england local/mayor elections thurs

No probs, I've always known them as ratepayers alliance
but whatever name they go under its usually to bring folks
together away from bigger parties and gain cross
political alliances to help locals.

Lots of indies don't bother and just stand as independent.

Times change and RA seem to be seen as a bit old fashioned
compared to independent.

Locals will likely do a bit of research to see
what label might improve chances of beating big party.

Complete result North East Mayoral

Kim McGuinness (LAB) – 185,051 (41.3%)

Jamie Driscoll (IND) – 126,652 (28.2%)

Guy Renner-Thompson (CON) – 52,446

North East Mayoral Election Paul Donaghy (REF) – 41,147

Aidan King (LD) – 25,485

Andrew Gray (G) – 17,631

I thought that would have been closer.

McGuiness was crime commissioner v Driscol who
was north tyneside mayor. Starmer v corbyn...?

Thought it was a shoo in... Couldn't find betting..

yak, please don't use a dash infront of your numbers I read it as minus (a colon may be better)

McGuiness has been very well presented, and
looks good/sounds good on local tv.

May 3, 2024 -- 2:37PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

McGuiness was crime commissioner v Driscol whowas north tyneside mayor. Starmer v corbyn...?Thought it was a shoo in... Couldn't find betting..

Smarkets had all mayoral elections betting.

North Yorkshire (& York) mayoralty, result:

LAB: 35.1%
CON: 27.3%
LDEM: 16.2%
GRN: 8.0%

New entity, but:
Labour notional GAIN from Conservative.

What price was she?

Can't have been bigger than 1.15/1.20 surely?

May 3, 2024 -- 2:42PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

What price was she?Can't have been bigger than 1.15/1.20 surely?

1.93 was the highest priced matched that I can see. She was trading around 1.4 last night.

Billy Mountains were 1.36 until 9pm last night.

Khans on the drift in London, out to 1.10--1.11 today

was 1.03 yesterday morning.

Wow, 1.4 seems huge, deffo missed out there.

May 3, 2024 -- 2:51PM, Escapee wrote:

Khans on the drift in London, out to 1.10--1.11 todaywas 1.03 yesterday morning.

That just has to be a free 10% return on your investment in a day.

1.12/1.14 now. Hall is 8.2/8.4. Those prices seem nuts.

Hall got a Ferrari?

1.12--1.13 now

Khans had a charisma by-pass. His TV appearances are full of monotone deflection, abstract dross and faux claims about what he's done and going to do.

England council results
58 of 107 councils.


LAB 576 (+97)
CON 203(-231)
LD 195 (+33)

For Khan not to win, would be the biggest polling miss in UK history.

Probably our mischievous right wing friends manipulating
the market to create headline chat and deflect from dreadful
Tory results today.

For Khan not to win, would be the biggest polling miss in UK history.

Polls are likely going to be unsure how to factor in the new voter ID bias, unless they specifically ask "If you are under 60, do you have Driving Licence or Passport, or have you applied for Voter ID"?

1.2 traded on khan, 5.2 on Hall.

Polls are likely going to be unsure how to factor in the new voter ID bias, unless they specifically ask "If you are under 60, do you have Driving Licence or Passport, or have you applied for Voter ID"?

What percentage of the voters will it affect and why would it favour one party over another?

Voter ID in London shouldn't be significantly
different to elsewhere. And postal votes are available anyway.

Rumours started on twitter and were initially discounted.

If khans vote has gone elsewhere, it won't go to Hall,
you'd expect the without Khan and hall market to
show a bit more, surely.

i live in an outer london borough and had to queue to vote yesterday. my guess is that, sadly, most werent voting for binface but were voting for hall in order to get khan out.

imo, the equation is quite simple, are there enough people in the outer boroughs voting for hall in order to overcome khan's advantage in the inner city and will his core vote be motivated to turn up? the change in prices suggests some think the answer is yes.

