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Jason Bourne
01 Dec 09 13:52
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Date Joined: 12 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 21,982 | Blogger: Jason Bourne's blog
Bookies still don't want to show Robbo much respect it seems. Sure he's got a tough R2 match if he makes it but beyond that, I can see him beating anyone. I had fears about his longer-frame format form in the past but his performance in Sheffield showed he can handle the long matches and compete. 16's for me, will check out a couple of the other prices later in the week.
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Report ihatehwb December 1, 2009 4:05 PM GMT
If every player were to play at their best there are still 7 players better than him imo. He's the right price for me.
Report frippar December 1, 2009 4:08 PM GMT
Murphy looks good bet on the back of a Prem. league title, can he come through the draw?
Report Jason Bourne December 1, 2009 5:01 PM GMT
Murphy's got quite a nice draw, seems most of the danger is in the bottom half. Is McLeod worth a few pennies @ 150/1 in the form he's in, more than winnable R1 match ...?
Report mophead December 1, 2009 5:56 PM GMT
mcleod lol will get knocked out 1strd as usual probably -if not sec rd
Report Jason Bourne December 1, 2009 6:37 PM GMT
Now that you've said that mop, i've definitely made my mind up :^0
Report Dr Uce December 1, 2009 7:30 PM GMT
Murphy for me. I think he is still improving and his cue action is bomb proof.
Report Eldrick December 1, 2009 8:14 PM GMT
i must admit i have priced this event up assuming there would be no bombs all week
Report pandora1963 December 1, 2009 9:03 PM GMT
cope could go very well if he can squeeze past the 1st round
Report Dr Uce December 1, 2009 9:23 PM GMT
Eldrik lack of confidence is a massive explosive device lurking between the ears. Ronnie has the pin out !
Report one step December 2, 2009 8:42 AM GMT
i think mark selby is the most over priced player in the field. ok hes had a poor start to the season but he was only one or two bad shots away from the world final which he would have been a hot fav to win.if all the players played their best game selby would be joint 2nd best equal with higgins and behind ronnie. o sullivans long game isnt great at the mo was missing alot of long balls in the prem the other day and lets face it the pockets are massive there so id have to be against him at the price at the mo. robbo was great in the grand prix but not so good in the prem league and somehow i just dont fancy him to show his grand prix from in back to back comps.murphy must have a good chance but his odds of a best 15/2 are way too skinny as i feel hes just not as good as a higg selby ronnie at their best, yes hes consistant and could go in if them 3 under perform but odds too short.best outsider for me has to be mark williams at 40/1 hindered by his cast at the start of the season but still beat swail with it on he is class on his day and ive just got a feeling hes gonna come good at some point
Report Jason Bourne December 2, 2009 8:45 AM GMT
Williams crushed in the semis last time out, didn't really play well throughout but it's decent price @ 40s.
Report punter66 December 2, 2009 7:51 PM GMT
done selby,williams done williams before the qualifying rounds
Report snooker backer December 3, 2009 6:03 AM GMT
I back Selby for everything and to see him at 14's is really tempting, but with his first round draw I'm going to resist. He's a player under pressure and to expect him to bounce back and win this is unrealistic to me. Mark Allen might be worth a punt at 20's. I have to say I'm surprised to see Ronnie as long as 4/1 over the longer matches, might be the bet of the year. Of the outsiders, Wenbo at 40's perhaps, he looks in good nick at the moment. Not committed to anything yet but going to have a good look today. Might have a Pukka Pie whilst doing so to celebrate the sacking of Sir R0dney W.
