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gobelins
06 Mar 21 08:10
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 831 | Blogger: gobelins's blog
Just 6 weeks to go now. A mere 42 days. Hopefully, Hearn doesn't throw in a 128 player, 2 day tournament, between the end of the World qualifiers and the start of The Crucible, so the players can have some preparation time.

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Replies: 168
By:
gjohn101
When: 06 Mar 21 09:54
Well, i guess the ultimate goal must be snooker365 so you never know. I bet judd would still enter it anyway! Like many previous a worlds, a lot of my thoughts swirl around ronnie. I had pretty much written him off for ever landing the 6th, yet here i am idly contemplating him equalling hendry the great. I've no doubt a crowd less, no fuss world championships suits ronnie down to the ground and likely contributed in some part to his title last year. Not certain what the status of this years tournament is yet, will wait and see on that front. Not even saying i'd back him, but if he really truly does want that 7th, then he's well in the mix. Of course the draw, avoiding judd too early and all that etc.

Lot of thinking to be done between now and then it has to be said.
By:
gjohn101
When: 06 Mar 21 10:52
Thinking about it, ronnie will be top seed, judd in other half so thats that bit out of the way.

If seedings stayed as they are currently ronnies path to 7 could look like: qualifier, mcgill, maguire,robbo, judd. Looks pretty good to me, though could look different by tournament gun.

As for others, robbo out of sorts a bit, higgins way too short, judd the best but didnt like way he shaped up for title defence last year. Doubts about them all in my mind.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 06 Mar 21 11:19
Best of 9 to begin with, final best of 17...........Laugh
By:
Latalomne
When: 06 Mar 21 11:52
There's big question marks against most for me - all have got plenty of defeats in them at the moment. 

JB was a play for me at 16s, but I'd not be getting involved at half that, though I do think he's got less against him than many on current form.  Robbo's downtime over Christmas could be significant, but you're guessing on what he's done recently, and there's not a lot of juice on what's known.  Ronnie looks extremely vulnerable against anybody who wants to play snooker rather than just pot balls.  Selby's not playing at all well.  Kyren generally plays well but it's not always enough.  Big Boy not playing well.  Tubbs too often his usual slack self, but definitely classy enough to win if he can be bothered.  Ding too often just outright awful, though as we know can turn it on like a light switch.  Butch, too inconsistent and questionable bottle.  Baz, quite consistent but definite bottle issues.  Shon is one who has improvement in him, but he'll need to.  MJW too loose.  2Pt, has the talent, but how does he possibly get over the line there (assuming he's not done so before then)?!  He's probably a trading price.  Mags is one I keep coming back to as being a price I like.  Has back class and when he's on it he's really good.  Too often he's not, but at near three figures, I'd be half tempted.  Dave's had a torrid year but is playing better now.  Still got to improve a lot for me, though.  Zhou looks like he's gone over the top.  LTT always got a chance over a trip to go deep, but he's still vulnerable to a power scorer...

Of the bigger prices still and maybe worth a few speculative pennies, Ali is a fair price around 200 (if he stays healthy), Ryno at 500 (having a better season), Liang at 600 (in and out and still a mentalist, but when he's good he's alright), Croup at 400 (playing fairly well generally), and Selt is possibly fair enough around the 500 mark, who seems to be showing a bit more belief and has a racked up a few decent wins this week.. 

My only bet to date is max stakes (25p - thanks SkyBet) at 1000 on Pang Junxu (who's not even in the market here).
By:
gjohn101
When: 06 Mar 21 12:21
Pang Junxu definitely worth a couple of shekels at 1000, some eye-catching victories this year.

Agree with most of your assessments lats. One you dont mention is Yan Bingtao, think he has something going for him but price is only okish.

Wouldnt put anyone off anybody but however draw works, mags would almost certainly run into ronnie last 8 if they both still there.
By:
gjohn101
When: 06 Mar 21 12:25
Actually big boy = yan i assume so you didn't miss him after all Laugh
By:
peckerdunne
When: 06 Mar 21 12:25
Big Boy not playing well.   Jan
By:
peckerdunne
When: 06 Mar 21 12:25
Laugh
By:
peckerdunne
When: 06 Mar 21 13:44
8 QUID to 5600 Jamie Clarke, first dab...
By:
elisjohn
When: 07 Mar 21 07:08
my fav 2 weeks of the year, bloody love the crucible, ill watch nearly every frame on tv, just hope some crowd are allowed in, ronnie hitting near 6.6 on here, same every year wins his 1rd match, hell be around 3.5and i say bloody hell why didnt i back him, so this year im taking the 6 plus on him.
selby will be a big player imo and hes my winner.One thing for sure itll be one of the old boys who,ll win again.

does anyone have an inkling to what the quarter finals probably would look like if seeds go through, someone did mention, ronnie v mguire in one  ?
By:
gjohn101
When: 07 Mar 21 11:46
As regards seeding, these 4 look nailed on: 1. RoS 2. Judd 8. Mags 9. Ding.

