US Election 2024 - Betting Talk

omg:

Someone manipulating the market I reckon. Woudn't take much with such low liquidity. We'll see...

It's all over place. The most high profile tweet I've seen so far is the Trump campaign manager, Chris Lacivita, saying his sources say its not Shapiro. But why would he know before the dem people.

Aug 5, 2024 -- 11:47PM, blank wrote:

It's all over place. The most high profile tweet I've seen so far is the Trump campaign manager, Chris Lacivita, saying his sources say its not Shapiro. But why would he know before the dem people.

Weird people with weird friends in weird places?

Whatever, it was all happening on smarkets well before BF.

Both sites about the same now, pretty much co-favs.

Aug 5, 2024 -- 11:47PM, blank wrote:

It's all over place. The most high profile tweet I've seen so far is the Trump campaign manager, Chris Lacivita, saying his sources say its not Shapiro. But why would he know before the dem people.

... and what would he have to gain by fibbing? All very odd. Both sites still bouncing around. Any chance you could post a link to his tweet please?

.https://x.com/LaCivitaC/status/1820573162041409736

Thanks. Hmmm. Well if that's true, it has to be Walz, IF what Reuters was saying earlier about now being down to just those two was right of course.

So hope it is as I talked myself into a punt on that market the other day. Got £50 on at 18.

Aug 5, 2024 -- 11:47PM, blank wrote:

It's all over place. The most high profile tweet I've seen so far is the Trump campaign manager, Chris Lacivita, saying his sources say its not Shapiro. But why would he know before the dem people.

Same guy also did a big breaking about Harris, according to reliable sources, picking Shapira about two weeks ago already. Covering all the bases.

https://x.com/LaCivitaC/status/1816162052647292937

"Same guy also did a big breaking about Harris, according to reliable sources, picking Shapira about two weeks ago already. Covering all the bases.
https://x.com/LaCivitaC/status/1816162052647292937"

Lol, not surprised. Can't trust a word they say.

Thanks Edy.

Found a tweet about black SUV's at Walz's residence too, seems to have been debunked.

.https://x.com/tylerpager/status/1820598508400836974

USA - Presidential Election 2024 - Election Winner Liability: £0.00
Cash Out £586.60
Profit:  £586.80    

Donald 'rump
£0.21   

Kamala Harris
£1,325.32   

The remaining 131 selections
£08.16

I'm all in on Harris.

nice1 askjack, I think you have the value on your side

Aug 6, 2024 -- 12:21AM, askjack wrote:

USA - Presidential Election 2024 - Election Winner Liability: £0.00Cash Out £586.60Profit:

Glitch here, didn't take my full post. Said "Well done. Enjoy the free ride..."

Aug 6, 2024 -- 12:19AM, blank wrote:

Thanks Edy.Found a tweet about black SUV's at Walz's residence too, seems to have been debunked..https://x.com/tylerpager/status/1820598508400836974

Thanks. I can't see any replies though. My Twitter account got screwed up after Musk took over. Gave up trying to get it working again. How was it eventually debunked?

That Tyler Page is a whitehouse reporter for the WaPo, he says Walz's people confirm it's his MN detail, some of the comments also note the cars have MN plates.

Aug 6, 2024 -- 12:41AM, blank wrote:

That Tyler Page is a whitehouse reporter for the WaPo, he says Walz's people confirm it's his MN detail, some of the comments also note the cars have MN plates.

Bloody eck, they look after their governors over there eh?

Aug 6, 2024 -- 12:32AM, TheManFromUtopia wrote:

Glitch here, didn't take my full post. Said "Well done. Enjoy the free ride..."

It actually said "Well done that man! Enjoy the free ride..."

If they spot a Ferrari it'll just be his cleaner turning up to work.

The 'rump

Matched
Low: 1.41 High: 21

On this selection: £24,316,224.77

Last price matched: 1.9

Harris

Matched
Low: 2.22 High: 150

On this market: £44,166,067.00

On this selection: £6,333,035.03

Last price matched: 2.26

As the money moves from the 'rump over to Harris there will be "scalping" opportunities!

Will be interesting to see how the VP result affects the election winner market, if at all.

If it was a real neighbour they would know if those cars were the usual sort or not, but a tweet he made shortly before said he was driving over to Walz's house (25min) to camp outside for news, so he wont know about those cars.
Tbf When someone tweeted Vance's security detail the Ohio governor dismissed it saying they were Ohio police.

Aug 5, 2024 -- 9:09PM, tobermory wrote:

Polls being accurate a very big if based on '16 & '20

They were accurate.

Does nobody ever point out the polls underestimated the dems just 2 years ago at the mid terms?

