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winsamsoon
16 Apr 15 18:43
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Date Joined: 08 May 10
| Topic/replies: 741 | Blogger: winsamsoon's blog
Plenty of question marks about the top 3 in the betting and the defending champ. TBH I never thought Selby was up to winning it any year and Maflin followed by MaGuire/McGill could have him in trouble early on in this years tourny. 5/2 would probably be a fair price for Ronny if you could be sure he's going to turn up and give it all but thats a big if. His second round game could turn tedious and with his game in decline, this frustration could come to the fore here. Judd and Robbo 6/1 are both capable but could you really take 6/1 about either winning 5 games in a row.
Next in the betting is my selection, 11/1 Shaun Murphey, a changed man this year since he's settled down with this Irish bird. He really seems to be coming into form at the perfect time, has a lovely draw, basically straight into the quarters where he'll play the weakest of the top 4 seeds if Selby is still there.
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Report trebor April 16, 2015 7:39 PM BST
I don't want to spoil it for anyone but here is the result of this years World Championship.
Err well it is if you go by the head to heads since 2010, so the last five years head to heads, shootout not included and if there is a tie it goes to the player who won there most recent match, indicated by the underlining of their total, only two matches have brought together two players who have not met in the last 5 years and those two games have been awarded to the highest seed.

Round 1

Selby  1
Maflin 1

Maguire  0
McGill  2

Perry  2
Anda  0

Murphy  2
Hull  0

Hawkins  3
Selt  3

Allen  6
Day  3

Carter  0
McManus  2

Robertson  4
Jones  0

Junhui  4
Davis  1

Higgins  1
Milkins  4

Fu  2
Robertson  0

Trump  Higher seed
Carrington

Walden  0
Dott  1

Bingham  2
Williams  0

Williams  6
Stevens  2

O'Sullivan  Higher seed
Steadman

Round 2

Selby  2
McGill  0

Perry  1
Murphy  4

Selt  0
Allen  1

McManus  1
Robertson  0

Junhui  2
Milkins  0

Fu  5
Trump  9

Dott  2
Bingham  4

Williams  2
O'Sullivan  0

Quarter Finals

Selby  14
Murphy  11

Allen  1
McManus  0

Junhui  5
Trump  5

Bingham  2
O'Sullivan  9

Semi Finals

Selby  4
Allen  6

Junhui  1
O'Sullivan  6

Final

Allen  1
O'Sullivan  1

Well played Mark Allen!!

If Selby had made the final against O'Sullivan, Selby would have took it 6-6 having won their last meeting.
Report gobelins April 16, 2015 7:43 PM BST
I take your point about him being a changed man this year. Then again, after that disgraceful performance both on the table, and then in his interviews after R.O'Sullivan butchered him last year he needs to be. And, he may play Joe Perry in the 2nd round. The same Joe Perry that recently won his 1st ranking tournament. The same Joe Perry that led R.O'Sullivan 11-9 in Round 2 last year. The same Joe Perry that is currently ranked just 1 place below S.Murphy. That doesn't sound like a guaranteed passage straight into the quarters to me.
Report winsamsoon April 16, 2015 8:11 PM BST
Wow,had to check it up, Joe Perry is no.9 in the world. When you think that Hendry and Davis and co. were all in decline in their early 30s, it's amazing to think that Joe is peaking at 40.
I watched a lot of that tournament that he won and it was poor stuff in the main. There's nothing quaranteed for anyone here but I'd say Shaun is happy enough with his draw.
Report Angel Gabrial April 16, 2015 8:33 PM BST
Judd and Robbo 6/1 are both capable but could you really take 6/1 about either winning 5 games in a row.

Well someone has to win 5 games in a row. These two are more likely to this than a 12/1 shot which is why they are shorter in the betting. Hence the relative price.
Report appformat April 16, 2015 9:59 PM BST
Think a lot depends on how the tables are playing.
I'm expecting slow tables with lots of strange, bouncy cussions.
Report jed.davison April 17, 2015 11:05 AM BST
How can you back Murphy knowing that if he gets in the final and plays Ronnie, he is an absolute million?