Too much money left to play for to be worth speculating on anything else, just those 4 are watertight (i think!).
By:
elisjohn
When: 07 Mar 21 12:03
so judd will play ding if both get through ?  thx

and if fans allowed i might buy tickets , if im right seed1 plays on table 1 dont they?
By:
gjohn101
When: 07 Mar 21 12:28
No, ding will be in opposite half to judd. Last 16 would be ding v mags and winner to play ronnie should they all come through.

Ronnies first round sessions already sold out from what i can see. Not sure how many tickets being sold.
By:
gjohn101
When: 07 Mar 21 12:35
The other lock would be Murphy at 7, not in tour champs so that wont change. So would then be a judd v murph qf on seeding.
By:
elisjohn
When: 07 Mar 21 13:14
great thx
By:
elisjohn
When: 07 Mar 21 13:18
oh i might include smurf in outright then, as wont play ronnie,( until final)
By:
gobelins
When: 07 Mar 21 14:50
I agree, there are question marks against many of the top players, and I've been scanning the bigger prices for a bit of value. But, the problem with backing a qualifier at this stage is they have to qualify! I cannot even consider S.Maguire, he has frustrated the life out of me for years. At 85 I can understand the attraction, but he constantly bails out mentally at the 1st sign of adversity, and I'd end up being annoyed with myself watching it, even if I only lost a few quid on him. A.McGill looks well over-priced (if he does end up seeded) but I'll hold fire until i know the seedings. Normally, I am keen to be against N.Robertson here as his chances are continually over-rated, and as such he is consistently priced accordingly, but I wonder if his relative freshness could be a big positive this year. I think it has finally dawned on him that he needs to prepare properly if he is going to win the Triple Crown events (his preparation for The Masters has generally been poor for years, not just this year). It's not original but Trump looks over-priced to me, despite him being top-priced 3/1 on the books. At his best, no-one will get near him (unless Higgins can re-produce his form from last week, O'Sullivan finds his elusive cue action.

I had a few quid on Selby after last year's showing, but the anticipated improvement hasn't materialised, and he is currently struggling. As always, he will be more vulnerable than most in the opening rounds. Anyway, 41 to go.
By:
elisjohn
When: 07 Mar 21 15:31
players i always keep onside at big odds are carter, dott, mark davis,mcgill, fu and hamiltonLaugh
By:
gjohn101
When: 07 Mar 21 15:57
Can understand why robbo gets talked up every year as blue chip alternatives are thin on the ground and bbc love him. But his WC record is poor, no getting around that for all he's a previous winner. Softest crucible world title ever if you ask me.

Anyway, a few long odds darts to contemplate. Zhou at 100, might yet make the seeds. Gould at 400, will all that practice with ronnie reap a dividend? Jamie Jones 1000. Pang Junxu, Lu Ning, neither on betfair list yet for some reason.

Also wouldnt thumb my nose upon MJW at 75. Bingham isnt far off half that and he's going to have to qualify.
By:
elisjohn
When: 07 Mar 21 16:02
will ronnie turn up if crowd allowed, didnt he threaten to not turn up last timeLaugh
By:
gobelins
When: 07 Mar 21 16:08
Afternoon gj - yes, it's been profitable opposing him over the past few years, and with only 1 appearance at the one-table set up since he won the title in 2010 he has major questions to answer at The Crucible. But, although I think he finally realises this now - I'd need to be really happy with his draw to even contemplate him at Sheffield. Zhou is definitely on the right track, but it's probably too soon for him (and to a lesser extent Bingtao) this year. There's plenty shorter that MJW who I'd fancy his chances against, but there are lots of questions at this stage - as always.
By:
gjohn101
When: 07 Mar 21 18:41
el - yeah ronnie did throw bit of a strop over the crowd thing last year. Judd wasnt too happy with it either if memory serves.

