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gobelins
06 Mar 21 08:10
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 1,877 | Blogger: gobelins's blog
Just 6 weeks to go now. A mere 42 days. Hopefully, Hearn doesn't throw in a 128 player, 2 day tournament, between the end of the World qualifiers and the start of The Crucible, so the players can have some preparation time.
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Report gjohn101 March 26, 2021 12:55 PM GMT
I wouldn't be putting people off backing trump at 3/1, just yesterday puts more doubts in my mind about him. He may feel grievances about certain things, but that doesn't explain to me why he looked so out of sorts and stroppy, like he was sulking at times. Hendry had a bit of a pop at him and i thought it was fair enough. When judd underperformed at Sheffield last year, excuses were made for him then too, the usual crucible curse stuff or whatever else was ailing him. Always thought there was a chance while he was dominating the season that he'd run out of puff or just start to lose his mojo. Just not fully convinced yet that judd is straightforward when it comes to the mental side of things.
Report gobelins March 26, 2021 8:31 PM GMT
It has definitely raised some questions about him gj, and I'll have to give it some thought between now and post time. And, watching Robertson today, it looks like he now enters calculations - and that's not something I thought I'd be saying a few days ago. I've never really fancied him at The Crucible, and each passing year has re-enforced the view that he is someone to oppose there. But, he looks very fresh and very focused and he has been very strong in every department today. Assuming he finishes Selby off then his seeding of 3 or 4 at The Crucible will depend on whether he wins the final, and that could be a big factor. Selby's current inconsistency is a big worry at the moment, and his past couple of outings have revealed a huge gap between his best and his worst, which hasn't really been evident to this extent before. There seems to be more questions than answers at the moment.
Report elisjohn March 27, 2021 8:39 AM GMT
elisjohn • March 11, 2021 6:40 AM GMT
the only reason that im not piling in to ronnie is, im bloody scared every year that he,ll drop a bombshell, that he isnt turning up, but otherwise  near 6/1 is terrific value as the giggilo says hell be 6/4 at one point,  robertson on here now  around 14s , another thatll shorten dramatically id say.

typical didnt get onCry, only 3 weeks Happy
Report gjohn101 March 27, 2021 9:38 AM GMT
Good stuff from robbo this week. Playing very fluently, not second guessing himself or overthinking basic shots like he usually does. If he did that for 2 weeks at the crucible, he's probably world champion again. Still a big if for me, struggle to have that faith in him.

Still, as i keep saying, they've all got weaknesses. Robbo at 14s was a pretty fair price and Judd is getting to a fair one too, if you fancy them.
Report mr_sykes March 27, 2021 8:24 PM GMT
robbo playing well alright,trump best player all season and might just be catching up with him now,hawkins coming back into a bit of form,higgins has been playing well too but value probably gone,wilson got to final last year,could be 10 years before he's back in another one,took trump a long time to get back to one,could be open this year,selby has gotten stronger in the past as tournament has gone on but he has to get throught the first couple of rounds first
Report elisjohn March 28, 2021 7:23 AM BST
i cant resist the 80s on here on bingham Wink£25 at 81.35Cool
Report gobelins March 28, 2021 10:14 AM BST
elis - Bingham may play Brecel in the final qualifying round, so that is potentially a really difficult match for him pre-Crucible. I can't argue with the price you've got, but I'm wary of backing qualifiers at this stage, in case they don't make it.

Trump has drifted back out to 4.6 on here now on the back of improved form, and support, for Robertson. I'd had a few quid on him at 4.6 and 4.7 a few weeks ago as his quarter at Sheffield looked decent enough, and still does, as long as he has regained his focus. But, I suppose that is partly the reason for the drift.
Report gjohn101 March 28, 2021 12:20 PM BST
Judds quarter is very interesting. Qualifier, Gilbert, Murphy going on seeding. But could easily be Yan Bingtao instead of murphy and Yan is type of player i could see troubling judd if he's below par for some reason.

