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politicspunter
13 May 22 15:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 40,431 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198663388
.

Market here.
Pause Switch to Standard View Tiverton and Honiton by election
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Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 1:04 PM BST
https://news.smarkets.com/politics/are-the-betting-markets-a-good-guide-to-by-election-results/
.
Report LoyalHoncho June 20, 2022 2:21 PM BST
To my uneducated eye a 14% decrease in Tory support, with no surge in Labour support, would be a win/bl**dy good result for them.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 4:52 PM BST
The only party punters are backing is the tories and heavily. Now being cut to 3.5 across the board.
Report Escapee June 20, 2022 5:16 PM BST
uncertainty starting to creep in, could be volatile on the day



UK - By-Elections -- Tiverton and Honiton By-Election        
4 Runners            £209,719 Matched   



              101.1%   99.7%             
Liberal Democrats    1.34 1.35 1.36   1.37   1.38   1.39   £182,428
        £1 £541 £21     £10 £302 £2  
Conservatives    3.55 3.6 3.65   3.75   3.8   3.9   £27,206
        £2 £53 £83     £12 £299 £28  
Labour    400 600 1000   -   -   -   £80
        £2 £4 £21              
Greens    26 120 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £10 £2 £38              
Report Escapee June 20, 2022 6:11 PM BST
BBC news just said NHS worker are getting (knowledge of) their pay rise this week.

1.01 it will be announced after the by-elections
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 20, 2022 6:12 PM BST
Tiverton & Honiton By-Election Voting Intention ( LD internal Polling ):

CON: 45% (-15)
LDM: 45% (+30)

~ 6,000 voters asked.
Changes with GE2019.




...
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 6:35 PM BST
Coin toss?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 20, 2022 6:42 PM BST
Propaganda, imo.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 7:26 PM BST
Smarkets News & Politics
@SmarketsPol
·
1h
Our market (which isn't influenced by attempts to increase turnout) puts the Conservatives around 10 points lower at 35%.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 7:27 PM BST
If Smarkets reckon tories are on 35%, does that mean they think the LibDems are on 55%? That seems a huge figure.
Report Escapee June 20, 2022 7:32 PM BST
surely they are saying 35% chance of winning, not 35% of votes
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 7:52 PM BST

Jun 20, 2022 -- 7:32PM, Escapee wrote:


surely they are saying 35% chance of winning, not 35% of votes


It's 35% they reckon for Conservative vote share.

Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 8:01 PM BST
In the North Shropshire election, which is very similar to here, the tory vote share dropped from 62.7% to 31.6%. Here, they start off with 60.2%. Some things that may help them...
1/ They have chosen a local candidate, not one parachuted in from Birmingham who knew nothing of the constituency. That has to be worth 2-3%.
2/ Although the former incumbent was foolish, he was well liked and he wasn't corrupt as was the case elsewhere. Let's call that another 2%.
3/ The tories are throwing the kitchen sink at their campaign which they didn't do previously. That could be worth up to 5%.

So you could easily see the tories outperforming their North Shropshire return by say 10%. That takes them to around 40%.
Report morpteh mackem June 20, 2022 8:23 PM BST

Jun 20, 2022 -- 8:01PM, politicspunter wrote:


In the North Shropshire election, which is very similar to here, the tory vote share dropped from 62.7% to 31.6%. Here, they start off with 60.2%. Some things that may help them...1/ They have chosen a local candidate, not one parachuted in from Birmingham who knew nothing of the constituency. That has to be worth 2-3%.2/ Although the former incumbent was foolish, he was well liked and he wasn't corrupt as was the case elsewhere. Let's call that another 2%.3/ The tories are throwing the kitchen sink at their campaign which they didn't do previously. That could be worth up to 5%.So you could easily see the tories outperforming their North Shropshire return by say 10%. That takes them to around 40%.


have you heard the torry  candidate ? i would suggest she's not worth 2-3% , rather minus that amount.

Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 8:32 PM BST
Well, in North Shropshire, one of the main LibDem campaign thrusts was that the tory candidate was a Birmingham lawyer who had no idea about the constituency. He didn't live there and kept getting the towns he was canvassing in mixed up. This time they have gone for someone born and bred in the constituency, a former head teacher, a rather nice looking lady (women have an incredible recent success rate in by elections). Considering their LibDem candidate doesn't originally come from the constituency I am not sure what their attack line on her would be?
Report morpteh mackem June 20, 2022 8:35 PM BST

Jun 20, 2022 -- 8:32PM, politicspunter wrote:


Well, in North Shropshire, one of the main LibDem campaign thrusts was that the tory candidate was a Birmingham lawyer who had no idea about the constituency. He didn't live there and kept getting the towns he was canvassing in mixed up. This time they have gone for someone born and bred in the constituency, a former head teacher, a rather nice looking lady (women have an incredible recent success rate in by elections). Considering their LibDem candidate doesn't originally come from the constituency I am not sure what their attack line on her would be?


bit i saw on twitter at q and a other night, she seemed very unpopular with the audience. Her style was dreadful too.

Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 8:38 PM BST
Ok, but did you see the huge poster outside the debate hall? It wasn't exactly a tory supporting audience environment.
Report morpteh mackem June 20, 2022 8:44 PM BST

Jun 20, 2022 -- 8:38PM, politicspunter wrote:


Ok, but did you see the huge poster outside the debate hall? It wasn't exactly a tory supporting audience environment.


true

Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 9:54 PM BST
In Chesham and Amersham the Labour vote went from 12.8% to 1.6%. In North Shropshire it went from 33.1% to 9.7%. Here, Labour polled 19.5% at the 2019 General election and the LibDems say they are due to get around 6% in the by election. That's pretty poor but looking at the previous two LibDem by election gains, could easily be on the cards.
So let's say that the LibDems are spot on and they have Labour plus others at 10% total, with themselves and the tories fighting out the 90% remainder. If, as Smarkets claim, the tories are on target for 35%, that would mean the LibDems polling 55%. Is that realistic? Perhaps the 45% apiece claim from the LibDems is correct?
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 9:55 PM BST
Correction. In North Shropshire the Labour vote went from 22.1% to 9.7%.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 10:43 PM BST
Tories now being cut again to 3.25 in places.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 11:15 PM BST
As usual, other exchanges and bookies are way ahead of Betfair in offering multiple markets for this event Sad
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 10:56 AM BST
Tories being cut again this morning 3.5-3.25-3.2-3.0.
Report sageform June 21, 2022 1:36 PM BST
Li Dems have won by elections for as long as I can remember which is 70 years. They rarely translate that into more seats in the subsequent General Election. At the moment "none of the above" or even a non-political candidate (if there is such a thing) would win both of the coming by elections. Half of the population won't vote for any of the existing parties. I doubt if more than a handful of the current MPs of all parties could make a profit from a small business and most of those would be Tories.
Report Foinavon June 21, 2022 2:10 PM BST
That's true sageform, the tories get away with a lot of nonsense because many people vote tactically to keep the Labour rissoles out. The LDs are now more looney than the Greens but serve as a protest vote against the tories mid-term. Few would want them in government again even as the second fiddle.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 2:18 PM BST
The LibDems burned most of their bridges when they reneged on their student fee promise when they went into coalition. Many will never forget that one.
Report Foinavon June 21, 2022 2:27 PM BST
Didn't do Clegg any harm though by the look of it.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 2:30 PM BST
Yes, he did ok for himself.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 2:52 PM BST
The outright market seems to have settled down after a pretty frantic couple of days. With the bookies, tories are 3.0-3.25, slightly more on the exchanges.
Report sageform June 21, 2022 4:47 PM BST
i thought that in many ways having a coalition moderated some of the Tory policies in a good way but as you say, the student loan thing sank them. They will only consider a coalition with Labour in future which is a shame.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 21, 2022 5:06 PM BST
If they rule out a tory coalition they wont
make enough headway in blue wall.

I do think they have a difficult path to tread
but next election should be a golden chance to
regain some ground if they get their message correct.


Davy has had limited airtime but has performed
quite well at times.

He needs to keep his head down until another open
goal appears, and surely it will.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 5:09 PM BST
It's a certainty with Boris as PM.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 8:00 PM BST
1.4 LibDem, 2.88 Tories in places now.
Report Escapee June 21, 2022 8:17 PM BST
I got some 1.33 yesterday and some 1.4 today but I think I might get 3.0 or 4.0 on Thursday eveningCrazy



UK - By-Elections -- Tiverton and Honiton By-Election        
4 Runners            £257,898 Matched   