Report Jason Bourne December 3, 2009 8:27 AM GMT
I'm more tempted to pick Day over Wenbo, I just think he has to win something soon. He's decent over longer-frame matches, two quarters in Sheffield last two years, beaten some good players too. Can be devastatingly good on his day but still missing something.
Report snooker backer December 3, 2009 9:25 AM GMT
I just think that Wenbo's match freshness might be the difference between the two, he seemed in fairly good nick last week and Ryan has been off the table a long time. I'm just looking for likely 'upsets' in terms of seeds getting knocked out and that seems to be one of the more likely ones to me. Of the others, I like Dott to beat MJW, and have just taken the 100/1 on wee Grahame to rediscover some form over the longer matches, he's showed snippits and again is fresh from the qualifiers, MJW looked ok in the Grand Prix but must have been surprised to find himself in the semis considering he didn't play all that well. I think Hamilton will beat King, he's been playing well lately and won't get bogged down by the bald eagle, I think Cope will be confident going in against the Jester but too close to call that one. Walden has a 2-0 h2h against Higgins but not many get to 3-0 so the law of averages to me says Higgins is probably the bet. The best acca of the round to me would be Murphy, Robbo, Ding, Fu and Hendry. I'd be tempted to throw both Ronnie and Trump in there too for an ambitious sevenfold.
Report Jason Bourne December 3, 2009 9:28 AM GMT
Who do you think's a better outright bet, Ebdon or Trump ?
Report snooker backer December 3, 2009 9:30 AM GMT
I wouldn't back either to win it but I think Trump will probably win their match, he needs it more and Ebdon isn't the force that he once was, despite his shock triumph in China last season the rest of the time he's been dire.
Report Jason Bourne December 3, 2009 9:35 AM GMT
Trump really has been a bit sketchy in longer matches, obviously his non-ranker form has been very good but I find it hard to back him against a robot like Ebdon over the distance. Really feel Trump has to get off to a good start there to have a chance.
Report snooker backer December 3, 2009 9:48 AM GMT
We seem to disagree on a few things Jason! May the wisest head win, so that probably counts me out of the running. I've gone with the mad sevenfold mentioned above pays around 7/1 at spoils. Will be having a decent 5 timer leaving off Trump and Ronnie. Some of the others too close to call, but might chance Dott, Hamilton, Cope and Wenbo in doubles and trebles all at odds against. Had a cheeky few quid on both Dott (100/1) and Wenbo (40/1) in the outrights too, but seriously considering a large bet on Ronnie, I never back him, but to me the 4/1 just looks too big. He'll be up for this I reckon and seems in decent spirits following Barry Hearn's imminent arrival at world snooker. OK, his long potting isn't what it was but he's still more than capable of thrashing anyone.
Report Jason Bourne December 3, 2009 10:03 AM GMT
Yeh he'll be reeling a bit after Sunday night. 5.2 now on betfair, good record in this event over the years. We know when he turns it on, he can be unstoppable. But he's in the tough half of the draw. I think he's one of those players though who relishes the challenge of coming up against the top players though. It could look very big in a week's time.
Report snooker backer December 3, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
I know, the price was a surprise to me, I'd have had him around 11/4, if he was that I wouldn't consider backing him but at the odds I'm really thinking of lumping on and getting Christmas paid for!
Report Jason Bourne December 4, 2009 12:03 PM GMT
Selby and Dott for me.
Report airbag December 4, 2009 1:46 PM GMT
from betfinder.co.uk

