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gobelins
13 May 21 19:01
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 833 | Blogger: gobelins's blog
The 2022 version is still over 11 months away, but it's worth opening a thread to keep an eye on developments until we reach April 16th 2022. The latest odds are:

J.Trump 7/2
M.Selby 11/2
R.O'Sullivan 6/1
N.Robertson 13/2
K.Wilson 16/1
J.Higgins 18/1
S.Murphy 18/1
S.Bingham 33/1
M.Allen 40/1
Y.Bingtao 40/1
D.Junhui 40/1
M.Williams 40/1
J.Lisowski 50/1
B.Hawkins 66/1
A.McGill 66/1
S.Maguire 80/1
A.Carter 100/1
D.Gilbert 100/1

125/1 Bar

It's probably still a couple of years too early for him, but 40/1 Bingtao looks reasonable enough at this early stage.
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Report Angoose May 14, 2021 9:35 AM BST
David Lilley will shock the world Excited
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk May 14, 2021 12:17 PM BST
Lay Neil Robertson.
Form drops off a cliff when he hits Sheffield
If it it wasn't for a monumental bottle job by Martin Gould he would be a no time winner Shocked
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk May 14, 2021 12:18 PM BST
When is the next wonder kid going to emerge?
That list looks like same old same old to me.
Report gjohn101 May 15, 2021 12:57 PM BST
I demand a market on Robertsons excuse when he gets knocked out early. This years "i didn't have enough room to walk into my shots" was an absolute pearler.
Report gobelins May 15, 2021 8:46 PM BST
7/4 Once I'd reached my target of 70 centuries for the season, I'd achieved my season's goal and lost my focus.
3/1 I've really struggled during this new lockdown. People in the UK don't realise how hard it is for overseas players.
4/1 I've really struggled since we came out of lockdown, with going to Australia to see my family. People in the UK don't realise how hard it is for overseas players.
5/1 When my opponent makes me play at over 20 seconds per shot, I know my game just isn't suited to The Crucible.
10/1 The chairs at The Crucible aren't very comfortable.
50/1 No excuses, the better play won.

Others on request.
Report gjohn101 May 16, 2021 10:33 AM BST
Not bad, though i think table conditions is due a respin very soon so would be my market leader. After that just needs a novelty price or two, such as travelled to sheffield tasmania instead of sheffield uk 1000/1, that sort of thing.

Seriously though, i know it's all just having a bet but think I'll leave it to after xmas and just hope there might be a fresh name or two towards the top of that market. It's slightly depressing looking at it!
Report gobelins May 16, 2021 10:58 AM BST
I've been thinking about K.Wilson's last 2 Crucible visits - which on the face of it seem to enhance an already impressive Crucible record. In 2020 it seemed that the manner of his SF win against A.McGill took too much out of him mentally, and he couldn't recover in time for the final. However, given that R.O'Sullivan was also put through the ringer in edging out M.Selby, and looked quite flat himself on the opening day of the final, Wilson missed a huge opportunity to lead overnight. Wilson seemed happy just to be in that final, and he looked tired, to me, at he start of Day 2.
This year he played well, sometimes very well, in patches, but he also went missing in patches - something, he has not previously done at Sheffield (other than towards the end of last year's final). He seems to have embraced the mindset that he needs to win more frames in one visit, with the number of century breaks he makes acting as a measure of his improvement. In the final tournament before Sheffield this year, the Championship League, which Wilson won - his primary source of satisfaction seemed to be the fact that he made a record 23 centuries in a professional tournament which surpassed N.Robertson's 22, in the same tournament in 2014. After winning the title he said "I was putting myself under pressure to make centuries all the way through the group because I was told I had a chance to beat Neil's record a while ago".
Maybe, Wilson believes the number of centuries he makes is the best way to move to the next level, and ultimately win more titles, but does this compensate for what he appears to have lost? The way he lost successive frames at The Crucible - 5 against G.Wilson (1-0 to 1-5), 5 to B.Hawkins (9-4 to 9-9) and 8 to S.Murphy (12-9 to 12-17) are hugely worrying, and are, in part, a result of him continuing to take the positive shot choice on. That said, he missed a couple of reds at point blank range in the final session against Murphy - and he went out quite meekly in the end. It seemed clear that Murphy's earlier fist pumps and (successful) attempts to get the crowd on his side rattled Wilson, and once Murphy got on a roll Wilson was unable to change his game to combat it. In response to some mild criticism of Murphy's fist pumps from Wilson, Murphy's reply was very telling, saying "There is much more to winning major snooker events in front of live audiences than just hitting the cue ball in a straight line and putting balls in pockets, there’s a lot more going on. Maybe that’s a stone that Kyren hasn’t looked under just yet."
Given that Murphy has wrestled constantly to find the right approach for himself, Wilson would do well to heed this advice. Maybe, he is still trying to find the right balance for his game, but perhaps he has now become too aggressive. He still looks a potential World Champion, but despite reaching a final and SF in the past 2 years, there remain some question marks as to whether he will be able to take the huge step from genuine contender to World Champion.
Report gobelins May 16, 2021 11:24 AM BST
I'd forgotten about table conditions gj - that's probably why I would never have made it as a bookie!

