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Escapee
03 Feb 22 22:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 4,211 | Blogger: Escapee's blog
this could be settled in days (or not)

rishi is 2.7 currently, if BJ goes in days then that's huge, but if he gets over partygate????????

anyone on a good bet?
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Report Escapee February 21, 2022 1:07 PM GMT
his [Rishi] drift was triggered by his clumsy* attempt to placate the millions in fuel poverty
by saying he wasn't going to help them because he didn't want to frighten some (foreign) Billionaires.


*clumsy? his TV appearances came across as posh-no-idea-about-you-but-I'm-ok greasy estate agent type.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- February 21, 2022 1:11 PM GMT
He's the tories top performer amongst
non tory voters.
Report Escapee February 21, 2022 1:19 PM GMT
He's the tories top performer amongst
non tory voters.


if true, then his odds are surely going to come into the 10 to 50's range
if/when there's a 'race' in the next year or two.


wondering If I should back this notion with £20-£50 at 350 to sell it off much lower if it pans out?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- February 21, 2022 1:25 PM GMT
If its a long term punt, but I'd have thought
it more likely he turns up batting for some
other party or making TV documentaries /
travel programs.

Need Johnson to hang about a long time
to get odds down.
Report Escapee February 21, 2022 1:38 PM GMT
who are the grey candidates?

Tories have a history of electing the dull grey types (Major, Duncan-Smith, May) when it's in crisis.


maybe need to start adding some grey horses to the stable
Report Whisperingdeath February 21, 2022 1:39 PM GMT
He fought the law and the law won

News incoming
Report Escapee February 22, 2022 12:43 PM GMT
Rees-Mogg is the Kingmaker?


Just listened to a bit of "The coming Storm" on Radio 4 (Think it was from episode 4)
and there is stuff in it about Rees-Moggs's dad being effectively one of the 4 founders
of Q-Anon. (News to me Shocked)

anyway there's enough "stuff" to come to a sizeable enough probability that there is
a very influential cabal surrounding the Rees-Moggs, and that if one is betting on the
next conservative leader, one should consider who Rees-Mogg is 'backing'.

Was Rees Mogg the kingmaker behind Cameron & Boris?
Report Escapee February 22, 2022 12:55 PM GMT
I seem to Rees-Mogg doing pretty much all the "official" TV interviews on behalf
of Boris during the illegal prorogation of Parliament.
Totally, and quite smugly batting off all the journalists with "nothing to see here" replies.

was it rees-mogg who "withdrew" his support from BJ, and hence BJ's withdrawal from
the first post brexit leadership challenge? Gove allegedly did a 180 u-turn on boris,
and stood himself, and the grey 'holding' candidate (May) went on to win.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- February 22, 2022 1:11 PM GMT
Johnson talked of soft brexit, so was stopped.

Rees mogg will be a member of that group.
Report Escapee February 22, 2022 1:27 PM GMT
following the leads on from a grey and or Mogg candidate possibility, I thought I'd
check out Brady's, odds and maybe adding him to the stable.

But he's not even listed in the market



Wikipedia

Sir Graham Stuart Brady (born 20 May 1967) is a British politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997. A member of the Conservative Party, he has been Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2020, previously holding the position from 2010 to 2019.

Brady served as Shadow Minister for Europe under four Conservative leaders before resigning in 2007 in protest at David Cameron's opposition to grammar schools. He succeeded Sir Michael Spicer as Chairman of the 1922 Committee on 26 May 2010.[1][2] On 1 December 2010, Brady was voted "Backbencher of the Year" by The Spectator at its annual parliamentary awards.

He resigned as 1922 Committee chairman on 24 May 2019 in order to explore launching a bid to become leader of the Conservative Party in the weeks that followed,[3] but ultimately opted not to run for Leader. Brady temporarily returned to the 1922 Committee on 3 September 2019, to serve as its acting Chairman "until a new executive is elected in the next session of Parliament".[4] He was subsequently re-elected as the permanent Chair on 20 January 2020.[5]
Report politicspunter February 22, 2022 1:40 PM GMT
150s if you shop around.
Report Escapee February 22, 2022 2:06 PM GMT
trying to pick a grey candidate at this point in time, I think I would want over 500, closer to 1,000.

150 is a lay surely? (disregarding the stupidity of locking up money for upto a decade for
0.66% return)
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- February 22, 2022 2:10 PM GMT
If you've a green on him by laying others then hes
surely a lay at 150.

Laying 150 shots with real money over a period
of time is a poor idea in general.
Report politicspunter February 22, 2022 2:44 PM GMT
I am not a layer at those type of odds over an unknown and possibly very long time period. A backer for small amounts, certainly, the downside is minimal and the upside could be massive.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- February 24, 2022 5:58 PM GMT
Tom Tugendhat says politicians in the West who enable Putin and his murderous cronies are "traitors".

He calls for the Treason Act to be updated so they can be prosecuted
Report politicspunter February 24, 2022 6:00 PM GMT
Off with their heads !
Report cryoftruth February 24, 2022 7:26 PM GMT
Not sure if Jeremy Hunt is a possible,

He would be someone Labour would be worried about as he seems to have a hint of integrity, appears  not to be an idiotic extremist and is quite a clever even strong in debates.
Report Cider February 24, 2022 7:27 PM GMT
nfc
Report cryoftruth February 26, 2022 9:56 PM GMT
I suppose not.
His having a little integrity would doubtless rule him out.