The second biggest event on the snooker calendar gets underway on Saturday 5th December with a field of 32 battling it out in Telford.

'Rocket' Ronnie O'Sullivan is as usual the favourite but due to his recent patchy form in the Premier League he is available as big as 4/1.

The only thing consistent about Ronnie is that he is inconsistent, and if he is firing nobody can touch him. However, with Ronnie that is always a big if. Last week, he lost the final of the Premier League to Shaun Murphy and looked below par and disinterested.

You would think even he would be motivated enough for the UK Championship and while I would want Ronnie on my side, I will be looking elsehwere for a few lively outsiders at bigger prices.

If Ronnie gets past Matthew Stevens in Round 1, he could meet Judd Trump next who doesn't fear the Rocket and has a 2-2 record with him. Beyond that, he would be likely to meet Mark Selby or Jamie Cope in the quarters.

Neil Robertson has been looking in fairly good form recently winning the Grand Prix in October and a semi-finalist in the Worlds.

Although he is the same half of the draw as John Higgins and O'Sullivan he could be a bit of value at 16/1 as his records against both these players isn't bad. (Ahead 4-3 over Higgins and 2-2 with Ronnie)

He also knows how to win ranking events having won the Grand Prix in 2006, the Welsh Open in 2007, the Bahrain Championship in 2008 and the Grand Prix again last October.

He went through a patchy period which I believe was due to personal reasons but he now appears to be back on track again, motivated and enjoying the game.

I'll be supporting the Australian number one nicknamed 'The Thunder From Down Under' and taking some of 16/1 on offer with SkyBet.

In the top half of the draw, Shaun Murphy and Stephen Maguire are the main dangers. Murphy comes into this event having just won the Premier League so morale should be high and I can see him doing well from a good draw. However, his price is only around 8/1 which does not tempt me.

Another player I like is Mark Allen. He is an upcoming player and could meet Murphy in the quarter-finals. At 20/1 he makes much more appeal.

The dark horse for me could be Jamie Cope. Granted he has a tough first round draw against Mark Selby but at 40/1 he might be worth a nibble.

RECOMMENDATIONS
10pts - NEIL ROBERTSON @ 16/1 (SkyBet)
5pts - MARK ALLEN @ 20/1 (Generally)
1pt - JAMIE COPE @ 40/1 (SkyBet)

4pts (Saver bet) - RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 4/1 (Generally)
Report IANMONGAN December 4, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
matthew stevens
Report IANMONGAN December 4, 2009 2:25 PM GMT
plus Ding n Higgins
Report TheMadness December 4, 2009 7:10 PM GMT
Must be about time one of these young players like Trump comes thorugh
Report snooker backer December 4, 2009 7:24 PM GMT
He hasn't a chance of winning this, madness, he's not there yet, very erratic and poor shot choices. When they say it's a young man's game, I'm not sure it's quite true in snooker. The main contenders are still the established players, Higgins, Ronnie, Murphy, Ding etc.
Report horribleives December 4, 2009 7:58 PM GMT
yep
Report MrFocker December 4, 2009 9:15 PM GMT
it's usually worth keeping an eye on cuetips.co.uk as they tend to put decent bets up, has to be murphy for me this year though, he has the favourable draw for sure... he's got maguire in that half, but after what happened with him this week it's hard to know how he'll perform.
Report Jason Bourne December 4, 2009 11:21 PM GMT
Yeh i've got Holt to beat him in R1.
Report CAMPIONE December 5, 2009 12:17 AM GMT
I've gone for

Williams Outright 38's
Stevens Outright 75's

Williams to win his quarter 5.5
Stevens to win his quarter 16

Stevens to beat Ronnie 3.7
Stevens + 2.5 v Ronnie 11/10
Report one step December 5, 2009 7:29 AM GMT
i think stevens will run ronnie close. usually see ronnie running past my house at some stage during the week with telford athletic club.ill have to check the local paper to make sure there arent any half marathons this week lol.....
Report IANMONGAN December 5, 2009 8:53 AM GMT
got to love ronnie's dedication..... to running. didn't let a pesky snooker match worth a few quid get in his way, refreshing to see
Report Jason Bourne December 11, 2009 8:55 PM GMT
That 4/1 on Ronnie starting to look massive ;)
Report IANMONGAN December 15, 2009 12:32 PM GMT
waited 2 days for some praise for my selections (- stevens)
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg December 15, 2009 3:09 PM GMT
praise??? betfair forums are for gloating, insulting and arguing.

p.s. Stevens??! :^0
Report IANMONGAN December 16, 2009 12:11 PM GMT
heart over head on that 1
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