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flag of goats
12 Mar 23 08:43
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Date Joined: 16 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 442 | Blogger: flag of goats's blog
With hardly anyone in great form Ding, Murphy & Allen must have a chance this year?
Class of 92 showing signs of age and questions to be asked over Trump, Sslby and Robertson.
In the tier below Wilson (both of them) and Hawkins could run a big race but surely aren’t good enough to win it.
Who have I missed out?

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By:
appformat
When: 12 Mar 23 10:27
Vafae, Carter, Lisowski all playing well and could peak in form during the WC.
Usually back Smurphy, but 11/1 is way too short for me
including the qualifiers its nearly a month of propper Snooker ,looking forward to it.
By:
elisjohn
When: 12 Mar 23 14:25
ballrun always seems to perform well here, as does hawkins , nice price around 55s on here,  but everyyear we write off ronnie and kick ourselves after 1rd  when the 6s goes to around 5/2
By:
thegiggilo
When: 12 Mar 23 21:32
Not me backed him already,same every year as long as he's through the first round guaranteed decent position and with loads of turn ups this year in the 1st round looking at the way most are playing..he's the first port of call.I backed Murphy at 33s months ago as well,i'm not convinced Selbys going to play,if it's depression then he won't be enteringShockedand even if he does 1st round knockout beckons playing awful.Looks a lottery if the usuals don't perform,wouldn't surprise me if Robertson won just because he's had a nice restful season probably been hammering the practice table same as O'Sullivan will be fresh as paint.
By:
Gin
When: 23 Mar 23 14:55
https://twitter.com/Nick007J/status/1638875488067424256

For those that are interested, the above link has a graphic showing how the qualifiers will pan out.
By:
stu
When: 25 Mar 23 12:48
Is Ronnie's injury bad - see he mentioned an elbow injury recently, surely not a good sign over a marathon like the WC?

But still trading jollie, of course, so guessing that means it was minor.
By:
stu
When: 25 Mar 23 12:57
With some possible key doubts about them, I've so far just laid Selby and O'Sullivan - basically two of the greatest players in the world the only two reds I've got Laugh
By:
NtownClown
When: 25 Mar 23 14:51
Jack Lisowski hasn’t been playing well at all. I’d love to see him do well, everyone can see he’s got it… but

I’ve watched every game of his this year, he keeps touching his shoulder like he’s injured.. (or maybe hates the shirts)
Also, he’s averaging a 40 break per game. That’s not enough to win anything.
His price should be 40s 50s. I’ve seen low as 22s. Shocked by that.
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 11:45
There are only two possible results:

Someone else knocks Ronnie out - Trump wins
Trump plays Ronnie at any point - Ronnie wins

Murphy, you must be joking. All the things which stop him winning it have still not been addressed and he will be found out, shoddy safety and terrible tactical play (worst in top 32 imo), hits it too hard. Same now as in 2005. Selby and Robertson can't be backed, Wilson couldn't win a club handicap off scratch, Allen would be a runner if he's managed to persuade himself to stop taking ten minutes over every shot all of a sudden, Lisowski great great talent but will never win a tournament because he lacks belief and bottle, Hawkins and Carter decent standard but will lose to the first real top player they play.

Think that leaves Higgins and Williams, they should both be too old to win it now - Higgins is but Williams will still take plenty of beating and could win it IF he doesn't get embroiled in any long mnatches, think they denude him of his stamina and leave him vulnerable in the latter stages of the comp.

Hopefully Ding will qualify, he's due a decent run in it and he has the game to beat anybody ever if he's hitting it well.
By:
stu
When: 27 Mar 23 12:07
jed - you not worried Ronnie has complained of an elbow injury - before this marathon event that will be hard on the body and mind?
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 12:16
Not really - Hendry won it with a broken elbow, and Ronnie is just as far clear of this field mentally as Hendry was of his contemporaries, if not further at the moment.

Also the lack of match practise is not the issue for him that it might be for some, he's won it after a season off before when he wasn't in the same mental shape as he is now.

Bottom line stu, he's miles better in every department than anyone bar Trump, but Trump is not playing anywhere near as well as he has been in the last few years and the defeat in the Final last year was so poor I don't think he'll cope mentally if he has to play Ronnie now, when he had built up a bit of a sign over him previously.
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 12:20
Higgins, Ronnie, Williams and Selby have won 18 Wcs between them, it's such a massive horses for courses event and the other three, as I said Williams potentially aside, can not be backed with any confidence.

