Runcorn and Helsby By Election

Should be.

Talk of parties standing aside.


Spaffer Johnson wants a seat to enable him
to leave his plough.

33 lab
30 refuk
20 tory
8 green
5 lib dems
4 otters


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2025/03/a-reform-labour-showdown-looms-in-the-runcorn-by-election

..

will need to be ultra-safe for boris to stand he won't want to do a scrap of work

Johnson in Runcorn


Ha ha ha ha ha

Has anyone actually seen Farage btw?



This must be a key target for them and you'd have thought he'd be ramping it up, but he's nowhere to be seen. I know he doesn't like to answer any awkward questions like, but bloody hell lad there's a by-election to be won.

I would think Farage would like to be keeping a low profile. Wouldn't like to field a question about Trump, would he? Difficult for him to answer?

Would most British people like to hear a critical comment from him about Trump? However, would he not want to say that as it would likely be to harm his relationship with an easy to upset Trump? Would Musk be likely to make another unfavorable comment about Farage on "X"?

Well he does fancy himself as PM one day. I'm sure we'd all like to know who he'd navigate his way round Trump, Putin and Ukraine. Cos, y'know, we've plenty of disturbing evidence of how much he loves to please Don and Vlad.

Dont think our Nige will ever be PM too much hard work  , Mind you with the amount of free stuff involved , you never know

Farage, what do you make of him? I'll just say something here. One thing Farage claimed was to be a great friend of the British fishing industry.

I seem to remember him on a fishing boat sailing on the Thames when Brexit campaigning saying how great it would be for our fishermen. However, when he was a EU MP he was on the EU fishing commission and only once attended one of many possible meetings. Surely if he was so keen to help out our fishermen he should have been shouting their case both at those meetings and also inside and outside the European parliament.

As his main aim was to get us out of the EU so perhaps him and his party intentionally did little constructively in the EU parliament?  His party may have wanted us out of the EU but despite this while there they should they not have tried more to get things improved  for this country?

I see him and something deep down in me says - NO!

poor voting record since he became an MP - 40 odd when most new MPs over a hundred

Farage has to avoid any journos until the Ukraine talks succeed or fail.
He doesn't want anyone asking him "Did Russia start the war?" because his US owners have a different narrative/answer to the UK populations view on who started the war.

Farage's only policy is immigration. Every thing else is up for sale to the highest bidder.

Farage's adverts to publicise the use of small boats certainly
saw a vast increase... His Russian handlers would have been delighted.

It doesn't matter what the UK PM thinks about the Ukraine Russia conflict, yet people seem to obsess about what someone who can't get anywhere near policy for at least 4 years thinks about it.

The recent media noise about the war has had the desired impact of deflecting the legacy media away from the things that the UK PM can influence, as they aren't going too well.

How about long hoyle spunking tax payer cash on dozens of luxury holidays for himself and his missus?

Two tier justice being formalised into policy?

It doesn't matter what the UK PM thinks about the Ukraine Russia conflict, yet people seem to obsess about what someone who can't get anywhere near policy for at least 4 years thinks about it.

Given that farage is not PM, if he want's the spot of leader of the opposition, he's got to have opinions on everything.

If he can't have an opinion on everything in the political zeitgeist,  then he's not an alternative to the current government or current opposition, he's just another scammer preventing the dreams and aspirations of the UK people becoming reality.

Does the UK need yet another half baked one dimensional Jeremy Corbyn?

Farage is Jeremy Corbyn, doesn't have an opinion, doesn't have enough policies for the actuality of government.

Nonsense. I believe Reform advocated for increased spending on defence, long before Trump was re-elected. That is something that comes into the orbit of the UK PM. It might come as a major surprise to you, but Putin is not influenced or interested in what Starmer says or thinks. Aside from perhaps providing some amusement.

Nonsense. I believe Reform advocated for increased spending on defence, long before Trump was re-elected. That is something that comes into the orbit of the UK PM. It might come as a major surprise to you, but Putin is not influenced or interested in what Starmer says or thinks. Aside from perhaps providing some amusement.