Despite my reservations about Wilson - 16/1 looks reasonable enough, given that he is someone who seems to thinking about his game all the time. You would hope, and expect, that he would look at his collapse against Murphy and be honest enough to realise why it happened. Bingtao looks overpriced at 40/1, as he is the one player who seems to have a lot of improvement still to come. His form last season, apart from at The Masters, was generally poor, but you wonder how the lockdown has affected him. We seem to accept the lazy view that the Chinese players (as a group) just get their heads down and practice even harder, but he has only just turned 21 and he must be missing his family, as must most of the young Chinese players. He still doesn't have that higher gear that most of the top players have, and therefore we probably need to wait at least another couple of years to see him at his best, but there doesn't look a lot of value elsewhere at this stage.
Report gjohn101 May 16, 2021 11:47 AM BST
Some really interesting points there gobe. Would share a lot of that assessment of kyrens game at the minute. He's there or thereabouts but there is something missing and i think you're not a million miles from putting your finger on it. Could do with a chris henry type to sort out a few mental issues imo, someone to help him take that last hilary step to the summit. Dunno who he works with right now.

That centuries thing really bugs me. Wasnt it murphy who had 6 centuries in  one match last season and still gotbeaten (by allen iirc). And then allen himself got beaten at sheffield despite having a load of tons. The whole thing is overblown, it's phil yates looking back at his stats and deciding a guy must have played well because he'd a couple of tons.

Think you're correct on Bingtao too fwiw
Report gobelins May 16, 2021 12:10 PM BST
I know he was working with Barry Stark, but he/they have clearly prioritised changes to his technique. Maybe it's an on-going process, and there will be some work done on improving him mentally going forward. But, despite him being seen as mentally strong (and generally he is) there is clearly work to be done in this area, and this World Championship has highlighted his flaws. I had reservations about him this year on the back of his heavy defeats to J.Higgins and M.Selby. His interviews were so downbeat, and they suggested that he wasn't in a great place mentally for Sheffield. But, then he won the Championship League making all those centuries, and it seemed to re-invigorate him. But, as we know any weaknesses are exposed at The Crucible, and his were against Murphy.

I agree about the obsession with centuries, and what irritates me even more is when there are a couple of tight, tactical, frames - you get the commentators almost apologising for it, with the commentary going along the lines of - 'we all love seeing the century breaks but sometimes these frames can be just as exciting'. Funnily enough, most people find these frames even more exciting...
Report Blackrock May 18, 2021 11:55 AM BST
Can't see anybody at bigger odds threatening apart from  Lisowski and Bingham. JL isn't far away from winning a few ranking events this year, though he still misses absolute sitters at times when you think he might kick on.

Ballrun is quality and too big a price for his ability. Back to Selby who has 'balls of steel' and quite likely to win another 1 or 2.
Report gjohn101 May 18, 2021 6:05 PM BST
Binghams a funny one for me, he'll do nothing for ages and then just pop up one week looking like the best player in the world. Been a pro a long time and has had 2 good world championships in all that time, just cant predict when he's going to turn up imo.

Gobe, you say kyren is mentally strong but at same time i think we can both agree he went into last years final pretty much already beaten which, to me, shows a deficiency of some kind. And what disappointed me against murphy wasn't him losing the lead or even the match, but the lack of response when murphy pulled ahead. I actually thought kyren would settle at that point and maybe even rally, but it didn't happen, like he just accepted he was beat and waited for the end. As you pointed out, he has a tendency to go missing for sustained periods in matches and again I'd say that's likely a mental thing, can hardly be technical anyway.