Gobe - if you laid out a list of positives and negatives for every player, I'd bet you wouldn't have more than a handful in the overall plus column. I think selby is in there personally, more solid than most of them, an a list candidate for me.
By:
gobelins
When: 08 Mar 21 19:27
Yes, negatives everywhere gj. Selby ticks most boxes, but not the current form one. Higgins is now very, very, interesting isn't he? We know he has the know-how on how to win matches here, even when playing below his best, but it will be interesting to see how his new technique stands up when he is put under sustained pressure. And, with a seeding between 5-8, he will theoretically need to beat 3 of Trump, O'Sullivan, Robertson and Selby. Just 40 days left now.
By:
gjohn101
When: 08 Mar 21 21:04
As regards current form gobe, i've always subscribed to the notion that the worlds is such a unique tournament and challenge that recent form is subsequently of questionable value. Not saying its irrelevant, just i'm never sure how much store to set by it. Remember selby in '16 i think it was, went into worlds in poor form and supposedly some personal issues as well, and went and won the damn thing. Or ronnie last year - dont think he'd won anything all year iirc. Just like this season intetestingly enough. And also, I'm not entirely convinced of selbys poor form anyway. Brown defeat was surprising admittedly and the beatdown from higgins was shocking, but i can't see he's been terrible apart from that tbh.

Higgins is there or thereabouts on current form alright, but again i wouldnt be betting on him to sustain it all the way at those prices. Looks pretty poor value to me right now.
By:
Latalomne
When: 09 Mar 21 09:14

Mar 6, 2021 -- 7:21AM, gjohn101 wrote:


Pang Junxu definitely worth a couple of shekels at 1000, some eye-catching victories this year.Agree with most of your assessments lats. One you dont mention is Yan Bingtao, think he has something going for him but price is only okish.Wouldnt put anyone off anybody but however draw works, mags would almost certainly run into ronnie last 8 if they both still there.


Sorry, John, I got tied up with other stuff in addition to Gib at the weekend and never came back to this.

Pang's having a great first full season on tour.  I've been raving about him for a good few months.  Seems to have it all, including a decent temperament.  Best "new" player we've seen in a good while, IMHO.

Big Boy definitely has better in him than he's showing at present, but I think his price is pretty ugly, TBH.  I've seen A LOT of very sub-par performances from him this season.  That's not to say he won't be fully tuned up for Sheffield, of course.

Must admit, I'd not looked at the draw when I made my comments above, so what you say about Mags is fair enough.  I shall probably still have a small nibble at some point, but I guess we might see bigger still when people clock the Ronnie collision path.

By:
gjohn101
When: 09 Mar 21 11:24
Yeah lats, i wasn't sayin that should put anyone off mags, but might have an effect on the market. Mags can do it on his day, we know that as well as his flaws. They're mostly all flawed, one way or another.

Only thing i'd say about BB is that masters victory over higgins looks that much better now in the light of what higgins has been doing. 5-10 ticks higher and i'd be on it like a car bonnet.

I see pang was in the qualifiers 2 years ago and gave maflin a good game after beating stuart carrington. Definitely want him on side. He's lost to Lu Ning twice this year but i suspect pang is the longer term brighter talent. They're two players i would pray to be avoiding in the qualifiers.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 11 Mar 21 01:08
Same old money buying expedition backing o'sullivan at 9/2 4/1 no doubt will be 6/4 at some point,same every single year win or lose,really could do with someone fresh winning it's like watching paint dry..
By:
wisewords
When: 11 Mar 21 01:13
Ronnie been texting you again Andy?
By:
elisjohn
When: 11 Mar 21 05:40
the only reason that im not piling in to ronnie is, im bloody scared every year that he,ll drop a bombshell, that he isnt turning up, but otherwise  near 6/1 is terrific value as the giggilo says hell be 6/4 at one point,  robertson on here now  around 14s , another thatll shorten dramatically id say
By:
Gin
When: 12 Mar 21 09:30
The qualifiers have been extended by two days:

https://wst.tv/qualifying-rounds-extended-by-two-days/


April  5-14th
By:
gjohn101
When: 12 Mar 21 10:21
6/1 may well be a decent price but only way ronnie goes 6/4 is if judds beaten. Judd will be favourite for as long as he stays in it imo

Good news re qualifiers. Always look forward to the draw as there is invariably a couple of interesting prices and value to be had.
By:
gobelins
When: 12 Mar 21 13:20
MJW has been slashed to 65 gj - looks like you've been busy!! On current rankings, which could still change, R.O'Sullivan would play A.McGill in L16 - which looks a big early test for O'Sullivan should they meet. So, every chance thegiggilo that your man will be 1000 not 6/4 after that match Devil
By:
gjohn101
When: 12 Mar 21 14:27
Definitely not my money gobe! Not a shilling put down yet. Get through Cheltenham first and then see what the coffers are like!