There won't even be a great trade to be had, because Murphy won't be much shorter than 11/1 to win if the above scenario happens.

It's Trump's time. He's the best player in the world at the moment, and given his price says he would win this tournament twice out of fifteen times if it were played in current conditions i.e with all the players in their current form and mood, he is the value. In my estimation, he wins at least four runnings rather than the two his price suggests.
Report Angel Gabrial April 17, 2015 11:26 AM BST
Murphy is easy pickings for Ronnie or Trump over a long format. They both enjoy playing him as he is tactically naive. So Murphy would be up against it if he reached the final,although he does have a very good chance because he is 50/50 against Selby, Robertson and Allen but then if Selby gets to the final it would be a very evenly matched Trump, and Ronnie would not want to face Selby again.

Many different ways of looking at but Murphy won`t be winning.
Report winsamsoon April 17, 2015 12:16 PM BST
I'll be laying Ronnie in his 2nd rnd game, I just think if he gets into a battle he will fold. And on his form this year he'll won't be winning too many games comfortably.
Trump, I've backed the last couple of years, and while the long games suits him, he must be the most frustating player to have running for you. His tactics always give his opponent a chance. He likes an open table, and he always seems to be one miss away from losing a frame. I went hoarse roaring at the telly last year more than once when he goes all out for a pot exp. when he can play such good safety. I'd like to see him play the 'Shot to Nothing' a lot more.
I've done my bet with Boyles, money back as a free bet (£50) if Judd wins.

Who do you fancy Angel?
Report Angel Gabrial April 17, 2015 12:38 PM BST
I fancy Trump strongly to get to the final and the only danger would be Selby to get to the final. My betting interest aside, i would love to see Selby make the final again, i respect him more than any other player ever.

So i will back both, but regarding your comments on Trumps game, have you seen him over the last few months? He is far more patient and seems to be honing his matchplay skills and for me is hitting his peak as a player right now. This is his time.

Agree with you on Ronnie, his frustration will bob to the surface and be his undoing. He isn`t going to produce what he wants and that will finish him.
Report Angel Gabrial April 17, 2015 12:42 PM BST
I've done my bet with Boyles, money back as a free bet (£50) if Judd wins.

You will be getting this back! Personally if i was trading for Boyles i would give the money back offer if Ronnie wins. Just can not see it at all. Last year i was all over him but i see something now. I think he is finished as a World Champion. No more.
Report pandora1963 April 17, 2015 12:57 PM BST
Main bet Ronnie, small bet Mark Allen, very small bet Stuart Carrington(hoping he can win a couple of rounds then lay off)
Report trebor April 17, 2015 2:06 PM BST
There has been chat on the forum recently about players wanting more notification of when they will be playing, this is the one tournament of the year where two players already have a pretty good idea when they will be playing next year!!

Ding Junhui and Marko Fu get the same times nearly every year to cater for the Asian TV coverage of course, over the first 3 rounds between them they are scheduled to get 9 morning times, 3 afternoon and 4 evening, problem here is that Ding is not a very good morning player, he has hardly won a morning session at the crucible other than playing a lowly ranked player in the first round, the only change to this system was last year when Ding got 2 afternoon times?