Then again, for all murphys obvious flaws, i'm not sure Yan has ever done enough to be less than half the price on the outright. Would be interested to see how that match is priced up. But couldn't be on yan at his current price anyway.
Report gobelins March 28, 2021 1:04 PM BST
I agree gj, we could easily see Murphy v Bingtao being a "pick 'em" on the day should they meet. But, you couldn't be sure either of them will negotiate their opener on current form.
Report elisjohn March 28, 2021 2:08 PM BST
just anyone interested, 365 have prices up on to qualfy for main draw , bingham is 8/15, carter 4/5 eg
Report mr_sykes March 28, 2021 6:09 PM BST
i must be looning at the rankings wrong but i see trump,mcgill,ding and maguire in the same quarter and ronnie,yan,gilbert and murphy in another quarter?unless they havent been updated properly,could see ding give trump a game if they met in same quarter
Report gjohn101 March 28, 2021 7:47 PM BST
Your not looking at rankings wrong at all, just forgetting that ronald is top seed as defending champ!
Report mr_sykes March 28, 2021 8:06 PM BST
so who is #2 seed or whats the 1-16 for crucible?
Report wondersobright March 28, 2021 8:26 PM BST
#2 seed for the cruce will be judd
Report mr_sykes March 28, 2021 8:39 PM BST
ah right,yeah robbo and ronnie in same half of draw then along with ding,allen,higgins and maguire
Report gjohn101 March 28, 2021 9:00 PM BST
Robbo will move up to 3 after he finishes this off. In same half of draw as judd.
Report mr_sykes March 28, 2021 9:17 PM BST
yeah he's playing well
Report gobelins March 29, 2021 6:28 PM BST
The seeds line up for Sheffield as follows:

(1)  R.O'Sullivan v Qualifier
(16) A.McGill     v Qualifier
(9)  Ding Junhui  v Qualifier
(8)  S.Maguire    v Qualifier

(5)  J.Higgins    v Qualifier
(12) M.Williams   v Qualifier
(13) M.Allen      v Qualifier
(4)  M.Selby      v Qualifier

(3)  N.Robertson  v Qualifier
(14) J.Lisowski   v Qualifier
(11) B.Hawkins    v Qualifier
(6)  K.Wilson     v Qualifier

(7)  S.Murphy     v Qualifier
(10) Yan Bingtao  v Qualifier
(15) D.Gilbert    v Qualifier
(2)  J.Trump      v Qualifier

Just 19 to go.
Report gjohn101 March 29, 2021 7:32 PM BST
Very even draw this year i think. Usually get a softer half but looks fairly evenly spread down the field. Probably go for judds draw over ronnies at a push but it's marginal enough really.
Report mr_sykes March 29, 2021 8:08 PM BST
foulds gave allen a shout at a price on itv last night,could easily come through that quarter,trump and ronnie to win their quarters will be a popular banker double
Report elisjohn March 29, 2021 8:30 PM BST
cheers for that gobelins
Report gobelins March 30, 2021 8:41 PM BST
Here's a really interesting interview with N.Robertson, which explains how he's been feeling and why he's missed some events this season. I'm not sure exactly when it took place, but it is very recent. You'll need to copy the link into your browser.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HCDHXYviHM
Report elisjohn March 30, 2021 9:37 PM BST
that hair is absolutely terrible isnt it  !
Report mr_sykes April 1, 2021 8:51 PM BST
good interview,probably should have more than one world title by now,playing as well as ever but you need luck and the best player doesnt always win
Report gjohn101 April 2, 2021 9:54 AM BST
Interesting stuff gobe. Particularly the bit where he says he's tended to get done in the past by players grinding him down. I don't know how that would apply to rob milkins though, who's beaten him twice. Milkins has never ground anyone down in his whole career. Or fu or Holt for that matter. They're just players he shouldn't lose to, full stop.

