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Latalomne
22 Nov 20 22:25
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Date Joined: 20 Jul 01
| Topic/replies: 36,714 | Blogger: Latalomne's blog
Starts tomorrow at 0900!

Was hoping B365 would have the TV tables for the morning session highlighted already, but they don't (hopefully we get four again, given it's the same venue, and there are some quite ugly looking match ups).  I've got to take my lad to college in the morning and won't have a chance to put anything together before play gets underway, so here's my thoughts now on five of the six matches that kick things off.  I'll leave you to think about the sixth for yourselves:

Tom Ford isn’t playing at all well this season, and his scoring is well down on where it normally would be.  Pang Junxu was rather brought back to earth with a bump last week after beating Tubbs in the second round of the German Masters qualifiers.  Even after that, he’s still outscoring Ford this season, and there is no way he should be as big as 3.5+.  This is someone who has also beaten Baz this season and scored well in defeat to Robbo. 

Davey Grace had one of the weeks of his life last week, reaching the semi-finals, before crashing out to Judd, 6-2.  On the face of it, he looks a big price against Ian Burns, who you would fancy him to outscore, but Burns isn’t a prolific scorer and can ugly things up a bit.  I’m a bit worried that it might be another of those Soheil Vahedi-type matches….  There’s also the concern that he might be a bit tired. 

Li Hang isn’t a player who has ever scored heavily, but despite that, he does win more than his fair share of matches, which suggests he’s quite tactically astute.  His scoring this season, however, has fallen off a cliff.  Fraser Patrick is also not a heavy scorer.  In fact, he and Li’s numbers this season are quite similar.  He’s still to show much on the tour, which is of concern, but I’m not utterly convinced he’s playing that much worse than Li at present.  Li’s likely to have a bit too much craft for him, but I don’t think I could be a player in the low 1.2s.

MJW’s not playing great this season, and he has lost to Paul Davison in the last couple of week.  His scoring’s still not been horrific, though.  Hancorn won the English Amateur Championship in February and turned pro at the age of 38 after earning his card at Q School.  His scoring’s not earth-shattering, but he has beaten Theppy already this season (who is admittedly a hot/cold player).  I don’t think there’s a lot of juice in MJW at 1.1, though he obviously is the likeliest winner.

Anthony Hamilton is yet to win a match this season, but his scoring’s not significantly worse than usual.  He’s met three players who have been in great form in Judd, Tubbs and Holty, to put some perspective to it.  The one eye-brow raiser is the defeat to Simon Lichtenberg, who did score unusually freely against him.  Xu Si is posting career-best numbers and is outscoring him slightly. He has won a couple of matches this season, most notably against Matt Selt.  The Sheriff is a tough opponent, and he deserves to be favourite on that basis alone, but he’s arguably short enough around 1.5, IMHO.

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By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 09:02
We do get 4 tables, Big Boy, Li Hang, MJW and Tom Ford. Cool
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 09:31
3 scoring visits not enough for Tommy Ford to get it done, 1-0 Pang.

1-0 Big Boy and Grace, too.
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 09:56
Pang's safety's not been good so far, and he's been a bit fortunate that Tommy Ford keeps breaking down when in the balls, but 2-0 it is.  Somebody in the market really loves Ford and keeps backing him at ridiculously short prices.
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 09:57
2-0 MJW, 1-0 Li
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 10:25
Just had a really weird Chrome crash (one of my first ever).  LV froze, all of the tabs became unresponsive, then the window reduced in size and sat central on my screen...  Closed it with Task Manager, but it then wouldn't open again without a full reboot...  Hope that's not going to become a regular occurrence.

2-1 Pang, 3-0 MJW, 3-0 Big Boy, 2-0 Li, 1-1 Grace
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 10:38
Tommy Ford's having a mare here. 

2-1 Grace, 4-0 MJW, 3-1 Big Boy
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 11:03
Pang's safety game's just not been good enough.  For all Ford's struggling to get breaks going, he's been left too many chances.  Will be delighted to be out of the mini-session 2-2.
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 11:04
3-1 Grace, 2-1 Li
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 11:20
5-0 MJW, 4-2 Big Boy, 3-2 Grace
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 11:39
Big Boy back to 4-3 Shocked
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 11:40
3-1 Li
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 11:50
3-2 Ford.  Pang really making this too easy.

