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Cider
12 Sep 23 20:06
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Date Joined: 29 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 58,289 | Blogger: Cider's blog
Nigel Farage has just called that Biden won't be the Dem nominee for POTUS 24.


I'm not very knowledgeable about US politics, but Farage is. And is very much tapped in to what goes on out there. He is stating that the party is now embarrassed by him, and they have had enough.


He can hardly talk or walk anyway, so even if Nigel had not made this call, the price looks incredibly tight to me (trading spread 1.53-1.55 at time of posting).

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Replies: 39
By:
brain dead jockeys
When: 12 Sep 23 20:11
i agree. he will be worse in 12 mths time. big time discussions must be taking place in the dem party about telling joe he wont be running. jill be the one to break it to him. there is no way this guy can be president in 3 years time. gavin newsome will be the candidate in 2024.
By:
casemoney
When: 12 Sep 23 20:11
We have a man Who could be in Prison, Joint favourite with silly bollix Laugh What a state US politics are in
By:
Cider
When: 12 Sep 23 20:20
Even the practical element of campaigning and debating, he simply won't be able to do it. Basement II seems inconceivable. But the market suggests otherwise currently. I'm happy to roll with what we can actually see, along with Farage's informed prediction.
By:
flat16
When: 12 Sep 23 20:35
The catastrophe of the rushed bodged withdrawal in Afghanistan ,the Blinken abysmal negotiations with the Russians which meant Putin thought he was to be presented the Ukraine ,like he was Crimea and now 100,000 homeless economic migrants in NYC alone, with another 10000 arriving monthly.......
Demonstrates the folly of voting in ,a naive ,incompetent woke lefty dogooder.
Yet we are about to do the same.
By:
truehoncho
When: 12 Sep 23 20:43
So who will the democrat candidate be?
By:
Cider
When: 12 Sep 23 21:01
I'll have the field running for me on this play, it's Joe I want to oppose. I have heard other people speculate that the plot will be to sneak in Obama once it can't be reversed. Not sure if that is possible or plausible.
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 12 Sep 23 21:02
Farage is not well informed about US politics, he just repeats the propaganda of the right-wing within the GOP. Some of the uniformed nonsense on GB News and Talk TV about US politics is embarrassing to watch. He did not believe Biden could beat Trump last time.

If you want well informed debate from experts who do actually know what they are talking about then you have to watch the US news channels. However, Farage may well be right on this occasion but he is well behind the curve, many have been saying this for ages.

Why do you think Biden has been such a big price for so long when any other incumbent seeking re-election would be trading under 1.1 at this stage?
By:
Cider
When: 12 Sep 23 21:37
I don't feel that is true actually, obviously you don't actually watch GBN if you feel that he has only been repeating right wing Republican propaganda recently. But this thread is about Biden predominately and not Farage's own politics, so it's not really worth side tracking. His call has prompted me to enter the market.

The nomination would typically be a shoo in for an incumbent. So Sleepy's (in)capability is already being factored. The question is whether that is still being underestimated, I say yes and would make him odds against.
By:
lfc1971
When: 12 Sep 23 21:52
He hasn’t decided , or been persuaded not to run at this point

Because the dems are trying to find a way not to select Vice President Kamala Harris in his place

They probably don’t want her to run , but they’ve a dilemma
By:
lfc1971
When: 12 Sep 23 21:56
Identity politics ..
By:
casemoney
When: 12 Sep 23 21:56
The US House of Representatives will open an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden
The most senior Republican in the US House, Kevin McCarthy, says the inquiry will focus on "allegations of abuse of power, obstruction and corruption"
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 12 Sep 23 22:03
I don't feel that is true actually, obviously you don't actually watch GBN if you feel that he has only been repeating right wing Republican propaganda recently

Where did I say he has only been doing this recently? He has always done it because he is allied to the Trump wing within the GOP. He has been a Fox News contributor for many for years and was on LBC during the last election. His views are not objective.

I watch many hours of various news channels including GB News every day. I have at least 3 screens on at once all day.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 12 Sep 23 22:03
Oh entertaining

Another impeachment psyop to wet the appetite...
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Sep 23 22:10

Sep 12, 2023 -- 8:43PM, truehoncho wrote:


So who will the democrat candidate be?


Gavin Newsom most likely.

By:
tobermory
When: 12 Sep 23 22:17
I tend to agree with Jack that Farage is unlikely to have any special insight into the Democratic nomination process.

I did read an interesting piece a few weeks back though which quoted various GOP insiders; strategists, pollsters, people with links to donors (none of them were named)

The gist of it was that they were near certain that Biden would not be the candidate, but that he wil continue as the phoney official candidate perhaps as far as the Democratic Convention.

At that point, he will be prevailed upon to stand down and make way for Newsom.