Of course Putin is interested in what Starmer does/says, Only yesterday Putin/Russian Media said UK was the biggest warmonger/threat to Russia.


This is a betting site/forum, you're not the smartest person in the room, but you make yourself look even dumber than you are, posting your opinions above as though they were facts.

30 day Ceasefire will russians accept it ?

Just saw results of a recent poll of Reform voters. Around a third thought the party would be better off with a different leader. A similar third thought it was best with Farage. A similar third thought a change would make little or no difference, or they were don't knows.

Perhaps things there are not at all settled at present. Habib was eased out after seemingly having disagreements with Farage. Now there is the Rupert Lowe situation with the whip being withdrawn from him. Many people are being drawn to Reform and there will probably be many conflicting views about what overall policies they should try to pursue.

I don't know if it was true but I heard it said that policies they were trying to promote at the last election would overall have been more expensive that what labour was supposedly intending doing. Perhaps somebody could clarify if there was any truth in that.

Habib didn't get elected, simple as that. Can hardly retain a management position of the party when there are elected MPs (for now!). Then he threw the toys out of the pram.

Lowe is very pointed with his language, and was tacitly supporting TR, calling for mass deportations etc. I wrote about before, doesn't matter if you think TR is right or wrong, he's toxic as far as regular people go. Lowe does loads of podcast stuff and he repeats this stuff. Farage has made the judgement that the party needs to be distanced from TR and his followers if they want to win a GE. It's the right judgement in my view.

Reform only have a small number of MPs and they have to be on the same message obviously. Lowe doesn't want to be on a leash. The way they've gone about kicking him out is wrong in my opinion, but he can hardly be allowed to be so openly critical of the party leader with no sanction. Politics 101 that all the other parties would love to see Reform killed off, and divide and conquer is a very simple tactic, with loads of mates in the legacy media to assist.

Reform have picked their candidate. She has previously been expelled by two other parties.

Based purely on listening to the vox pop I'd say the majority of people are fed up with useless and deceitful politicians.

So it'll be super hilarious if Reform win.

Highly likely they will as the previous MP was a convicted criminal who went to prison.

Not sure she is the Perfect Candidate TBH Ex Tory pro Covid Restrictions and Jabs

Another long term calculation to bring in a woman MP. After the emergency budget and hyping up benefit cuts, I doubt it matters too much who the Reform candidate is.

Candidates have to be declared on April 2nd. At the moment it appears that the right to extreme right vote will cut up amongst the tories, Reform and an English Democrat. There is a good Green candidate standing who will certainly have some support. The Workers Party have a former UK foreign ambassador standing, who comes from Runcorn, who could conceivably cut into the Labour vote. The LibDems don't count but could gain some protest votes from both Labour and the tories. To confuse that issue, a Liberal Party candidate is also standing. Add in the independents and usual loony and that appears to be it. In my opinion, the tories won't win but depending on how much effort they make, they and their voters will decide who wins. Bad Enoch could be close to the jobcentre if the tory vote disintegrates and Reform win, so that may force them to appear to be competitive. I think Labour might hold on, simply because of the number of ways their opponents vote may cut up.

be sure to let us know you back up your analysis with money. before the vote.

Refuk's by-election candidate Sarah Pochin is strongly opposed to the death penalty and in favour of the rehabilitation of prisoners

A recent poll showed 79% of Refuk voters would support the reintroduction of the death penalty

Refuk gone woke

Meeja straw clutching I'm assuming. A big majority of the population support the death penalty coming back for terrorists. Not clear to me what the death penalty has to do with woke.