That said, robbo is a good lad and certainly wouldn't begrudge him a second title. May be mentally in a good place so definitely thinking he's got a big chance this year. No more excuses about conditions or bad tables.
Report Latalomne April 2, 2021 9:23 PM BST
MJW's played some unbelievable balls-out snooker today - hardly missing a thing.  Definitely too big at 50.
Report gjohn101 April 2, 2021 10:00 PM BST
Lot worse bets than mjw i reckon. Was considering it a couple of weeks back when he was around 70-75 i think but didn't pull the trigger. When you consider the price of the likes of butcher and allen, there's nowt wrong with it at all.
Report gjohn101 April 2, 2021 10:04 PM BST
Actually i see that butcher has understandably drifted now he has to qualify, he's twice the price of mjw. Not too long ago it was almost exactly the other way around.
Report Latalomne April 2, 2021 10:08 PM BST
Seems I spoke too soon about today!  MJW loses from 2-0 up and quite a few up in the third Cry
Report Latalomne April 2, 2021 10:08 PM BST
But, yeah, he's still quite a bit too big, by my reckoning.
Report gobelins April 3, 2021 1:35 PM BST
gj - I took a look at those 2 Robertson defeats to Milkins, and after the first of them Robertson said it was the best safety he'd faced all season, if not ever! And, there were lots of tight frame scores. Milkins said himself that a lot of his improved form, that season, was down to his improved safety play. Maybe this defeat contributed to Robertson's belief that he needed to have a better safety/all-round game to compete at The Crucible. Let's face it Rob Milkins isn't exactly renowned for his tactical excellence is he? In the 2nd match, Robertson played poorly, and had changed his tip just prior to the match starting. Since his defeat to Selby in last year's Crucible QF, Robertson has repeatedly spoken about playing the game on his own terms, and not being drawn into long tactical exchanges. In previous World Championships, I've always felt that if Robertson didn't get away in front early on, he could be drawn into these long tactical exchanges - which is why I was surprised he pulled away from Wenbo and Hawkins the way he did last year - although, in fairness, Robertson was flattered by both winning margins. He was very positive throughout the Tour Championship last week, and his absence from lots of events since The Masters, whether partially or fully through how he was feeling mentally looks a big positive for him now.
I do agree that MJW still look over-priced, but that is one incredibly tough-looking quarter.
Report dr . atkins April 3, 2021 4:07 PM BST
not played on snooker for most of the season but fck me i am going heads down on a match in qualifiers waiting for more money to come up on here
Report gjohn101 April 3, 2021 7:33 PM BST
Since his defeat to Selby in last year's Crucible QF, Robertson has repeatedly spoken about playing the game on his own terms, and not being drawn into long tactical exchanges.

That's the key right there i think. I think he's been saying it for longer than a year tbh, it's not as easy to do as to say. We can talk about milkins or whoever else it is that beats him, end of day it's more about robbo himself and his retreat to a negative mentality that is to blame. It's not his opponent who forces him to play all those negative safety shots that do nothing but hand the initiative over almost every time. If he avoids that, like he's been doing in tour champs, uk etc, then he's got a serious chance. I still believe there's a chance he'll relapse into old ways. The crucible has a habit of doing that, but we'll see.

As for milkins, have to say rob is one of my favourite guys on tour, top bloke and awaits willing to speak his mind, guessing he's racked up a nice collection of fines by now. Also, can be near unplayable when he hits his stride which is all to rare but great to watch when he does. Should have made top 16 and won tournaments, bit of a wasted talent like tom ford.
Report gobelins April 3, 2021 8:18 PM BST
That's the conundrum with him I suppose. Like you, I can't help but think he'll probably revert to type at some point when he's put under the cosh. But, he looks in a good place now and maybe he won't feel that self-imposed pressure at Sheffield quite as intensely this year. At the Tour Championship it looked like he felt he could play with freedom, but will he be able to keep that mindset when it gets tight or his opponent is on top at The Crucible? I wonder.
Report elisjohn April 3, 2021 9:18 PM BST
yes gjohn , he said this before last world champs, for me he and selby want to play the perfect shot all the time, rather just get on with it, 2 weeks to go
Report Richie_Burnett April 4, 2021 11:34 PM BST
I thought Hendry would be favourite against WhiteCrazy
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2021 1:52 AM BST
Think it would be a bit of a shock if hendry won,whites still capable of knocking in 50s every frame given chances, i can see hendry having a couple of big breaks but missing loads of easy balls,you wouldn't wat to stake your life on it but if white plays well and hendry doesn't he could win easily.
Report Richard LL April 5, 2021 7:39 AM BST
I know it’s only the first round of qualifying, but I have to admit to been quite excited at the prospect
Report elisjohn April 5, 2021 8:11 AM BST
ive got butterfliesLaugh
Report Latalomne April 5, 2021 8:34 AM BST
There's some truly horrific matches in this first qualifying round.  I was really excited about today until I looked at the line-up last night... 