Not sure he ever got bungs from Putin either.
Report Escapee April 10, 2022 3:55 AM BST
Who will Rees-Mogg pick as his next Chancellor?

Now that Rishi has been outed as a tax avoiding American wannabe his days as chancellor are surely limited. Rees Mogg will be head hunting his next chancellor.
If you can work out who this will be and back him in the next leader market you'll be quids in because who ever it is will be in the hot seat for the next leader job and the odds will plummet.

suggestions?


UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.                    £166,516 Matched


-£12 Rishi Sunak    8.2 8.6 9   10   10.5   11   £65,433
        £3 £2 £1     £71 £2 £50  
-£12 Liz Truss    7.4 7.6 7.8   8.2   8.6   8.8   £20,473
        £8 £19 £2     £12 £2 £2  
-£12 Jeremy Hunt    10 11 11.5   12.5   13   13.5   £13,583
        £10 £7 £2     £2 £23 £18  
-£12 Tom Tugendhat    9.4 9.6 9.8   10   10.5   11.5   £7,944
        £2 £4 £4     £11 £12 £10  
-£12 Penny Mordaunt    12.5 13 13.5   14.5   15   15.5   £5,120
        £1 £3 £2     £9 £16 £6  
-£12 Michael Gove    20 21 22   25   26   27   £12,407
        £4 £20 £10     £50 £5 £5  
-£12 Sajid Javid    14 15.5 16   19   19.5   22   £6,726
        £2 £14 £2     £2 £53 £5  
£255 Dominic Raab    44 48 50   60   65   75   £5,903
        £2 £3 £2     £2 £5 £7  
-£12 Ben Wallace    11.5 12 12.5   13.5   14   15   £3,834
        £9 £16 £2     £11 £13 £2  
-£12 Steve Baker    32 36 46   75   80   85   £1,755
        £2 £7 £2     £3 £9 £5  
-£12 Nadhim Zahawi    25 26 27   29   32   34   £1,932
        £8 £1 £3     £29 £4 £43  
-£12 Priti Patel    46 48 50   65   70   75   £4,865
        £3 £2 £2     £3 £2 £2  
-£12 Jacob Rees-Mogg    60 70 75   95   100   110   £1,807
        £2 £1 £2     £3 £10 £3  
-£12 Mark Harper    50 60 65   85   90   95   £1,094
        £6 £5 £2     £5 £11 £2  
-£12 Kwasi Kwarteng    40 50 55   100   120   130   £1,213
        £2 £12 £2     £2 £6 £2  
-£12 Johnny Mercer    21 50 95   110   120   140   £951
        £2 £3 £5     £2 £1 £2  
-£12 Kemi Badenoch    38 40 42   70   75   80   £856
        £6 £5 £1     £10 £13 £40  
-£12 Oliver Dowden    60 65 130   240   250   880   £1,217
        £20 £2 £3     £2 £5 £2  
-£12 Therese Coffey    42 270 280   700   1000   -   £260
        £2 £1 £2     £1 £6      
£1,052 Rory Stewart    260 300 310   590   600   620   £1,258
        £4 £1 £2     £2 £2 £1  
-£12 James Cleverly    55 160 170   240   250   290   £675
        £3 £2 £2     £2 £2 £2  
-£12 Grant Shapps    110 130 140   270   290   300   £724
        £3 £3 £2     £1 £3 £2  
-£12 Ruth Davidson    27 190 200   300   320   330   £698
        £3 £3 £3     £4 £2 £3  
-£12 Alok Sharma    4.1 23 95   360   380   390   £317
        £22 £2 £6     £3 £2 £10  
-£12 Anne-Marie Trevelyan    80 85 90   190   440   450   £301
        £5 £2 £2     £4 £2 £2  
-£12 Brandon Lewis    95 210 220   370   390   400   £149
        £2 £2 £3     £5 £2 £2  
-£12 Matt Hancock    55 60 100   490   500   650   £1,341
        £3 £2 £3     £2 £5 £2  
-£12 Nadine Dorries    340 350 380   1000   -   -   £36
        £4 £5 £1     £2        
-£12 Amanda Milling    810 850 860   1000   -   -   £43
        £3 £1 £3     £6        
-£12 George Eustice    90 180 190   550   590   600   £126
        £6 £2 £3     £5 £2 £2  
-£12 Andrea Leadsom    90 250 260   960   970   990   £234
        £4 £3 £2     £2 £10 £2  
-£12 Robert Buckland    280 290 540   1000   -   -   £120
        £4 £2 £1     £5        
-£12 Theresa May    350 360 510   900   970   1000   £122
        £2 £2 £1     £2 £2 £5  
-£12 Will Quince    40 330 340   1000   -   -   £65
        £6 £2 £2     £2        
-£12 Robert Jenrick    40 60 200   -   -   -   £293
        £5 £1 £4              
-£12 Jesse Norman    710 780 790   -   -   -   £42
        £2 £2 £3              
-£12 Suella Braverman    38 40 120   -   -   -   £90
        £5 £7 £4              
-£12 Ranil Jayawardena    630 670 680   1000   -   -   £87
        £2 £2 £3     £3        
-£12 Simon Hart    10 10.5 770   -   -   -   £31
        £25 £2 £5              
-£12 Natalie Evans    42 770 780   -   -   -   £28
        £2 £2 £5              
-£12 Alister Jack    4.2 780 790   -   -   -   £36
        £2 £2 £4              
-£12 Amber Rudd    100 710 720   -   -   -   £619
        £1 £1 £4              
-£12 Gavin Williamson    510 810 900   -   -   -   £367
        £3 £2 £1              
-£12 Geoffrey Cox    420 430 1000   -   -   -   £115
        £1 £2 £7              
£708 Tobias Ellwood    48 75 80   130   140   150   £416
        £3 £3 £2     £5 £2 £5  
-£12 Steve Barclay    40 42 44   55   60   65   £698
        £3 £21 £4     £2 £4 £1  
-£12 Julian Smith    40 42 230   670   1000   -   £110
        £5 £2 £3     £5 £6      
Report Escapee April 10, 2022 1:54 PM BST
There was £22 wanting to back Rishi at 9, so I just laid it for themCool