What percentage of the voters will it affect
I dunno what percent it affects. But it's a significant extra hoop to jump through if you are under 60yo as the only ID accepted is Passport or Driving License, or pre applied for Voter ID.


and why would it favour one party over another?
Inner Londoners are far less likely to have a drivers license than outer Londoners,
It may be that Inner Londoners are more likely to have a passport because of immigrant distribution, it may not.

Given that outer london tends to vote blue, inner london Red, I am guessing (as is anyone) that there may be less voters in Innner london than had there been no Voter ID requirement, and that will affect different parties differently.

whatever happens the tories really should have picked a better candidate than hall.

If Corbyn ran he would beat them both

May 3, 2024 -- 3:57PM, Escapee wrote:

What percentage of the voters will it affect I dunno what percent it affects. But it's a significant extra hoop to jump through if you are under 60yo as the only ID accepted is Passport or Driving License, or pre applied for Voter ID.and why would it favour one party over another?Inner Londoners are far less likely to have a drivers license than outer Londoners,It may be that Inner Londoners are more likely to have a passport because of immigrant distribution, it may not.Given that outer london tends to vote blue, inner london Red, I am guessing (as is anyone) that there may be less voters in Innner london than had there been no Voter ID requirement, and that will affect different parties differently.

I can virtually guarantee that no more than two percent of possible voters will not be able to vote and that they will be supporters of various parties.

And here is an example...

On voter ID, we had to send away about 12 people at our station (out of 470 odd) and all but 2 came back later.

2 people used the voter authority certificates.

This was in West Norwood, Lambeth.

It's not called "leafy west norwood" for nothing.

I can virtually guarantee that no more than two percent of possible voters will not be able to vote and that they will be supporters of various parties.

I respect your overall political betting analysis and opinions, but I'm a doubter of your opinion and confidence on this particular occasion.

G'luck

1.3 matched on khan about 1 minute ago.

I've been matched on khan at 1.14 & 1.22 (1.18 avg)

it's volatile, currently 1.20-21

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1786419923025088821

the suggestion is that turnout is down in both tory and labour areas.


i think something similar happened in the betting last time around when shaun bailey was the tory candidate.

That tweet is suggesting a 4% drop in turn out. If so, 2% due to voter ID is a probably reasonable call Yak Hunt, I thought it might be higher.

Having a look on LondonElects.com and trying to compare 2021 turnout with 2024 turnout

Lambeth & Southwark Turnout
2021	2024
41%	34%

Barnet & Camden 39.59%
City & East 31.17%
Ealing & Hillingdon 42.98%
Greenwich & Lewisham 40.33%
Lambeth & Southwark 33.96%
Merton & Wandsworth 45.99%

Ok, a lower turnout traditionally helps the tories. However, on some recent polls Hall is a clear 20% behind. How can she make up that sort of gap? Folks that have already used their postal vote will be included in those polls so those votes aren't going to change. Regarding voting id, if any party was going to be significantly affected (I don't believe that they will), it will be the tories as their voters are more elderly.

if any party was going to be significantly affected (I don't believe that they will), it will be the tories as their voters are more elderly.

I disagree, there are 22 forms of ID acceptable, only 2 of them are available to most under 60's
Pretty much everyone over 60 in london has a free bus pass, which is acceptable photo ID.
Voter ID hindrance is almost non existent for over 60's in London.

Fair point but not everyone claims their bus pass.

The betting market is doing some crazy things!

i had a back at 1.3 that got matched about 20 minutes ago, it traded as high as 1.4 in the spike.
currently 1.28--29
wild stuff.

anyone know what the high street bookies odds are? are they as volatile as on here?

I don't think any high street or online bookies are betting on it now, only exchanges. Btw, the Lambeth turnout has been altered to 39%.

Lambeth turnout has been altered to 39%.

good programmers are hard to find.

Are bookies taking bets?

Why wouldn't they do this before polls closed?

Surely more benefit.

There were plenty of bookies betting on it till about 9pm last night. Once polls closed, only exchanges trading.