As for Jimmy being capable of knocking in 50s every frame when given chances, he's made 1x 50 in every 5 frames played over the course of this season, ie exactly the same as Hendry made against Selt (who was brilliant on the night).  Not saying Hendry will win, but Jimmy isn't all that.
Report elisjohn April 10, 2021 11:10 AM BST
7 to go
Report elisjohn April 10, 2021 11:47 AM BST
bingham 110sConfused, , im having a bit more i thinkWink
Report gobelins April 12, 2021 7:11 AM BST
Just 5 to go now elis, and Ballrun steps up to the plate today. He'd be the qualifier none of the seeds want to draw, if he makes it - but given his current form, he's got to get there first.
Report elisjohn April 12, 2021 6:02 PM BST
yes , cant wait Wink
Report elisjohn April 13, 2021 6:44 AM BST
big match tomorrow, bingham 1/2, v brecel 13/8 365.
Report elisjohn April 13, 2021 6:51 AM BST
bingham came down from 100s to 70s after yesterday, so if he wins tomorrow itll be in the 30s id say, and to think that i backed him at 40s end of january
Report elisjohn April 15, 2021 6:48 AM BST
great win for bingham yesterday, cant wait for saturday morning, draw 11.00 this morning , ronnie v bingham to open Grin ? or even ronnie v carter Cool?
Report elisjohn April 15, 2021 6:53 AM BST
someone mentioned on another thread, where are all these new kids on the block that hearn and davis keep going on about, agree , most of these 32 are nearer 50 than 30 Grin,
Report Latalomne April 15, 2021 8:08 AM BST
Was playing around looking at the numbers across the whole season v since Jan 1st last night. 

On that, Jamie Jones should be the rag (and by a distance), followed by Joyce, Liang, Kurt & Highfield.  Perhaps no real shocks there.  The next one is slightly surprising, though:  Tubbs!  Dave's numbers are pretty consistent across the year, but they're way off what those at the head of the betting have been doing.  At the other end of the spectrum, Judd leads the way, followed by Big Boy (slightly surprising to me because he hasn't seemed to play very well since his Masters win), Ronald, Shon (!), Lyu (!), Robbo, Mags, Ding (who always scores well but tends to do far call results-wise), Ali, JB, LTT, Wakelin (!), 2Pt/Kyren.  Spots 4-14 are covered little more than by a decent-sized horse blanket, though.

So seeds I reckon the qualifiers should be looking to draw are Selby (definitely vulnerable first round and scoring well into the second half of the field since Jan), Tubbs (not played well this year and doesn't like Star tables) & Dave (who even on his best form is likely to find a few too good).  And a couple of rags who could give you a run at big prices are Lyu & Wakelin.  Think there's value in Mags & (though to a lesser-extent) Shon.

Not sure I'll be back in time for the draw itself, but I look forward to seeing who's got who!
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 8:52 AM BST
Was hoping to see a market up for the draw and how often rob says "that's brutal." I'd have the spread at 15.5.
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 9:08 AM BST
Ronnie v captain
Allen v joyce

2 potential grudge matches anyway and sure there must be at least one other involving selt.
Report Richard LL April 15, 2021 10:46 AM BST
Qualifying was enjoyable if only marginally profitable, as a ROS backer I was contemplating who I'd like him to draw and I reckon a journeyman who knows the script such as Gould as opposed to someone with a likely more fearless attitude, but def not Ali, don't want to risk physical injuryLaugh. How many of the seeds will lose would be an interesting market, you'd think 3/4, but higher wouldn't be a huge suprise.
Report Richard LL April 15, 2021 10:49 AM BST
quite staggering that Joyce is approaching nearly £500,000 career earnings without having played at the Crucible.
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 11:00 AM BST
500k in 15 years, not a lot is it, especially if you take out 20% which would be what these guys spend on expenses. I'd say the money is what these guys are loving this week, its a big pay day. Sam Craigie has 2 young kids and has made 80k in 10 years. He could well make half that in just one tournament if he wins just one more match.
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 11:41 AM BST
Bad draw for Ding and Jack. Carter looked pretty on it last week, not the best match up for jack i think.