Licence will be sweating a bit on the WPS this week. Only 6k ahead of Zhou who has the chance to overtake him. Perry might fancy he still has a chance too.
By:
gobelins
When: 12 Mar 21 18:42
Yes, I'm hoping for a decent Cheltenham as well gj to give me a bigger warchest going into Sheffield (I would consider breaking even as decent!). Just hoping Licence can stay in front Zhou, although I do like Zhou, and he is probably equally worthy of a seeding - but I can't bring myself to follow the current "tournament" if I'm being honest. Fingers crossed Perry doesn't overtake the pair of them, although it would, at least, keep him out of the commentary box. I took another look at the Selby World title you were talking about, and he definitely went AWOL in both of his opening matches when in front and closing in on victory. I seem to remember we were discussing his perceived personal problems at the time, but if he does get through his opening couple of matches, no matter how unconvincingly, history tells us that he will come on a stone.
By:
elisjohn
When: 12 Mar 21 21:19
so the qualifiers end 15th and 1st round proper of the biggest tournament in the game 2 days later, imo ridicilous.
By:
elisjohn
When: 12 Mar 21 22:49
final trump 4/6 v ronnie 5/4 Grin
By:
gjohn101
When: 13 Mar 21 15:49
Remember when Fergal O'Brien beat Gilbert after that marathon 2 hour decider that finished round 2am friday morning and he was out against selby first thing Saturday morning. That was very harsh.

Gobe - not really following the current tournament either, just keeping an eye on the rankings is all. I agree on selby and actually think same thing might apply to judd too. Thought judds attitude was poor last year, whether defending champion shyte got to him or whatever, so will be interested to see how both of them get out of the blocks early this time.

Think about Anto, he hasn't lost a qualifier since his breakthrough in 2015 so maybe not such a big deal anyway. Crunching the numbers he's 18-6 at the worlds since 2015 and 5-1 in deciders (defeat to kyren last year). I know i've tended to downplay him a bit in discussions here, but i wouldn't argue with those figures at all. They scream proper world championships pedigree. If price did drift a bit, i'd be seriously contemplating a decent punt.
By:
gobelins
When: 14 Mar 21 09:35
I think Bingtao will be the same as well. It doesn't sound original now, but he just looks a Crucible player, and that was the case before he won The Masters. There's no doubt that the shorter formats used in most tournaments (and seemingly getting shorter) do not favour the likes of McGill or Bingtao, and it might be that they hit a ceiling rankings-wise because of it - although Bingtao looks to have lots of improvement still to come, particularly with his cue-ball control. Wilson also falls into the 'Crucible-type' category but it was a bit of a worry to hear just how downcast he was when Higgins beat him 6-1 in the Players Championship. He needs to take the positives from his run to the final last year, although he continues to have a mental block against O'Sullivan and Higgins, and to a lesser extent Selby. like you, I can't wait for the qualifiers, but when I looked at the provisional rankings I was surprised to see Bingham so far down, as he is someone who seems to thrive on the non-stop schedule. With the players ranked 17-32 having to play a best-of-11 before the final qualifying round, a few of them might get turned over against players who have already won 2 matches.
By:
gjohn101
When: 15 Mar 21 10:40
Yeah i think there's a bit in that, why i always feel a bit wary of form in the build up because the worlds is a totally unique test nowadays.

Dont know about bingham, can go from looking scarcely playable sometimes to looking absolute rubbish from what i see. Like a few of them. But was defending a lot of points this season, hence his bit of slide down the rankings.

Interesting point re qualifiers. Am doing a bit of trebor work here! Last year in R3 14 out of the top 32 seeds were beaten, invluding the top 3 (perry, carter, cabitano). Just one sample year, but definitely something to look out for. In the R4 matches the higher ranked player only won 8 out of the 16 matches. Would be interesting to look back on the odds on that.
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