Will be able to green out the liability for £7 in a month or two, he's a gonner.
happy to take more at that price if anyone wants to back him.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 10, 2022 2:05 PM BST
Sometimes the markets on betfair are slow to
hit realistic prices after a jolt.

Next spurs manager and trapatoni a great lesson.

Sunak should be way out there, but..
Report Escapee April 10, 2022 2:42 PM BST
just laid the £55 @ 10 as wellLaugh

he's toast
Report Escapee April 11, 2022 6:36 PM BST
I've been continuing to lay Rishi at prices between 8.6 & 10.5
My thinking is: There's very little downside as there is no quick rehabilitation for him, there's no quick route to forgiving and forgetting.

If my thinking is correct, I am most likely just carrying liability until the next cabinet reshuffle or he Jumps and I can green out the liability as the market adjusts.

I'm an amateur at these long term markets, this is my first attempt at a 'pro' play with more than recreational money.
Report Escapee April 12, 2022 5:12 PM BST
Timberrrrrr........ Laugh


UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.                    £169,213 Matched


Rishi Sunak    13 13.5 14   17.5   18   19   £65,968
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 12, 2022 5:16 PM BST
Still slow to go out....
Report Escapee April 12, 2022 5:27 PM BST
Still a thin market, there's only been £2.7k matched on the whole field since the 9th and a chunk of that has been myself and another laying Rishi, and someone's been backing the other 3 favourites since Sunday who are all shortening
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 12, 2022 5:30 PM BST
Seems typical for betfair.

At times patience is very much required.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 12, 2022 5:30 PM BST
Had Sunak not been at the party, I reckon he
would already be PM.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 12, 2022 5:35 PM BST
They will now be working out who might win, and if that suits their policy.

If they can't get somebody to do their bidding
they may well stick with lame duck Johnson, in hope
they get their pet project passed before election.
Report Escapee April 12, 2022 5:37 PM BST
Rees Mogg is going to have find 2 clean candidates for the 2 top spots now.
Going to be hard with all the endless sleaze and pocket stuffing.
Report politicspunter April 12, 2022 5:37 PM BST
Someone like Ben Wallace must in the shake up I guess plus any well respected but non party enthusiasts.
Report SontaranStratagem April 12, 2022 5:53 PM BST
Boris is going nowhere said this millions of times

He’s the immovable object
Report politicspunter April 12, 2022 5:55 PM BST
No need for you to apply SS, work experience is required.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 12, 2022 5:57 PM BST
Sont would be a coin flip v Johnson.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 21, 2022 4:57 PM BST
Tobias Elwood twitter


An extraordinary 24 hours in Parliament.

It’s time to stop drinking the Kool-Aid.


—---------------(((((


Is that a hat I see being tossed into the ring?
Report politicspunter April 21, 2022 4:59 PM BST
He has to be in the shake up.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 21, 2022 5:06 PM BST
With a war on,... Who better?
Report Escapee April 21, 2022 5:07 PM BST
I've got a fiver on him at 144 avg Cool
Report politicspunter April 21, 2022 5:20 PM BST
160 for me but only £2.
Report frog1000 April 21, 2022 7:13 PM BST
Elwood is totally unsuitable as a Tory leader.

He wanted to stay in the EU and also has strange views on various important issue.
Report Escapee April 21, 2022 7:30 PM BST
Boris is totally unsuitable as a Tory leader.

He wanted to stay and party and also has strange views on various important issues, such as honesty, integrity, lying, Russian money, cash for questions, cash for peerages etc etc etc etc etc etc.

fixed your post for you frog1000
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 21, 2022 7:52 PM BST
Haven't paid much attention to this. Concentrating on year of exit really.

Looking at it though, surely they now need someone untainted by the last 18 months or so. They lack a standout candidate and there's no doubt that's kept Johnson in longer than otherwise, but their performance in successive polls has MP's worrying about their own futures. No surprise to see Baker doing that today after yesterday' poll predicted he'd be unseated himself. Nothing more certain than tories' self-interest.

So now, it's just a case of getting Johnson out and then thinking about the next muppet. So yeah, the only thing I can predict is them trying to draw a bold line under this and not going to any high profile defenders of him in recent months.