Marco gets the double morning slot in the first round so at least Ding starts his first round match in the afternoon, I will be interested to see how his second session plays out if it is close, Mavis is a higher ranked player than he normally gets start this tournament.
Report Pokermonster April 17, 2015 5:21 PM BST
Very interesting statistics there, Trebor.
Report trebor April 17, 2015 5:27 PM BST
Actually I have just noticed a typo error, in the 2nd round I put Williams 2 O'Sullivan 0, that should have been 10 for O'Sullivan.
Report paddletoe April 17, 2015 8:01 PM BST
I used to love doing a big long roll up on the world snooker championship matches when I was at school. They always seemed a lot easier then when you had the changing of the guard between the new players coming through and the old veterans. On the rare occasions I had to pay tax I would just stick an extra 1/10 shot into my bet. Funny thing is I don't think I ever drew on any of these bets.
Report paddletoe April 17, 2015 8:05 PM BST
Trebor what do you reckon will be the total number of match centuries for the whole tournament. What does the computer say and what do you think?
Report trebor April 17, 2015 9:06 PM BST
I have no idea, guess it would be hard to say until you get an idea of how the tables are playing.

I do know however that it is 100 years ago this year that the first ever century break was made, as certified by the Billiards Association at the time. A break of 112 made by George Hargest at the Luciana Billiard Hall in Blackwood, Monmouthshire. rumour has it that people leaving the club later that night where heard to say that something must be done about the size of pockets on the modern tables!!
Report Angel Gabrial April 17, 2015 11:54 PM BST
Moondan must be a time traveler,no wonder he goes missing for so long!Laugh

You never fail to deliver exceptional information trebor. Thank you, and can i just say what a pleasure the snooker forum is.
Report Angel Gabrial April 17, 2015 11:57 PM BST
BTW i really hope Moondan is ok.
Report thegiggilo April 18, 2015 12:25 AM BST
He's gone off in his tardis to watch some decent snooker in the 90s,hopefully will be back for this years final fiasco!!ShockedCool
Report gentlemanjohn April 18, 2015 1:58 AM BST
Laugh

Did he get a ban for somethign or other? Hope he hasn't been nobbled the the Romford mob!
Report thegiggilo April 18, 2015 2:06 AM BST
He's just texted me from 2020ShockedHendry came out of retirement and won his 8th world title!!Surprised
Report gentlemanjohn April 18, 2015 2:16 AM BST
Yeah i saw the match report. McManus was desperately unlucky by all accounts to go in off the blue in the third and deciding frame!
Report thegiggilo April 18, 2015 2:26 AM BST
O'sullivans lost his hair and got a willie thorne comb over..
Report thegiggilo April 18, 2015 2:41 AM BST
Now known as Max wall O'sullivan!!LaughLaugh
Report paddletoe April 18, 2015 9:45 AM BST
If this was a sweepstakes competition and I had first pick I would like to be Mr Judd Trump. That's just a reflection of who I think is the most likely winner.
Not sure he is as great value as Jed says but for what its worth I have backed Trump and Ali Carter outright for a decent lift any of them wins.
Report gentlemanjohn April 18, 2015 10:02 AM BST
Did consider Carter with a view to trade but in the end went for Walden and Hawkins instead. Think both are quite fairly priced given they have a small bit of Crucible pedigree behind them, maybe get one or both down to single figures and it starts to get interesting!

Probably not but just happy to have resisted my annual investment, aka throwing good money after bad, on Fu
Report pandora1963 April 18, 2015 10:06 AM BST
is it my tv or is the pic cracking a bit on bbc2?
Report trebor April 18, 2015 10:16 AM BST
My pics the same but better now
Report charwell. April 18, 2015 5:52 PM BST
Selby has the temperament and all round matchplay needed and he now has CD form. So on on that basis he and Robinson look the best value as you never know what O'Sullivan turns up. Trump can look brilliant but when he is off he rarely wins, he is not a street fighter like Selby.

QED: Selby and Robbo

Outsider: 'Angles' Mcmanus worth a sheckle or two at a very big price as he is playing much better of late, loves the big stage and can conceivably win his first couple of matches.
Report trebor April 24, 2015 12:26 AM BST
So the first round saw 12 of the 16 with the better head to head record over the last 5 years get through, at Betfair odds that showed a 2.18 point profit.