If Maflins in form, then selby have his hands full there. Wakelin & Lyu have chances. Ronnie & judd done alright, robbo too.
Report Latalomne April 15, 2021 12:05 PM BST
Mags v Jones, Lyu v Tubbs and Wakelin v Dave.  First named players have got to be absolutely delighted with their draws! LoveLoveLove
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk April 15, 2021 1:12 PM BST
I don't want to put a downer on it but I assume if anyone tests pos for covid they have to drop out?
If I back someone due to play say on weds and they test pos for it earlier, do I lose my money?
TIA
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 1:22 PM BST
If you back on match market, then bet voided and money back. On outright markets, you do your dough though.
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 1:26 PM BST
Ronnie dropped a whole point since the draw. No way i he could ever lose to a crucible rookie first round of course Wink

Allen, selby, smurph all sub 1.3, very short  Gilbert round 1.4 mark short too.
Report thegiggilo April 15, 2021 2:43 PM BST
Does o'sullivan do the draw unreal,that wll be 10-2 10-3 tops,incredible drawn in his quarter all the players that never beat him and prices going already not surprising though and whoever comes through the other quarter will be exhausted..Higgins,williams,selby and allen..
Report gobelins April 15, 2021 5:57 PM BST
The 2021 Embassy World Snooker champion 9/10 to beat Ricky Walden Cool
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk April 15, 2021 6:08 PM BST
Thanks gjohn.
Never had to factor covid into outright bets before
It is a real concern
Report elisjohn April 15, 2021 6:19 PM BST
daq and betway refunded on trump , betfair didnt
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk April 15, 2021 6:44 PM BST
thanks ej, i'll look around at o/r rules with other books
Report elisjohn April 15, 2021 6:47 PM BST
i actually laid trump in that masters  on here and had a back with the 2 i mentioned, so was a real nice bonus for me Wink
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 7:55 PM BST
gobelins Joined: 30 Aug 04
Replies: 77315 Apr 21 16:57 
The 2021 Embassy World Snooker champion 9/10 to beat Ricky Walden


Its a good price.
Report gobelins April 15, 2021 8:12 PM BST
It'll be an ever better price when he takes out the 6 times World Champion in R2 gj Mischief

Have you had a look yet gj? It's a funny draw isn't it? The 'big 5' - if I can call them that - appear to have avoided the really dangerous qualifiers. Lisowski must be fuming at the draw, even as a seed he's had bad draws here.

I've had a nightmare trying to get on the forum over the past couple of days - it kept telling me to log in, when I clearly had! I've changed my browser now, so hopefully I'll be OK now?
Report peckerdunne April 15, 2021 8:34 PM BST
So it's come to something when players you usually lay through the years now become the backs.I'll keep it small, Maguire 90 and Baz 40 both to win 1500 quid.

I'm having a more sizable 500 bet on Ronnie, as a trade at some point.

I have far too many questions over all the front runners, the qualifiers and rising new talentia are mostly all dog shitt under any pressure.So ill just take it handy and concentrate on winning the matches...
Report thegiggilo April 15, 2021 8:47 PM BST
Osullivan will be 7/2 saturday morning then after that match will be 3/1..
Report gjohn101 April 15, 2021 9:51 PM BST
gobelins Joined: 30 Aug 04
Replies: 77415 Apr 21 19:12 
It'll be an ever better price when he takes out the 6 times World Champion in R2 gj Mischief

Have you had a look yet gj? It's a funny draw isn't it? The 'big 5' - if I can call them that - appear to have avoided the really dangerous qualifiers. Lisowski must be fuming at the draw, even as a seed he's had bad draws here.

I've had a nightmare trying to get on the forum over the past couple of days - it kept telling me to log in, when I clearly had! I've changed my browser now, s


Do you use new forum or old? Use the old myself, never shows me as logged in but seem to be able to post away. Never liked the new forum, hate change, stick to the tried and trusted Wink

Probably do the same betting wise. Been humming and hawing about mjw for a while and ready to pull trigger now. Doesnt make sense to me he's bigger for his first match than selby, allen and murphy even though he's  drawn the rookie. You probably couldn't say he's been playing well enough but he's in a good quarter so willing to take the chance he might come good.

Carter another catching the eye, looked sharp last week. I respect mcgill and that's a good price, but will probably stick to match markets there.

