Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
xmoneyx
30 Apr 24 20:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 59,259 | Blogger: xmoneyx's blog
will tory voters do a no show instead of voting labour
Pause Switch to Standard View england local/mayor elections thurs
Show More
Loading...
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 1:03 PM BST
Durham

Big lead for Labour

Kim McGuinness (Labour) - 43,084
Jamie Driscoll (Independent) - 25,074
Guy Renner-Thompson (Conservative) - 11,627
Paul Donaghy (Reform) - 9,679
Aidan King (Lib Dem) - 3,907
Andrew Gray (Green) - 2,396
Report barstool May 3, 2024 1:11 PM BST
32% turnout in Blackpool.

People voting with feet, not pencils.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 1:16 PM BST
Fairly normal for a by election
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 1:16 PM BST
Jamie Driscol has had a lot of social media backing.

He's done well for an indy.
Report Lee Ho Fooks May 3, 2024 1:37 PM BST
BBC main news headline for last hour "Tory Ben Houchen wins Tees Valley despite grim results from Sunak".

The main BBC news headline has changed throughout the morning but I think that they will try to keep this as top headline for as long as they can.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 1:56 PM BST
Bbc had to switch lib dem and con on their graphics as
Lib dems have won more council seats.

Theyve also removed refuk as they have won 0
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 2:05 PM BST
who are 'RA' on the BBC graphics?
Report Charlie May 3, 2024 2:08 PM BST
Reform UK.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 2:17 PM BST

They've also removed refuk as they have won 0


RA (Reform UK) have won 14 council seats... so far.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:18 PM BST
Ratepayers alliance/association always had /have a few councillors
and contest seats in a semi independent type manner.
Report Charlie May 3, 2024 2:19 PM BST
Residents' Association
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:22 PM BST
Residents' Association
Councils
Total
0
Councils
Change
0
Councillors
Total
14
Councillors Change
+1

Reform UK
Councils
Total
0
Councils
Change
0
Councillors
Total
0
Councillors Change
0
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 2:22 PM BST
Correction to my previous post. (Thanks YHTL & Charlie)

Correction to my previous post. (Thanks YHTL & Charlie)

RA (Residents Association) have won 14 council seats... so far.[/qote]

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:26 PM BST
No probs, I've always known them as ratepayers alliance
but whatever name they go under its usually to bring folks
together away from bigger parties and gain cross
political alliances to help locals.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:29 PM BST
Lots of indies don't bother and just stand as independent.

Times change and RA seem to be seen as a bit old fashioned
compared to independent.

Locals will likely do a bit of research to see
what label might improve chances of beating big party.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 2:31 PM BST
Complete result North East Mayoral

Kim McGuinness (LAB) – 185,051 (41.3%)

Jamie Driscoll (IND) – 126,652 (28.2%)

Guy Renner-Thompson (CON) – 52,446

North East Mayoral Election Paul Donaghy (REF) – 41,147

Aidan King (LD) – 25,485

Andrew Gray (G) – 17,631
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 2:31 PM BST
I thought that would have been closer.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:37 PM BST
McGuiness was crime commissioner v Driscol who
was north tyneside mayor. Starmer v corbyn...?

Thought it was a shoo in... Couldn't find betting..
Report Charlie May 3, 2024 2:38 PM BST
yak, please don't use a dash infront of your numbers I read it as minus (a colon may be better) Grin
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:38 PM BST
McGuiness has been very well presented, and
looks good/sounds good on local tv.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 2:40 PM BST

May 3, 2024 -- 2:37PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


McGuiness was crime commissioner v Driscol whowas north tyneside mayor. Starmer v corbyn...?Thought it was a shoo in... Couldn't find betting..


Smarkets had all mayoral elections betting.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:41 PM BST
North Yorkshire (& York) mayoralty, result:

LAB: 35.1%
CON: 27.3%
LDEM: 16.2%
GRN: 8.0%

New entity, but:
Labour notional GAIN from Conservative.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:42 PM BST
What price was she?

Can't have been bigger than 1.15/1.20 surely?
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 2:44 PM BST

May 3, 2024 -- 2:42PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


What price was she?Can't have been bigger than 1.15/1.20 surely?


1.93 was the highest priced matched that I can see. She was trading around 1.4 last night.

Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 2:45 PM BST
Billy Mountains were 1.36 until 9pm last night.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 2:51 PM BST
Khans on the drift in London, out to 1.10--1.11 today

was 1.03 yesterday morning.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 2:58 PM BST
Wow, 1.4 seems huge, deffo missed out there.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 3:00 PM BST

May 3, 2024 -- 2:51PM, Escapee wrote:


Khans on the drift in London, out to 1.10--1.11 todaywas 1.03 yesterday morning.


That just has to be a free 10% return on your investment in a day.

Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 3:03 PM BST
1.12/1.14 now. Hall is 8.2/8.4. Those prices seem nuts.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 3:05 PM BST
Hall got a Ferrari?

LaughLaugh
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 3:07 PM BST
1.12--1.13 now

Khans had a charisma by-pass. His TV appearances are full of monotone deflection, abstract dross and faux claims about what he's done and going to do.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 3:13 PM BST
England council results
58 of 107 councils.


LAB 576 (+97)
CON 203(-231)
LD 195 (+33)
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 3:17 PM BST
For Khan not to win, would be the biggest polling miss in UK history.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 3:27 PM BST
Probably our mischievous right wing friends manipulating
the market to create headline chat and deflect from dreadful
Tory results today.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 3:40 PM BST

For Khan not to win, would be the biggest polling miss in UK history.


Polls are likely going to be unsure how to factor in the new voter ID bias, unless they specifically ask "If you are under 60, do you have Driving Licence or Passport, or have you applied for Voter ID"?

Report Escapee May 3, 2024 3:43 PM BST
1.2 traded on khan, 5.2 on Hall.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 3:46 PM BST
Polls are likely going to be unsure how to factor in the new voter ID bias, unless they specifically ask "If you are under 60, do you have Driving Licence or Passport, or have you applied for Voter ID"?

What percentage of the voters will it affect and why would it favour one party over another?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 3:53 PM BST
Voter ID in London shouldn't be significantly
different to elsewhere. And postal votes are available anyway.

Rumours started on twitter and were initially discounted.

If khans vote has gone elsewhere, it won't go to Hall,
you'd expect the without Khan and hall market to
show a bit more, surely.
Report jollyswagman May 3, 2024 3:56 PM BST
i live in an outer london borough and had to queue to vote yesterday. my guess is that, sadly, most werent voting for binface but were voting for hall in order to get khan out.

imo, the equation is quite simple, are there enough people in the outer boroughs voting for hall in order to overcome khan's advantage in the inner city and will his core vote be motivated to turn up? the change in prices suggests some think the answer is yes.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 3:57 PM BST
What percentage of the voters will it affect
I dunno what percent it affects. But it's a significant extra hoop to jump through if you are under 60yo as the only ID accepted is Passport or Driving License, or pre applied for Voter ID.


and why would it favour one party over another?
Inner Londoners are far less likely to have a drivers license than outer Londoners,
It may be that Inner Londoners are more likely to have a passport because of immigrant distribution, it may not.

Given that outer london tends to vote blue, inner london Red, I am guessing (as is anyone) that there may be less voters in Innner london than had there been no Voter ID requirement, and that will affect different parties differently.
Report jollyswagman May 3, 2024 3:59 PM BST
whatever happens the tories really should have picked a better candidate than hall.
Report pandora1963 May 3, 2024 4:00 PM BST
If Corbyn ran he would beat them both
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 4:01 PM BST

May 3, 2024 -- 3:57PM, Escapee wrote:


What percentage of the voters will it affect I dunno what percent it affects. But it's a significant extra hoop to jump through if you are under 60yo as the only ID accepted is Passport or Driving License, or pre applied for Voter ID.and why would it favour one party over another?Inner Londoners are far less likely to have a drivers license than outer Londoners,It may be that Inner Londoners are more likely to have a passport because of immigrant distribution, it may not.Given that outer london tends to vote blue, inner london Red, I am guessing (as is anyone) that there may be less voters in Innner london than had there been no Voter ID requirement, and that will affect different parties differently.


I can virtually guarantee that no more than two percent of possible voters will not be able to vote and that they will be supporters of various parties.

Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 4:04 PM BST
And here is an example...

On voter ID, we had to send away about 12 people at our station (out of 470 odd) and all but 2 came back later.

