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cheese
06 Jun 24 09:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Mar 01
| Topic/replies: 2,458 | Blogger: cheese's blog
The odds on a tory wipeout seem really low.

At the moment you can get 2.75 on the Tories getting 50-99 seats. That doesn't seem plausible to me.

The poills are indicating that is possible. But the polls have consistently overstated center-left Labour in every election stretching back to the 80's.
Sometimes by a lot. In 1997 Labour's actual vote share was 10% less than projected earlier. People didn't notice because it was still a landslide win but that's huge for bettors.
The only except was 2010 where the pollsters basically got it right.

The Tories are almost certainly going to lose the election. But there won't be a wipeout according to precednet.

Caveat: I'm not sure how Farage's return changes things. But while he's popular with his base I'm not sure how many moderates he will win over-Tice seem to be doing a good job of that.

Thoughts please. As of writing this I have no money in any political market on betfair or elsewhere. Not even sure how to bet into this frankly since I believe Labour will win and seat markets
aren't liquid.

(disclaimer: please no partisan stuff I don't care who wins as long as I make money out of it).
Pause Switch to Standard View Odds on Tory wipeout seem nuts?
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Report salmon spray June 6, 2024 9:57 AM BST
I'm a rather lukewarm Labour supporter but I certainly want the Tories out. I would love to see them reduced to 50 seats but I think you're right and that is unlikely. My best guess would be about 140-160 seats.
Report DancingBraveTheBest June 6, 2024 10:04 AM BST
They  (Cons and Liebour) are 2 cheeks of the same bottom......if you have not realised this by now you never will imvhoSad
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 11:31 AM BST
History suggests no wipe out.

Incumbent mps tend to do better.
Report Dr Crippen June 6, 2024 11:32 AM BST
That's two cheeks of the same lying face as well. Whatever their rhetoric, we'll get the same thing. Tax, borrow, and spend, plus high immigration and woke.

Reform holds the key to the numbers of seats each of the big two gets. Many leftie losers are sick of sharing out the dwindling goodies with imports who despise them.
They want to go back to how it used to be the same as many Tory supporters.

We're told we need to import people to look after the old and sick. Now we find out we've been importing more people who need looking after than people prepared to work in those jobs. Which means immigration has been making matters worse.
Which anyone with any sense knew anyway.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 11:34 AM BST
The two cheeks of the same lying face crippens voted for for 25 years

Easily led soft brain.
Report Dr Crippen June 6, 2024 11:41 AM BST
.if you have not realised this by now you never will imvho

Donny leftie loser never will.

He still thinks the Sun is a Labour paper.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 11:48 AM BST
Soft brain desperately making stuff up
as it's pointed out what he actually did...

Ha ha ha
Report Dr Crippen June 6, 2024 11:49 AM BST
The two cheeks of the same lying face crippens voted for for 25 years

Oh, and calm down sucker.

How's the blood pressure these days?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 11:49 AM BST
Lower than yours soft brain
Report Dr Crippen June 6, 2024 11:50 AM BST
He lost it straight away. Lol.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 11:51 AM BST
Dunno what's wrong with my statement

Maybe your soft brain can't deal with English.
Report Dr Crippen June 6, 2024 11:53 AM BST
Job done.

Leftie losers are easily swatted away.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 11:54 AM BST
Thick idiot making stuff up and trying to correct English that is correct

Projecting his high blood pressure onto the forum

Delicious
Report Dr Crippen June 6, 2024 11:55 AM BST
That's one smacked leftie bum, and it isn't even midday.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 12:00 PM BST
Ha ha ha

Soft brain flapping around like a flappy thing
in a flapping competition at a flapping track in
flappington.
Report edy June 6, 2024 12:04 PM BST
Never seen a bigger swatting in all my life. What a burn!
Report SirNorbertClarke June 6, 2024 12:05 PM BST
The Tories will only be wiped out when they are no longer HMO.

If they were 3rd behind the Lib Dems and didn't have a high profile leader they just wouldn't get the media coverage. That would be their death nell.
Report edy June 6, 2024 12:06 PM BST
Though some haters would suggest that those that are most eager to continually point out how much of a swatting and high blood pressure they induced are usually those able to induce the fewest swattings in reality.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 12:09 PM BST
Still flapperty flapping

Delicious
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 12:10 PM BST
If they were 3rd behind the Lib Dems and didn't have a high profile leader they just wouldn't get the media coverage. That would be their death nell.


Except Farage already getting lots more coverage than lib dems.
Report SirNorbertClarke June 6, 2024 12:21 PM BST
The media love Farage because Farage = clicks

But without a seat he will disappear to America until mid November

Even with 10 seats he won't be hanging around with the other 9 bozos. Farage is essentially happiest as a one man band
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 12:27 PM BST
He was very persistent in the past, in building a party.

Advertising works, and he's getting plenty
of it.

Frank hester might need to get his hand back into
his pocket..
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 12:28 PM BST
He can build here and get paid for helping trump

Ways and means, innit
Report SirNorbertClarke June 6, 2024 12:37 PM BST
I don't know how much effort Farage actually puts into building a party.

He owns Reform lock stock and barrel but it is essentially a shell. Somewhere for people attracted by Farage.

AFAIK they don't have much of a structure or even manifesto beyond a list of complaints.
Report paulo47 June 6, 2024 12:39 PM BST
Have laid Tories vs Reform voter share at 1.17 upwards . I have little interest in politics but just wonder if voters might do something really silly , purely as a protest .
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 12:45 PM BST
Yeah, refuk is a private company as he lost control
of ukips, my own views are that it's a money making scheme, but
the party exists, and is thriving, relatively speaking,
and well ahead of expectation at this point.

The manifesto may escape scrutiny in the clamour
of all manifestos being published late due to
surprise nature of election.
Report SirNorbertClarke June 6, 2024 1:06 PM BST
I don't know how much more Reform can grow. I get the impression they have got almost all their potential supporters already.

Any further growth might need a very big / prominent personality to defect from the Tories.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 6, 2024 1:17 PM BST
I think maybe that's correct.

But with Sunak running an awful campaign and Starmer not
slapping down anybody, there is probably a bit more
possible growth.

Corbyn got slapped down, but right wing press seem
to be taking a raincheck on right wing battle.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 7, 2024 1:35 PM BST
At the moment you can get 2.75 on the Tories getting 50-99 seats. That doesn't seem plausible to me.



You can lay at 2.64 today...
Report flat16 June 7, 2024 1:54 PM BST
I disagree that reform cannot grow ,sure atm only a protest vote and give the doomed tories a good send off but in 5 years this kneeling rsole ,rayner and abbott etc and shedload of lawyer speak wokery ,another 4/5 million mouths to give benefit to ,closer ties to the toxic EU ,rising unemployment ,500k a year train drivers and the realisation the NHS is unfixable.............do gooder namby pamby centrist blairite/cameroon bulls==t won't cut it
Report SirNorbertClarke June 7, 2024 2:20 PM BST
Calm down
Report flat16 June 7, 2024 2:36 PM BST
Purely logistically Reform cannot match the "party machine" of the big three ,financially ,bodies on the street ,quality of candidate etc etc
Propaganda so far (leaflets) Reform 0 ,Con 0 ,Labour 0 ,Liberals ,same leaflet x 4 separate individual deliveries.....keen but dim !
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