Any 1.3 left?

England council results
103 of 107 councils.Counting under way.

Number of councillors
LAB 1,051 (+177)
LDEM 508 (+101)
CON 501 (-456)
IND 225 (+93)
GRN 171 (+68)
RA 48 (+11)
REFUK 0 (NC)

Khan went 0--1.01 about half an hour a go. Hall is 190--250

Count Binface got my vote, the only serious option for a meaningless protest vote.

I would have voted Binface too.

If it was close between Khan and Hall I would
have voted Khan.

Obviously I can't vote in Landen elections

Mr Khan has polled 45.1%; Ms Hall 31.1%.

Tommy Robinson SEETHING

If you change the religion and ethnicity of a place expect the vote accordingly
to go along religious and ethnic lines ,, it’s demographics and the same the world over

West Midlands mayoral looks to be very close indeed.

West Midlands mayoral looks to be very close indeed.

1.09-1.16 labour, The (relatively small) money says conservative lose it

Laura kuensberg part of the disinformation around
London mayor rumours last night

Labour's Sadiq Khan has secured a historic third term as London mayor, seeing off Tory challenger Susan Hall.

It followed "wild rumours" the incumbent could have suffered a shock defeat, although both sides subsequently said they believed Mr Khan would win.

He received just over 1,088,000 votes (43.7%) to be re-elected, a majority of some 275,000 over Ms Hall, who secured just under 812,000 votes (32.6%)






32.6%, shakes heed, unbelievable what folk vote for.

Sky...


Street's team asking for recount in West Midlands - Labour sources
Amid a very tight mayoral race in the West Midlands, Labour sources have told Sky News the Conservative incumbent Andy Street's team is asking for a recount.

Those same Labour sources have suggested the scale of Labour's win in Birmingham - which has by far the biggest number of voters - means a recount will not make any difference at all.

Our political editor Beth Rigby warns the race is still too close to call, with an independent candidate having also performed well.

But our lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge notes: "You don't tend to ask for a recount if you're happy with the way the results have gone".

A full recount has been ordered in the Coventry borough in the West Midlands, where the mayoral race is currently "too close to call".

The recount is expected to take a couple of hours.

A short time ago, Labour sources told Sky News a recount was requested by Conservative incumbent Andy Street's team.

Allegedly, after the tories asked for a full bundle count, a discrepancy of some sort was discovered at the Coventry count. Hence, a full recount only there, at the moment that is.

Looks like the Tories have lost around 500 councillors.

Good.

Bad news is that they retained 500.

500 too many, imo.

Cheers yak.

Tim Farron

Lib Dems have beaten the Tories into 3rd across the country. Utterly amazing. This is surely the biggest story of this election.  Currently waiting for certain commentators to stop waffling on about those losers at Reform and update their hot takes…

There's been some great action on the Midland mayor market over the last hour

Labour have been getting backed around 1.15 I've been getting £££ lays matched on conservatives  from 3.0 to 4.0
The markets been going 120% overround on the pink side

party looks to be over now as there's £5,000 wanting to back labour at 1.01

Nice work escapee.

Listening to proper pollster and good journalists
has proven to be a real monetspinner

Little turd Sunak reversing his helicopter
back into garage...

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1786435290720067795?s=19

..

Sky's political editor Beth Rigby says her sources have told her they think Labour has taken the West Midlands mayoralty by just over a thousand votes.

We have been reporting all afternoon the race was going down to the wire, with one recount ordered in Coventry.

BBC reported mid afternoon that Conservative guy asked for a 'Bundle' check. I.E. a check that none of the counted bundles of votes for each candidate was in the wrong pile.
He said it indicated conservative had lost by a couple of thousand.

During that check, BBC reported that a 'Discrepancy' (Dunno what) had been found in the Coventry votes, so a full recount of that district was started.

after a couple of hours it occurred to me that the bundle check = couple of thousand was the key, a recount rarely finds a couple of thousand votes, so I piled in laying any backs on Conservatives at prices people seemed to be happy to back at.