The interesting question is the brexit one funnily enough. Will getting a brexiteer in be considered important any more. Latest poll says most people think our exit is being handled badly. Not for a second thinking they'll do a 180 and look to re-join but the strategy's not working. That much is clear. Do they think it's important to keep on doubling down, making empty threats and blaming everyone else or has enough light been shone on it for them to realise Europe and the rest of the world won't just bend to our will and we need to make some adjustments ourselves.

Will be fun to find out at least.
Report politicspunter April 21, 2022 8:27 PM BST
Three out of the top five in the betting are not in the cabinet.
Report Escapee April 21, 2022 9:28 PM BST
I'm looking for those with favourable Rees-Mogg connections

suggestions?
Report tanglefoot April 21, 2022 9:32 PM BST
Nigel Farage to be parachuted in Laugh
Report tobermory April 21, 2022 10:06 PM BST
From everything I've read on pro Tory sites Ben Wallace should be clear fav
Report SontaranStratagem April 21, 2022 10:49 PM BST
Boris is going nowhere
Report lapsy pa April 21, 2022 11:23 PM BST
That depends on how much further you want to be dragged down Sont,surely can't be much more.
Report politicspunter April 22, 2022 2:41 PM BST
Christopher Hope
@christopherhope
NEW One ex-Cabinet minister gets in touch to tell me of "a groundswell of support for Jeremy Hunt amongst colleagues" which will manifest itself after May 5.
The MP says: "He's not contaminated by Boris ... He's a serious player for serious times."
Report politicspunter April 22, 2022 6:14 PM BST
Smarkets News & Politics
@SmarketsPol
·
1h
Jeremy Hunt takes over as favourite to be next Tory leader.
Report Escapee April 22, 2022 7:51 PM BST
UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.                    £177,408 Matched


Liz Truss    6.8 7 7.2   7.4   9   9.2   £22,353
        £28 £27 £6     £13 £2 £8  
Ben Wallace    8.2 8.6 8.8   9   9.4   9.6   £4,558
        £2 £24 £15     £17 £2 £100  
Jeremy Hunt    6.2 6.4 6.6   6.8   7.6   7.8   £14,826
        £11 £7 £23     £4 £10 £7  
Tom Tugendhat    7.2 7.4 7.6   7.8   8   8.2   £9,457
        £2 £12 £9     £13 £36 £50  
Penny Mordaunt    10 10.5 11   12   13.5   14.5   £5,949
        £22 £15 £18     £4 £13 £2  
Rishi Sunak    13 13.5 15.5   19   19.5   48   £66,911
        £12 £5 £3     £29 £5 £2  
Sajid Javid    14.5 15 16   17   18.5   19   £7,298
        £20 £59 £9     £5 £3 £12  
Michael Gove    17.5 20 21   23   24   25   £12,739
        £21 £3 £3     £67 £3 £25  
Nadhim Zahawi    16 16.5 19   19.5   20   28   £2,593
        £1 £2 £2     £4 £7 £2  
Dominic Raab    32 38 40   55   60   65   £6,040
        £2 £5 £10     £1 £1 £2  
Mark Harper    40 42 44   65   70   75   £1,190
        £2 £4 £2     £2 £3 £2  
Priti Patel    42 44 48   50   55   60   £5,095
        £2 £4 £50     £2 £9 £2  
Steve Barclay    40 42 44   55   60   65   £830
        £3 £19 £2     £8 £4 £2  
Steve Baker    42 44 46   65   70   75   £1,866
        £3 £2 £2     £2 £23 £1  
Kemi Badenoch    65 70 75   90   95   100   £1,019
        £3 £3 £2     £2 £2 £1  
Jacob Rees-Mogg    70 75 80   110   120   130   £1,862
        £50 £2 £3     £4 £2 £5  
Kwasi Kwarteng    85 90 95   100   120   130   £1,263
        £4 £5 £2     £2 £3 £2  
Johnny Mercer    55 60 110   140   150   160   £1,002
        £1 £2 £5     £1 £1 £2  
James Cleverly    65 70 75   120   140   150   £710
        £2 £5 £2     £1 £1 £4  
Oliver Dowden    90 95 100   150   160   170   £1,252
        £2 £2 £2     £1 £2 £5  
Tobias Ellwood    46 48 85   130   140   150   £485
        £1 £2 £3     £2 £2 £3  
Suella Braverman    40 140 150   -   -   -   £90
        £9 £4 £4              
Matt Hancock    170 180 190   490   500   690   £1,365
        £2 £3 £2     £2 £5 £2  
Alok Sharma    150 210 250   350   380   390   £333
        £4 £2 £6     £2 £2 £10  
Grant Shapps    130 140 150   230   290   300   £838
        £2 £2 £3     £2 £2 £2  
Rory Stewart    160 170 210   590   600   620   £1,395
        £2 £5 £1     £2 £2 £1  
Theresa May    85 220 230   900   970   1000   £146
        £2 £5 £2     £2 £2 £5  
Anne-Marie Trevelyan    40 90 160   440   450   460   £347
        £2 £3 £6     £5 £6 £2  
Ruth Davidson    27 190 200   270   300   1000   £724
        £2 £3 £2     £3 £3 £4  
Julian Smith    250 260 270   670   1000   -   £112
        £2 £9 £2     £2 £6      
Brandon Lewis    90 95 120   340   370   1000   £186
        £2 £2 £5     £2 £2 £6  
Robert Buckland    110 220 230   1000   -   -   £126
        £4 £2 £1     £5        
Andrea Leadsom    90 280 290   960   970   990   £239
        £4 £2 £2     £2 £10 £2  
Therese Coffey    40 42 300   1000   -   -   £261
        £5 £2 £5     £7        
Robert Jenrick    370 400 410   880   -   -   £303
        £1 £3 £3     £3        
George Eustice    200 220 230   490   550   590   £127
        £2 £2 £3     £2 £5 £2  
Will Quince    42 330 340   1000   -   -   £85
        £2 £2 £4     £2        
Nadine Dorries    75 400 410   1000   -   -   £37
        £2 £2 £7     £2        
Aaron Bell    350 370 750   -   -   -   £8
        £2 £2 £5              
Amber Rudd    710 720 730   -   -   -   £621
        £3 £2 £2              
Ranil Jayawardena    630 640 750   1000   -   -   £88
        £2 £2 £3     £3        
Amanda Milling    140 150 480   1000   -   -   £57
        £8 £7 £1     £6        
Simon Hart    10 10.5 770   -   -   -   £31
        £25 £2 £5              
Natalie Evans    42 770 780   -   -   -   £28
        £2 £2 £5              
Jesse Norman    700 710 840   -   -   -   £42
        £3 £2 £5              
Alister Jack    4.2 780 790   -   -   -   £36
        £2 £2 £4              
Gavin Williamson    160 510 520   -   -   -   £369
        £2 £2 £4              
Geoffrey Cox    420 430 1000   -   -   -   £115
        £1 £2 £7              
William Wragg    120 130 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £1 £4 £3              
Report Dr Crippen April 22, 2022 8:20 PM BST
Escapee.

