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The odds on a tory wipeout seem really low.
At the moment you can get 2.75 on the Tories getting 50-99 seats. That doesn't seem plausible to me.
The poills are indicating that is possible. But the polls have consistently overstated center-left Labour in every election stretching back to the 80's.
Sometimes by a lot. In 1997 Labour's actual vote share was 10% less than projected earlier. People didn't notice because it was still a landslide win but that's huge for bettors.
The only except was 2010 where the pollsters basically got it right.
The Tories are almost certainly going to lose the election. But there won't be a wipeout according to precednet.
Caveat: I'm not sure how Farage's return changes things. But while he's popular with his base I'm not sure how many moderates he will win over-Tice seem to be doing a good job of that.
Thoughts please. As of writing this I have no money in any political market on betfair or elsewhere. Not even sure how to bet into this frankly since I believe Labour will win and seat markets
aren't liquid.
(disclaimer: please no partisan stuff I don't care who wins as long as I make money out of it).
At the moment you can get 2.75 on the Tories getting 50-99 seats. That doesn't seem plausible to me.
The poills are indicating that is possible. But the polls have consistently overstated center-left Labour in every election stretching back to the 80's.
Sometimes by a lot. In 1997 Labour's actual vote share was 10% less than projected earlier. People didn't notice because it was still a landslide win but that's huge for bettors.
The only except was 2010 where the pollsters basically got it right.
The Tories are almost certainly going to lose the election. But there won't be a wipeout according to precednet.
Caveat: I'm not sure how Farage's return changes things. But while he's popular with his base I'm not sure how many moderates he will win over-Tice seem to be doing a good job of that.
Thoughts please. As of writing this I have no money in any political market on betfair or elsewhere. Not even sure how to bet into this frankly since I believe Labour will win and seat markets
aren't liquid.
(disclaimer: please no partisan stuff I don't care who wins as long as I make money out of it).
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I'm a rather lukewarm Labour supporter but I certainly want the Tories out. I would love to see them reduced to 50 seats but I think you're right and that is unlikely. My best guess would be about 140-160 seats.
They (Cons and Liebour) are 2 cheeks of the same bottom......if you have not realised this by now you never will imvho
History suggests no wipe out.
Incumbent mps tend to do better.
Incumbent mps tend to do better.
That's two cheeks of the same lying face as well. Whatever their rhetoric, we'll get the same thing. Tax, borrow, and spend, plus high immigration and woke.
Reform holds the key to the numbers of seats each of the big two gets. Many leftie losers are sick of sharing out the dwindling goodies with imports who despise them.
They want to go back to how it used to be the same as many Tory supporters.
We're told we need to import people to look after the old and sick. Now we find out we've been importing more people who need looking after than people prepared to work in those jobs. Which means immigration has been making matters worse.
Which anyone with any sense knew anyway.
Reform holds the key to the numbers of seats each of the big two gets. Many leftie losers are sick of sharing out the dwindling goodies with imports who despise them.
They want to go back to how it used to be the same as many Tory supporters.
We're told we need to import people to look after the old and sick. Now we find out we've been importing more people who need looking after than people prepared to work in those jobs. Which means immigration has been making matters worse.
Which anyone with any sense knew anyway.
The two cheeks of the same lying face crippens voted for for 25 years
Easily led soft brain.
Easily led soft brain.
.if you have not realised this by now you never will imvho
Donny leftie loser never will.
He still thinks the Sun is a Labour paper.
Donny leftie loser never will.
He still thinks the Sun is a Labour paper.
Soft brain desperately making stuff up
as it's pointed out what he actually did...
Ha ha ha
as it's pointed out what he actually did...
Ha ha ha
The two cheeks of the same lying face crippens voted for for 25 years
Oh, and calm down sucker.
How's the blood pressure these days?
Oh, and calm down sucker.
How's the blood pressure these days?
Dunno what's wrong with my statement
Maybe your soft brain can't deal with English.
Maybe your soft brain can't deal with English.
Thick idiot making stuff up and trying to correct English that is correct
Projecting his high blood pressure onto the forum
Delicious
Projecting his high blood pressure onto the forum
Delicious
That's one smacked leftie bum, and it isn't even midday.
Ha ha ha
Soft brain flapping around like a flappy thing
in a flapping competition at a flapping track in
flappington.