If judd, ronnie & robbo are all still standing by last 8 it'll be 9/4 the field at the least.
Report Richie_Burnett April 15, 2021 9:53 PM BST
I can't wait for this to startHappy
Report johnnythebull April 15, 2021 10:13 PM BST
even tho Judd's form has tailed off a bit.it's his to lose imho tho'he's well capable of that

can't have the Rocket with stolen,he was pathetic against Robbo..smn will beat him and Robbo will find a way not to win

Selby's short on form and confidence but i could see him grinding his way inexorably to the final where he just won't have enough to beat Judd
Report elisjohn April 16, 2021 5:57 AM BST
i really do like bingham, its a toughie on sunday, but what a match, arguebly the best 1round tie ever at the crucible, if he gets through this , he can definetly beat even ronnie in this 1st quarter, like ritchie i cant wait, and its great that the crowd will bet there, and the same faces , the coventry fan, the 2 men that always sit together, one is an aussie, ( met then few years back ), , not sure how the hell you can have a full capacity in here though, and   crowds not allowed into eg racecourse, mind boggling sense , Confused, .
Report gobelins April 16, 2021 7:00 AM BST
gj - I use the new one, but I also tried to revert to the old one, but I just couldn't get in. It was particularly galling seeing it was asking me to log in, as I'd just put a bet on!! It's such a tough quarter though the one Williams is in, but he's definitely got a chance. I'd backed Selby a good few months ago based on his showing last year, and topped up when he beat O'Sullivan in the Scottish Open final, but he has been very inconsistent since. He is always vulnerable early on here, and if he's not right on it from the off he could lose early. My hope is that he scrambles through the opening rounds, as he'll be much stronger come the QFs. I've also backed Trump outright on here for bits and pieces. I logged onto the sponsors website, for the 1st time in years yesterday to try to get £100 on him at 7/2, but they restricted me to £10 Sad. It's ridiculous, they offer the price, tell you it's £100 maximum stake, and then stop you getting on. Still, it wasn't a surprise, and there'll be many on here in the same boat.

elis - that's a very early post - try to get some rest, you're going to need it to get through this year's marathon of the mind. There's just one day to go now, before the rest of the world becomes totally irrelevant for 17 days. There's no doubt Bingham v Ding is the pick of the ties, but in 2005 O'Sullivan (who was the defending World Champion) played Maguire (who was UK champion) in R1. And, it lived up to the hype - in what, for me, remains the greatest of all Crucible World Championships.

Just 27 HOURS to go...
Report Latalomne April 16, 2021 8:43 AM BST
I think there's decent value in 8 matches having now run the numbers.

Mags has had an up and down season, but his numbers have been very good since Jan 1st, and he can still mix it with the best.  He's comfortably outscored Jones across both the season as a whole and since then.  They've met only once, way back at the Aussie Open in 2014, where Jones ran out a 4-0 winner.  On the numbers, this is the game with the clearest daylight other than Judd v Highfield of the whole of the first round.  Mags has to be a play at 1.6+.

Dave & Wakelin's numbers are v similar for the season, but Wakelin's are far superior since Jan 1st.  Wakelin too big;

While conscious that one swallow does not a summer make, Cabby played the best snooker I've seen from him since here two years ago in his final qualifying match.  Kyren still a worthy fav, but Cabby at his best has better prospects than the 3/1 poke he looks like being, especially since Kyren's been a bit hot and cold of late; 

Tubbs has had a poor second half of the season, and his scoring has dropped off a cliff.  You could argue that means he comes here fresher than most, but he has a well-documented love affair with Rasson tables and has been quite critical of conditions anytime he's had to play on a Star/Strachan table.  Lyu, while posting inferior numbers over the season as a whole, is comfortably leading the way since January.  He does have a losing 2-0 H2H record to overcome, but he's currently posting the best numbers of his career; 

Baz is rightly fav (slightly better scoring across the season), but the last three times these two have met (including here in 2015), all three matches have gone to deciding frames, Baz winning two and Selt the other.  Selt's playing as well as he ever has right now and IMO is too big; 

There's very little between the numbers for MJW and Craigie.  MJW's current brand of snooker can be devastating, but it can also be reckless.  Sam's game is much more measured and assured.  They've only met once (WST aside) way back in 2015, where MJW ran out an easy 4-0 victor.  Craigie is definitely playing well enough to take advantage if MJW is missing, which he could well do; 

Shon's outscoring Mavis both across the season as a whole and since Jan, but there's not a huge amount in it.  Mavis is scoring better than he has since at least 2015.  Lifetime H2H is 5-4 in favour of Shon, albeit only three times since 2015, Mavis leading 2-1 in that time frame.  Shon the right fav but a bit too short for me; 

Selby has been scoring heavier than Kurt across the season as a whole and since Jan, but there's not a huge amount in it.  Selby's had a much poorer second half of the season, and Kurt comes here in decent nick after making it through the qualifiers.  They've played three times, including here (their last meeting), but not since 2015.  Selby just edged that match 10-9.  Selby can be vulnerable in first rounds of events, and Kurt will have good memories of last year.  Selby the right fav, but 4/1 is an insult to Kurt.