I've been continuing to lay Rishi at prices between 8.6 & 10.5
My thinking is: There's very little downside as there is no quick rehabilitation for him, there's no quick route to forgiving and forgetting.


Forgiving and forgetting what?
Report Escapee April 22, 2022 8:28 PM BST
"Forgiving and forgetting what?"


Green Card, Non-Dom tax avoidance, FPN, and of course Farting on a corgi.

welcome back to planet earth, you must have been away for a few weeks.
Report Dr Crippen April 22, 2022 8:42 PM BST
I was merely making a point.

After all, who had a worse record than Boris Johnson before they became leader?

I take it you must have on another planet prior to him being elected?
Report Escapee April 22, 2022 8:57 PM BST
Sorry Dr. Crippen, my apologies for my uncalled for reference to being off planet.

I had not managed to interpret your question in the context of bJ's own sleazy past and yet amazing disregard of it by the voters. he did have Cory-bin to help though.


yes, anything is possible, but I felt 8.6-10.5 represented huge value given the Green Card-non-dom-highest-tax-since-1948 form of the runner. So I put my money up and took all I could get matched at. and as it is with betting, I may win, I may lose.

G'luck, sorry for the offence
Report Dr Crippen April 22, 2022 9:56 PM BST
No offence taken Escapee.Wink
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 23, 2022 9:22 PM BST
This is correct:
“two parliamentary inquiries — by @CommonsForeign in 2018 and the intelligence and security committee in 2020 — called for sanctions to be imposed on the oligarchs in London. The recommendations were largely ignored.”


https://t.co/eNfTNsQqaX


Is this Tom Tugenhat's hat being tossed into
the ring...
Report Escapee April 23, 2022 9:40 PM BST
Tom Tug-my-hat & Ben Wallace are both to short odds for me to add them to my portfolio in what could be a 10 year market.

Nadim Zahawi at 20's seems to short given her name and the party in question, regardless of her other qualities or not for the the job.
So, Seeing as I am going to be carrying a liability for an indeterminate amount of time, I thought I would add her as a lay, £5 matched at 20, my £5 at 19 if anyone wants it, more available on requestLaugh.


UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.                    £179,188 Matched


