I think I'll probably do the most of my betting on the qualifiers in the final round, particularly given what you have just put up. Although, I usually can't resist one or two big-priced outsiders. I'll take a closer look once Cheltenham is over, but players like Carter, Dott and Perry are clearly more vulnerable in a best-of-11 than best-of-19.

The comms keep asking how Lesowski hasn't won a ranking event as yet, I wonder how he's got to so many finals.
He coughs up far too many chances for his opponents, goes for ridiculous plants and combos that even Cliff Wilson would turn his nose up at, he's got no C&D form, doesn't appear to have it in him mentally to beat Trump in a h2h and if anything his price looks a bit skinny..
..... so obviously I've backed him.

Hearn will probably make the early qualifying rounds best of 3, with a re-spotted black if it goes 1-1 to save time, given the way things are going. I agree that Lisowski has been unlucky in meeting the opposition he has in those ranking event finals, but the format of most of these tournaments suits him perfectly. I think there are plenty of qualifiers who would relish a crack at him at The Crucible.

he's too heavy. hasn't got the stamina for such a long-form tournament

I think Allen will need an awful lot to fall right to win at Sheffield. When you see him play the way he did to win the Champion of Champions event, you wonder how he can be 40 to win this - maybe he was 14s at that point. A major problem he has is his inablility to be able to raise his game, or even dig in, when things are going wrong against lower ranked players. His record, in the early rounds here, is very poor, and I heard N.Foulds comment that he thinks Allen would be a major threat if he can get through the opening couple of rounds and then meet the higher-ranked players. There may be something in this.
Allen, himself, has said that he has often struggled to find the right balance between staying calm and relaxed, and yet still being able to play with that bit of fire in his belly. He also lacks cue-power, and has made some technical changes in order to try to re-dress this - but this negative means he is more conditions-dependent than most of the other top players. There's no doubt that his physical shape doesn't help, but this is probably less important than each of the other points.

I agree on all that gobe. But i think snooker is 95% between the lugs, if feeling fit or losing a few lbs makes you feel better about yourself, maybe that can have benefits, but a guy like higgins, for example, doesnt give a frick about it, so it's of no relevance to him. Whereas, murphy seems to be obsessing a little about it this season. Not convinced any good will come out of it for him.

Spot on about allen, cue power and table conditions. I think he's a player that benefits hugely from modern table conditions but if they're not perfect for him, he tends to get stroppy and affects his performance. Again, all comes back to head space i think.

Oh and the other thing i remember thinking about allen was nobody loves those rasson tables they use for champion of champions more than him. The faster, the better for him. Play on them every day if he could.

Next week's Tour Championship.

K.Wilson's hopes of a big Crucible run look very unlikely based on that showing yesterday. On the back of his mauling from J.Higgins a few weeks ago at the Players Championship, he looked a shadow of his former confident-self yesterday. For a player who usually looks so positive (externally at least) he looked a beaten man a long way out. I've been looking back at his results this season, and although he has been very consistent, and there has looked to be some small evidence of improvement, these 2 recent defeats look very damaging. Maybe, N.Foulds hit the nail on the head when he said that sometimes any weaknesses can be exposed in a multi-session match, which aren't always evident in these short-format matches which are staple fare these days. He still has the Championship League Winners Group to play in, but it is difficult to see how he raise his game to a level that is likely to stand up to examination at The Crucible in such a relatively short space of time.

I thought hendry shaped quite well against selt who has been on a career heater of late

not an odds on fav though

Wilson made big changes a couple of years ago, but on the eve of this tournament he said: ‘Getting to the World final gave me a lot of confidence and I wanted to follow up that consistency this season, keep going, not make too many changes and just work hard.’ He made a big thing of his technical changes at the time, but although he is probably more consistent - there is no doubt the changes have not reaped the rewards he probably anticipated. His bridge hand just doesn't look like it is in a natural position being so close to the cue ball, but he has been keen to point out that the number of centuries he has made this season (which seems to be considered the accepted indicator of improvement) has increased, and therefore his cue ball control must have improved - which has been a major criticism of him in the past. His level appears to have plateaued, and his interviews following those defeats to Higgins and Selby were very downbeat. And, even though he has a very strong Crucible record, he does not appear to be in the right frame of mind to think he can win it this year.

He does that daft looking waddle into the shot.  I think he's a player who's making the most of the talent he has (ie not as much as some of the others).  He has improved his scoring a lot this season, but the old vulnerabilities against the game's best still remain.

Judd has got it in his head that he hates Celtic Manor, IMHO.  Turned up at the venue an hour before the start.  Moaned about the run of the balls from a very early stage (most unlike him), and clearly was struggling to judge the table (as was Baz, particularly early doors - and as he'd done at the previous PTC event).  Play the match at Stadium MK and get a different outcome, I suspect.

White v Hendry is an intriguing clash.  Jimmy has seen something of an upturn in form himself in the last month.  I'd still be a bit worried about Hendry being undercooked to qualify for The Crucible, but he looked like he could definitely get back into the top 64 and probably the top 32 with a bit more commitment (which he doesn't seem to have at this stage).  Not sure either of those statements apply to Jimmy.

That was like the Trump of old yesterday,looked completely under pressure never looked like winning and bottled loads of frames looks like world championship nerves to me,O'sullivan will probably win this an be cut to 7/2 for the worlds..

It has definitely raised some questions about him gj, and I'll have to give it some thought between now and post time. And, watching Robertson today, it looks like he now enters calculations - and that's not something I thought I'd be saying a few days ago. I've never really fancied him at The Crucible, and each passing year has re-enforced the view that he is someone to oppose there. But, he looks very fresh and very focused and he has been very strong in every department today. Assuming he finishes Selby off then his seeding of 3 or 4 at The Crucible will depend on whether he wins the final, and that could be a big factor. Selby's current inconsistency is a big worry at the moment, and his past couple of outings have revealed a huge gap between his best and his worst, which hasn't really been evident to this extent before. There seems to be more questions than answers at the moment.

Good stuff from robbo this week. Playing very fluently, not second guessing himself or overthinking basic shots like he usually does. If he did that for 2 weeks at the crucible, he's probably world champion again. Still a big if for me, struggle to have that faith in him.

Still, as i keep saying, they've all got weaknesses. Robbo at 14s was a pretty fair price and Judd is getting to a fair one too, if you fancy them.

i cant resist the 80s on here on bingham £25 at 81.35

Judds quarter is very interesting. Qualifier, Gilbert, Murphy going on seeding. But could easily be Yan Bingtao instead of murphy and Yan is type of player i could see troubling judd if he's below par for some reason.

Then again, for all murphys obvious flaws, i'm not sure Yan has ever done enough to be less than half the price on the outright. Would be interested to see how that match is priced up. But couldn't be on yan at his current price anyway.

just anyone interested, 365 have prices up on to qualfy for main draw , bingham is 8/15, carter 4/5 eg