'Sullivan to win 4th quarter is the right price (he was evens with betfred initially, but was cut to 4/6 after someone had £5 on it) then that makes him 4/5 at the Semi Final stage - with possibly Trump or Williams in the SF and the winner of a tough 2nd quarter in the final. So, 9/4 looks a tad short for my liking - although the draw very rarely pans out as we think.

I've had to have a few quid on Kyren at 40. I accept that there is every chance his game is going to completely unravel against Selby/Allen/Higgins, but I'd kick myself if he came through that quarter, and I hadn't taken a speculative punt. His game is going backwards, and he needs to go back to the basics which made him look like a serious contender here a few years ago. I also backed Gary Wilson a while back. His game is made for here, and although he has got a difficult draw, he doesn't get intimidated by the big-boys, which is a big plus.

The 1st quarter is about as weak as I have ever seen at The Crucible. It looks like 8 qualifiers (Carter apart) have ended up in that, and any of them could come through it. That said, it is an opportunity for Pang Junxu to have a decent run. I think quite a few people were expecting more from him this season. His form has been a bit mixed, but he grafted hard to win his 2 qualifiers (I was surprised Cao Yupeng was favourite to beat him) and he put up a good showing in the 2nd session of his match against O'Sullivan last year.
Pause Switch to Standard View 9/4 O'Sullivan for the title
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Report appformat April 20, 2024 9:21 AM BST
I think 365 were boosting to 3/1 but even that is too short.
have a feeling we'll see a new name on the Trophy again this year.
Report Latalomne April 20, 2024 9:26 AM BST
I think MJW showed how to beat him the other week (and Luca last year).  Apply some pressure and he will crumble.  Finding precisely who will do it is the tricky bit, but I fancy someone to do it at some stage.
Report gobelins April 20, 2024 9:51 AM BST
The big-plus for O'Sullivan backers is the schedule. He plays his 1st round match on Wednesday/Thursday, and then starts his 2nd round match on Sunday, and then plays every day until the end of the tournament. Therefore, this theoretically helps O'Sullivan avoid boredom and stay focused. On the other hand, a similar schedule for J.Higgins appears to be a negative, as the day-in, day-out, schedule for him from round 2 onwards would see him playing every day from Saturday 27th April to Monday 6th May - 10 straight days, and you'd have to think that would catch up with him at some point especially given his difficult draw.
Report stu April 20, 2024 10:07 AM BST
I think another plus for Ronnie backers is motivation - he still has that 'record' titles to aim for this year.

He will pretend he's not watching that...but he is, for sure.
Report thegiggilo April 25, 2024 12:41 AM BST
Now you know why,no one ever turns up against him ever..13/8 could be a Wilson O'Sullivan final though.
Report SlippyBlue April 25, 2024 10:27 AM BST
Sportsbook on here were going 100/30 and I put in a decent bet but they only let me have a tenner.
Report thegiggilo April 25, 2024 12:56 PM BST
He was 4/1 9/2 for months,all you have to do is back him in the Autumn he was 4.8 on here a couple of weeks ago..
Report the.mad.dog.man April 26, 2024 11:49 AM BST
osullivan all he does is moan f... of to china please
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk April 26, 2024 11:55 AM BST
Agreed. The woe is me attitude wore thin a long time ago. Just play at stfu. Look at the people with real problems in the world. Like the oppressed poor in Saudi Arabia that thicko Ronnie forgets on his journey of greed. He couldn't care less. Pass the whizz Jimmy
Report gobelins April 27, 2024 9:24 AM BST
I thought this could be tricky quarter for O'Sullivan with Jackson Page first-up Whoops possibly The Hawk in R2 Whoops and possibly Gary Wilson after that Whoops

O'Sullivan is now just 2/7 for the quarter and 2.68 for the title. Maybe Ryano will take him out Whoops
Report wondersobright April 27, 2024 2:45 PM BST

Apr 25, 2024 -- 10:27AM, SlippyBlue wrote:


Sportsbook on here were going 100/30 and I put in a decent bet but they only let me have a tenner.


plenty 3/1 on the machine slippy

Report SlippyBlue April 27, 2024 4:28 PM BST
I've got 4.80 Ronnie going back to 28th March Wonders and all rates down.

I was trying to top up @ 100/30 but no dice apart from £10.
I very rarely used S.B. on here though. Hope you're in good form b.t.w. Happy
Report pandora1963 April 27, 2024 7:55 PM BST
He'll have his work cut out with trump if they meet, don't see that being easy for ronnie at all
Report The Dragon April 29, 2024 6:29 PM BST
im on at 3.66
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