6-0 MJW
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:00
5-3 Big Boy
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:13
3-2 Li, 3-3 Pang barring snookers
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:19
5-4 Big Boy! Shocked
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:27
HTF have you got away with that, Tommy Ford!??!
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:32
Big Boy misses match ball and sticks it
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:35
Maddocks blows it, two really good chances to take us to a Winona.  Big Boy 6-4
By:
wondersobright
When: 23 Nov 20 12:41
the caravan rolls on
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 12:51
Hello mate.  Alright?
By:
wondersobright
When: 23 Nov 20 12:55
all good mate just busy with racing
morning been any good for you?
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 13:16
Got a nice green on the Pang match. 

Got an electrician here now who's going to have to turn the power off, so switching to laptop.  Hopefully the battery is good enough to see me through to the end of the match!  LaughCry
By:
wondersobright
When: 23 Nov 20 13:18
Grin
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:10
Slightly late:

Dott suffered a shock (to me) defeat at the hands of Big Igor last week.  In hindsight, it might not have been such a bad result as it first appeared, with Big Igor going on to make the last 16 of a ranking tournament for only the third time in his career.  Dotty looked anything but happy in that match.  Ironically, the person he meets today is the one who lost to his conqueror in the next round, himself having caused an upset by beating Butch.  Jianbo’s not a big scorer at all, but he has made a good start to his professional career, notching four victory already.  I don’t see that there can be much juice in Dotty’s price.

Selby’s defeat at the hands of an inspired Lukas Kleckers came as an even bigger shock to me, and the German was unable to follow it up afterwards, losing 4-0 to Zhao Xintong.  Selby’s scoring has been OK this season without being scintillating, but I really didn’t see that one coming.  Michael White seems to be flying since losing his professional status, and he’s not being outscored all that much by Selby this season.  Selby does lead the H2H 4-1, but again, I’m not sure there’s much juice in his price.

Martin O’Donnell is starting to find his feet after a v poor start to the campaign.  His defeat at the hands of Lu Ning last week will have been a disappointing one, though.  After playing so well at the Crucible, Jamie Clarke really seems to have lost his way.  The last twice I’ve watched him, he’s played terribly, though his scoring is still better than what he was doing across last season as a whole.  The prices look bang on to me.

Scott Donaldson had another very good tournament last week before disappointing badly in the QF v Judd.  He’s scoring better than ever this season, and should comfortably have Lichtenberg’s measure, assuming he’s not feeling the affects of that defeat.  His chance is, however, reflected in his price.
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:11
6-4 Pang LoveLoveLove
By:
wisewords
When: 23 Nov 20 14:16
#livescore
By:
wisewords
When: 23 Nov 20 14:19
what happened to the Sheriff of Pottingham?
By:
wisewords
When: 23 Nov 20 14:20
also what happened to Ryan Day?
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:23

Nov 23, 2020 -- 8:19AM, wisewords wrote:


what happened to the Sheriff of Pottingham?


Not sure, mate.  I didn't see a score at all, and I didn't put Eurosport on this morning.  Would guess one of them pulled out.

By:
Gin
When: 23 Nov 20 14:24
Good shout re: Pang lats...
By:
peckerdunne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:24
COVID POSITIVE
By:
wisewords
When: 23 Nov 20 14:24
Pottingham didn't play and Day isn't playing. not sure on the reasons for both..
By:
peckerdunne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:25
This triple crown event Laugh has been destroyed i might add.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:26
tested positive
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:34
Hopefully Sheriff is OK with it, given he pulled out of the Worlds because of his fear of catching it from the dirty crowd.
By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 14:34

Nov 23, 2020 -- 8:24AM, Gin wrote:


Good shout re: Pang lats...


Cheers, Gin!

By:
wondersobright
When: 23 Nov 20 14:44

Nov 23, 2020 -- 8:34AM, Latalomne wrote:


Hopefully Sheriff is OK with it, given he pulled out of the Worlds because of his fear of catching it from the dirty crowd.


tested positive by PCR test usually means nowt lats
circa 7% of positive results are actual positives

By:
Latalomne
When: 23 Nov 20 15:08
1-1 Darling, 2-0 Dotty, 2-1 Selby, 1-0 Donaldson
By:
peckerdunne
When: 23 Nov 20 15:24
plaid mickey white
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