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keyboard_line
03 Jun 24 00:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Mar 21
| Topic/replies: 813 | Blogger: keyboard_line's blog
labour 400
conservative 200
yer ma the rest
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Report keyboard_line June 10, 2024 10:22 PM BST
i have not been keeping up clearly, the tories are odds on to get under a hundred seats, gee wizz

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229716727
Report keyboard_line June 10, 2024 10:28 PM BST
thats the first time i looked at that, does it make sense, maybe, i dunno
Report Escapee June 10, 2024 11:37 PM BST
Rishi is campaigning like a clown in a bucket of custard, I wouldn't be surprised if the lectern comes out in downing street before the election.
Report Ronaldmcdonald June 10, 2024 11:40 PM BST
You won't be any better off with Starmer. He's the clown who was in charge of the CPS when they let Savile go scot free.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 10, 2024 11:49 PM BST
This mrp might not allow for incumbancy.

Interesting to see how accurate they can be.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2024 8:12 AM BST
Spin have Tory seats at ~122.

Though they have Reform seats at #6 which I think is a bit high.
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 2:42 AM BST
i cant stop considering +-95 musnt ever really happen for a second party total, i asked gpt
Summary:
Lowest: 52 seats by Labour in 1931.
Second-Lowest: 209 seats by Labour in 1983.
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 2:44 AM BST
100
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 2:45 AM BST
i mean 99.5, but to be fair thats not relevant
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 2:54 AM BST
1931 was like extrodinary, but with an explanation on the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 2:56 AM BST
this lot say , **** cant remember
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 4:47 AM BST
Thus, the analysis confirms that the second-lowest number of seats won by a second-placed party in a UK general election is 209 seats by the Labour Party in 1983.
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 4:49 AM BST
but the first is?
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 4:50 AM BST
Apologies for any confusion earlier. Let's clarify the lowest number of seats won by a second-placed party in a UK general election:

The lowest number of seats won by a second-placed party in a UK general election occurred in 1931. The Labour Party, led by Arthur Henderson, won only 52 seats in that election, finishing second behind the Conservative Party, which secured a landslide victory with 470 seats.

So, to summarize:

The lowest number of seats won by a second-placed party: 52 seats by the Labour Party in 1931.
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 4:58 AM BST
was there a reason for that unusual result in 1931?
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 4:58 AM BST
**** i thought that was gpt, i'll try get there now
Report keyboard_line June 22, 2024 4:59 AM BST
Yes, the unusual result of the Labour Party winning only 52 seats in the 1931 UK general election can be attributed to several significant political and economic factors:



In summary, the 1931 UK general election resulted in the Labour Party winning only 52 seats primarily due to internal party divisions, the impact of the Great Depression on public opinion, and the formation of the National Government coalition led by Ramsay MacDonald. This election marked a significant moment in British political history, shaping the subsequent direction of party politics and governance during a period of economic crisis.
Report xmoneyx June 22, 2024 6:12 PM BST
anyone feel some pollsters will have egg on face
Report yak hunt June 22, 2024 6:17 PM BST

Jun 22, 2024 -- 6:12PM, xmoneyx wrote:


anyone feel some pollsters will have egg on face


It really depends how far away from the final result they have been. Remember, when a poll is released, it is a snapshot in time. As the date of the election becomes closer, polls tend to become more accurate as folks finally make their minds up who they are going to support.

Report xmoneyx June 22, 2024 6:25 PM BST
sky news use you gov


normaly quite accurate
Report yak hunt June 22, 2024 6:31 PM BST
I personally believe they are the best, particularly their MRP polls which have been proven in past elections.
Report Cider June 22, 2024 6:42 PM BST
It really depends how far away from the final result they have been. Remember, when a poll is released, it is a snapshot in time. As the date of the election becomes closer, polls tend to become more accurate as folks finally make their minds up who they are going to support.


Thanks for clearing that up.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 22, 2024 7:01 PM BST
Nearly as techy as richi

Shouldn't you be defending farrage rather than
starting bush fires with folk pointing out basics.
Report xmoneyx June 22, 2024 7:02 PM BST
back in 2015

sky news you gov said SNP would win 57/59 seats scotland

labour. called it bunkum

result 56/59
Report yak hunt June 22, 2024 8:25 PM BST
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canterbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

For anyone who doubts YouGov MRP polls, have a look at the above link for results from the Canterbury constituency. In 2015 the tories won very easily. Now look at the 2017 election result just above it. YouGov said Labour would win the seat. They did (at 25/1) Ching ching.
Report xmoneyx June 23, 2024 9:47 AM BST
A former Tory cabinet minister scorns MRP polling as “voodoo science”
Report xmoneyx June 23, 2024 10:19 AM BST
10 days

seems a lifetime

thank god euros championship is on
Report xmoneyx June 23, 2024 10:33 AM BST
GB Energy will be a massive scandal for the labour government

a public company that doesn't actually produce energy
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