Liz Truss    7.2 7.4 7.6   8.4   9   9.2   £22,507
        £12 £13 £3     £40 £2 £38  
Ben Wallace    7.4 7.6 8.8   9.8   10   10.5   £4,909
        £2 £6 £5     £2 £6 £2  
Jeremy Hunt    5.9 6.2 6.4   7   7.6   7.8   £15,162
        £17 £19 £2     £3 £16 £7  
Tom Tugendhat    7.4 7.6 7.8   8.2   8.4   8.6   £9,619
        £12 £9 £6     £43 £10 £10  
Penny Mordaunt    9.2 10 10.5   11   11.5   13.5   £6,283
        £10 £14 £12     £5 £129 £13  
Rishi Sunak    15 15.5 16   17.5   18   19   £66,923
        £12 £25 £2     £5 £58 £3  
Sajid Javid    16.5 17 17.5   19.5   23   24   £7,350
        £11 £2 £3     £15 £2 £2  
Michael Gove    14 17.5 18   23   25   26   £12,832
        £2 £20 £22     £23 £25 £4  
Nadhim Zahawi    18 18.5 19   25   27   28   £2,675
        £1 £2 £5     £2 £4 £2  
Dominic Raab    38 40 44   55   60   65   £6,059
        £5 £3 £1     £2 £3 £2  
Mark Harper    48 50 55   65   70   75   £1,204
        £2 £4 £4     £1 £1 £2  
Priti Patel    44 50 55   70   75   95   £5,121
        £4 £9 £4     £2 £5 £1  
Steve Barclay    44 46 48   65   70   75   £867
        £2 £4 £2     £2 £2 £2  
Steve Baker    36 38 44   60   65   70   £1,891
        £7 £2 £3     £1 £2 £20  
Kemi Badenoch    70 80 85   95   100   130   £1,029
        £2 £2 £2     £2 £1 £2  
Jacob Rees-Mogg    80 85 90   110   120   130   £1,863
        £1 £2 £12     £4 £2 £5  
Kwasi Kwarteng    85 90 95   110   120   130   £1,274
        £4 £5 £2     £2 £4 £2  
Johnny Mercer    60 110 120   160   170   180   £1,008
        £2 £5 £2     £2 £1 £2  
James Cleverly    70 80 100   130   140   150   £719
        £4 £2 £4     £2 £2 £4  
Oliver Dowden    90 110 130   160   170   180   £1,254
        £3 £2 £1     £2 £5 £1  
Tobias Ellwood    48 85 100   130   140   150   £494
        £2 £3 £4     £3 £2 £3  
Suella Braverman    150 160 180   -   -   -   £94
        £8 £1 £4              
Matt Hancock    180 190 200   490   500   690   £1,365
        £3 £2 £3     £2 £5 £2  
Alok Sharma    100 150 250   340   350   380   £334
        £3 £2 £6     £2 £2 £2  
Grant Shapps    120 130 140   160   180   290   £846
        £3 £2 £3     £19 £2 £2  
Rory Stewart    170 210 220   590   600   620   £1,396
        £3 £1 £5     £2 £2 £1  
Theresa May    220 230 240   900   970   1000   £146
        £5 £2 £2     £2 £2 £5  
Anne-Marie Trevelyan    90 160 170   430   440   450   £347
        £2 £6 £2     £2 £5 £6  
Ruth Davidson    27 200 210   260   270   300   £725
        £2 £2 £3     £2 £3 £3  
Julian Smith    280 300 340   670   1000   -   £112
        £2 £1 £1     £2 £6      
Brandon Lewis    120 140 150   320   330   340   £186
        £6 £1 £2     £2 £2 £5  
Robert Buckland    110 140 240   1000   -   -   £126
        £5 £2 £3     £5        
Andrea Leadsom    90 280 290   960   970   990   £239
        £3 £1 £2     £2 £10 £2  
Therese Coffey    100 110 300   1000   -   -   £262
        £1 £4 £2     £6        
Robert Jenrick    60 460 530   1000   -   -   £317
        £1 £2 £4     £3        
George Eustice    220 240 250   490   550   780   £128
        £3 £2 £3     £1 £5 £2  
Will Quince    340 350 360   1000   -   -   £85
        £2 £2 £2     £2        
Nadine Dorries    75 410 420   1000   -   -   £37
        £2 £2 £7     £1        
Aaron Bell    370 760 770   -   -   -   £8
        £3 £2 £4              
Amber Rudd    710 720 730   -   -   -   £621
        £2 £2 £2              
Ranil Jayawardena    750 760 770   1000   -   -   £88
        £2 £2 £3     £3        
Amanda Milling    140 150 480   1000   -   -   £57
        £8 £7 £1     £6        
Simon Hart    10.5 470 770   -   -   -   £31
        £2 £1 £6              
Natalie Evans    470 780 790   -   -   -   £28
        £1 £2 £5              
Jesse Norman    700 710 840   -   -   -   £42
        £3 £2 £5              
Alister Jack    470 580 800   -   -   -   £36
        £1 £2 £6              
Gavin Williamson    190 530 540   -   -   -   £370
        £1 £2 £3              
Geoffrey Cox    420 430 1000   -   -   -   £115
        £1 £2 £8              
William Wragg    120 140 1000   -   -   -   £0
        £1 £2 £9              
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 23, 2022 10:34 PM BST
Nadhim is a bloke, he's education sec, and did vaxxes.

A boring bluffer,

Hey ho.

Free monets for you, imo.
Report Escapee April 23, 2022 10:40 PM BST
"Nadhim is a bloke"
there you go, clear evidence that I'm a fool playing a game I'm out of my depth in.

Laugh

Still, the amount of times I've seen a fool win big at a game of skill, all is not hopeless for me.
Report Escapee April 23, 2022 10:46 PM BST
I think I was confusing their gender with the recent long drawn out Iranian born woman who we were urged to have massive sympathy for and outrage at her detention in her country of birth for "Teaching them journalism" (as Boris once put it).
Report Escapee April 23, 2022 10:48 PM BST
*long drawn out saga of the 'british',
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 23, 2022 10:50 PM BST
nazanin zaghari-ratcliffe



Not that for off if she wasn't married to
Harry Potter.
Report Cider April 23, 2022 10:50 PM BST
He founded YouGov.
Report Dotchinite April 23, 2022 10:54 PM BST
Just because he was a bloke yesterday its wrong to assume that he is still currently identifying as one today.
Report Cider April 23, 2022 10:54 PM BST
Doesn't feel like a realistic challenger to me, but he's recently backed a few small c conservative stances on certain issues, like conceding that closing schools for covid was a mistake.
Report Escapee April 23, 2022 10:57 PM BST
He founded YouGov.

that sounds like he has the British thing through and through, good on him.