Mar 31, 2025 -- 7:15PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

Refuk's by-election candidate Sarah Pochin is strongly opposed to the death penalty and in favour of the rehabilitation of prisonersA recent poll showed 79% of Refuk voters would support the reintroduction of the death penaltyRefuk gone woke

Now that is interesting. A chance for the tories to focus on an issue.

it's more about education than being a woke issue. the further you've gone in education the less likely you are to support the death penalty

Reform could win this seat but I would not like to back them at the current 1.67. If it got to 1.80 plus, I might be tempted.

Reform have a huge majority to overturn, and the squabble and fallout with Rupert Lowe could cost Reform votes.

Add to that, Labour will go all out to hold on here because to lose will bring lots of tricky questions, while other tactical voters, Greens, LibDems etc could switch to Labour to keep RUK out.

Twill be interesting, that's for sure.

My daughter-in-law lives in Runcorn, she's a liberal and will vote for them till the sun goes out, but I will ask her what the talk on the ground is.

At the mo, I think Labour will keep the seat. Might be worth a wee dabble at 2.48.

I used to go out with a girl from Runcorn. I've been out in some rough areas in my time (Kirkby and St Helens spring to mind, Bucharest was...interesting) but Runcorn was the roughest by miles. And that was 20 years ago, so god knows what it's like with the availability of drugs nowadays. I think Runcorn is the archetype for the left-behind town. Any kid with a half decent education will be out before the door can hit his arse. I haven't got the figures but I'd imagine the number of young people on benefits is way higher in Halton than the national average.

I don't get Bill's argument about tactical voting to keep Reform out. If anything, it'll be the other way round. If you're "of the left" but want Labour to do more, then surely your tactical vote is a kick up the arse and a reminder that they can be booted out if they don't deliver. This feels very much like prime protest vote territory.

Which is to say, if Reform don't win this one they may as well pack up and retrain in something else.

I honestly don't have a scooby as to who is going to win this seat. There are a lot of unhappy people about. They do not seem to have much of a choice as to who to vote for. I would not vote Labour but none of the others have any solutions. I might vote for the Workers party as my protest or just spoil my papers. I think people spoiling papers would be the best outcome as it would show the politicians that we have no faith and old allegiances are broken.

It's a referendum on Labour so far, as is the case for most by elections. Simple as that. Nothing to do with 'solutions'. Labour have proven themselves to be grossly incompetent congenital liars on the take. And their own Labour MP here went to jail for beating a constituent up in the street, then blamed his victim for doing it!

I imagine Reform are far more palatable than the Tories or liberals in that area. Having said that, not a betting proposition for me at the prices. I'll be surprised if they don't take the seat though.

don't think so cider,

I think it is a referendum on the lack of leadership this country is sadly suffering

The Conservatives and the LibDems haven't a cat in hell's chance.

Starmer won't be able to get his vote out.

Reform are FREE MONEY imvho

Lack of turnout will be interesting
I would prefer it if people spoiled their votes

If Farage can tear himself away from Clacton and visit Runcorn he will be mobbed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

Plenty regular by election punters will remember Peterboro. Similar background, Tory and Labour vote collapsed but Labour hung on. The Brexit Party were 1.08 to win, Labour were 10.0 when the polls closed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Newport_West_by-election

Worse still, when in their UKIP guise, they came third when bizarrely favourites at one stage.

There's been a left wing drift away from labour since then, of course.

Makes it fascinating

'drift away'

I'm glad you came back PP, so entertaining

As I mentioned earlier, Bad Enoch could be history after this. The tories, if they wish to keep her in post(?), have got to dig in here and at least stop Reform from winning. They can then say that only the tories can beat Labour and Reform is a wasted vote.

Well maybe a lot of tories would rather refuk won rather than labour

But, many don't want to fall behind refuk, and labour turned into tories anyway
in many folks eyes.

Truly fascinating this by election and councils to follow.

No doubt there are going to be some upsets.

Any new leadership contest will rip the Tories in two with the Right of the party battering the One Nation 'fraction'

Trump has exposed the wets.

Apr 1, 2025 -- 6:37PM, SirNorbertClarke wrote:

If Farage can tear himself away from Clacton and visit Runcorn he will be mobbed.