              101%   99.5%             
Liberal Democrats    1.38 1.39 1.4   1.41   1.42   1.43   £221,338
        £2 £402 £458     £5 £118 £105  
Conservatives    3.3 3.35 3.4   3.5   3.7   4   £36,475
        £20 £50 £86     £361 £10 £3  
Labour    400 600 1000   -   -   -   £80
        £2 £4 £24              
Greens    26 120 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £10 £2 £39              
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 8:19 PM BST
Punters who have backed the tories at bigger prices will be hoping that it is Lib Dem canvassers money that is shortening their price so rapidly Laugh
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 9:07 PM BST
Looking round various bookmaker/exchange prices for tory vote share and 35% seems to be the favourite. I personally think it's likely to be higher than that because that would suggest the LibDems getting 55%.
Report politicspunter June 22, 2022 10:53 AM BST
The Daily Mail seem determined to finish Boris off by dedicating their front page to attacking Labour and driving them to vote for the LibDems.
Report Escapee June 22, 2022 2:52 PM BST
Boris off to Rwanda tomorrow, which could be taken as  a sign he knows he's lost this as he's taken foreign trips at every embarrassing moment this year (PartyGate, Sue Gray, FPN's, council election losses etc etc.)
Report politicspunter June 22, 2022 3:00 PM BST
Are lawyers going to appeal to try and stop him being deported?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 22, 2022 7:35 PM BST
Tim nice but dim farron


Out canvassing in sunny Devon. Just had a lovely chat with Nick Sleeman, manager of the Honiton Conservative Club… who is voting Liberal Democrat tomorrow! Thanks Nick.

https://t.co/qfKUzZMZrb
Report Cardinal Scott June 22, 2022 7:55 PM BST
There has to be a understanding between Lib Dems and Labour going forward inc standing down candidates, we simply must get rid of this government which is the most incompetent and corrupt government in British history at next general election.
Report politicspunter June 22, 2022 8:02 PM BST
In many local council elections in England and in recent Westminster by elections, one of those two effectively stood down to give the other a free run. They had a paper candidate but that was about it, as far as support from head office was concerned.
Report politicspunter June 22, 2022 8:27 PM BST
Smarkets News & Politics
@SmarketsPol
·
1h
@vincecable
: Tiverton & Honiton is extremely close from what I’m hearing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Tories held on.
Report Escapee June 23, 2022 1:28 AM BST
I went in with a fairly chunky lay of cons @3.5 earlier today (enough that I will wince if I lose or have a big smile if I win)

Hoping for some unwarranted volatility tomorrow evening giving an opportunity to get more on and the a libdems victory....

Anything can happen


UK - By-Elections -- Tiverton and Honiton By-Election        
4 Runners            £362,798 Matched   



              101.9%   98.4%             
Liberal Democrats    1.28 1.3 1.31   1.34   1.36   1.4   £301,026
        £25 £325 £10     £750 £487 £450  
Conservatives    3.75 3.9 3.95   4.2   4.3   4.5   £61,677
        £8 £100 £10     £2 £115 £38  
Labour    400 600 1000   -   -   -   £90
        £2 £4 £39              
Greens    26 120 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £10 £2 £63              
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 7:10 AM BST
Anything has happened already. Prices all over the shop and at one stage this morning one exchange was a full point more than the other in the winner market.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 23, 2022 8:33 AM BST
I expected to wake up to a right wing money
Tory price crash...

Seems they may not be as well coordinated as they
might have been.

Could be plenty of ramping as the votes are counted.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 11:11 AM BST
It's a certaintyLaugh
Report Escapee June 23, 2022 11:39 AM BST
seems to be a news blackout on the BBC, not a mention of todays 2 by-elections.

I s'pose they'd have to also mention why there are 2 by-elections

"Wakefield is having a by-election because the Tory MP raped a 15 year old boy"

"Tiverton  is having a by-election because the Tory MP was caught watching p0rn in Parliament"
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 12:05 PM BST
No news outlet is allowed to broadcast any info on election day.
Report LoyalHoncho June 23, 2022 3:42 PM BST
pp your knowledge of the election process etc; never fails to amaze ( or inform ) me.  Love
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 5:11 PM BST
If I could tell you who was going to win, that would be nicer Laugh
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 5:11 PM BST
If I could tell you who was going to win, that would be nicer Laugh
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 8:17 PM BST
Tory price drifting badly.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 23, 2022 8:28 PM BST
Tory double out to 600/1
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 8:58 PM BST
Huge amount of money being piled onto LibDems as tory price heads towards 6.0 and up.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 9:06 PM BST
Star sports saying they have taken a £100K bet on the LibDems at 1.4.
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:11 PM BST
i hadnt gone on this market at all, but for the final hour before polls closed stuck 100 tory back at 10.5, and 500 ld lay at 1.15
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:15 PM BST
not expecting to be matched, but thats been the way of today, was on the way for a drink with a girl, i messaged her when i was on my way and she had forgotten we were meeting and was not even in the city Laugh
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 9:19 PM BST

Jun 23, 2022 -- 9:11PM, keyboard_line wrote:


i hadnt gone on this market at all, but for the final hour before polls closed stuck 100 tory back at 10.5, and 500 ld lay at 1.15