See you tomorrow! CoolCoolCool
Report Richard LL April 16, 2021 9:51 AM BST
Cheers Lat, I'll have a couple of quid on some of those. The price that confuses me is Bingtao, been trading steady 25-30 fair enough.
He ends up drawing Gould, which is potentially tricky, checked his outright price and it's barely flickered, check the match odds and he's 4/7 eh?
If Bingtao is 4/7 what price would some of the bigger priced seeds been against Gould? Williams/McGuire 8/11? 4/5? EvensShocked
Report Richard LL April 16, 2021 9:51 AM BST
Cheers Lat, I'll have a couple of quid on some of those. The price that confuses me is Bingtao, been trading steady 25-30 fair enough.
He ends up drawing Gould, which is potentially tricky, checked his outright price and it's barely flickered, check the match odds and he's 4/7 eh?
If Bingtao is 4/7 what price would some of the bigger priced seeds been against Gould? Williams/McGuire 8/11? 4/5? EvensShocked
Report Latalomne April 16, 2021 10:31 AM BST
It's an interesting one, Richard!  On the face of it, Big Boy's not played all that well since winning the Masters (and in truth, he wasn't pulling up too many trees before that).  I suspect people might just be looking for some reassurance that he's back on it.  If he is, the outright price makes more sense - depending on the manner of the victory, it could be quite a bit too big - long-format matches clearly suit him.
Report johnnythebull April 16, 2021 11:54 AM BST
or we could have the most soporific of potential finals in the pikey vs the jester

a treat so sumptious that catching Covid would feel like a blessing
Report england_v_south_afri April 16, 2021 3:40 PM BST
Just had a fiver on Bingtao 29/1 for interest.

Should be a great tournament.CoolGrin
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 6:25 PM BST
Lats, am with you totally on kurt. Whether he can match last years performance is debatable, but no way should selby be so short against him. Kurt is 33 to win that quarter, will probably have to have a bit of that even though I've mjw in that section. I think Lu is underestimated there as well.

Gobe, do you really think Q2 is the toughest? I think they're all about even tbh. If you'd avoided the big 3 in the betting, I'd say you've done ok tbh.

Been looking through the  specials markets and not much leaping out. 10s for a ton every frame not appealing, can remember this bet being done at much bigger prices and never landing.

Total frames line is generally over 85.5. Was hoping it might be a couple lower but i think it will land and will probably play it.
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 6:27 PM BST
*10s for a ton every match ffs Happy
Report johnnythebull April 16, 2021 7:07 PM BST
Triad money coming in for Ding..44 >  36
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 8:00 PM BST
Kyren talking about the sf last year on eurosport, still going on about it 8 months on like he lost the match. Terrible mentality really.
Report gobelins April 16, 2021 9:26 PM BST
I think the 2nd quarter is definitely the toughest. If you're Selby or Higgins - I think you'd swap places in the draw with O'Sullivan, Trump or Robertson. I can't have Ding, Bingham, Maguire or Jones - so who will beat O'Sullivan in that section? For me, it's McGill or no-one, and 50% of people will expect Walden to beat him!

There were rumours that there was something amiss with Maflin before the World qualifiers, I'm not sure what - but whatever it was (if it was anything) it didn't seem to affect him. He will be a good test for Selby, but I wonder if a crowd being present swings the balance even more in favour of Selby. I agree regarding Kyren - maybe he has a bit too much mental baggage this year, but even though each round of the draw looks potentially difficult, I think he'll be happy with it. I don't think he approaches a match with Robertson or Trump with any fear, and I'm not sure that is always the cases against O'Sullivan, Higgins and Selby. Of course, he's got to win 2 matches first, before that mindset even comes into play.
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 9:40 PM BST
Yes gobe, those quarters would look great if you took the big 3 out of them, but from mjw perspective, where would you want to be? Given choice I'd argue he'd stay right where he is. Maybe there's no great quarter for him at all, simple as that. Nowhere near a first rank contender, lets be honest about it.

Heard something about maflin, rumours floating about, but not taking it as anything that will impact his chances. Looked fine in qualifying and at those odds you can take a chance imo.