Have to ask what do the these people know about the rival party, but there likely is an element of interaction among professional politicos, that cuts across party lines.

So perhaps they really do have an inkling of what Democrat strategists/donors are saying behind the scenes.
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Sep 23 22:25
any other incumbent seeking re-election would be trading under 1.1 at this stage

I don't agree with that.

The standard price for an incumbent during his first term would be in the range of 1.5 - 2.3

I don't think Obama was ever much below 1.4 during his first 3 years and even he might have hit Evens during that time.

And of course he had won decisively in 2008, while all other winners this century were in photo finishes.

Biden could never have been so low as 2.3 in the first 3 years because of his age.
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 12 Sep 23 22:31
There is now way he can continue to do the job until the age of 86 without becoming a complete laughing stock around the world, many will say he already is. One thing that does concern me is that maybe he is planning to hang on as he is confident that he can beat Trump and will then resign a year later to make way for Harris and take credit for being responsible for the first female president who also happens to be a woman of colour as an added bonus.
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 12 Sep 23 22:32
I'm talking about the nomination market.
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Sep 23 22:34
Ah, OK Jack, yes of course 1.10 woud be max price
By:
lfc1971
When: 12 Sep 23 22:34
Yes they don’t want her to run .. in case she isn’t popular

But don’t want to be honest about it .. the dems might pull a scam like that
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 12 Sep 23 22:36
1.1 would be huge value if it was Obama at this stage.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 12 Sep 23 22:57
To anyone thinking of laying joe for the nom, might I suggest the better value option of laying kamala for the VEEP nom instead? There`s only two scenarios; either joe is outed, or he hangs on and gets nommed. If he`s gone, so is she, as there isn`t one other American, (let alone a candidate!), who`d pick her again. But if he stays, there`s the very real (maybe 20-30%?) possibility that he takes his opportunity to be rid of her, pick another VEEP. Which means her lay price for VEEP, (1.53), should always be higher than joe`s lay price for the nom, (1.57), perhaps by that 20-30%, but it isn`t, it`s lower. So, two cracks at the cherry, for a cheaper price
By:
blank
When: 13 Sep 23 07:05
2/3rds of democrat voters don't want him to run again, that's staggering. I guess most likely window if he drops out will be Nov-Jan. Pritzker come in a bit now but he is a dark horse.
By:
lfc1971
When: 13 Sep 23 08:19
House speaker Kevin McCarthy calls
a meeting on Thursday of top republicans
to plan a vote on impeaching Joe Biden
By:
casemoney
When: 13 Sep 23 13:16
yes interesting Emails and Phone recordings have come to Light ,The Old sniffer might be snuffed out Grin
By:
casemoney
When: 13 Sep 23 16:29
Shirley Obumas Husband is the Call for the Dems ?
By:
lfc1971
When: 13 Sep 23 16:36
sleepy Joe is ok .. quite like him and his diffident demeanour
But I don’t like those who tend to vote for him
By:
Cider
When: 14 Sep 23 19:21
hunter indicted, apparently. don't suppose it's too great for sleepy. even when he wakes up to find out.
By:
Shrewd_dude
When: 14 Sep 23 19:26
He will probably be defending his sons dealing in Iraq when he wakes up from his child sniffing induced stupor.
By:
brain dead jockeys
When: 14 Sep 23 22:21
i dont think people go to jail for this. all a big hoopla about nothing.
By:
edy
When: 14 Sep 23 23:23
At least the Republicans, and especially MAGAs, are finally seeing sense and are transforming into big fans of having certain checks in place in regards to the right to bear arms.

It's quite a brilliant plot by the Bidens to sacrifice Hunter with the lone purpose of stringing the MAGAs along like that. And those fools don't even realize it.
By:
Shrewd_dude
When: 14 Sep 23 23:39
Has anyone done a poll yet who Americans would trust more with a gun between a crack cocaine filled Hunter or a sleepy creepy Joe?
By:
casemoney
When: 15 Sep 23 00:40
Burisma Holdings Limited , Hunter was doing so much Gear Joe had to get another way to Fund him Grin No wonder he can't get money sent to the Comedian Quick enough .
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 24 18:22
Suspect Farage called this right. Again.
By:
Ronaldmcdonald
When: 10 Jul 24 18:26
There are a lot of MAGAs who are on Hunter's side. It was a clear violation of his 2a rights.
By:
irishone
When: 11 Jul 24 06:55
an utter disgrace
By:
A_T
When: 11 Jul 24 12:04
joe's a fighter!
By:
irishone
When: 11 Jul 24 17:34
sleepy joe
time to go
By:
dambuster
When: 13 Jul 24 12:07
He claimed his deputy was Trump Cry and he welcomed to the stage the brave president of Ukraine 'President Putin'Crazy
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