Bookies normally shut up shop at 10pm when polls close but exchanges continue market until official result. Can be extremely volatile and isn't for those of a nervous disposition Grin

Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:21 PM BST
Yeah, dont think i'm gonna try and play the swings that may or may not come
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:24 PM BST
I mean, i think, and hope to be fair, that the tories lose, but im not sure if the anger for them is starting to wane slightly
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 9:28 PM BST
The punter that has stuck the £100K on the LibDems must be super confident at that price. May be someone directly connected with the campaign who has access to canvass info.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 9:35 PM BST
Tom Larkin
@TomLarkinSky
·
46m
Tiverton bound with
@SamCoatesSky
for the big by-election - can the Lib Dems overturn a 24k vote majority? All the drama live on Sky in a special show from midnight to morning
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:39 PM BST
i hadnt heard of star sports, a luxury bookmaker! Big bet to get any bookie outwith exchanges to take, maybe thats why exchange price has gone from 1.4 to 1.2ish today
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 9:42 PM BST
Well known in racing and other sports for taking very large bets.
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:45 PM BST
ok, might get in touch with them once ive finished saving up for my yacht Wink
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 9:51 PM BST
so whats the winning score here 15k ?
Report Escapee June 23, 2022 9:53 PM BST
"star sports" is that Star Lizard (Tony Bloom) ?

"Star sports saying they have taken a £100K bet on the LibDems at 1.4."


I wonder when that was struck, That was the cut off price I was looking for yesterday and barely managed a couple of k
Report frog1000 June 23, 2022 10:43 PM BST

Jun 23, 2022 -- 9:53PM, Escapee wrote:


"star sports" is that Star Lizard (Tony Bloom) ?"Star sports saying they have taken a £100K bet on the LibDems at 1.4."I wonder when that was struck, That was the cut off price I was looking for yesterday and barely managed a couple of k


Star Sports is run by Ben Keith.

Likely to take a big bet if you want 6/4 when it is 2/1 elsewhere.

Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 10:52 PM BST
1.4 was the best price of all bookies and exchanges.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 10:54 PM BST
Lol, tories were at almost 6.0 last time I looked not long ago, now they are 4.0.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 10:56 PM BST
3.8
Report frog1000 June 23, 2022 11:05 PM BST
1.4 freely avaiablle on Lib Dems
Report Escapee June 23, 2022 11:09 PM BST
I just got a matched on lay offers from 4.2 down to 3.15 on conservatives in about 2 minutes of volatility....


They're still biting, some at 3 just now



UK - By-Elections -- Tiverton and Honiton By-Election        
4 Runners            £442,724 Matched   



              102.4%   98.5%             
Liberal Democrats    1.37 1.38 1.39   1.4   1.41   1.42   £364,497
        £12 £245 £6     £10 £19 £104  
Conservatives    3 3.05 3.3   3.7   4   4.5   £78,132
        £97 £9 £50     £52 £2 £1  
Labour    600 620 1000   -   -   -   £90
        £4 £4 £26              
Greens    150 620 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £5 £4 £44              
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 11:10 PM BST
3.4 ish seems to have steadied for a minute or two.
Report keyboard_line June 23, 2022 11:18 PM BST
500 con lay posted @3.35 with current aim if matched to spam 450 back @3.6
Report Escapee June 23, 2022 11:36 PM BST
I'm guessing that's pretty much the end of all the speculative volatility, any big moves now are likely to come from smart money, so I've cancelled all my offers and am now left twiddle my thumbs until I win or lose.

Good luck with you bets, I hope I win


UK - By-Elections -- Tiverton and Honiton By-Election        
4 Runners            £449,121 Matched   



              102.1%   99.7%             
Liberal Democrats    1.23 1.25 1.28   1.29   1.3   1.31   £369,694
        £6 £38 £3     £6 £45 £55  
Conservatives    4 4.1 4.2   4.5   4.6   4.7   £79,331
        £50 £20 £5     £10 £17 £20  
Labour    600 620 1000   -   -   -   £92
        £4 £4 £33              
Greens    150 620 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £5 £4 £42              
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 11:41 PM BST
Any price tories, 7.8 being matched.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 11:51 PM BST
LibDems think they have got this by 2K+ votes according to twitter report.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 12:42 AM BST
BREAKING: In Tiverton & Honiton, “I’m hearing Lib Dems might WIN by a DOUBLE digit margin”, Sam Coates says - SKY
Report Escapee June 24, 2022 12:43 AM BST
I'll be sick on the cat if I lose this now


UK - By-Elections -- Tiverton and Honiton By-Election        
4 Runners            £493,398 Matched   