2 people used the voter authority certificates.

This was in West Norwood, Lambeth.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 4:13 PM BST
It's not called "leafy west norwood" for nothing.

I can virtually guarantee that no more than two percent of possible voters will not be able to vote and that they will be supporters of various parties.


I respect your overall political betting analysis and opinions, but I'm a doubter of your opinion and confidence on this particular occasion.

G'luck

1.3 matched on khan about 1 minute ago.

Report Escapee May 3, 2024 4:23 PM BST
I've been matched on khan at 1.14 & 1.22 (1.18 avg)

it's volatile, currently 1.20-21
Report jollyswagman May 3, 2024 4:41 PM BST
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1786419923025088821

the suggestion is that turnout is down in both tory and labour areas.


i think something similar happened in the betting last time around when shaun bailey was the tory candidate.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 4:48 PM BST
That tweet is suggesting a 4% drop in turn out. If so, 2% due to voter ID is a probably reasonable call Yak Hunt, I thought it might be higher.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 5:07 PM BST
Having a look on LondonElects.com and trying to compare 2021 turnout with 2024 turnout

Lambeth & Southwark Turnout
2021 2024
41% 34%
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 5:14 PM BST
Barnet & Camden 39.59%
City & East 31.17%
Ealing & Hillingdon 42.98%
Greenwich & Lewisham 40.33%
Lambeth & Southwark 33.96%
Merton & Wandsworth 45.99%
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 5:18 PM BST
Ok, a lower turnout traditionally helps the tories. However, on some recent polls Hall is a clear 20% behind. How can she make up that sort of gap? Folks that have already used their postal vote will be included in those polls so those votes aren't going to change. Regarding voting id, if any party was going to be significantly affected (I don't believe that they will), it will be the tories as their voters are more elderly.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 5:38 PM BST

if any party was going to be significantly affected (I don't believe that they will), it will be the tories as their voters are more elderly.


I disagree, there are 22 forms of ID acceptable, only 2 of them are available to most under 60's
Pretty much everyone over 60 in london has a free bus pass, which is acceptable photo ID.
Voter ID hindrance is almost non existent for over 60's in London.

Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 5:40 PM BST
Fair point but not everyone claims their bus pass.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 6:11 PM BST
The betting market is doing some crazy things!
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 6:33 PM BST
i had a back at 1.3 that got matched about 20 minutes ago, it traded as high as 1.4 in the spike.
currently 1.28--29
wild stuff.

anyone know what the high street bookies odds are? are they as volatile as on here?
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 6:36 PM BST
I don't think any high street or online bookies are betting on it now, only exchanges. Btw, the Lambeth turnout has been altered to 39%.
Report Escapee May 3, 2024 6:42 PM BST

Lambeth turnout has been altered to 39%.


good programmers are hard to find.Laugh

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 3, 2024 6:59 PM BST
Are bookies taking bets?

Why wouldn't they do this before polls closed?

Surely more benefit.
Report yak hunt May 3, 2024 7:10 PM BST
There were plenty of bookies betting on it till about 9pm last night. Once polls closed, only exchanges trading.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 12:39 PM BST
Any 1.3 left?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 12:58 PM BST
England council results
103 of 107 councils.Counting under way.

Number of councillors
LAB 1,051 (+177)
LDEM 508 (+101)
CON 501 (-456)
IND 225 (+93)
GRN 171 (+68)
RA 48 (+11)
REFUK 0 (NC)
Report Escapee May 4, 2024 1:11 PM BST
Khan went 0--1.01 about half an hour a go. Hall is 190--250

Count Binface got my vote, the only serious option for a meaningless protest vote.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 1:18 PM BST
I would have voted Binface too.

If it was close between Khan and Hall I would
have voted Khan.

Obviously I can't vote in Landen elections
Report impossible123 May 4, 2024 2:42 PM BST
Mr Khan has polled 45.1%; Ms Hall 31.1%.
Report pandora1963 May 4, 2024 2:55 PM BST
Tommy Robinson SEETHING
Report lfc1971 May 4, 2024 3:02 PM BST
If you change the religion and ethnicity of a place expect the vote accordingly
to go along religious and ethnic lines ,, it’s demographics and the same the world over
Report yak hunt May 4, 2024 3:41 PM BST
West Midlands mayoral looks to be very close indeed.
Report Escapee May 4, 2024 3:48 PM BST

West Midlands mayoral looks to be very close indeed.