Not sure he spends much time here.

Farage lends himself to sarcasm

1000.0 matched on the tories. In a by election against a very unpopular Government allegedly?

The runners...

Catherine BLAIKLOCK (English Democrats — Deport all illegal immigrants)
Dan CLARKE (The Liberal Party)
Chris COPEMAN (The Green Party)
Paul DUFFY (Liberal Democrats)
Peter FORD (Workers Party of Britain)
Howling Laud HOPE (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Sean HOULSTON (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Jason HUGHES (Volt UK - The UK in Europe)
Alan MCKIE (Independent)
Graham MOORE (English Constitution Party, Freedom)
Paul MURPHY (Social Democratic Party)
Sarah POCHIN (Reform UK)
Karen SHORE (Labour Party)
John STEVENS (Rejoin EU)
Michael WILLIAMS (Independent)

I can see the first name on the list of contenders getting a surprising number of votes.

Wow!

A Candidate has emerged who we can all support!


Howling Lord Hope ( Official Monster Raving Loony Party )

Some crazy price swings on the exchange today. Not sure if anything to do with the Jimmy Saville loving Reform guy.

I suspect there is a poll appearing shortly favourable to Reform.

They had a good result mid week in a similar type of area.

But poll would not surprise me.

Just looked at the prices and was surprised at the difference between the top 2. Going to have a little bet on Labour at those prices.

Labour certainly look a far bigger price than they should be.

It suggests to me that a poll has been carried out, favourable to Reform and the money is being placed before the details leak out.

I Used to take my Mother to Frodsham most Thursday for the street market, no way would I have the locals down as likely reform voters but as someone else said you have to take into account the Tory tactical voters.

The tory vote is something I have been mulling over. In every constituency in the UK there is a rock solid Tory vote who will never vote for anyone else under any circumstances. I reckon, here, it's about 10%. Let's say the Green candidate (well known local) gets 7%. The LibDems probably aren't making a huge effort but could pick up Labour and disillusioned tory votes as a protest. Call it 7% for them too. Say 6% for the rest including loonies, independents, extremists etc. That leaves 70% to fight over for Labour and Reform. You would expect Labour to hold on to at least 30% share of the vote, so Reform would have to take somewhere between 30-40% vote share. That's still a big task against Labour and the Tories who have databases of every possible voter from years gone by.

& what factor are you attributing to the Labour MP assaulting a constituent in public, then lying to police about it, then benefitting from two keir justice. ie, the reason for the election.

Not attributing much at all, some folk even thought he should carry on, the fact the labour candidate is a local will help the cause imo.

Really. Anyone that thinks it's ok for a MP to beat up a constituent fits into 'Say 6% for the rest including loonies, independents, extremists etc', in my opinion at least. I guess some Labour supporters are on that bubble. I doubt they are material enough to impact the outcome, most people would think he should be in jail.

On another site, where there is a prediction voting option, it's considered 50/50 with Labour having the tiniest edge. If it's 50/50, at the current prices, you have to back Labour.

post yak bets

In a General Election, Electoral Calculus have the chances of winning the seat at...

Labour 68%
Reform 28%
Tories 3%

Of course, in a by election, protest votes rule.

Yeah, this is a country mile from a GE though. This is 4 years away. It's a simple protest vote against "all this". Reform are an absolute shoe-in.

700 my grunts turning up in rubber dinjies on Tuesday, a record apparently, might add grist to the Reform mill?

FIGURES ARE BECOMMING SHOCKING it needs to stop

This government just what the country needs!

Don't worry, Starmer will rally the troops

Very quiet on this by election. Consensus from other forums suggests turnout could be abysmal.

People have given up and in the vacuum characters like Chump, Farage and Orban emerge. Prepare to fight!

What Reform need is a blockbuster headline or two. Preferably small boat related. Preferably starting on Tuesday 30th April

How about Farage reveals himself not to be Russian backed, that would be a shocker.