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21 Feb 22 22:41
Date Joined: 26 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 41,328 | Blogger: peckerdunne's blog
Rivers of blood tomorrow.

Remember GDP has no correlation with stock prices(historically).

Don't exit the market just DCA

Do enter the market as low Caps will be massively undervalued.

Everything will be shorted like mad bar a few select stocks, use it to your advantage as it always turns.
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Report peckerdunne June 9, 2022 8:55 PM BST
The 16 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Tilray Brands Inc have a median target of 7.13, with a high estimate of 23.00 and a low estimate of 2.60. The median estimate represents a +93.35% increase from the last price of 3.69.
Report impossible123 June 10, 2022 9:11 AM BST
SLP anyone? The company is cash laden and buying back stocks from 135p downward; PGM prices have recovered, and forecast is upward over the next 12 months.
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 1:39 PM BST
moar inflation....
Report Cider June 10, 2022 1:51 PM BST
No schit Grin

all these supposed experts are repeatedly beaten with a dose of common sense and ignoring the preferred narrative.
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 2:18 PM BST
is this the big one cider iyo ?

i'm watching yen closely.. this keeps on and people will finally catch on to monster currency debasement and buy 'all the things'
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 2:20 PM BST
and if oil to $150+ = societal unrest
Report Cider June 10, 2022 2:32 PM BST
When rising rates become real, and property tops out, would be most likely is my shout.
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 2:58 PM BST
tempting short term buy this level s n p 3930
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 2:58 PM BST
tight stops

off on holiday

enjoy the carnage
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 5:26 PM BST
gold flying against a strong buck

very interesting

s n p nearing crucial support area
Report clouded leopard June 10, 2022 5:29 PM BST
bitcoin thru big support now

wowo heating up everywhere
Report Cider June 10, 2022 6:46 PM BST
There was a truth talker on bloomberg just now, Ron Lagnado. Not a name I'm familiar with, but he's on the ball. Of course, quite amusing as obvioulsy it's not the narrative Bloomberg wants and the hosts were getting pretty uncomfortable Grin
Report dustybin June 12, 2022 8:47 AM BST
Not even in recession yet and future stagflation to come, we not close to the bottom.
I’ve been out of the markets since November
FTSE still way too high, productivity isn’t falling

But just look at the crypto false prophesy folding in half then half again….
Hope all those YouTube millionaires aren’t balls deep
Report dustybin June 12, 2022 8:48 AM BST
*productivity IS falling
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 12:13 PM BST
Bitcoin price falls 23% in a week !
Report DancingBraveTheBest June 13, 2022 12:59 PM BST
The end is nighSad
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 13, 2022 1:08 PM BST
Buy petrol!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 13, 2022 1:10 PM BST
Pound tanking $1.22...

Interest rates forecast to rise again, not
boosting it, due to dire growth figures.
Report Cider June 13, 2022 1:10 PM BST
You can buy an oil etc, so as good as. I told everyone to get into commodities.
Report Cider June 13, 2022 1:13 PM BST
Report peckerdunne June 13, 2022 1:22 PM BST
I'm sure 'Stuff' is being impacted by the cost of fuel.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 2:07 PM BST
Crypto Lender Celsius Stops Withdrawals, Fuels Market Slump

This looks heavy stuff Shocked
Report Cider June 13, 2022 2:14 PM BST
Looking good for the bears. Timber!!!
Report Cider June 13, 2022 2:15 PM BST
risk is off everything
Report Cider June 13, 2022 2:30 PM BST
getting quite exciting, please let it be today Grin
Report peckerdunne June 13, 2022 2:50 PM BST
Sub 11
Report Cider June 13, 2022 2:54 PM BST
Bloomberg spin 'lack of buyers'

Report ImSoLuckyLucky! June 13, 2022 4:05 PM BST
Greggs have raised their prices again to £1.10 for a sausage roll
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 7:50 PM BST
Crypto markets reel as trading platforms suspend customer withdrawals

Crypto markets plummeted on Monday morning on news of troubles at another popular decentralized finance platform, dropping below $1 trillion in market capitalization for the first time since early 2021.

