UK - General Election - Key Constituencies - Clacton

Dunkirk , Normandy .. tributes to the British fighting men .. who always had courage
and bravery to fill an ocean

most reform voters would have marched with mosley so this comes as no suprise

Surely last on beach at Dunkirk is good, not first.

Of course England had no reason to declare war on Germany technically

Do were quite lucky that the Germans at Dunkirk  let them escape without shooting at them

The rest is history , silly krauts

Odds on Farage to win Clacton haven't eased, which surprises me. In fact 1.34 now.

I suppose when we drill down to individual seats, projections become more erratic?

AND ,, what a glorious history !!

biscuits , let us know when you have a clue who will win at Clacton , thankyou

You’re starting to resemble that dhead yak hunt

Bit like Trump. Any reformer coming out with pro-Nazi stuff is only gonna make the hardcore more determined to vote for them.

60,000 allies died at Dunkirk.

Yes yhtl ,  young boys really what courage under real danger and pressure these men queuing to wait their turn
And then returned to fight again ..

The English Army was,  and is , the best in the world

https://x.com/jovanforclacton/status/1802078276061372591?s=19

..

Must be one of the coolest cats in the election

any updates on nige's plans to get clacton back to work?

any updates on kneelers .. or on anything ?

no , ..

Ref 32.0    
Con 27.8
Lab 20.7     
Grn 7.8    
Oth 6.9    

Britain Predicts latest MRP.

That looks very close/margin of error stuff.

You think that greens are getting 8% in Clacton? MRP is very cumbersome, stated many times, it is modelling using polling data. Farage may or may not win in Clacton, but I advise against anyone putting money into individual consistency polls based on MRP data.

I don't think anybody will.

But if we post them all we get an idea of how
things are going. I posted a caveat about mrp
but in absence of owt better it's all we have.

Pretty extreme test for it here, so it's a measure
for future too.

Personally I feel it's more likely to lead to misdirection from a single seat perspective. We know that the last few elections were dominated by the brexit narrative. This time that counts for nowt, the storyline is the disintegration of the Tory vote. Then we have to work out how that will play out in the particular dynamics of the seat, the arrival of RUK, and stay at home Tories. I feel we can outperform any model as requires a modicum of sophistication. Some seats the Tory vote will absolutely flow to RUK (eg Boston), some LD (eg Cheltenham), others Labour (eg Canterbury). In a few dozen seats it probably holds up against the tide.

And then you have the complexities of Scotland, which I personally don't even touch.

It's just a gentle warning from me to others, not to be unduly influenced by MRP in regard to single seat betting.

Well I think you are judging it before you've seen if it works.

By all means treat with extreme caution but pick a few seats
and follow the projections, then see where it's worked
and where it didn't.

Could be money for jam down the road.

I can see how clunky it is already though. Take Survation and Brighton Pavilion as an example:

Lab: 30.6%
Con: 17.0%
Lib Dem: 0.7%
Green: 41.4%
Reform: 9.2%

Tory, ukip and Brexit got 19.1% combined in 2019. htf are they getting combined 26% this year when there is no brexit contention . It also doesn't seem to be able to cope with LD not putting up candidates since 2015.

Cards on the table. I have backed Labour here at 17.5 (for a fiver at 17.5 and £2 at 12.5)) and the tories (for £30, highest price 5.9). I just can't see any value in the price of Reform. They have an edge but nothing that can't be overcome.

there's no value in 1/3, certainly I would not bet that price. i cannot absolutely rule out dirty tricks from the establishment to keep Farage out of westminster.

i don't think that the mrp prediction for there is worth the pixels it uses up tho

The tories will be polling the seat, and we know
they bet on politics. I doubt the others are polling here.

The MRP sort of matches the exchange prices

All that free research at your fingertips...

Would be foolish to rely on the poll for betting.


But would be idiotic to completely ignore it.

https://x.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1802645485242433940?s=19

..

lpm 1.16 if you want to go in again, biscuits.

lpm 1.06, fill ya boots on the lay side biscuits. Backers have got a lot of faith in the integrity of the counting. More than I!

Throwing yer monets away because of illogical thoughts.

declaration time

Clacton    4am

Labour declared last week...

Not laying but there are virtual zero risk 1.06 shots, and this is not one of them. Great opportunity for biscuits tho

It's 1.05 free monets.

sod it, i'll stick up something on 1.05

goodness, i'll push it to 1.07, though i dont really know why, im £3.87 green the field :)

oh, no i wont, its been taken already

seems like some last minute nerves have arrived for nigel on this market, had assumed to be red here after those lays, but the backs arrived

Well, Farage won, unfortunately. When he was an MEP he was largely truant from the European Parliament; I hope constituency grunt work keeps him quiet for five years but expect the roar of the greasepaint and the smell of the crowd to prove irresistible.

