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MartinK
17 Feb 22 09:41
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Date Joined: 07 Mar 01
| Topic/replies: 1,065 | Blogger: MartinK's blog
The French presidential election look like a slam dunk for sitting president Emmanuel Macron who’s polling has been steady mainly in the 24%-25% range in most polls for the last 6 months. The main betting arena is in the “To finish in the final two”, after the first round of voting. There are  four possible contender to join Macron in the final round, the Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.

Marine Le Pen (National Rally – far-right) – is favourite to join Macron in the final two as she did in 2017. That time though, she had just the one contender from the right hand side of French politics in the shape of François Fillon of the LR (centre-right party), this time she has two right wing contenders, Valérie Pécresse (LR) and Éric Zemmour (Populist). It’s mainly  Éric Zemmour who has really dented her polling numbers which were in the 20’s prior to his inclusion and currently sit around the 16%-17.5% range.

Valérie Pécresse LR (centre-right party) – Won the LR primary in December and received a boost which saw her polling reach a high of 18%, but mainly in the 16.5%-17.5% range. Has fallen back since and now polls in the 14.5%-16% range. Her rhetoric has moved towards the right in recent speeches in what is seen as a tactic to counter the populist candidate  Zemmour.

Éric Zemmour (Populist) – A broadcaster turned politician (where have we seen that before), has recently been convicted of hate speech for the third time, but is appealing the conviction, and just like Trump has made immigration a main plank of his platform. His current polling is in the 13.5%-14.5% range and like Trump his best chance may be in getting previous non-voters who may identify with his views to the polls, and as such his polling numbers may well under count his support.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Unbowed) – Rallied the left’s vote in the 2017 presidential election to be a close up 4th just 600k votes behind the second placed Marine Le Pen, and need a repeat effort to have any chance in this year renewal. He had been running neck and neck with the environmentalist Yannick Jadot for much of last year on 8-9%, but in the last couple of month Jadot’s numbers have fallen back to a general mark of 5% with  Mélenchon’s breaking into double figures. In 2017 he was on 11%-12% at this time, but support surged to 19% in the polls and with the right split three ways, if he is able to unite the left again has a sporting chance of reaching the final two.

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Replies: 515
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 Feb 22 09:55
Nice one Martin. I haven't any bets at all on this market but will be having a good look now.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 Feb 22 15:29
France, Odoxa poll:

Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 24.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 18% (+1)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14% (+2)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 12% (-7)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 11% (+1)


+/- vs. 7-9 Dec.

Fieldwork: 15-16 Feb. 2022
Sample size: 1,357
By:
Escapee
When: 17 Feb 22 18:56
France - Presidential Election -- To Finish In The Final 2                    £226,812 Matched


Emmanuel Macron    1.02 1.03 1.04   1.06   1.07   1.08   £120,231
        £5,182 £2,040 £148     £2,396 £1,118 £1,302  
Marine Le Pen    1.91 1.93 1.94   2   2.1   2.36   £54,125
        £256 £1 £5     £285 £300 £140  
Valerie Pecresse    3.85 4 4.2   4.7   4.8   4.9   £14,796
        £5 £81 £120     £61 £42 £50  
Eric Zemmour    3.6 3.7 3.75   4   4.1   4.2   £28,029
        £100 £87 £3     £63 £42 £54  
Jean-Luc Melenchon    15.5 16 16.5   22   23   24   £6,514
        £1 £2 £2     £25 £16 £40  
Christiane Taubira    70 80 95   -   -   -   £315
        £2 £76 £5              
Yanick Jadot    140 160 170   890   -   -   £154
        £5 £4 £1     £2        
Anne Hidalgo    220 240 260   -   -   -   £260
        £2 £3 £2              
Edouard Philippe    200 210 260   1000   -   -   £171
        £5 £6 £3     £2        
Eric Ciotti    120 200 1000   -   -   -   £140
        £20 £3 £6              
Nicolas Sarkozy    310 320 1000   -   -   -   £4
        £4 £1 £4              
Xavier Bertrand    420 500 550   -   -   -   £1,601
        £2 £1 £1              
Francois Asselineau    5.5 110 130   -   -   -   £30
        £8 £50 £7              
François Hollande    360 410 1000   -   -   -   £11
        £2 £2 £2              
Bruno Retailleau    470 520 1000   -   -   -   £31
        £3 £1 £2              
Michel Barnier    520 530 1000   -   -   -   £369
        £3 £2 £2              
Francois Baroin    410 510 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £2 £1 £4              
Arnaud Montebourg    12 610 1000   -   -   -   £1
        £3 £1 £6              
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan    210 260 330   -   -   -   £14
        £81 £4 £8              
Nicolas Hulot    12 100 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £3 £6 £4              
Eric Piolle    12 100 1000   -   -   -   £1
        £3 £7 £4              
Ségolène Royal    44 100 1000   -   -   -   £4
        £3 £1 £5              
Bruno Le Maire    12 500 1000   -   -   -   £1
        £3 £2 £3              
Jean Lassalle    12 30 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £3 £14 £4              
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet    12 100 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £3 £9 £3              
Bernard Cazeneuve    21 65 1000   -   -   -   £5
        £7 £2 £5              
Joachim Son-Forget    12 100 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £3 £10 £3              
Florian Philippot    2 12 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £2 £3 £3              
Fabien Roussel    - 50 1000   -   -   -   £0
            £212 £2              
By:
MartinK
When: 17 Feb 22 20:13
Odoxa
Candidate's Name -  sep 21 - oct 21 - nov 21 - dec 21 - jan 21 - feb 21
Jean-Luc Mélenchon -  8% - 9% - 8.5% - 10% - x% - 11% -
Yannick Jadot - 4.5% - 7% - 6.5% - 6% - x%  - 5% -
Emmanuel Macron     - 26% - 26% - 25% - 24% -  x% - 24.5% -
Valérie Pécresse -  13% - 8.5% - 9% - 19% - x% - 12% -
Marine Le Pen - 21% - 18.5% - 18.5% - 17% - x% - 18% -
Éric Zemmour -  10% - 16.5% - 14.5% - 12% - x% - 14% -