I don't think any player currently playing has won it more than once since those three turned pro in 1992.
By:
stu
When: 27 Mar 23 12:23
I'd agree Ronnie playing well is clear in standard - but that's a big caveat given the possible physical doubts, and the fact he just go AWOL at any moment as we know.

He isn't a young Hendry either, so I think if there's something physical at all it will play mind tricks on him here.
By:
stu
When: 27 Mar 23 12:28
I'd also question his current form level - lost to Noppon and Pengfei last two tournaments proper. Is that good form?
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 12:41
There are players you need to worry about their form, but if you're talking yourself into opposing him because he's lost a couple of short matches I'd question that approach.

Ronnie is so far ahead because he fears nobody, and they all - all - fear him. I don't know how much snooker you play, but that is the biggest factor of all.
By:
stu
When: 27 Mar 23 12:43
Yep, I do agree on some of the positives for him, just questioning some of his known weaknesses too. If anything gets into his mind too much we all know how that goes too for him...
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 13:23
Not sure that's such a factor nowadays, and not at Sheffield particularly. He knows there are pockets of Hendry evangelists still, and he wants them to know who the main man is. I'd expect him to be more motivated this year than ever.

Again though as I implied in my first post, he can be beaten. If Cahill can beat him there, anyone can. But he has to be off his game mentally, and I don't think he will be.
By:
gjohn101
When: 27 Mar 23 13:27
As things stand, O'Sullivan would be seeded to face Ryno in last 16 which I think we'd all agree is quite favourable. Depending on matches this week that could change to Gary Wilson or even Ding. Ding would be the interesting one there, some glimpses of form this season and is dangerous on the right day, as seldom as it has been.
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 13:32
Ding can actually play at Sheffield too, reached last eight six years out of eight at one point.

Is it true gentleman that only he and Bingtao have reached last eight among the Chinese players? Not looked it up but think that's right.
By:
stu
When: 27 Mar 23 13:38
I think that's right - though Ding has the RU medal I suppose to also add in.

If he plays like he's playing now though, it won't matter Laugh
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 13:40
That's always the great imponderable - will they actually turn up?

Hard game -I can be utterly buzzing, flying, next time I go in the club can't make a 50 and I've no idea why.
By:
Latalomne
When: 27 Mar 23 13:51
Honestly, I don't buy the "Selby can't be backed" viewpoint.  He played some really good stuff last week (all sides to his game) and says he's practicing plenty again.  Any mental health concerns you might have had about him have, IMHO, been allayed.  As you say, The Crucible is very much a horses for course venue, and Selby is certainly a horse who loves the course. 

Judd is the one of the front three in the market who I couldn't entertain, but that is purely form based.  If he could somehow relocate his spark, he obviously could win it, but on recent evidence that looks highly unlikely.
By:
gjohn101
When: 27 Mar 23 14:03
Not 100% on that jed but it sounds right anyway. Not actually flying the flag for Ding as such, just think he'd be a bit more dangerous last 16 opponent than sf or final one. But so hard to predict as we know, one thing in his favour I think is he's settled again after stress of covid when he was away from family for long stretches.

I get selby wrong every year so don't know what to think this time! If price is big enough I'll have no issue finding value there and as it stands, he looks like being in the "good" half of the draw.

As regards current form, this is always the imponderable for me. As jed says above, the world's is such a unique format, I'm never sure how much significance to attach to performances in lead up tournaments. Though can see it's reassuring if the one you fancy has a few w's to his name!
By:
Latalomne
When: 27 Mar 23 14:13
Totally get that re current form, mate, but I don't think we've seen a Judd lacking in confidence like this for a good few years.  His head looks scrambled half the time.
By:
gjohn101
When: 27 Mar 23 14:34
Yeah that's fair mate. I did one time think Judd might think about relaxing a bit more through the season and make sure he was primed to reach Sheffield with his A game but don't think he's got the mindset for that for better or worse. And isn't he on record on more than one occasion as saying the world title wasn't the be all and end all?