Hawkins v Wilson would be a tight match up i think, might give hawk the edge there if it happens. Crucible last 16 pedigree!
Report gobelins April 16, 2021 9:54 PM BST
Oh, OK, I see what you mean about where you would want Williams placed. He wouldn't be afraid of Higgins or Selby for that matter. I thought The Hawk would beat Wilson a couple of years ago, and Wilson dug in and come from behind. In a way, that match was a microcosm (I'm not sure that's the right word) of The Hawk's whole career. Lots of promise, but somehow he just manages to miss out. I can forgive The Hawk for last year's performance though, and Ali's defeat in the qualifiers, as they are primed for a spring campaign.
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 10:09 PM BST
Exactly what i meant, but i accept the point that its probably the most competitive looking quarter. Only for robbo slipping past selby into 3rd seed spot, i wouldn't be going anywhere near it.

What to make of the hawk? Played pretty well since turn of year, looks primed for peak bazz performance, but also blown it once against Judd this year as well as twice against ronnie, so its the usual leap of faith with him. Just be curious to see how a match up with kyren would be priced.
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 10:14 PM BST
In other news i see Cao Yupeng back on tour after coming through the chinese qualifiers. Got sick of waiting for ronnies breakaway tour so decided he'd have to go back the conventional route. Damn good player.
Report gobelins April 16, 2021 10:22 PM BST
I think you'd probably get 11/8 Hawkins if they met right now. He is always over-priced, even here, despite what he's done at The Crucible. There have been signs that he is playing close to his best in the past couple of months, but getting over the line has always been a huge problem for him - as we know. He is prone to some very untimely lapses in concentration now though, but I do think he will benefit from having a crowd present. It would be a fascinating match if they met.
Report gobelins April 16, 2021 10:27 PM BST
I didn't know Cao was back. He was very useful, and who knows where he'd be in the rankings now, had he not been banned. He got a lighter sentence for co-operating didn't he? You could argue that Quinten Hann was harshly treated when you compare the 2 'crimes'.
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 10:33 PM BST
Didnt hawkins only get into the masters because judd or someone else pulled out? I think his crucible seeding was looking in doubt up to the players, at one stage he was ranked in the 20s. So a big step up for him at the business end of the season. Was thinking 6/4 vs Kyren and i'd be a definite player. But a lot of road to traverse before then!

Ok mate, off for early night to be primed for the big break off. Chat tomorrow CoolCool
Report gjohn101 April 16, 2021 10:47 PM BST

gobelins 16 Apr 21 21:27 
I didn't know Cao was back. He was very useful, and who knows where he'd be in the rankings now, had he not been banned. He got a lighter sentence for co-operating didn't he? You could argue that Quinten Hann was harshly treated when you compare the 2 'crimes'.


Correct gobe. From memory they were basically going to throw the book at hann anyway cos nobody liked him and he'd basically already fcked off by the time they banned him. Cao only qualified today along with Zhang Anda and Yu Wize and one other, forget who, along with them. Yu Wize is the new chinese hype wonder kid.
Report elisjohn April 20, 2021 8:57 PM BST
well done binghamWink
Report gobelins April 21, 2021 10:24 AM BST
Have you recovered yet elis from yesterday's cliff-hanger? I see your man is now down to 36. My advice would be to sit tight for now, but bale out at 18 as soon as O'Sullivan crashes out on Friday night Cool
Report elisjohn April 30, 2021 9:08 PM BST
come on ballrun , i wasnt far off 4000 winnings the other day by trading and messing about its down to 1300  . havent enjoyed this tournament to be honest but getting excited now .Laugh, sorry didnt see your post havent been on this threadgobelinsWink
Report gobelins May 1, 2021 8:40 AM BST
No worries elis - your man is giving you one hell of a run (and a few heart attacks!)
Report gjohn101 May 1, 2021 9:54 AM BST
Fair play elis, great trading.
Report elisjohn May 1, 2021 10:27 AM BST
Cool, thx
Report elisjohn May 2, 2021 6:24 AM BST
Sad, now all trading done, i just want to relax and enjoy the final now without laptop by my side , trading every shot Laugh, overall profit is around a grand, on selby , 1600 on smurf, so ill put 200 on selby ( who i think will win) and enjoy ,

highlights of my betting
mcgill e/w at 100s
bingham also 100s

worst laying bingham when down to mgill
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