Celsius Network, a crypto lending business whose promise of eye-popping yields for retail consumers attracted a barrage of scrutiny from regulators, announced late Sunday night that it was halting withdrawals and crypto-for-crypto trading services for more than 2 million customers “due to extreme market conditions.”
With Celsius’s reported $11.8 billion of assets under pressure, the disruption accelerated a selloff in high-risk digital markets that were already reeling amid rising interest rates and a possible recession. Bitcoin, the most widely traded digital asset, has lost more than 17 percent of its value over the last 24 hours and is now trading below $23,000 — roughly a third of where it was valued in late fall.

With prices crashing, Binance — the world’s largest crypto marketplace — announced on Monday it was freezing Bitcoin withdrawals for technical reasons. Those services were resumed about three hours later.

Celsius’ problems are landing only a month after another popular DeFi protocol, TerraForm Labs, sustained tens of billions of dollars in losses following the collapse of its algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD. Like Celsius, Terraform had attracted interest in its platform by offering token holders high-yield returns in exchange for staking their crypto in an online lending platform.

State and federal market regulators have targeted those business strategies as a potential violation of securities law. BlockFi, a New Jersey-based platform, reached a $100 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission and 32 state agencies after it was accused of selling unlicensed investment products for about three years.

Celsius was hit with cease-and-desist orders by at least four state agencies over its lending platform last year and was reportedly being investigated by the SEC as well. In April, the company announced it would limit U.S. access to yield-generating lending products to accredited investors.

It’s unclear when Celsius will allow customers to withdraw their assets or resume trading. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

Over the weekend, Celsius CEO and Celsius Network CEO Alex Mashinsky had pushed back on an online critic who had tweeted that a “large number of retail folks look like they are soon to be rekt [sic].”

“Do you know even one person who has a problem withdrawing from Celsius?” Mashinsky tweeted.

The company announced it was halting withdrawals the following day.
Report Cider June 13, 2022 8:46 PM BST
daq sick


−537.77 (4.54%) today
Report A_T June 13, 2022 9:07 PM BST
Carnival trading lower the Covid crash. politicspunter they will be grateful for your business Grin
Report Cider June 13, 2022 9:09 PM BST
Daq close 10809, google has the wrong number for some reason.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 9:13 PM BST

Jun 13, 2022 -- 9:07PM, A_T wrote:

Carnival trading lower the Covid crash. politicspunter they will be grateful for your business

Are they really? Hope they don't go out of business before the end of October when our next cruise is booked for Laugh

Report shiny new shoes please June 14, 2022 11:55 AM BST
hundreds of millions of euro wiped from stock market valuations

A sharp slowdown in consumer spending  & the looming recession in Britain, usa & euroland   

surging inflation over 20%  Wink
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 14, 2022 4:14 PM BST
Pound hits $1.20
Report politicspunter June 15, 2022 10:40 AM BST
Bitcoin now down 33% in a week Shocked
Report politicspunter June 15, 2022 10:41 AM BST
and down 50% in a year Shocked
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 15, 2022 11:02 AM BST
I've not had so many crypto adverts these past
couple of months. The rampers must be out with their profit.
Report Cider June 15, 2022 4:06 PM BST
The ecb on form today:

Today the Governing Council met to exchange views on the current market situation. Since the gradual process of policy normalisation was initiated in December 2021, the Governing Council has pledged to act against resurgent fragmentation risks. The pandemic has left lasting vulnerabilities in the euro area economy which are indeed contributing to the uneven transmission of the normalisation of our monetary policy across jurisdictions.