Odoxa didn't do a Jan poll.
Valérie Pécresse - won the LR primary and the post primary bump is that 19%
Of all the pollsters Odoxa have consistently had the highest polling numbers for Marine Le Pen - others currently have her between 15% and 17.5%
By:
Escapee
When: 17 Feb 22 20:33
Marine Le Pen (National Rally – far-right) – is favourite to join Macron in the final two as she did in 2017.

given this, backing her at evens seems value.


Not sure if French polls have a recent history of being wide of the mark in the same
way as last decade+ of UK & USA polls?
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 Feb 22 20:35
It really depends which UK and USA polls you considered to be wide of the mark Grin
By:
Escapee
When: 17 Feb 22 20:43
"On Average" is what I'm asking about as its better/easier/lazier IMHO to bet on indexes than individual stocks.
By:
politicspunter
When: 18 Feb 22 10:50
France, BVA poll:

Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 24% (-1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17.5% (+0.5)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14.5% (+0.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 13.5% (-1)
Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 10.5% (+1.5)


+/- vs. 7-9 Feb

Fieldwork: 15-16 Feb
Sample size: 1,500
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 10:46
France, OpinionWay poll:

Presidential election

Macron (LREM-RE): 24% (+1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17% (-1)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 15% (-1)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 14% (+1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10%


+/- vs. 9-10 Feb.

Fieldwork: 16-17 February 2022
Sample size: 982
By:
MartinK
When: 19 Feb 22 12:12
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election

The poll were very good in 2017
name - actual vote - (last poll by 6 different pollsters)
Mélenchon - 19.58 - (19.5, 19.5, 19, 19, 18.5)
Macron - 24.01 -  (24.5, 24.5, 24.5, 24, 24, 23)
Fillon - 20.01 - (20, 20, 19.5, 19, 19, 19)
Le Pen - 21.03 - (23, 23, 22.5, 22, 21.5, 21)

If anything Le Penn scored slightly less than her polling, and Fillon slightly more, Macron about right, and Mélenchon at the top end of his polling.
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Feb 22 13:16
Many thanks MartinK just the sort of thing I was looking for.

I'm not that clued up on the French political set up, and it's players.

Looking the data on the Wikipedia page, it would seem that French pollsters were
mostly within a reasonable margin of error, unlike UK & USA.
I'm going to take a wild guess that they are or appear more accurate because they
have to be engineered to work with a PR system unlike the first past the post mess we have.



With the top 4 all so close, just 4.5% between them, it's totally different to UK.
By:
MartinK
When: 19 Feb 22 13:45
That was last time in 2017 when there was one mainstream right of centre and a single far right candidate. This time we have the right of centre candidate - Pécresse, a far right Le Pen and an Islamophobic racist - Zemmour (think Trump on steroids) - who on some polls are running all at 15%, and other span between 12% and 18%. Indications are that Pécresse has made a poor start and is losing ground, but she does represent the LR (similar to our Tories) so may well bounce back as he campaign progresses. Macron is clear with the other bunching for second.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 14:22

Feb 19, 2022 -- 1:16PM, Escapee wrote:


Many thanks MartinK just the sort of thing I was looking for.I'm not that clued up on the French political set up, and it's players.Looking the data on the Wikipedia page, it would seem that French pollsters weremostly within a reasonable margin of error, unlike UK & USA.I'm going to take a wild guess that they are or appear more accurate because theyhave to be engineered to work with a PR system unlike the first past the post mess we have.With the top 4 all so close, just 4.5% between them, it's totally different to UK.


Escapee, Exactly what polls in the UK and USA are you referring to?

By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Feb 22 14:31
The actual vote in first poll needs to be polled
as French tend not to always vote for desired winner
in first poll.

Heart in first poll, head in second.


Le pen supporters usually turn out for her though.
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Feb 22 14:32
well there are loads I think.
Brexit, Boris's own election majority, to name a couple of big dichotomies.