Am inclined to think though that ronnie really does want that 8th title. He'll deny it naturally but am sure he does care about posterity and eclipsing Hendry would be a big deal for him as was drawing level.
By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 14:44
Judd was playing badly leading up to the Masters, and during it. H won that tournament with a B game he hasn't had very long, and that is a huge thing for him mentally. He's won other tournaments with his arris hanging out but not Majors. I think there is much less chance of him losing to a mug in the first couple of rounds than there has ever been, and only Ronnie beats him best of 25 and above now.
By:
gjohn101
When: 27 Mar 23 15:10
Ballrun been mentioned above and certainly think I'd be more inclined to take him at 60-70 than either higgins or mjw at half or even a third of that. Rankings right now would seed him to face Allen L16 which is ok even given latters good season imo. I'd love to see Allen go well but not so keen to back that with anything more than sentiment tbh.
By:
Latalomne
When: 27 Mar 23 15:27

Mar 27, 2023 -- 2:44PM, jed.davison wrote:


Judd was playing badly leading up to the Masters, and during it. H won that tournament with a B game he hasn't had very long, and that is a huge thing for him mentally. He's won other tournaments with his arris hanging out but not Majors. I think there is much less chance of him losing to a mug in the first couple of rounds than there has ever been, and only Ronnie beats him best of 25 and above now.


All true about him winning the Masters, but he didn't beat anyone who's playing well in doing so - hell, Ryno's the only one who's even here!

Since then he's lost to Tubbs, Mark Davis, Dan Wells, Ali and Jimmy!  I seriously doubt too many of the big guns will be fearing him currently.

By:
jed.davison
When: 27 Mar 23 15:33
His form has been poor, but I wouldn't really worry about his form in Feb/March when he's got weeks to prepare. We need to get used to the idea that very few Major tournament last fours over the next five or six years will not feature Judd Trump.
By:
Latalomne
When: 27 Mar 23 15:34

Mar 27, 2023 -- 3:10PM, gjohn101 wrote:


Ballrun been mentioned above and certainly think I'd be more inclined to take him at 60-70 than either higgins or mjw at half or even a third of that. Rankings right now would seed him to face Allen L16 which is ok even given latters good season imo. I'd love to see Allen go well but not so keen to back that with anything more than sentiment tbh.


Ballrun definitely fits the horses for courses angle, as does Baz, to an extent.  Other than that lights-out performance against Shon, it's almost impossible to think of a match where Butch has played well this year, though!

LTT's been playing pretty well without getting very far in events, but he's another who the format suits.

There are a few at bigger prices who I think are interesting, but you are taking on trust that they'll be effective over the trip.

By:
Latalomne
When: 27 Mar 23 15:36

Mar 27, 2023 -- 3:33PM, jed.davison wrote:


His form has been poor, but I wouldn't really worry about his form in Feb/March when he's got weeks to prepare. We need to get used to the idea that very few Major tournament last fours over the next five or six years will not feature Judd Trump.


Two years ago, you would have thought it was an absolute given.  Now, particularly in light of some of the things he's said since, I am really not so sure.

By:
gjohn101
When: 27 Mar 23 15:50
That's it lats, I'm a fan of the horses for courses angle and LTT is near top of that list. Took me a while to appreciate just what a formidable operator he is around this track and I definitely will be nibbling that 120+ on offer as he's one I'd trust to come through qualifying. Thing about Butch, there's a huge gap between his A and Z games too, not as bad as ding maybe but up there, but I'd take the chance on him around here more than most of them and the fact he looks like being in the easier half of draw increases the appeal for me.

Definitely part of the fun looking for a potential breakout star. Not been many of those recently, but will have a pop at one or two anyway.
By:
stu
When: 27 Mar 23 17:35
Theppy would be a great long shot selection, if only he could hold his head together for more than 10 seconds. He's a great talent.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 27 Mar 23 18:14
If  O'sullivans got ryan day in the last 16 that's another easy draw that makes him a 2/1 shot coming out of that match already tops..
By:
Latalomne
When: 27 Mar 23 19:10

Mar 27, 2023 -- 3:50PM, gjohn101 wrote:


That's it lats, I'm a fan of the horses for courses angle and LTT is near top of that list. Took me a while to appreciate just what a formidable operator he is around this track and I definitely will be nibbling that 120+ on offer as he's one I'd trust to come through qualifying. Thing about Butch, there's a huge gap between his A and Z games too, not as bad as ding maybe but up there, but I'd take the chance on him around here more than most of them and the fact he looks like being in the easier half of draw increases the appeal for me.Definitely part of the fun looking for a potential breakout star. Not been many of those recently, but will have a pop at one or two anyway.