Report Cider June 15, 2022 7:01 PM BST
.75 it is
Report Cider June 15, 2022 7:03 PM BST
they want 3.4% by the end of the calendar year Crazy
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2022 2:12 PM BST
UK interest rates up to 1.25

Boe voted 6-3 for 0.25% rise with
the 3 voting for 0.5%

Ftse down 2.6% as general world wide share sell
off continues

Pound up 1/2c v dollar at $1.2229
Report politicspunter June 16, 2022 2:15 PM BST
Bitcoin price stable today compared to the recent daily freefall.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2022 4:48 PM BST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJIA falls over 700 points, falling below 30,000 hitting session lows, as stock losses accelerate amid renewed recession concerns.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2022 4:50 PM BST
Average interest rate for 2-year fixed term mortgage deal has risen from 2.34% at the beginning of December to 3.25% - Moneyfacts
Report SontaranStratagem June 16, 2022 5:58 PM BST
Its the elephent in the room but people want to know about where they can rent a temp air con because its hot Crazy

Prices going up and the flock just ignore the obvious or are burying their head in the sand Plain
Report SontaranStratagem June 16, 2022 6:03 PM BST
Oh and some are moaning about car park charges... you couldnt make it up

A forum on inflation and rising rates and theres 6 pages today of none stop parking charges... pathetic
Report SontaranStratagem June 16, 2022 6:03 PM BST
Its like people are being willfully ignorent eh
Report politicspunter June 16, 2022 6:09 PM BST
Would you employ this person?
Report shiny new shoes please June 16, 2022 6:09 PM BST
Kansas is gone bye bye Grin
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2022 6:27 PM BST
Johnson v. Musk, Case No. 22-cv-05037, SDNY (Manhattan).

Keith Johnson sued Musk and his companies, claiming they engaged in illegal racketeering to raise the price of $DOGE.

$258 billion claimed, lol,
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2022 6:28 PM BST
He seeks $86 billion in damages, plus $172 billion in triple damages, as well as an injunction barring Musk and the companies from marketing $DOGE and declaring that the $DOGE trade is illegal under US and New York law.
Report Cider June 16, 2022 8:28 PM BST
Time to start buying the dip Happy
Report A_T June 16, 2022 9:04 PM BST
would not surprise me at all to see the Nasdaq drop to pre-covid levels
Report Cider June 16, 2022 10:03 PM BST
hopefully so, but people waiting for the absolute bottom will probably be waiting a long time. these are now quite reasonable levels to start getting involved. Even ARKK for the long play Shocked
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 17, 2022 1:50 PM BST
Mortgage rates have increased by twice as much as the @bankofengland rise in base rate - The Times
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 18, 2022 11:28 AM BST
Crypto tanking on a Saturday, whatever next.
Report politicspunter June 18, 2022 8:12 PM BST
Alastair Meeks
Has all hope gone from Bitcoin yet? Probably not.

Still, keep Bitcoin owners away from the Leonard Cohen records tonight.
Report politicspunter June 18, 2022 8:17 PM BST

Bitcoin drops below $18,300 as sell-off accelerates — here’s what happened
Report peckerdunne June 22, 2022 11:50 PM BST
Keeps falling, I wonder how leveraged it is.

Could have some big negative ripples.
Report dustybin June 23, 2022 10:09 AM BST
Statistically recession still around a year away, just under I think
FTSE still mighty high considering
I’m not buying owt till I see some serious shredding go on
Report Cider June 23, 2022 1:14 PM BST
cape on the 250 is very very low, and a good long bet I believe. obviously loads of domestic shenanigans going on, but I would not put anyone off long pound cost averaging, with yields improving due to depreciating valuations.

markets are very forward looking, so a recession is priced in. still scope for falling more, which is good.
Report dustybin June 23, 2022 2:26 PM BST
Tech stocks are a long way into the future but Im not convinced the others are.
You only need to look at the speculation regarding the severity of FED rate rises. It didnt take a genious to realise they were going to raise them yet it always comes down to the same week where the damage happens.

Or for that matter read what brokers make of the markets, they change their opinions more regular than their pants, from day to day they give their advice on what just happened, true charalatans.
Report dustybin June 23, 2022 2:54 PM BST
Report Cider June 23, 2022 3:38 PM BST
oh yes I'm not interested in broker ratings, load of nonsense.

for me the market makers didn't expect the fed to handbrake turn so quickly, and go cold turkey, so it was a bit of a screech. the markets have been otherwise gearing up for a global recession since the turn of the year. there's short term trading and long term investing, buying the market is now good long term investing imv.

you could easily see them turning the printers back on.
Report peckerdunne June 23, 2022 5:22 PM BST
If next month's figures are down its a recession.