Bit sad to see the great environmentalist lawyer stage fun photos with the bear cub he had just killed before he went on to dump it on the street to stage a fake accident.

...at like 60 years old...

Walz is the pick, CNN. Looks like the a safe doubling down on the base pick.

Yayyyy!!!

A surprise to me, thought Shapiro and Kelly were strategically better placed. Having said that, Minnesota now looks a stonewall Dem hold.

He was great in inglorious basterds, trying to grab a little of the nazi vote from trump

Bring on the Walz-Harris VP debate.

Oops, Walz-Vance

Well done TheMan. I was hoping for Shapiro because it would immediately shift the odds in PA and therefore Harris outright, but I guess he had too much baggage and would have split the party a little. Walz seems nice enough and hopefully he has broader appeal.

walz is a good choice

reelect walz 2036!

Aug 6, 2024 -- 2:12PM, blank wrote:

Well done TheMan. I was hoping for Shapiro because it would immediately shift the odds in PA and therefore Harris outright, but I guess he had too much baggage and would have split the party a little. Walz seems nice enough and hopefully he has broader appeal.

Thank you blank. I think they can still win PA without Shapiro as VP, going by the trajectory & momentum we've been seeing. Anyway, if Shapiro's really worth his salt, he should still be able to help win PA, even without the VP ticket.

I'm in very much deeper on KH but Walz has more than covered me for a free ride on her now (if you know what I mean lol).

He looks very solid.  Trustworthy grandad who won't accidentally shoot your kids on a weekend hunting trip

Really like Walz. Wonder when Buttigieg will come through for the Democrats.

Will they ever be confident enough to launch Buttegeig?   He's great in the media role they give him anyway

Last update: 1:45 p.m, Monday, August 5: Despite our projected economic index going negative today — which harms the incumbent party’s chances — Kamala Harris has gained more ground in out forecast after strong polling nationally and in Pennsylvania. Harris leads Donald Trump by 1.9 points in our national polling average, and has a 53 percent chance of winning the electoral college.

Above from Nate Silver. Harris should clearly be betting favourite.

Do you remember 2020?  Biden had won but for a few crazy lawsuits and i was still able to stick my entire bank on him at about 1.2.

These markets are so skewed towards trump, same again.

The 2020 situation was made worse by market makers indecision.

Yeah, would have been a pain if i needed my bank tbf

yak hunt: "Above from Nate Silver. Harris should clearly be betting favourite."

Yes, beats me how Trump's stayed clear fav all the way, defying all the pointers. Crazy. I recall reading on here that some punter with huge pockets blew about 3 million on Joe and then switched to backing Trump, desperate to salvage. Could it be down to them and/or a few more like it I wonder?

Very possibly, it's as good an explanation as any. The facts are that Harris is now ahead and her lead is increasing almost daily.

Mind you, with 24 mil+ traded on Trump, the odd few mil shouldn't make such a massive difference to the price overall.

Aug 6, 2024 -- 2:04AM, yak hunt wrote:

Aug  5, 2024 --  9:09PM, tobermory wrote:Polls being accurate a very big if based on '16 & '20They were accurate.

seriously

Aug 6, 2024 -- 5:03PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Yeah, would have been a pain if i needed my bank tbf

Especially as Betfair changed their rules and didn't settle it for a month.

Yes.

It's a quiet time of year for specials :)

Worth noting only one poll in august has trump ahead and that was Rasmussen.  Which doesn't count

The polling averages would have been even further out but for Rasmussen in 2020

I was looking at 538 there for that Rasmussen poll but it's not included, I guess because it's always so ludicrously biased. They have included Trafalgars to be fair.

Walz seems like a poor choice to me. Not sure it cancels out the Vance error, but Walz adds absolutely nothing.

I don't think the 'home state advantage' thing is as clear cut as people were making out, but Shapiro/Pennsylvania was a close race where it might have made the difference.

If Minnesota is going to be close they may as well concede the whole thing now. Elsewhere can't see anyone getting enthused about the guy.

Think they just went for someone safe, without many negatives. Vance has turned out to be a very poor choice.

Aug 6, 2024 -- 2:25PM, TheManFromUtopia wrote:

I'm in very much deeper on KH but Walz has more than covered me for a free ride on her now (if you know what I mean lol).

Well done!

And was Walz the 1st choice??

If it comes out that the bigger names turned Kamala down will be a momentum staller.

Turned down the opportunity to be a future President?

If you are a good enough candidate better to run yourself in '28, than be on a losing ticket this time which would end any hope.

Even if Kamala won you'd be waiting until '32, and still would have a loser tag if the Republicans won in '28.

Newsom/Shapiro/Beshear will be hoping Kamala loses, and probably expecting it too.