              102.1%   99.1%             
Liberal Democrats    - 1.01 1.02   1.04   1.05   1.06   £412,270
            £1,288 £325     £1,133 £1,332 £297  
Conservatives    8.6 18 26   34   40   70   £81,031
        £2 £10 £22     £3 £11 £2  
Labour    600 620 1000   -   -   -   £92
        £4 £4 £33              
Greens    150 620 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £5 £4 £42              
Report keyboard_line June 24, 2022 3:34 AM BST
I've gotta stop losin money on LD by election gains
Report Kelly June 24, 2022 4:16 AM BST
Chickens coming home to roost .  Bye Bye Boris .
Report TheBetterBettor June 24, 2022 4:36 AM BST
Labour lost 10k votes from when Jeremy Corbyn was leader
Report LoyalHoncho June 24, 2022 5:38 AM BST
People keep saying Bye Bye to this buffoon.  Why I don't know.  He can't be sacked and he is simply unable to admit that he is a failure and thus resign.  He;ll have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of Downing Street. I doubt if he'll even think about resigning and these yellow bellied backbenchers don;t have it in them to rally and dump him.
It is going to be good watching as he and his party go slowly but inexorably down the tubes.
Report A_T June 24, 2022 7:11 AM BST
yes Johnson will carry on. good Grin
Report blunder June 24, 2022 7:29 AM BST
I see or rather don't see anything from politics punter , who seemed to post about 30% of all the posts on this thread. If I was
as far out with my predictions as he/she was , I would probably keep quiet too.
Report politicspunter June 24, 2022 7:37 AM BST
Good win for the LibDems. Nearly all the Labour vote just transferred to the LibDems as in Chesham but less so in North Shropshire. Worrying times for tories as it's clear from both this result and Wakefield that an anti tory coalition can win almost anywhere.
Report politicspunter June 24, 2022 7:46 AM BST

Jun 24, 2022 -- 7:29AM, blunder wrote:


I see or rather don't see anything from politics punter , who seemed to post about 30% of all the posts on this thread. If I wasas far out with my predictions as he/she was , I would probably keep quiet too.


You will find my predictions up thread, just below yours.

Report lfc1971 June 24, 2022 7:52 AM BST
I feel that the tories have a decent chance of holding this seat
anyone else have a similar view ? Lol
Report morpteh mackem June 24, 2022 8:30 AM BST
the tory candidate was that bad they couldn't have been serious about holding seat. It's as though hand-picked worst one available.
Report Facts June 24, 2022 9:35 AM BST
Johnson still smirking !

The guy is toast.
Report mmmalushka June 24, 2022 10:00 AM BST
BOOZO must stay!!!!!  My Country needs you.  BOOZO must stay!!!!!!
Report Escapee June 24, 2022 10:05 AM BST
Wade in, Weighed in Cool

and the cat is safe.


Good game
Report Escapee June 24, 2022 10:16 AM BST

TheBetterBettor

24 Jun 22 04:36
Labour lost 10k votes from when Jeremy Corbyn was leader


Conservatives Lost 20k Votes from Boris Johnson being leader Laugh

Report lapsy pa June 24, 2022 10:17 AM BST
Well done winners.

Not sure Johnson is 'toast',he of course should be,lurching from one crisis to the next,he has divided the country,made people poorer,put the UKs reputation in the bin, a savage epic failure!

Solve the boat crossings is probably his only out.
Report frog1000 June 24, 2022 1:36 PM BST
Yes well done winners. Layed the Libdems averaging around 1.2 so feel I got some value but ultimately lost... you cannot eat value.

Johnson has a big tick internationally with his leadership in Ukraine. Domestically he messed up on Covid with the money printing and unnecessary laws which hurt the economy. But most countries are in the same boat with inflation.

He must remain leader unless/until a suitable replacement is found. Hunt currently favourite and he cannot be trusted not to realign with the EU and open the old Brexit wounds in the party.

Now the elections are over it is over to the Durham police to determine the future of the Labour Party.
Report peckerdunne June 24, 2022 1:56 PM BST
Boris slow cooking to eradication.


What a great day.
Report casemoney June 24, 2022 2:00 PM BST
Labour lost 10k votes from when Jeremy Corbyn was leader

Labour lost their Deposit ,what a fine opposition party they Are Laugh

Of course not much mention of that in the Media Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 2:32 PM BST
"The Tory candidate, who had endured a sometimes tricky campaign, locked herself in a room set aside for media interviews at the West Devon count, reportedly refusing to speak to the press."



Ha ha, where's the fridge when you need it!
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