There will be more haircuts im pretty sure.

There will be no printing this year.
Report Cider June 23, 2022 6:02 PM BST
Not much has changed though, since I called this correction. Commodities is a risky place to be if you're not watching it hourly, so I'm quite happy to switch back to buying the broader market. I'm sticking with index linked government bonds as a portion of my holding, and pca.
Report xmoneyx June 29, 2022 5:08 PM BST
whats forced SELLING mean?
Report Cider June 30, 2022 4:25 PM BST
bit more risk off. looking good
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 7:47 PM BST
Looks like Bitcoin took another tanking today.
Report shiny new shoes please July 1, 2022 12:14 PM BST
EU reaches agreement on crypto rules
harmonised market, legal certainty for crypto-asset issuers, guarantee a level playing field for service providers,ensure high standards for consumer protection Cry
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 9:19 PM BST
Voyager Update July 1, 2022
Today, Voyager made the difficult but necessary decision to temporarily suspend trading, deposits, withdrawals, and loyalty rewards, effective at 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on July 1.

Another crypto collapse.
Report xmoneyx July 2, 2022 12:33 AM BST
why does crypto move up & down drasticly if its a currency
Report shiny new shoes please July 2, 2022 6:05 PM BST
Are We Already In A Recession? Yes
Fed indicator negative territory, recession,two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
40bn of European corporate bonds distressed
13trillion swallowed Laugh
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 2:31 PM BST
19 year fresh U$D highs

could have a lot further to go still

stocks, crypto, metals and even oil taking a kicking today, could get nasty real quick
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 2:32 PM BST
We've not seen cascading waterfalls yet imo which means retail holding onto their testicular region and hoping for the best
Report dustybin July 5, 2022 2:43 PM BST
where else are they going to put their money, when dividends still beat even the highest bank rates and inflation busting loose?
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 3:04 PM BST
That seems to be the 'quandary of the moment' dusty

I'm out of market bar a couple of small silver miners which I may well sell today

charts look disgusting to me atm.. we had what was possibly a 'bear market rally' and constant offers on rallies ever since across a lot of assets

SP500 just fell out of ascending channel which kept it in check since last low

doesn't look well to me at all
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 3:10 PM BST
USD seems to be the place right now

Metals getting hammered, finally they give

GBP taking it up the jacksie too...On it's way to parity ?

all towards USD today

All the other currencies to the bin immediately with USD being the least dirty shirt in the laundry basket ... until ...
Report Timber July 5, 2022 3:11 PM BST
Pol pot absolutely clueless about bitcoin
And 99.99% still clueless about crypto
All the foundations and infrastructure is been built for the future of the world in crypto
It's a lot of heavy lifting and trial and error.
Report Timber July 5, 2022 3:12 PM BST
The USD is still the reserve currency, but even that is propped up by the biggest Ponzi scheme is history
Report dustybin July 5, 2022 3:31 PM BST
Im also out
Other than Ultra that I can cash in now anyday since it seems it has the green light from monopolies for a takeover
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 3:32 PM BST
Yep... USD backed by nothing more than the military really Timber

All fiat will turn to dust eventually , always has ..

It's already happening... Turkey/Sri Lanka... look at Japan , still merrily printing and sterling looks awful, all serving to prop the $ further( for the time being)

a race to the bottom...

The things we need to survive... that's what to buy/store/hold ahead of holding currency

and autonomy over authority is where people need to be looking (ie Bitcoin/physical gold ..these will fall further on an aggressive liquidiation event) but even then with what I think is coming there may be no easy way out..

Once the system switches to digital tokens/identification/restriction/rules it will be almost next to impossible to trade any other way but through 'their' system
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 3:39 PM BST
Dusty, the quandary.., where do you go even for the short/medium term ?