1.09-1.16 labour, The (relatively small) money says conservative lose it

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 3:53 PM BST
Laura kuensberg part of the disinformation around
London mayor rumours last night

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 4:56 PM BST
Labour's Sadiq Khan has secured a historic third term as London mayor, seeing off Tory challenger Susan Hall.

It followed "wild rumours" the incumbent could have suffered a shock defeat, although both sides subsequently said they believed Mr Khan would win.

He received just over 1,088,000 votes (43.7%) to be re-elected, a majority of some 275,000 over Ms Hall, who secured just under 812,000 votes (32.6%)






32.6%, shakes heed, unbelievable what folk vote for.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 4:57 PM BST
Sky...


Street's team asking for recount in West Midlands - Labour sources
Amid a very tight mayoral race in the West Midlands, Labour sources have told Sky News the Conservative incumbent Andy Street's team is asking for a recount.

Those same Labour sources have suggested the scale of Labour's win in Birmingham - which has by far the biggest number of voters - means a recount will not make any difference at all.

Our political editor Beth Rigby warns the race is still too close to call, with an independent candidate having also performed well.

But our lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge notes: "You don't tend to ask for a recount if you're happy with the way the results have gone".
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 5:03 PM BST
A full recount has been ordered in the Coventry borough in the West Midlands, where the mayoral race is currently "too close to call".

The recount is expected to take a couple of hours.

A short time ago, Labour sources told Sky News a recount was requested by Conservative incumbent Andy Street's team.
Report yak hunt May 4, 2024 5:57 PM BST
Allegedly, after the tories asked for a full bundle count, a discrepancy of some sort was discovered at the Coventry count. Hence, a full recount only there, at the moment that is.
Report cryoftruth May 4, 2024 7:31 PM BST
Looks like the Tories have lost around 500 councillors.

Good.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 7:45 PM BST
Bad news is that they retained 500.

500 too many, imo.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 7:45 PM BST
Cheers yak.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 7:47 PM BST
Tim Farron

Lib Dems have beaten the Tories into 3rd across the country. Utterly amazing. This is surely the biggest story of this election.  Currently waiting for certain commentators to stop waffling on about those losers at Reform and update their hot takes…
Report irishone May 4, 2024 7:54 PM BST
Report Escapee May 4, 2024 7:56 PM BST
There's been some great action on the Midland mayor market over the last hour

Labour have been getting backed around 1.15 I've been getting £££ lays matched on conservatives  from 3.0 to 4.0 Laugh
The markets been going 120% overround on the pink sideCrazy

party looks to be over now as there's £5,000 wanting to back labour at 1.01Cool
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 8:16 PM BST
Nice work escapee.

Listening to proper pollster and good journalists
has proven to be a real monetspinner
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 8:17 PM BST
Little turd Sunak reversing his helicopter
back into garage...
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 8:24 PM BST
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1786435290720067795?s=19

..
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 8:26 PM BST
Sky's political editor Beth Rigby says her sources have told her they think Labour has taken the West Midlands mayoralty by just over a thousand votes.

We have been reporting all afternoon the race was going down to the wire, with one recount ordered in Coventry.
Report Escapee May 4, 2024 8:39 PM BST
BBC reported mid afternoon that Conservative guy asked for a 'Bundle' check. I.E. a check that none of the counted bundles of votes for each candidate was in the wrong pile.
He said it indicated conservative had lost by a couple of thousand.

During that check, BBC reported that a 'Discrepancy' (Dunno what) had been found in the Coventry votes, so a full recount of that district was started.

after a couple of hours it occurred to me that the bundle check = couple of thousand was the key, a recount rarely finds a couple of thousand votes, so I piled in laying any backs on Conservatives at prices people seemed to be happy to back at.

It ain't official yet, fingers crossed
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 8:45 PM BST
Well if you were worried you could lay at 1.01
or back streeter at 160, currently.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 8:54 PM BST
A Conservative source in the Midlands, with good knowledge of the campaign, tells me: "It was never going to end well, as the campaign was a mess.