Reform deffo did for the tory ‘top brass’, their 14.3% of the popular vote nutted plenty of tories in some tight seats…with several only just hanging on with the skin of their teeth,

It’s a bit like The Night of the Long Knives
The right wing vote getting shown what happens when they arn’t right enough, hopefully Reform can become the main voice of the Right as Labour fk it all up as always.

Just need a Reichtag Fire next….

Well dustybin, it's a free country and I'm sure Kier Starmer will exercise that freedom by completely ignoring Reform until 2029. He's done his job for Labour. Thanks.

Done his job just being a cut-out.
How many know what he has planned?
He just waited as the tories imploded and the right emerged.

As soon as he starts to do anything people will see he has nowt.

I saw a doc on Bowie once where he showed how he came up with the lyrics for his songs; he just cut words out of newspapers and rearranged them.
His fans thought there were some profound meanings to them…but it was just word salad.

‘The sunlight of hope, pale at first but getting stronger through the day shining once again on a country with the opportunity after 14 years to get it;s future back’

How many scripts were cut up for that one? Pure meaningless rhetoric….’get its future back’….he just moved ‘country’ and applied sunshine.
What a quim this guy is.

Oh are you talking about Starmer now? You're right, dustybin, Farage is an irrelevance. Reform is not an option for grown-ups. This made me chuckle:

https://youtube.com/shorts/KSIKPMkKw2E?si+NPnSwZc9lzc3hsX9

Ironic on a number of levels that I happened to walk down a street in Sheffield the other week I hadn’t been down for many years, called London Road.

And if it’s not barbershop it’s a take away shop. For about 2 miles out from town.
And there were hardly anyone in any of the ones I looked in.

Apparently Farage is less of an irrelevance than you might have thought yesterday.
At least he commits to something, unlike Starmer who is so scared of his back bench that if he dares imply anything close to jingoistic they will pounce on him calling him a racist.
What does he stand for exactly?

Apparently your new PM - a decent, well meaning man, according to your last one - can safely ignore anything Farage says until 2029, because Reform has no leverage. Farage's job now is to hear the complaints of the good people of Clacton re sewage, potholes and Turkish barbers (and he can't do anything about the latter). I think I'll take my cue from Starmer and just ignore Reform too for the next five years.

Starmer's job is to keep refuk relevant.

He needs refuk to take tory votes

If refuk and tories unite he suffers as corbyn did.

Why wouldn't Farage try to join the Conservative Party and throw Reform voters under a bus? He's had their £25 membership and £5 turn-up fees.

Yes ub those two are like having a debate at Eton. They were phoneys just pretending to hate each other. Deep down neither gives a sh1t about Britain, or Brits and share almost the same ideology.

There are plenty of fake tories that would by far prefer Starmer was the pm to many MPs of their own (apparent) side.

Let them join his side. Far more tories would take Starmer over farrage

The only direct influence over Starmer for the next 5 years will be his own infighting, but as an influence reform can shape what right of centre looks like going forward.
The first stage is done, all the old form are out, and the way is clear for a couple of more fervent types to battle for the tory soul.

Starmer has the audacity to say he is more for the working man than the others, what utter bs.

exactly laugh as they belong with ed davey

The key lesson for labour is to not lean into the immigration argument. They will always be outflanked and as the tories showed, it's the route to disaster. Just state the case clearly about why immigration is where it's at and what the plan is for jobs, housing, education etc. Let the frothers froth, and then get on with rebuilding the country. Just get things working again. Party politics is one thing, but the big issue in the country is that things have just stopped working. Let's just have a couple of years of competence please.

It's easy to get nett immigration down. (or should be)

[Not same as reducing number of migrants.]

We really don't need to keep increasing population
by 500k each year.

Of course we may need some years of high nett intake
but there should be many years we do not.

Surely student numbers cannot keep increasing at current
rate.

I don't really get why students are counted in it. They come for three years, and they go. They're a massive boon for the economy while they're here. It's different if people are coming to work (not on a fixed term contract) or joining family, fleeing horrors etc.

Well yeah they are only counted for the year they arrive in nett migration

And removed in year they leave.


For the years they are here they live in this country
so use uk services and live in uk accommodation so
need to be included

Of course we benefit from them being here, but
we can't just expand numbers indefinitely, there
are only so many unis, and courses,...

Yeah, I've never liked the over-commercialisation of university education. But if that's the route you're choosing to go down, and the fees charged to foreigners are so much higher than to brits, then capitalism dictates that they'll want as many of the golden calves as they can possibly get.