Soft brain flapping around like a flappy thing
in a flapping competition at a flapping track in
flappington.
The Tories will only be wiped out when they are no longer HMO.
If they were 3rd behind the Lib Dems and didn't have a high profile leader they just wouldn't get the media coverage. That would be their death nell.
If they were 3rd behind the Lib Dems and didn't have a high profile leader they just wouldn't get the media coverage. That would be their death nell.
Though some haters would suggest that those that are most eager to continually point out how much of a swatting and high blood pressure they induced are usually those able to induce the fewest swattings in reality.
If they were 3rd behind the Lib Dems and didn't have a high profile leader they just wouldn't get the media coverage. That would be their death nell.
Except Farage already getting lots more coverage than lib dems.
Except Farage already getting lots more coverage than lib dems.
The media love Farage because Farage = clicks
But without a seat he will disappear to America until mid November
Even with 10 seats he won't be hanging around with the other 9 bozos. Farage is essentially happiest as a one man band
But without a seat he will disappear to America until mid November
Even with 10 seats he won't be hanging around with the other 9 bozos. Farage is essentially happiest as a one man band
He was very persistent in the past, in building a party.
Advertising works, and he's getting plenty
of it.
Frank hester might need to get his hand back into
his pocket..
Advertising works, and he's getting plenty
of it.
Frank hester might need to get his hand back into
his pocket..
He can build here and get paid for helping trump
Ways and means, innit
Ways and means, innit
I don't know how much effort Farage actually puts into building a party.
He owns Reform lock stock and barrel but it is essentially a shell. Somewhere for people attracted by Farage.
AFAIK they don't have much of a structure or even manifesto beyond a list of complaints.
He owns Reform lock stock and barrel but it is essentially a shell. Somewhere for people attracted by Farage.
AFAIK they don't have much of a structure or even manifesto beyond a list of complaints.
Have laid Tories vs Reform voter share at 1.17 upwards . I have little interest in politics but just wonder if voters might do something really silly , purely as a protest .
Yeah, refuk is a private company as he lost control
of ukips, my own views are that it's a money making scheme, but
the party exists, and is thriving, relatively speaking,
and well ahead of expectation at this point.
The manifesto may escape scrutiny in the clamour
of all manifestos being published late due to
surprise nature of election.
of ukips, my own views are that it's a money making scheme, but
the party exists, and is thriving, relatively speaking,
and well ahead of expectation at this point.
The manifesto may escape scrutiny in the clamour
of all manifestos being published late due to
surprise nature of election.
I don't know how much more Reform can grow. I get the impression they have got almost all their potential supporters already.
Any further growth might need a very big / prominent personality to defect from the Tories.
Any further growth might need a very big / prominent personality to defect from the Tories.
I think maybe that's correct.
But with Sunak running an awful campaign and Starmer not
slapping down anybody, there is probably a bit more
possible growth.
Corbyn got slapped down, but right wing press seem
to be taking a raincheck on right wing battle.
But with Sunak running an awful campaign and Starmer not
slapping down anybody, there is probably a bit more
possible growth.
Corbyn got slapped down, but right wing press seem
to be taking a raincheck on right wing battle.
At the moment you can get 2.75 on the Tories getting 50-99 seats. That doesn't seem plausible to me.
You can lay at 2.64 today...
You can lay at 2.64 today...
I disagree that reform cannot grow ,sure atm only a protest vote and give the doomed tories a good send off but in 5 years this kneeling rsole ,rayner and abbott etc and shedload of lawyer speak wokery ,another 4/5 million mouths to give benefit to ,closer ties to the toxic EU ,rising unemployment ,500k a year train drivers and the realisation the NHS is unfixable.............do gooder namby pamby centrist blairite/cameroon bulls==t won't cut it
Purely logistically Reform cannot match the "party machine" of the big three ,financially ,bodies on the street ,quality of candidate etc etc
Propaganda so far (leaflets) Reform 0 ,Con 0 ,Labour 0 ,Liberals ,same leaflet x 4 separate individual deliveries.....keen but dim !
Propaganda so far (leaflets) Reform 0 ,Con 0 ,Labour 0 ,Liberals ,same leaflet x 4 separate individual deliveries.....keen but dim !
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