There was two matches in round one that the head to head record was tied over the 5 year period and where split by the last meeting result, only three matches went to 10-9 in the first round and it was the two games with the tied head to head. and one where the outsider McGill who held a 2-0 head to head over Maguire defeated the favourite.

13 of the 16 first round favourite's won showing a .90 point profit to favourite backers again at Betfair odds but before commission.

Round 2 head to heads

Selby  2
McGill  0

Perry  1
Murphy  4

Hawkins  1
Allen  7

Carter  6
Robertson  8

Junhui  6
Higgins  1

Fu  5
Trump  9

Dott  2
Bingham  4

Stevens  1
O'Sullivan  6
Report winsamsoon April 24, 2015 3:37 PM BST
O'Sullivan 5/2 into 2/1
Robertson  6/1      9/2
Trump      6/1      9/2
Selby      10/1     7/1   20/1
Murphy     11/1     8/1    7/1
Allen      25/1    20/1
Ding       25/1    20/1

Basically all still standing after Round 1, tho Selby looking dodgy in Rnd2.
Robbo was the most impressive to my eye, but all of them were up against nobodys in terms of winning it outright.
Trump did his usual, played well but keeps the table too open, and might  have been going home only his opponent didn't show up the first night. I personally  can't see any improvement from last year.
It'll be interesting to see which Ronnie turns up in Rnd2, I think we'll fins out how much he wants it.
Shaun played well, but went for a lot that he shouldn't have, ie the 147 after 40 points and tough pots when he was within a few shots of winning the frame. I'm hoping it was because his opponent was useless but all the same He needs to up his safety in Rnd2.
Report Pokermonster April 24, 2015 5:07 PM BST
I thought Trump looked dangerous despite his tactical frailties, very confident.  I've had a bet in the outright market on the strength of his performance in the first round.
Report Angel Gabrial April 24, 2015 9:27 PM BST
His tactical frailties? are you sure PM. Trump is hardly frail in the tactical game these days.

If it was a horse race post race analyses it would read `Set a good pace, always in command, not extended, readily`
Report winsamsoon April 26, 2015 1:25 PM BST
And, he may play Joe Perry in the 2nd round. The same Joe Perry that recently won his 1st ranking tournament. The same Joe Perry that led R.O'Sullivan 11-9 in Round 2 last year. The same Joe Perry that is currently ranked just 1 place below S.Murphy. That doesn't sound like a guaranteed passage straight into the quarter to me.

Maybe Joes got a twin, Goblins?
Report gobelins April 26, 2015 1:49 PM BST
winsamsoon - He must have!! Joe's been truly shocking, and S.Murphy hasn't had to get out of third gear so far. So, it's looking like routine progress so far for Murphy as you anticipated, and no M.Selby in the QF. It looks like you're going to get a big run for your money.
Report winsamsoon April 26, 2015 2:13 PM BST
Yeah, shocking. Murphy potting well but as we know it's a different game when you're  under pressure. Looking forward to watching Robbo now, didn't see the first session but from what I read here,  he's continued on from where he left of in Rnd1.
Report gobelins April 26, 2015 2:25 PM BST
Robbo's early tournament form has been vastly superior to anybody else's so far. The only concern would be that you know you cannot sustain that level session in, session out, for 17 days. He played to a similar standard against A.Carter and R.O'Sullivan in the Masters, before having a nightmare against S.Murphy in the final.
Report GRANTCKING April 26, 2015 2:40 PM BST
I like the look of ding and god so far, might dutch the 2
Report johnnythebull April 26, 2015 4:43 PM BST
Robbo's a flat track bully
smurph,ding a ling good potters but still miss an occasional easy ball to let an opponent back in
intriguing this year
Trump will mess up at some stage
looking forward to his match up with Ding
if Ding gets the jump on him could be a blinder
the winner to go very close
Report gawdalmighty April 27, 2015 12:46 PM BST
Robbo? Purely on the fact that, I think the mincing albino from down under adds no spark to the game is reason enough for me not want him in the final.