He should change his name to Charles Windsor-Bath and he'd double his approval rating in the tory heartlands.
Report Escapee April 25, 2022 11:37 AM BST
Where have all the Rishi backers gone? LaughLaugh

there's £100's wanting to lay him and only £13 wanting to back him all the way up to 990Crazy


UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.                    £180,311 Matched


Liz Truss    7.2 7.4 7.6   8   8.2   8.4   £22,540
        £71 £5 £2     £6 £53 £47  
Ben Wallace    8.8 9 9.4   9.6   9.8   10   £5,038
        £5 £20 £60     £6 £6 £26  
Jeremy Hunt    6.8 7 7.2   7.8   8   8.2   £15,302
        £6 £16 £2     £11 £51 £8  
Tom Tugendhat    7.4 7.6 7.8   8   8.2   8.4   £9,680
        £12 £9 £62     £10 £39 £10  
Penny Mordaunt    9.4 9.6 10   10.5   11   11.5   £6,498
        £10 £2 £54     £18 £58 £32  
Rishi Sunak    16.5 17 18.5   19.5   46   48   £67,177
        £6 £18 £35     £5 £5 £3  
Sajid Javid    18.5 19 19.5   21   22   23   £7,390
        £10 £6 £6     £31 £10 £5  
Michael Gove    19.5 20 21   23   25   26   £12,876
        £21 £2 £4     £22 £25 £4  
Nadhim Zahawi    19 19.5 20   23   24   25   £2,728
        £31 £10 £2     £26 £2 £4  
Dominic Raab    32 38 40   50   55   60   £6,066
        £2 £5 £5     £26 £2 £3  
Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 12:17 PM BST
His chance has gone, by the looks of it. A new poll of Conservative members approval ratings has him bottom, where he used to be top.
Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 12:54 PM BST
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2022/04/our-cabinet-league-table-wallace-top-again-patel-up-johnson-down-and-sunak-in-the-red.html
.
Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 1:07 PM BST
Some of us on here are on Stephen Barclay at 200s. I am also on Ben Wallace at 100s. I am not very keen on any candidate in particular.
Report PorcupineorPineapple April 25, 2022 1:13 PM BST
Sticking my neck on the block but I think Johnson's gone in the next two weeks. Seems to be growing discontent on the benches and that's what does it ultimately. He thought he'd battled out the partygate storm but it's clear there's more to come as well as Sue Grey's report so it'll just be a year of distractions and headlines. Bin him off, draw a line and the red wall MP's and others have a far better chance of holding their seats.
Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 1:15 PM BST
Sorry, Correction- That is for next Prime Minister market.
Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 1:16 PM BST

Apr 25, 2022 -- 1:13PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


Sticking my neck on the block but I think Johnson's gone in the next two weeks. Seems to be growing discontent on the benches and that's what does it ultimately. He thought he'd battled out the partygate storm but it's clear there's more to come as well as Sue Grey's report so it'll just be a year of distractions and headlines. Bin him off, draw a line and the red wall MP's and others have a far better chance of holding their seats.


Agreed.

Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 1:59 PM BST
Rumour control says that 46 letters are in to Graham Brady so far.
Report lapsy pa April 25, 2022 4:08 PM BST
^Yes,i hear that they need 8 too,Baker allegedly leading the hardliners and rallying red wallers.

If so not sure that is good news with the ERG ties though the whole saga(getting letters) is of course correct.
Report politicspunter April 25, 2022 4:10 PM BST
Labour will be gutted if Johnson gets dumped, he is Labours best MP.
Report lapsy pa April 25, 2022 4:52 PM BST
Seems only a matter of time,Sue Gray,May elections,another partygate fine,Sinn Fein majority in NI,worsening economic news,all in play.
Report Cider April 25, 2022 5:02 PM BST
If you got what you wanted, and the 15% threshold was reached, how would you then price up the confidence vote ?
Report Cider April 25, 2022 5:04 PM BST
Better the devil you know, I feel, for Tory MPs. People who want Johnson out are pinning their hopes on a resignation.
Report lapsy pa April 25, 2022 5:09 PM BST
It depends on what swung the extra i think Cider, was it say a major transgression,i think he has enough in around him to think it would be long odds against he would lose the vote. 1/5 stay on,4/1 gone at a guess.
Report lapsy pa April 25, 2022 5:17 PM BST
I have misgivings with Baker seemingly leading this as well,i know he has nothing to do re next leader but i prefer if this was coming from someone else. The devil you know is looking to postpone import checks on July 1st,that has to be.
Report Cider April 25, 2022 5:27 PM BST
The irony would be indeed be significant if the centre right got hold of the party from the liberalists Bojo and Carrie.

I mentioned before on here, if you put the 'spartans' with the 2019 intake, it's a fair portion of the party.
Report Cider April 25, 2022 5:32 PM BST
ditch net zero, ditch green tax, ditch vat on domestic fuel. for a start.
Report lfc1971 April 25, 2022 5:39 PM BST
If the Tory party are going to change leader
Then it must be on their terms
It’s not a good look to be pressured into it
by other parties .
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 25, 2022 5:43 PM BST
Lots of the seats in locals were contested in 2018.

That was a decent time for Labour before the attacks
on corbyn.

39/40 each for lab and con in polls back then.

So swing in these seats likely to be smaller
this year, than in 23/24/25!

