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the man
11 Jul 16 13:39
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Date Joined: 10 Sep 00
| Topic/replies: 468 | Blogger: the man's blog
I've been asked to provide a price for Widnes to finish in the top 4 next season. I've got my own ideas but just wondered if anyone could have a go too so that I can confirm I'm in the right ballpark.
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Report the man July 11, 2016 1:40 PM BST
The price is for the whole regular season including the games after the split
Report RLKingPunter July 11, 2016 6:31 PM BST
id wait to see if Kevin Brown goes to saints first , steve
Report gaz255 July 11, 2016 7:26 PM BST
The Brown to Saints is irrelevant-may even be a plus.
Brown is good v weaker teams but goes missing in tough games like last Fri. Widnes forwards were bashing Saints forwards good style but with ball and space did Brown produce the goods-if he was any good Widnes would have won that game easy.He is slow on his feet does not go forward and throws passes which are readable-also a weak kicking game- defence is good though.(I know he was in the 30 but given the game he had with Bennett watching will be out of the frame now)He misses too many games through injury.
Brown to Saints deal will involve player exchange and you may well be surprised at who goes the other way.
Widnes have options in the halfs as it is(Gilmore has real potential) and there will be a plan for next season.
This season Widnes have squandered games they should have won.Will probably be in the 5-8 next year but if things went their way could make top 4 after 23.Odds around 18-1.After 30 games 20-1.
I would snatch any odds of around 25/30-1.
Betts is a good coach and the Widnes backs are OK-forwards getting better Gerard has been a big miss but Dudson has done well.Houston is a tough guy-need one or two more (Burke looks a replacement for O`Carroll)
Conclusion -5/6 if injury freeish but get an injury glut and could drop to 9/10.
Report the man July 11, 2016 9:06 PM BST
I've got to provide the price this week so I appreciate there's guesswork with new signings and players leaving. Gaz are you saying odds of 20/1 to finish in the top 4? If so you are miles away from what I'm thinking. I'm a lot lower. To be honest Super League is getting poorer and poorer for me. They've managed to level things up with the salary cap but the good teams have got worse rather than the standard improving. In the last few years we've had Castleford and Huddersfield in the top 4 and I'm thinking with a bit of luck in the close games Widnes have a not impossible chance of doing something similar.
Report the man July 11, 2016 9:07 PM BST
Widnes are thinking of doing a season ticket offer that will cost them a lot of money if they reach the top 4 so they are looking basically at an insurance policy
Report gaz255 July 11, 2016 9:21 PM BST
I said 18-1 in top 4 after 23 games. No one is going to take less than say 14-1-I would take above 20-1 only.
Super league is not getting poorer at all-it`s getting more even.What used to happen is the `top 4 Sts/wig/leeds/brad could go and buy  a couple of top  Aussies and they were top test players.Aussie TV deal has put a stop to this so those say 12 players are missing -it means that the 4 clubs who could buy into the top 4 can no longer do this.The British/French  youngsters are now better so all in all it
Report the man July 11, 2016 9:28 PM BST
All about opinions but I think the top Aussies missing has affected the standard, not to mention the lack of top class union converts of yesteryear. I'd be a backer at 14-1 by the way.
Report gaz255 July 11, 2016 9:29 PM BST
cont-is more even.So yes top teams have dropped but the other 8 have improved. Cas and Hudd have more or less same squads but where are they now-and do Leeds losing Sinfield Peacock become so bad.Anyone can drop to bottom 4 and mid 8s.
As for Widnes-they won 6 from 7 but were injury free and played teams who are now in the main at the bottom end of the table,then a really bad run.Back to the one out footy of 4 years ago.Ar ethey better atm-well yes but top 4?? no.
Widnes can afford a silly top 4 offer as they know they won
Report gaz255 July 11, 2016 9:32 PM BST
cont wont get there.I watch Widnes and often they are on the edge.Even the Hull game at home if Hull had taken the 2/3 chances in the first 20 mins they would have lost;
Report gaz255 July 11, 2016 9:41 PM BST
If you take 14-1 you will be taking too low odds.Not for me.
Top 4 next year
Wigan
Wire
Cats
Hull

then Leeds-yes they are on the way back
Salford(especially if Dr K goes replaced by Orange?)
Saints

all better chance than Widnes
Report gaz255 July 11, 2016 9:50 PM BST
Conclusions- the man -you asked someone to have a go-done that
I watch widnes but also go to games as a neutral as wire .sts leigh are so close and swinton sometimes-rugby l is cheap and parking is simple so better than sitting in the house.
you may get interest at 14.1 but I would only touch 20+
Report the man July 11, 2016 11:09 PM BST
thanks for your input. I agree with you in the fact that there a lot more candidates for the top 4 and I also agree it's unlikely, just disagree with your assessment of the odds. If all the teams were equal then you would be looking at 2/1 the field for true odds. I agree that Widnes are less likely than some of the leading contenders and I'd have them with a less than average chance but I'm struggling to think they are a double figure chance. Or perhaps that's just the cautious layer in me.

Anyone else with an opinion? RLKP?
Report TheVis July 12, 2016 4:11 PM BST
It's a tough one to have a strong view on but I tend to agree 14/1 for top 4 in a league where there increasingly seems not a lot between the teams would be very tempting as a backer.

I'd say half that price, around 7/1 or 8/1 as my finger in the air guess of something that feels about right.
Report the man July 12, 2016 10:20 PM BST
I went with 7/1 as the true price. I'd be layer at 5/1 and backer at 11/1. Thanks for the input.
Report guernseyw July 13, 2016 10:54 AM BST
The man -- sm question -

Did ya run a book up Park Rd (dog track)many moons ago
Report the man July 13, 2016 2:13 PM BST
No I didn't, but I know a man who did
Report guernseyw July 13, 2016 9:09 PM BST
Cheers , thought you were SJ
Report Anybody help July 13, 2016 9:11 PM BST
I don't think 14/1 reflects the chance of the Vikings making the top 4 at all. The demise of Leeds this year shows that the most improbable of things can happen in super league and whilst Widnes wouldn't be one of the first 8 teams I would name to make the top 4 that doesn't mean I wouldn't lump on at 14s.

They are likely to finish the season with 20 points and that will probably leave them 4 wins short of the top 4. I'm sure you could easily find 4 Widnes games that could have gone in their favour this year. In order to do this properly you would need to calculate the market to 400% with all runners but given that Wigan, wire, Saints, hull and Catalans are likely to take out around 225% you have the other 7 taking out around 175%. If you thought all had an equal chance that would make Widnes 3/1 pokes. I'd say Leeds, Cas and hudds (bright new coach) are more likely but then probably Widnes. I'd agree they are around 7/1 pokes
Report the man July 13, 2016 11:05 PM BST
Guernseyw, I know SJ well
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