I'm liking either Trump or Smurph or the outsider McGill for the final this year. Hoping Ronnie's OCD kicks in and puts him off course.
Report BARROWBOY April 27, 2015 9:22 PM BST
Its turned out that the bottom half of the draw is much the stronger,with ronnie,trump,junhui & even bingham theres potential for some real long battles & whoever comes through that lot may well be over the top by the final.meanwhile the way hes playing robbo could easily come through the top half on the bridle.robbo wins it for me cos he'll get to the final the fresher player.
Report johnnythebull April 27, 2015 9:35 PM BST
sorry,guys,he's won his one & only WC
think he's a bit soft,personally
think the Hawk has a good chance provided he doesn't get too far behind early doors
plus not so long since Smurph mullered him
can't have him with stolen
Report winsamsoon April 27, 2015 10:36 PM BST
O'Sullivan 5/2 into 2/1 7/4
Robertson  6/1      9/2 10/3
Trump      6/1      9/2  5/1
Selby      10/1     7/1  ---
Murphy     11/1     8/1  11/2
Allen      25/1    20/1  ---
Ding       25/1    20/1  11/1

Heading for the quarters, Robbo has been the most impressive for me and the bookie.  However he's been like this before and then throws in a shocker. Plus the fact that he's an arrogant pr1ck that I can't stand, I really don't care who wins once it's not him.
Judd is no better than last year imo, but at 5/1 must represent the best value at this stage. If he gets past Ding and I think he will, I'd have him fave to beat Ronnie.
Shaun looks good but nobody has given him a challenge yet, I'm expecting him to get past McGill but a tight game wouldn't be any harm
Report thegiggilo April 28, 2015 1:22 AM BST
Unfortunately the dream finals rarely happen,could see a dire final if murphy and o'sullivan get through and major bottling by murphy in a poor final if that was the scenario!
Report appformat April 29, 2015 8:09 AM BST
Judd now 9/4 fav for the outrights.
Market seems to think he'll be playing Bingham next....
Report Angel Gabrial April 29, 2015 8:41 AM BST
Not really app

If he plays Ronnie @ 5/6
And Robertson @ 8/11

It`s near the 9/4 mark
Report winsamsoon April 29, 2015 9:02 AM BST
If he plays like he did yest it doesn't matter,  but he back to 0 again tomorrow and again Sat. Looks like he only has himself to beat.
My one doubt is that after a good game, Judd previously has tended to push the boat out too far in his next. Even still,  he's  a 2/5 shot in my book to beat whoever he plays in a semi.
Report Angel Gabrial April 29, 2015 9:43 AM BST
Ronnie is tactically astute and will show Trump plenty of respect and for the first time in a very very long time actually go into a match as the 2nd fav perhaps.

This may effect the mindset of both players, it will be a fascinating match. I hope Ronnie does get through.
Report winsamsoon April 29, 2015 10:01 AM BST
To me Ronnie has shown nothing so far, I suppose tho if he can't get motivated for a semi against Trump he may as well throw his hat at it.
If/When Judd goes 2/3 frames ahead, I can't see Ronnie fighting.
Report ccd April 29, 2015 11:06 AM BST
Only a handfull of posts ago this was said:
"Robbo has been the most impressive for me and the bookie.  However he's been like this before and then throws in a shocker."

Pretty shocking session yesterday. Lost the first two today...
Report Angel Gabrial April 29, 2015 12:42 PM BST
Robbo peaked too early. You can see his game requires of plenty of intensity, takes it out of him in the long haul while Trump is thinking about which sports car to buy as he bends the cue ball around the angles.
Report appformat April 29, 2015 11:08 PM BST
Judd now evens for the outrights? Laugh
Report johnnythebull April 29, 2015 11:20 PM BST
best lay 4 a long time
Report paddletoe April 29, 2015 11:24 PM BST
Johnny you must have went through the field at least twice this week tipping players up and then knocking them down!
Report winsamsoon April 29, 2015 11:27 PM BST
Amazing how many free money, unbeatable certs have turned into chokers and bottlers in the space of a few hours this week.
Report winsamsoon April 29, 2015 11:50 PM BST
Trump    6/1  9/2  5/1  1/1
Murphy  11/1  9/1 11/2  5/2
Hawkins 50/1 33/1 25/1  7/1
Bingham 50/1 40/1 25/1  7/1