Yeah, cos they all want their country subjected to 4 years of trump and elections being ended :)

If Trump wins he could neither end elections or run in another one himself.

Perfect scenario for Newsom. As soon as Kamala loses people will be asking 'why didn't we have Newsom'?

He won't want to wait until he is 65.

If.

If Trump wins he could neither end elections or run in another one himself.


maybe if the don wins he will either end elections or run in another one himself

and how would that happen

He's corrupted the scotus

Ending elections, giving Trump a 3rd term run etc, not something supreme court has any say in.

Need 2/3 of HoR and 2/3 of Senate, and 2/3 of States to approve it

Never understand if smart people are joking about this stuff or that far gone with TDS

Need 2/3 of HoR and 2/3 of Senate, and 2/3 of States to approve it

or martial/state of emergency law

Actually 3/4 of states

Unless you think Trump is going to try to establish a dictatorship through the military, and that the army would be fine to carry that out...

perhaps the question might be who could stop him? he's teased that people only need to vote for him this time - being ambiguous about what he means

the restriction to 2 terms is in itself a change to the constitution. a lot would depend on whether he has control of the house and the senate

ending elections completely is not impossible - the scotus have shown increasing willingness to make decisions favourable to the don

admittedly though both are unlikely

he's teased that people only need to vote for him this time

Well yeah, because he can only have one more term.

the restriction to 2 terms is in itself a change to the constitution. a lot would depend on whether he has control of the house and the senate

Indeed, but it required overwhelming support. Republicans are not gonna win 2/3 of congress seats, or 3/4 of states.

Supreme Court cannot initiate a constitutional change out of thin air.

i suppose there are 2 questions. is it possible the don could end elections? and would he want to do that?

taking the second of these this is a man who tried everything he could to stay in the whitehouse - nothing remotely like it had happened before in the history of america. so if he could he would most certainly end elections or at least stand again

is it possible the don could end elections? totally impossible

would he want to do that? due to above, it hardly matters

it was impossible to overturn the 2020 election but he still tried

The supreme court has just said he is immune from prosecution as president. What do you think that means in the mind of a sociopath like trump?

In the mind of the stable genius that is Trump, he'd probably take the original documents of the constitution and its amendments and either add or change a few parts with a sharpie and declare it's always been like that.

...There will probably be someone from some think tank with some better ideas on how to use his immunity though.

i don't get why people always bring up "tds". this is a man who did everything he possibly could to overturn the 2020 election

I can't carry out an illegal order, mr president. But it isn't illegal as I'm immune from illegalness, general. ok mr president, those m'fers are history.

Tober, you're saying it's a zero percent possibility, given Trump's form and skill at using the legal system for his own ends, it has to be assessed as a great than zero percent proposition.

PA rally tonight should be fun (22:30 BST).
Guess Shapiro will be somewhere in the back row. Imagine he won't be feeling over the moon somehow.

These people aren't magas, everyone will understand exactly why she chose Walz

Brilliant speech performance by Shapiro there, very convincing.

Donald 1.99

Wow.I can see why she picked Walz now. That was some rally speech. He was on fire.

Trump:  2.00
Harris: 2.12

Flip flop imminent.

This time next year, children in the USA will still be asking themselves why all the adults keep laughing naughtily about remarks regarding JD Vance getting up from his sofa.

Flippety-flop here we come...

I see some optimist wants to back the road kill beareating anti vaxxer at 140.

Walz:"Make no mistake, crime went UP under Trump... and that's not just the crimes HE committed!"

PMSL, brilliant!

Those two win.  Unlucky you guys who were staging a coup, Gilead will have to wait

Walz on Vance: "...can’t wait to debate the guy... that is if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up”

OMG!

Interesting to compare election winner odds for the VP's. Vance had decent money matched sub 100, Walz never below 300. I suppose Trump is more likely to get shot again than Harris.

Aug 7, 2024 -- 1:08AM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:

Interesting to compare election winner odds for the VP's. Vance had decent money matched sub 100, Walz never below 300. I suppose Trump is more likely to get shot again than Harris.

Yes, much more likely I'd say. Bearing in mind he's only entitled to the Secret Service B team these days.

890 was matched on Walz, not by me though

USA, Marist College poll

Presidential election

Trump (GOP, Right): 45.5% (+0.8 )
Harris (Dem, Liberal): 48.5% (+3.8 )
Kennedy Jr. (Ind): 5.1% (-2.3)
…

(+/- vs. 20-22 July)

Fieldwork: 1-4 Aug 2024
Sample size: 1,513

Top rated pollster.

The only people that haven't realised trump is losing yet are the crazy cryptos dominating the betting markets

I think many of them are russian, chinese, indian. Not americans, they don't have a great handle on what has actually happened