It ain't official yet, fingers crossed

Well if you were worried you could lay at 1.01
or back streeter at 160, currently.

A Conservative source in the Midlands, with good knowledge of the campaign, tells me: "It was never going to end well, as the campaign was a mess.

"Literature arriving late, activists only turning up for photos. Too much hubris and arrogance, assuming we'd win 'because it's Andy'.

"Good experienced people not consulted, brought in or engaged. I'm gutted, the West Midlands is screwed."

it's the smallest nuggets of information that can bring the bigger wins.


"He said it indicated conservative had lost by a couple of thousand."

Thankyou Mr BBC Reporter

Two points regarding the mayoral elections...

1/ There were some spectacular polling misses, particularly of minor candidates, by newer polling companies. Redfield and Wilton for example polled the West Midlands twice, the first time getting 7% for the LibDem candidate, the second time his share had increased to 8% they reckoned. He got 2%. YouGov had him spot on at 2%.

2/ The betting after the ridiculous ramping of Susan Hall yesterday was ludicrous and if folks fell for it and lost money, well, I'm sorry, but the chances of Khan losing, according to established and reliable pollsters was virtually zero.

When bbc Laura is involved and she's a known
name on official tory spin lists you have to wonder
if the tories just sank to new depths.

NEW: England Council Results 2024

LAB: 1,140 (+185)
LDM: 521 (+104)
CON: 513 (-473)
IND: 228 (+93)
GRN: 181 (+74)
RA: 48 (+11)
WPB: 4 (+4)
RFM: 2 (+2)

Changes w/ seats in 2021
106/107 councils declared
Final council, Salford, tomorrow

(Salford has 1/3 of seats up, but only 8 tories
out of 60 seats anyway. So they are not going
to hit the 500)

When bbc Laura is involved and she's a known
name on official tory spin lists you have to wonder
if the tories just sank to new depths.

mischief is now the tory strategy

UK, England local elections, final results:

Councillors elected

LAB-S&D: 1,158 (+186)
LDEM-RE: 522 (+104)
CON~ECR: 515 (-474)
Ind-*: 227 (+92)
GPEW-G/EFA: 181 (+74)
RAs-*: 48 (+11)
WPB-*: 4 (new)
REFORM~NI: 2 (+2)
WEP-*: 1 (+1)

+/- vs. 2021 and 2022 elections

How on earth did Reform get 2 seats? Recount surely!

Britain elects forecast


NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other




Didn't model enough for greens, indies and other tic tac voting

Same error as being extrapolated by thrasher on sky predictions
for gen election...

Lab: 40.9%
Con: 31.8%
Lib Dem: 13.1%
Ind/Other: 7.0%
Green: 4.8%
Ref: 1.6%
Plaid: 0.8%

So 1.6% for Reform in their best targeted seats at the elections. Never mind, I am sure they will get a much higher percentage of votes when Scotland and Northern Ireland are included in a General election

Seriously, I cannot see them getting into double figures and there are markets out there, including on here, with 20% plus being an option. That should be 1000.0 and more if it was allowed.

Blackpool

Labour     Chris Webb     10,825     58.9    
    Conservative     David Jones     3,218     17.5    
    Reform UK     Mark Butcher     3,101     16.9




It'll get squeezed in places, and in others they
will be a protest vote. Leeanderthal might get
close to winning a seat.

Tice continues to pump millions in to have his say.

That Blackpool by election was a perfect opportunity for Reform. They had everything in their favour yet only managed 16.9%. If that's the best they can do, they won't win a single seat.

Unless it's one they hold via defection.

Yep, pretty much prime target, although they
may be able to recruit a ground team for a target seat.

But with feet on ground from others it will be so
hard to breakthrough anywhere.

Green have same problem, but did manage a seat
through careful targeting and hard work. I see
they are looking at putting in big effort in Bristol
constituency.