"Literature arriving late, activists only turning up for photos. Too much hubris and arrogance, assuming we'd win 'because it's Andy'.

"Good experienced people not consulted, brought in or engaged. I'm gutted, the West Midlands is screwed."
Report Escapee May 4, 2024 9:11 PM BST
it's the smallest nuggets of information that can bring the bigger wins.


"He said it indicated conservative had lost by a couple of thousand."


Thankyou Mr BBC Reporter
Report yak hunt May 4, 2024 9:36 PM BST
Two points regarding the mayoral elections...

1/ There were some spectacular polling misses, particularly of minor candidates, by newer polling companies. Redfield and Wilton for example polled the West Midlands twice, the first time getting 7% for the LibDem candidate, the second time his share had increased to 8% they reckoned. He got 2%. YouGov had him spot on at 2%.

2/ The betting after the ridiculous ramping of Susan Hall yesterday was ludicrous and if folks fell for it and lost money, well, I'm sorry, but the chances of Khan losing, according to established and reliable pollsters was virtually zero.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 9:58 PM BST
When bbc Laura is involved and she's a known
name on official tory spin lists you have to wonder
if the tories just sank to new depths.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 4, 2024 10:06 PM BST
NEW: England Council Results 2024

LAB: 1,140 (+185)
LDM: 521 (+104)
CON: 513 (-473)
IND: 228 (+93)
GRN: 181 (+74)
RA: 48 (+11)
WPB: 4 (+4)
RFM: 2 (+2)

Changes w/ seats in 2021
106/107 councils declared
Final council, Salford, tomorrow

(Salford has 1/3 of seats up, but only 8 tories
out of 60 seats anyway. So they are not going
to hit the 500)
Report A_T May 4, 2024 10:41 PM BST
When bbc Laura is involved and she's a known
name on official tory spin lists you have to wonder
if the tories just sank to new depths.


mischief is now the tory strategy
Report yak hunt May 5, 2024 4:08 PM BST
UK, England local elections, final results:

Councillors elected

LAB-S&D: 1,158 (+186)
LDEM-RE: 522 (+104)
CON~ECR: 515 (-474)
Ind-*: 227 (+92)
GPEW-G/EFA: 181 (+74)
RAs-*: 48 (+11)
WPB-*: 4 (new)
REFORM~NI: 2 (+2)
WEP-*: 1 (+1)

+/- vs. 2021 and 2022 elections
Report yak hunt May 5, 2024 4:16 PM BST
How on earth did Reform get 2 seats? Recount surely!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 5, 2024 6:28 PM BST
Britain elects forecast


NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other




Didn't model enough for greens, indies and other tic tac voting

Same error as being extrapolated by thrasher on sky predictions
for gen election...
Report yak hunt May 7, 2024 8:11 AM BST
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 31.8%
Lib Dem: 13.1%
Ind/Other: 7.0%
Green: 4.8%
Ref: 1.6%
Plaid: 0.8%
Report yak hunt May 7, 2024 3:16 PM BST
So 1.6% for Reform in their best targeted seats at the elections. Never mind, I am sure they will get a much higher percentage of votes when Scotland and Northern Ireland are included in a General electionLaugh
Report yak hunt May 7, 2024 3:17 PM BST
Seriously, I cannot see them getting into double figures and there are markets out there, including on here, with 20% plus being an option. That should be 1000.0 and more if it was allowed.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 7, 2024 5:07 PM BST
Blackpool

Labour     Chris Webb     10,825     58.9    
    Conservative     David Jones     3,218     17.5    
    Reform UK     Mark Butcher     3,101     16.9




It'll get squeezed in places, and in others they
will be a protest vote. Leeanderthal might get
close to winning a seat.

Tice continues to pump millions in to have his say.
Report yak hunt May 7, 2024 5:15 PM BST
That Blackpool by election was a perfect opportunity for Reform. They had everything in their favour yet only managed 16.9%. If that's the best they can do, they won't win a single seat.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 7, 2024 5:35 PM BST
Unless it's one they hold via defection.

Yep, pretty much prime target, although they
may be able to recruit a ground team for a target seat.

But with feet on ground from others it will be so
hard to breakthrough anywhere.

Green have same problem, but did manage a seat
through careful targeting and hard work. I see
they are looking at putting in big effort in Bristol
constituency.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com