Yes ub those two are like having a debate at Eton. They were phoneys just pretending to hate each other. Deep down neither gives a sh1t about Britain, or Brits and share almost the same ideology.

The things you hate about Sunak and Starmer are the things I like about them, Cider.

A couple of days ago I was talking with a fella whose son was standing for Reform. He is a nice guy, Cypriot by birth, never voted before, rightly proud of his son. It was a good conversation for me to have. There is a time to put aside cynicism and acknowledge the debt we owe people who go into public service thinking they can make a difference: afterwards I thought: Farage proved the worst kind of Parliamentarian in Brussels: but this son of the guy I was talking to is 19.

What forums like this don't do is put people with opposing convictions facing each other over a dinner table. My paper does this and reports the conversation every Saturday. I could name some readers sneering as they read this but that interaction does make a difference.

Let's be positive, just for one day.

I don't believe it's difficult ub, effective leaders have conviction and aren't afraid of being unpopular in the short term in order to deliver their long term goals. In my own small world I am very familiar with those variables. Modern politics is simply about managing the media and keeping the London hacks happy (trying to). Keith or Sunak don't believe in anything other than achieving their personal goals (which aren't usually compatible with the country's). Example, Sunak spent months in the Tory leadership contest confirming he was open to fracking, his very first question at PMQs after finally getting the job was to reject fracking. When his team put together the absurd 5 promises all they did was select measures they though were guaranteed to happen anyway (absurdly cynical). Of course it blew up in his face as he has zero political nouse and actually thought the nhs wouldn't screw him over.

Anyhow, exactly how this plays out nobody knows but Farage and the rest of Reform will disrupt the cosy world of westminster and the uni party. They will be a bigger thorn in the side of Keith than anything the feeble emasculated Tory remnants will be able to muster.

I suspect Labour are more worried about the four Green MP's than watching the tories rip themselves apart for a bit. Those greens could drag Labour across to the left a bit.

day 1 of nige getting clacton back to work!

They will be a bigger thorn in the side of Keith than anything the feeble emasculated Tory remnants will be able to muster.

they will only be a thorn in the side of the tories. for labour they have so far have proved themselves very useful idiots

Farage is somebody who likes throwing bottles from the back of the hall.

Farage will never be leader of the Conservative Party. That's all you need to know about him, for the next five years.

Poor Reform voters, what have they bought for £25 - plus £5 to see Farage appear?
A Leader who would throw them under a bus if only the Conservative Party would take him in with some kudos.

I don't see it like that at all, Labour support is very thin, a frankly embarrassing 1/3 of the voting electorate and a leader who inspires noone. Today's results show that many Labour seats are vulnerable to Reform. If you can only achieve 34% at your peak then it doesn't take much at all for that to weaken quickly. I feel like Reform and Farage will target further inroads into that Labour support and allow the Tories to self destruct. Let's see what Keith and his cronies will be able to deliver now that they are not just lobbing grenades from the cheap seats.

Great Victory for Reform...4 seats..... 3 more than Jeremey Corbyn or twice as many as Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott. Reform are going to be a great influence on this Parliament

Labour win a landslide victory: why this is a terrible result for Starmer and proves how unpopular he is - me in The Telegraph

Basically the next five years comes down to two things imo. Labour to achieve some things, start fixing stuff and get life somewhere back to where most of the electorate remember it. Do that and they've a really solid base to win the next and the next after that. Secondly, what the tories manage to do. They're still a huge brand and the election showed the loyalty of their base despite anyone with working eyes and ears wondering how anyone could ever support them. If the tories manage to draw a line, banish this period to the history books with a slew of new shadow ministers breaking the links to Johnson, Truss, Rees-Mogg et al then they will probably recover and be a force again. If they don't and carry on getting wrapped up in the stuff that's dragged them down, then I think they'll fade away and Reform or whatever they morph into will be the main right wing party.

Everyone knows it's the function of the system. Even the staunchest of Labour nuts could mot legitimately claim that Starmer rides in on a massive public mandate and a wave of optimism. Everyone knew they would still get a big landslide and lots of MPs due to the quirks of fptp.

He's not a corrupt tory.

Public turned to trusted parties to get rid of them.

Now Starmer is government and will be judged on it.

Mandate... Who cares at next election there will
be 5 years to judge him on.

Ed Davey got 5 years for rehearsing stunts

Far right got 5 years of scrutiny... Actors, lol

Torys got 5 years in jail for fraud, will public give
them parole?

In ten sylabbles: Electorate voted for less drama.