Agreed about Butch, mate.  That match against Shon that I mentioned, he was literally unplayable.  This season, though, his match winning record is well down on last season's, which was also down on the previous season's, and you (well, me, anyway) have to start wondering whether time is starting to catch up with him?  He's not exactly in great shape compared to his peers (I find it truly frightening that he's only 3 years older than me!).... 

Long-format is such an alien environment that it's not really any wonder players have been few and far between in breaking through, I don't suppose.  A few I've thrown a few quid at at really big prices are Jamie Clarke, who's gone well there before and should have beaten LTT the year it got ugly (1000), Tian Pengfei (700+), who's got a really good temperament and is possibly going under the radar a bit this season, LMEY, who REALLY impressed me with his tactical game against Selby last week and who has been winning a ridiculous number of frames this season for someone who doesn't score at all well (1000), and Xiao Guodong (600+), who is getting into the habit of going deeper in tournaments on a fairly regular basis.  I do think he panics a bit against the bigger names when the pressure comes on, but he's getting better at that, and he has won a match at the venue before.

By:
gjohn101
When: 27 Mar 23 21:17
Long-format is such an alien environment that it's not really any wonder players have been few and far between in breaking through, I don't suppose.

Could not possibly agree with this any more mate, nail absolutely firmly on the noggin and i think this touches tangentially on the standards question. If you're an aspiring kid now, your whole universe is built around short format snooker, that's the world you live in and mentally prepare yourself for. What % of the tour wouldn't play a match beyond BO11 the entire season? I'd say it's fairly high and there are probably some pros who'd go years without ever playing a proper long form match at all. The crucible is such a culture shock for these guys, if they get there at all, because they're simply not conditioned for it and don't really have any means for doing so. So I believe anyway.

Haven't really got much inspiration as regards choices, need more thinking time. Tian an interesting one for sure, definitely going on the possibles list for starters.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Mar 23 13:21
Hendry and White have no chance of qualifying so that dream has gone for anyone that thoiht it could happen,
By:
jed.davison
When: 28 Mar 23 13:44
I'm not talking up Jimmy's chances this year, but do you think we are only seeing the start of his revival? The fact is that he looks a totally different player to a couple of years ago, I know he's putting it in big-time - some of the bad habits he'd got into it was quite heartbreaking to watch him at one point. He couldn't have been backed to beat a decent amateur, mate of mine turned him over in a pro-am.

I've just got a sneaking feeling that this is not some brief revival.
By:
Latalomne
When: 28 Mar 23 13:47

Mar 27, 2023 -- 9:17PM, gjohn101 wrote:


Long-format is such an alien environment that it's not really any wonder players have been few and far between in breaking through, I don't suppose. Could not possibly agree with this any more mate, nail absolutely firmly on the noggin and i think this touches tangentially on the standards question. If you're an aspiring kid now, your whole universe is built around short format snooker, that's the world you live in and mentally prepare yourself for. What % of the tour wouldn't play a match beyond BO11 the entire season? I'd say it's fairly high and there are probably some pros who'd go years without ever playing a proper long form match at all. The crucible is such a culture shock for these guys, if they get there at all, because they're simply not conditioned for it and don't really have any means for doing so. So I believe anyway.Haven't really got much inspiration as regards choices, need more thinking time. Tian an interesting one for sure, definitely going on the possibles list for starters.


Absolutely, mate. 

Just knocked up a formula in Excel and I reckon 113 players who have competed on the main tour in the last 2 years have not played a match beyond BO11.  There's a slight chance I might have missed a few matches in the 2021-22 season, but I think 2022-23 is complete.

By:
jed.davison
When: 28 Mar 23 13:47
On which subject actually, why isn't that Dawson dude shouting about Jimmy's win over Trump from the rooftops, why wasn't he when Ali won that comp earlier on in the season? These are real human interest stories which have a chance of gaining the game some media coverage it doesn't otherwise get much of.
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