Plenty of retail with sore pieces after trying to find protection from inflation last 2 years but then again one should not try to fight the FED in a tightening cycle

been happening for beards

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
–Thomas Jefferson

question is how far will they go this time ?
Report dustybin July 5, 2022 3:43 PM BST
The Economist have built a model on revolution and riots and found it results in a GDP frop of 1.5% around a year later
There model shows how Afric and Asia really in the 5hit due to grain dependencies, and most of the sub continent are expected to riot.

Turkey a bit different, they got a nutjob who thinks inflation is tackled by LOWERING interest rates...the government is on the hook for the promises to subsidise some investment they created to encourage the population to invest into when inflation went out of a new war is predicted
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 4:00 PM BST
Lol yeah Turkey does have a 'further' disadvantage in Erdogan
Report Cider July 5, 2022 4:01 PM BST
It felt like the right time to come out of commodities. Like I said the other day, it can turn easily and quickly.

I favour quality, profit making assets now and plough on through, pound cost averaging. Short and medium duration gvnt bonds.
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 4:05 PM BST
It doesn't matter where you look though, more pain looks a given .. everywhere
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 4:07 PM BST
And most if not all is being stoked and engineered
Report Cider July 5, 2022 4:10 PM BST
this is good thing though, just got to look beyond the noise. a lovely extended bear market is lovely. when others are fearful and all that. i'm quite happy consistently putting my chips in now.

if there is a catastrophic world event, we're all fekked anyway
Report Cider July 5, 2022 4:12 PM BST
it won't get really jiggy until access to cash properly dries up, and real estate turns
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 4:20 PM BST
I'm with you on that Cider but I think we some way off a bottom tbh

this edgy pip lower activity generally makes retail soporific and slow to act..

1 pip up, 2 pips down etc more selling to come imo

tbf tho I'm leaning toward the whole show being fekked and therefore so are we anyway Silly

bp , shell off 9-10% today !!

know plenty who have sought solace in energy as 'the hedge' recently
Report clouded leopard July 5, 2022 4:23 PM BST
also been watching metals closely recently

Gold done a great job of 'staying still' for gbp buyers since turn of the year while everything else melted away due largely in part to $ strength

They've breached good levels today downside and in the past this some times an indicator of a broad sell off all over.
Report Cider July 5, 2022 4:29 PM BST
nobody can call the bottom, but we can prepare for it. bp and shell is a direct function of the oil spot price of course.

if the commodity correction is big enough, it will be tempting to jump back in again.

for novice investors, with the uk tilt i like the LifeStrategy 100% Equity Fund (acc). Just pound cost average for the next 10 years, job done.
Report Cider July 5, 2022 4:32 PM BST
i do actually own a gold etc but it's currency hedged. that's just a buy and hold for me, to add diversity
Report peckerdunne July 5, 2022 4:48 PM BST
I mentioned BP and Shell to fall on this thread a couple of months ago, not to everyone's liking I seem to remember.

I can't remember the date or

price and I didn't track them, so immaterial really.

I think what goes up comes down more in these volatile conditions, more haircuts.

However you gotta start somewhere, so if long and averaging you may well be fine, because there is

some real good value around if you can find it.

Diversification is for girls innit ha
Report peckerdunne July 5, 2022 4:55 PM BST
Report Cider July 5, 2022 5:00 PM BST
shell and bp are a proxy for the oil price. a couple of weeks ago I felt (and posted) it was the time to get out of commodities, that the run was coming to an end. it's not a great thing to be involved in long term as it can be extremely volatile.
Report Cider July 5, 2022 5:03 PM BST
$ strength is curious. i know that a flight to the dollar is standard practice when there is global fear, but not after it has been incredibly devalued. or so one might think.
Report clouded leopard July 6, 2022 12:18 PM BST
more $ strength this morning, mainly against a diseased ridden euro

DXY is heavily weighted with the euro so main driver of this index spike

Don't think it's a really true representation of $ value however
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