That said, i do like his attitude, his willingness to accept his shortcomings and try to improve them. Work to do but he can definitely get there.
Report jed.davison June 2, 2021 7:52 AM BST
Why would you not back Selby? He is demonstrably the player most suited of the entire field to the unique demands of Sheffield, and it's only a freakish last few frames against the so-called best player ever last season that keeps him from five out of the last eight Championships.

There is always the chance that Trump could go there fresher than the last couple of runnings, but such is his stranglehold of the minor events that that seems unlikely, and despite all his ranking wins it still looks to me like a mental issue when he gets to the biggest stage of all.

Re: Wilson, while I agree with the general sentiments about the overblown importance of centuries, in his case I think it does have some merit - his major flaw is that his cue ball control is generally only a level or two above a quality club player and is the last non-mental issue he must confront. I think the work in progress comment earlier is the key point in his case but my own feeling is that he is still some way off being a world champion - if he is ever to become one.

Robertson I've written off years ago - I can't have players on my mind who can't concentrate for two matches in a row but are quite capable of spending weeks solid playing Call of Duty, Bingtao like Wilson is a very good player without the extra polish - yet - to be World Champion, O'Sullivan could just as easily lose to an Amateur in the first round as win it, and Higgins and Williams must have had their days by now imo.

I make Lisowski a runner - after flatlining for years he has improved dramatically in matchplay terms in the last couple of years and has all the talent a World Champion must have. That said, I'm not sure he is the killer one needs to be, but he could be one of those players - perhaps ultimately like his friend JT - who can put it all together one time to make it his year.

For me, 11/2 about a four-time winner with the skillset and time to win several more is way out of line - he should be a very strong favourite and I suspect when his time is done he will have won more than any player since Joe Davis.
Report elisjohn June 2, 2021 11:08 PM BST
im certain that during the season you,ll get about 8/1 on selby at some point, hes not a 11/2 bet for me , but agree with your comments , again though ill be having ballrun , mcgill,  on my side , but not below 60s
Report brentford June 3, 2021 4:23 PM BST
Just picking up on Trump - it's a little concerning that during the period at which he's been almost indisputably the best player on the tour (3 seasons) , he only has one world title to show for it,

just some random views on some of the others mentioned...Lisowski still looks miles short of the kind of consistency and b or c game to win the number of sessions required at the Worlds

Mark Allen is now in danger of having largely missed his window...the fact that a number of players are playing well in their later career is no guarantee that he will...appreciate he's only 35 currently but not a very healthy 35 and needs to prove his cue issues are resolved in the coming season.

Robertson's crucible record if not already a major concern before this year certainly has to be now as he went into it in pretty good nick and as an aside couldn't agree more about all the excuses that come out...just use some heavy blue chalk if it comes to it and you'll fry his head !

Ron still can but with his only recent success played for the most part to a very different backdrop you'd want a fair price which remains something you're unlikely to see with fan and reputation money punting him at every opportunity.

Wislon I still think has potential despite his 'a game' probably not quite matching the elite just because he's prepared to scrap it to an extent many aren't, decent amounts of single table set up experience as well..

Hawkins too often not winning the big matches, Bingham despite a high level this year surely on borrowed time for his best....Williams revival largely been and approach to the game (ultra attacking)  tough to take such a marathon tourny.

Higgins makes a bit of interest - not least on the level he showed he can reach this season but also recently suggesting he's aiming to get a bit fitter which in the longer format has to be of some value in retaining concentration and freshness.

Seilby's last 2 efforts (only losing the SF to Ron in 2020 on a bit of O'Sullivan magic and good fortune) and a more general return to form allied to age make him a very worthy fav at this stage.

Murphy a tough read as he's looked capable of adding another World's at different stages of his career for some time without often going deep at the Crucible but has to be buyoed by this season...

and inevitably Bingtao still best of the 'youth movement' but looks as though still needs his game to progress despite his Masters success.
Report gjohn101 June 9, 2021 3:41 PM BST
Good posts there, agree on a lot of it. Interesting that selby was being virtually written off 2 years ago, "gone at the game" supposedly, and now you've speculation he'll win more world titles than hendry. Who knows i guess, be some going if he did anyway.

Meanwhile, great to see all the fresh young talent emerging from q school:

Event 2 average age of 4 qualifiers - 44.25
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