So we're down to 4, don't think anyone one here fancied Ronnie so he really was a false fav.
I've  put up 2 bets on this thread, Murph at the beginning and Trump before the quarters here so I'm sitting pretty at this stage, what could go wrong??
Trump should brush Bingham aside with ease, Ronnie never showed up and Bingham has got as far as he's going.
Murphy , Hawkins will be a lot tighter, Baz really coming into form and will make it tough but I'm sticking with Murph. A tough game here I think will stand to him in the final against a Judd who for the first time in this championship won't get things his own way
Report paddletoe April 30, 2015 12:04 AM BST
Btw Johnny, some very funny posts from you this week. Not sure if you intended them to be humorous but some of them made me laugh.
Report thegiggilo April 30, 2015 12:15 AM BST
The ding one was very funny,couldn't stop laughing for 15 mins stomach was hurting whether he mean't it to be I'm not sure..
Report appformat April 30, 2015 7:33 AM BST
Just wondering how much that match took out of Hawkins last night.
Have a feeling Smurfy could steamroller him in this match.
Report scarecrow April 30, 2015 7:59 AM BST
i am personally surprised that hawkins is 2/1 to beat the magician.that looks good value to me.proven at the venue,long format.obviously in his best form at the minute.shaun can go for a bit much at times and is prone to missing an easy ball from time to time,perhaps he struggles with concentration at times.so hawkins may pick the pieces up.my biggest concern with hawkins is that he may have played his final already and come out slowly in the first session at dinner time today and get behind.but overall he looks fairly priced on whats happened this week and on previous good form at the venue.
Report ccd April 30, 2015 11:24 AM BST
He may be fatigued Barry. Some effort last night. Can we also make a case for Barry winning by virtue of Robbos 'pointless' nervous breakdown in the second session?
Has Murphy had a poor session in this year's WC? Have seen him the least out of the four left but i think the answer to this is no.
Report winsamsoon May 3, 2015 9:07 AM BST
And then there was two.

Gotta say, didn't see them 2 semis coming. Murphy fairly clinical but given so many chances. Was over before Baz turned up.
Judd , a little like his supporters on here, was just a little too cocky and over confident and by the time he realised Bingers was able to pot too,  it was too late.

In saying that, there's nothing wrong with a bit of cockyness and over confidence so there'll be no laying off here.
The name of the game at Sheffield is consistency, Bingham will get as many chances of Murphy as he did of Trump, but I've got a feeling his race is run.
Report winsamsoon May 4, 2015 1:24 PM BST
I ain't as cocky today, first frame vital, and I'm having a few bob on Bingham to cover myself.
He's been really impressive, exp under pressue or after a bad miss, just keeps potting like it never happened.
Shaun has been good, I know his long potting has got him this far, but I think he needs to play his opponent a little more today and choose his long pots a little better. They're great when they come off, but if you're going to be losing the frame if you miss the  % has to rise.
Report winsamsoon May 4, 2015 11:17 PM BST
CONGRATULATION STUART BINGHAM
Can't be any complaints from anyone, toughest draw, beat the best, great final. Well Done.
Report Angel Gabrial May 4, 2015 11:21 PM BST
yes but you did tip a 11/1 shot which went deep odds on, so it was a success in that respect.
Report jed.davison May 5, 2015 10:58 PM BST
Well said winsamsoon, fantastic achievement from a really tough draw. I expect to have to point out just how well he played to people in the future who see his name on the list of winners and ask how did that happen?
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