Conservative v RefUK Vote share match bet

1.46 tories
2.90 refuk

103% book

Lay (Bet Against)
Conservative
1.10

:)

I feel RUK most likeliest in this contest now.

If those Survation figures for Clacton are anywhere near correct then the 1.40 tories is surely a gift.

They're not.

Tories into 1.28.

What makes you so sure?

there is a suvation poll out for clacton that puts farage on 42%, tories 27%, labour 24%

https://archive.ph/ZsdtL

Yeah, just reading that.


Even in a seat cherry picked by Farage, the safest of the safe he could find, his easiest route to Parliament, the tories are still maintaining 27%. And that's in an Aaron Banks commissioned poll. Other ones have it much closer.

I think there are signs there's a lot of Tory voters who - while not pleased with how their party has behaved in recent years - are genuinely worried about the future and being plunged into obscurity and want to stay loyal till the bitter end.

Talking about Survation, I'm sure that the MRP can be more or less disregarded for constituency betting. Even though their overall poll shows a big swing to RUK vs the last one, I feel it still underestimates them. But that's just judgement. Others may see it differently. As per my post above, I favour RUK on this market right now, I wouldn't go further than that.

As far as Clacton itself goes, I closed out my position on that constituency. As I've covered more than once, I do not rule out dirty tricks.

I think whenever your judgment favours your wanted option it's time to take a BIIIIIIIIG step back.

ndecided Conservatives.

Which way do undecided 2019 Conservative voters (11% of all 2019 Conservatives) lean closest to voting? (14-17 June)

Conservative 36%
Reform 21%
Labour 16%
Lib Dem 7%
Green 6%
Other 1%

14% say they lean closer to NOT voting.



I think this kind of poll is quite significant. I reckon Reform's vote base is mostly baked in by now. I think the tories who would consider skipping have already thought about it and committed to it. I don't really see Reform winning over undecideds from here in large numbers, even those right of centre as in the above poll. I think the tory brand will hold up and I also think the last couple of weeks of the campaign will see the tories turn their guns on Reform far more.

Nothing to do with what I want when it comes to betting. I've been profiting from my instinct for two decades. I was talking up RUK when they were 30 to get over 20%, now they are just over 3.

Just be careful. That's all.

As you know I put up a bet for a Tory to win a seat. I've covered this but the narrative of the election is the Tory party (collapse). Of course you have 'Tories' who are far more comfortable siding with Ed that there is Farage. It's all basic stuff of course, but you have national picture and the constituency picture, then the turnout picture. Very little of it favours the Tories, and the desperation is seeping through. Personally, I don't think it will have much effect at this point.

Jun 19, 2024 -- 3:13PM, Cider wrote:

Nothing to do with what I want when it comes to betting. I've been profiting from my instinct for two decades. I was talking up RUK when they were 30 to get over 20%, now they are just over 3.

A link to this would be nice along with your bet.

Cider has his moments, but speaking as a risk manager the moment I hear someone say they're betting from their instincts then I'm rubbing my hands with glee.

When someone constantly claims what they have done but there is no trace of it, never posts bets and claims they win on instinct for twenty years, you can be guaranteed that they are talking complete pish.

Cider is OK, nobody posts bets, we take each other on trust.

Fairly easy to see who bets and who trolls, cider has his
own angle in, and I thing he could do better with
a bit more work, but making a few bob from what
you know isn't a bad start point.

I *think* he

People polling is weighted to 2016 referendum, is it not?

Not surprising to to see refuk doing well on those terms.

With individual polls I feel the direction of travel is the most informative, as it should disregard the methodology to most extent. It shows the momentum for RUK, the latest fieldwork is after the 'contract' was published.

Voters in Army’s Aldershot home are turning to Reform, says Tory

Conservative candidate Leo Docherty says ‘loads’ of people in constituency are supporting Nigel Farage’s party

A defence minister has said voters in the home of the British Army are turning to Reform UK.

Leo Docherty, a former soldier and the Conservative candidate for Aldershot, said “loads” of people in the constituency were supporting Nigel Farage’s party.

In an interview with Politico Playbook, Mr Docherty said Reform could have “a significant impact in our national politics in a kind of revolutionary way”.



interesting times :)

Labour gone from 4/9 to 1/3 there over the last couple of days. Reform unchanged at 50/1.

(B365)

Not a seat I have analysed. But it's not pulling up trees that RUK biting into Tory vote in Tory held seat helps the perceived contender.

Just the same as everywhere else. Tories shedding votes in both directions with Labour adding those to their base and about to win a supermajority.



What's the story with NW Leicestershire btw? Seen a few posts saying it looked likely for Reform but the MRP polls and the betting odds and they're not really in the race are they? Particularly with Bridgen also hanging round like a bad smell.

RUK Aldershot

5            £91.74
9.2            £10.00
9.8            £23.56
10            £200.00
11            £12.00

interesting there was money for RUK on here. quick look says Tories have a shot at holding imv. depends on if LD returns to what it was getting up to 2015

Cider
Very well done on 2023 number one betting but it's not what we're on about here. Nothing to do with it and no sign of a bet before the event is known.

it wasn't posted for your benefit, Charlie. just give up stalking me, you are obsessed.

PP what makes this so interesting is that it won't be a uniform swing to Labour. For example, a seat like Aldershot has LD pushing 40% up to the nutty Brexit times. It's an open question but I can see LD recovering some of that support in such seats. Can't see LD taking it but could make an argument for a hold, labour win and the RUK unknown. Certainly I would not be touching Labour at long odds on.

Jun 19, 2024 -- 9:10PM, Cider wrote:

it wasn't posted for your benefit, Charlie. just give up stalking me, you are obsessed.

Why was it posted?

When someone constantly claims what they have done but there is no trace of it, never posts bets and claims they win on instinct for twenty years, you can be guaranteed that they are talking complete pish.

Uniform swings are a thing of the past.

Will make polling after the election even more difficult.

Oh yeah, it's not uniform. But as a "describe this election in one sentence" it'll do. Haven't gotten round to backing anything properly yet but my strategy (I think) will mostly be on constituencies where I think Labour turnout may be lower than expected and open the door for someone else. I think where the Tories have a biggish majority then we should see a motivated vote to get them out (unless they're a good local MP of course) but there could be a bit of complacency in Labour safeish seats I reckon.

Oh, and is there a website that tells you where key party figures visit each day - eg Ed Davey was in Truro yesterday, Bristol Monday etc etc? Could be a handy indicator.

Oh, and is there a website that tells you where key party figures visit each day - eg Ed Davey was in Truro yesterday, Bristol Monday etc etc? Could be a handy indicator.

I think turnout will be higher amongst youngsters to get tories out.

Old always vote even when they say they can't be bothered.

I was listening to 3 lads in a works canteen today donny. I know them quite well and they never mention politics.
Ages 20 to 30 and none have ever voted but all are voting Reform. The beginnings of change just might be happening.

Wow. Another Reform fan saying how many people they're constantly meeting who are all also Reform fans. Quite the phenomenon of how this is happening everywhere.

It's good that youngsters take an interest.

I'd like to see everybody vote.

Seems as if a generation or more has left it to others.

Reform were always going to have a honeymoon hangover , given their manifesto .The suprising thing is that its been so small . My view hasnt changed , if you are a disillusioned Tory the one place your vote will carry the biggest message is for Reform . Still Conservative but the party has to change before we return .

The LibDems are a better option.