Interesting to see if swing is over 3%...
Report mafeking April 26, 2022 1:14 PM BST
just facing the confidence vote is the beginning of the end. no one's ever recovered to win an election. how can you expect to win one when presumably well north of 100 of your own side can't stand you ?
Report politicspunter April 26, 2022 1:23 PM BST
Theresa May survived one but it was clear her days were numbered, so packed it in shortly afterwards. Boris could do likewise.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 26, 2022 1:54 PM BST
I think Johnson will be more difficult to shift than trump.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 26, 2022 1:55 PM BST
Report Escapee April 26, 2022 4:15 PM BST
"Some of us on here are on Stephen Barclay at 200s. I am also on Ben Wallace at 100s. I am not very keen on any candidate in particular."

Nice prices PP


UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.                    £181,197 Matched



Ben Wallace    9 9.4 9.6   10   10.5   11   £5,202
        £19 £8 £2     £46 £9 £51  
Steve Barclay    42 44 50   65   70   75   £887
        £19 £2 £6     £10 £2 £2  
Report politicspunter April 26, 2022 4:18 PM BST
I corrected myself up thread. Those prices are for next PM but it might come to the same thing anyway.
Report Escapee May 27, 2022 1:27 PM BST

Escapee

11 Apr 22 18:36
I've been continuing to lay Rishi at prices between 8.6 & 10.5
My thinking is: There's very little downside as there is no quick rehabilitation for him, there's no quick route to forgiving and forgetting.

If my thinking is correct, I am most likely just carrying liability until the next cabinet reshuffle or he Jumps and I can green out the liability as the market adjusts.


This hasn't aged as well as I expected Sad
He drifted out to 20, spiked out to 40, then came in from 20 to 16 over the last 3 weeks.
Yesterday he did his fictional £10billion giveaway (He took £21billion in spring budget and his 25% levy on oil profits is given straight back to them with 90% tax relief on investment. I.E. we pay for all Oil Company capitol costs, they keep the profit)

So now he's back into 9.8-10.5 and my lays are break even.l
I wasn't expecting this till at least October.



UK - Party Leaders -- Next Conservative Leader.        
51 Runners            £194,999 Matched   



              106.7%   93.2%             
Liz Truss    7.2 7.4 7.6   8   8.4   8.6   £23,764
        £18 £10 £2     £5 £19 £13  
Ben Wallace    12 12.5 13   14   14.5   15   £6,195
        £50 £50 £11     £11 £8 £2  
Jeremy Hunt    7.4 7.6 7.8   8   8.2   8.4   £17,405
        £70 £9 £2     £51 £5 £3  
Tom Tugendhat    8.2 8.4 8.6   8.8   9   9.2   £10,481
        £20 £16 £2     £20 £55 £3  
Penny Mordaunt    9.8 10 10.5   11.5   12   12.5   £8,061
        £2 £8 £3     £10 £25 £3  
Rishi Sunak    9.4 9.6 9.8   10.5   11   11.5   £69,501
        £27 £7 £10     £19 £5 £23  
Sajid Javid    20 21 22   25   26   27   £8,076
        £3 £2 £1     £7 £28 £17  
Michael Gove    22 23 24   25   26   27   £13,189
        £5 £5 £1     £28 £4 £2  
Nadhim Zahawi    20 21 22   23   24   26   £3,266
        £2 £7 £2     £32 £29 £2  
Dominic Raab    38 40 42   55   60   70   £6,318
        £32 £2 £2     £6 £3 £3  
Mark Harper    55 60 65   75   80   120   £1,288
        £5 £2 £2     £5 £1 £22  
Priti Patel    32 34 36   48   50   55   £5,449
        £9 £20 £3     £5 £2 £15  
Steve Barclay    44 46 48   70   90   120   £1,062
        £2 £2 £37     £2 £13 £2  
Steve Baker    34 40 42   50   60   65   £2,099
        £22 £5 £2     £3 £1 £4  
Kemi Badenoch    70 75 80   110   120   130   £1,122
        £1 £6 £3     £21 £2 £2  
Kwasi Kwarteng    55 60 65   85   90   95   £1,407
        £3 £2 £2     £3 £2 £3  
Tobias Ellwood    70 75 80   90   95   100   £601
        £2 £4 £2     £8 £2 £10  
David Frost    38 50 55   100   150   170   £2,049
        £23 £21 £2     £2 £2 £2  
  plus 33 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100 
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 30, 2022 2:21 PM BST
Rishi Sunak is quietly creeping back up the next Tory leader market.

https://t.co/zl2Xt4bbHM
Report politicspunter June 3, 2022 7:24 PM BST
https://twitter.com/Mosley6Graham/status/1442493410259132417
.

Can anyone name this Conservative Leadership contender saying that the monarchy should be dumped?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 3, 2022 8:02 PM BST
Lol,

https://youtu.be/UCY6flzgfA4

..
Report politicspunter June 3, 2022 8:13 PM BST
Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 10:53 PM BST
Cabinet minister claims @OliverDowden resigned as Conservative party chair to “run Rishi‘s campaign” - The Times
Report Escapee June 24, 2022 11:49 PM BST
"Cabinet minister claims @OliverDowden resigned as Conservative party chair to “run Rishi‘s campaign” - The Times"

I friggin hope not, I've laid Mr green card tax avoiding Rishi for over a bagAngry
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