Easy to say the biggest thing is the rejection of the tories. Certainly Reform would have done next to nothing if the right wingers hadn't fled from their safe homes. But you have to give Starmer credit. Labour were an utter shambles after the 2019 election. He inherited a basket case and was up against a very popular PM who was shoving through his main policy. That he has managed to go from there to winning such a big landslide is an achievement that political historians will write about for decades. It's pretty much unheard of. But the election campaign itself was about safety first. Labour had built a huge lead and all they could do was lose it. Don't do a Theresa and a death tax. Don't do a Corbyn and make uncosted promises. Just carry on being the face of boring competence. Where it mattered, and where people knew they needed to vote to make the change, then Labour easily convinced the public to come out for them. But equally, we all knew it was a foregone conclusion from months out so there was a lot of stay-at-homes who just couldn't be bothered.

The interesting and amusing thing will be seeing how Farage tries to argue the case to do away with the FPTP system. Especially as the public were asked in 2011 and very firmly decided they wanted to stick with it. Is he so against the democratic will of the people or will he make the case that as things change then it is time to re-visit things like this and to re-test the will of those people? I imagine a lot of people will be listening very closely to what he says.

Is he so against the democratic will of the people

would hardly make him unique given the response by many to the Brexit vote...

^ A lot of Labours recent image is down to a fella called Morgan McSweeney from Macroom.

Indeed. But for him to open the door to it invites the obvious follow-up. Who knows? Maybe that's exactly what he wants: another enemy to rail against.

Unlike a lot of Labour diehards I still love my country and would be as chuffed as anyone if Labour stopped the rot, never mind moved things forward. There's no indication they will do anything substantially or materially different to the Tory lightweights, all they are banking on is 'we're not them' as far as I can see.

I guess we don't have too long to find out what the actual agenda is.

Start sententece with tear filled abuse
nobody reads the rest.

Is he so against the democratic will of the people

would hardly make him unique given the response by many to the Brexit vote...

I guess you mean me. But not the same case. All I (and my ilk) wanted was a vote to confirm whether leaving the EU was what was reallt wanted. And the country was denied that opportunity. Instead, Govt cemented the exit.

Eight years down the line, it is too late to change. So, we're poorer, but we're supposed to be happier.

What was sometime a paradox: after you give Leavers power, and they mess it up, they're still cross. Perpetually so, on today's evidence.

But, to quote, a loser is a loser.

Basildon South and East Thurrock

Ref: 30.8% (+30.8)
Lab: 30.5% (+7.0)
Con: 25.7% (-39.8)
Ind: 4.9% (-1.9)
Grn: 4.3% (+4.2)

Ref GAIN from Con

5

All I (and my ilk) wanted was a vote to confirm whether leaving the EU was what was reallt wanted

And you'd have asked for the same if remain had won. In your dreams.

No but Farage would, that's on record. To quote "unfinished business."

See, the reason many people just cannot accept Farage as a mature political operator is, he is only suited to the role of the constant moaner.
When he carried voters hopes into the European Parliament, he abused the privilege. He was a truant. That is his character. It's ok lonely people giving him £25 to be his friend, but don't get in deep:- he'll throw you under a bus again.

A Starmer fan critical of others throwing people under the bus. Takes the biscuits.

8 years on people still haven't gotten over losing a democratic vote. I guess that's the source of visceral hate directed at Farage. Yes you hate him I get it but it's going to be fun him showing up the rest of the lightweights in the HoC for what they really are.

How's he going to show them up

By declaring his income and sponsors?

Ok. Please point out for the forum where he will sit in the House Of Commons. He could apply for an upgrade if he goes back to the Tories, but they probably won't have him. It's a it unfair, but the first word the electorate associate with Nigel is "racist."

Singlehandedly achieves over 4 million votes as a start up party and gets 5 elected MPs. Who else in parliament could achieve that? I give you the answer as well, none of them. They are all nothing without their respective party machines.

He got 4 million with his startup in 2015.

Hes not really progressed very far

There are only so many fall for the grift

tbf there's plenty of room on the opposition benches. absolutely no idea where they will sit, possibly with DUP. Not sure it's an uber critical variable.

He just changed the name of his registered company
didn't even start up a new one.

Simple thing to have done... Schoolboy stuff

who else could achieve that laugh? Keith would be invisible without the labour party, certainly nowhere near parliament via a democratic vote. Doesn't even get people motivated in his own seat !

Who else?

Moseley done it

Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn have half the amount of seats that Reform
Have

Nice work Nigel

Any more for any more?

2/5 ths

my mp Joanna cherry snp - Edinburgh south west lost

tories switched to labour to take her out

Edinburgh / Glasgow

zero snp mps

Lab/tory direct tactical voting coming to a country near you soon...