On average, which is what I need to know about, and despite the masses of technological and social media advances
of the last 2 decades, UK polls have become less accurate, even totally wide of reality.


I find this sort of average info useful for testing my conjectures and probability weightings
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Feb 22 14:33
Looking at overall polls will not
automatically give accurate result
of first poll.

Pretty sure I've seen polls for first
vote in previous years.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 14:44

Feb 19, 2022 -- 2:32PM, Escapee wrote:


well there are loads I think. Brexit, Boris's own election majority, to name a couple of big dichotomies. On average, which is what I need to know about, and despite the masses of technological and social media advancesof the last 2 decades, UK polls have become less accurate, even totally wide of reality.I find this sort of average info useful for testing my conjectures and probability weightings


Brexit was a stonewall toss up according to the polls. Here they are...

Out of the 44 polls nearest the date of the vote..

Leave 21
Remain 19
Tie 4

By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 14:48
Here are the polls for the 2019 General Election. Many polls very accurate, some incredibly accurate the nearer the date came..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 14:50
Brexit opinion polls...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
.
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Feb 22 14:56
"Brexit was a stonewall toss up according to the polls. "

ah well, maybe my conjecture that polls are less accurate than they were 15 years ago is incorrect and I need to disabuse myself of this notion.


However, If all the polls were, on average, accurate within acceptable parameters, then I wonder why
the corresponding markets were so out of kilter with them,  and the results.

I'm a bit puzzled, but also salivating at the prospect of the easy money to be made by just following the polls as they 'know'.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 14:58
You have just stumbled upon why betting on politics is a licence to print money Grin
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Feb 22 15:01
Indeed escapee.


A 1% lead in polling is not
saying they are certs.

There also seems to be money invested
into punting markets to skew the odds to
generate news headlines and momentum.

Last usa election, the odds were consistently
wrong according to known info.

Money kept piling in...
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Feb 22 15:04
The odds were so wrong you could lay
one candidate at 1/2 and other at 2/1
at same time for thousands!

This led to massive greens on Harris, and
pence, which, due to circumstances, and
ramping, became easy lays, and easy profit.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 15:08
The London Mayoral Election candidate Brian Rose deliberately placed vast amounts of money on himself on the exchanges in order to give the impression on his literature that he was second favourite and hence the challenger best placed to defeat Sadiq Khan. I think he traded lower than 4.0 despite the polls saying he would get between one and two percent. He achieved 1.2%.
By:
Corky
When: 19 Feb 22 15:15
Looks like France is pretty right wing. If the vote wasn't so split Macron would be retiring soon.
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Feb 22 15:31
PP
"Brexit opinion polls...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
."

Even Wikipedia (incorrectly?) agrees with my conjecture, on that linked page


Polling methods

....The results of the [Brexit]Referendum, as with the results of the 2015 General Election, show that there is still a problem with the polling methodology.....
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Feb 22 15:45
Opinion polls depend upon their previous
polling, and their interviewees past record.

Brexit posed a unique problem, in that
there was no previous brexit vote.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 15:47
I didn't find anything wrong with the Brexit polling. Some had remain just ahead, some had leave just ahead, some had a tie. If they had all said remain would clearly win, then there would be a problem.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 15:50
From the wikipedia page on EU referendum polling...

The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day. Polls on the general principle of the UK's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum. Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving.
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Feb 22 15:55
so Wikipedia contradicts itself on the same page then.

lol
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 15:57
I think the paragraph you referred to earlier is questioning the apparent disparity between polling methodology ie online and phone polling.
By:
politicspunter
When: 19 Feb 22 16:01
Many polling companies in various events have made the mistake of not changing their methodology to reflect current circumstances. The real howlers were in the 2017 UK General election where a few pollsters failed to recognise the surge in support for Labour who were targeting younger voters and those who had never voted either at all or for a long time. They compounded their errors by not altering the weighting of those likely voters.
By:
MartinK
When: 21 Feb 22 13:35
----you-have-to-laugh--
Looking at overall polls will not automatically give accurate result of first poll.
Pretty sure I've seen polls for first vote in previous years.


The polling quoted here is for the first round - there tends to be further polls for the final round
Macron vs Le Pen - 56/44
Macron vs Pécresse - 56/44
Macron vs Zemmour - 63/37
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 21 Feb 22 13:49
Cheers Martin.
By:
lfc1971
When: 21 Feb 22 14:20
It looks as though Macron could be Frances equivalent to Blair , taking up the centre ground and maybe winning two or three elections
in a row .
By:
lfc1971
When: 21 Feb 22 14:24
The French people want right wing policies , and left wing policies
It’s difficult to find the right leader or party
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 21 Feb 22 14:28
Maybe you ain't looking very hard
By:
lfc1971
When: 21 Feb 22 14:47
Zemmour is interesting and about the only one addressing the fundamental issues . The rest such as macron are merely trying to bale out water from a sinking ship
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 21 Feb 22 16:47
I'll be in Nice throughout April. I'm looking forward to it all kicking off in the flower market Laugh
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