Old Bexley and Sidcup by election.

""Jackbooted tory" I doubt if there are more than a handful of tories that wouldn't feel perfectly at home in the lib dems or Blairs labour.

https://twitter.com/danfrancis02/status/1463583634284240908
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Decent effort here by Labour by the looks of it.

https://www.politics.co.uk/in-depth/2021/11/26/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-elec...

Dunno if the tories are worried, but i am a little bit as a little over exposed on them, shall see what happens i guess

The tories will likely (not certain) win here. They are leaking votes left right and centre in national opinion polls but not particularly to Labour. You could see Reform UK and even the Greens picking up votes from disillusioned tories but not enough switching to Labour as to alter the previous results.

I will win a little if the tories win, level if Labour win, the rest don't count.

https://smarkets.com/event/42493837/politics/uk/by-elections/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-election-winning-margin
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New betting market.

Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election: Winning Margin

Lay over 10k at 4.5?

Just going to try and scribble to try and get a guesstimate

My scribbles have a guesstimate of tories winning by 4627 so too close to the under 5000  or 5000-10,000 option but well in with the over 10,000 option.

Nov 28, 2021 -- 5:29PM, keyboard_line wrote:

Dunno if the tories are worried, but i am a little bit as a little over exposed on them, shall see what happens i guess

Pretty sure you are safe enough. Don't fall out with me if I'm wrong

https://smarkets.com/event/42467041/politics/uk/by-elections/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-election-reform-uk-vote-share
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Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election: Reform UK vote share

Toss up ?

A couple of new markets on here.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.191756893
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Conservative vote share

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.191756895
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Group winner

I wont be falling be falling out with anyone, not even myself. I think the mistake i made with this market was not concentrating on the labour odds more which had more space, but hey, not to worry...interesting new markets been put up there

That Group winner market. If Reform UK are to be believed, they have that one wrapped up.

They certainly have done much more canvassing in the constituency than the other two options put together.

my constituency and i havent heard from reform. lots of recycling material aka election brochures, half of which is from the tories. a bit surprised they feel it necessary to put in so much effort into such a safe seat. i expect the tories to win with a reduced majority on a terrible turnout.

Nov 30, 2021 -- 7:07PM, jollyswagman wrote:

my constituency and i havent heard from reform. lots of recycling material aka election brochures, half of which is from the tories. a bit surprised they feel it necessary to put in so much effort into such a safe seat. i expect the tories to win with a reduced majority on a terrible turnout.

I agree. Turnout is always a toughie to guess but 505 could be somewhere in the ball park I guess?

50%

my clueless guess would go under 50%

Ok, thanks. Always useful in trying to work out final tally.

spoilt ballot paper for me as sadly binface not standing

There is a loony though. Infact..

A lot of money today with the bookies/exchange for Reform UK, both in percentage market and Group betting.

https://smarkets.com/event/42493837/politics/uk/by-elections/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-election-winning-margin
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I was having another look at this market. If there is a turnout of 50%, that is 33052 votes minus rejected/spoiled ballot papers. Suppose the tories get 50%, that is 16526. For them to win by 10,000+, Labour would have to get less than 6526 (16526-10,000) which is equivalent to less than 19.74% of the vote. That just seems unlikely?

Interesting by elections.

Whatever the results.

They are strange and interesting from a betting point of view. In the first one tomorrow, the market has been incredibly solid and steady, virtually no fluctuations of note during the campaign. In North Shropshire however, it has been extremely volatile and continues to be so daily. It's difficult to know when it's going to end but there comes a time when surely it will become clear that there is no value in the heavily gambled LibDem price?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.191756893
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Difficult to see the top and bottom options in play tomorrow but stranger things have happened I guess.

A nice sunny day for this here. My parents always believed that a sunny day favoured the Labour Party and a rainy, windy one favoured the tories. Their reasoning was that tories had more money, had cars and could drive to the polling stations. Now that may have been true in days gone by but in the world of postal ballots, probably not as valid. However, a good day weather wise can certainly have an effect on turnout so perhaps that may be helpful to the Labour Party. I don't think they can win here but cutting the tory majority significantly will be seen as a good result.

I think good weather would favour the Tories as so many of their voters don't work and might enjoy a stroll to the polling station on a sunny day.

Yes, fair point, certainly regarding their core elderly vote. For folks that work, who are considering voting for any party, the colder darker nights isn't an encouragement to go out and vote after coming home and having your dinner. Boris and the tory hierarchy are certain that a winter general election favours them so I wouldn't be in the least surprised to see one at that time of the year again, say November/December 2023.

Some of the posters going the rounds on social media regarding the election...

https://twitter.com/lunaperla/status/1466353434127384576/photo/1
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https://twitter.com/callmejazzman/status/1466350325741334538/photo/2
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https://twitter.com/callmejazzman/status/1466350325741334538/photo/1
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I've always thought polling should be on weekend to allow more opportunity for working people to vote. Tories would always block it though.

Dec 2, 2021 -- 11:00AM, A_T wrote:

I've always thought polling should be on weekend to allow more opportunity for working people to vote. Tories would always block it though.

I totally agree. A Saturday or Sunday poll is by far the most popular day in most countries.

Tory MPs and men in grey coats will be watching this election and the one in a couple of weeks in North Shropshire closely. It was the Eastbourne by election result in 1990 that eventually got Thatcher chucked.

Labour could have chosen to hold a weekend vote when in power.

They didn't.

tories 1:09

Apparently it's bitterly cold and some sleet falling. Possible very low turnout.

Snowflakes?

The lower the turnout, the less likely the tories are to winning by 10K+.

https://twitter.com/Matt_Morrow88/status/1466488600766394377
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It's dark and freezing. Would you leave the safety of your nice warm home to go and vote in what many consider to be a formality?

"It's dark and freezing."

like your soul, mate

I usually vote after tea, I always vote,
and nearly always walk in polling
Station.

But I know how reluctant some folk
are.

Tories used to organise cars
up here to get folk to polls.

When I was at school there was a local haulage firm whose boss was paying every one of his workforce a fiver if they voted tory. I guess every one of them did

****g tories

The cars one is a throwback to the fifties and sixties when it was considered a decent vote winner. Dad said he knew folks that got a lift to the polls every election in a tory car...and voted Labour

There is a brilliant Rab C Nesbitt election episode which is a good laugh if you can track it down

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0682196/
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It's this one.

My dad's boss used to get all
staff to drive company cars all
day to take folk to polls.

Guessing it's late 60s.

Office more or less closed,

Tories never won seat, nor came close.

Dad enjoyed it.

My parents were very political. A favourite of my dads was, when the candidate/canvasser of the opposition knocked on our door, to try and keep them talking for as long as possible, then after a while, introduce them all to my mum to speak to for ages, before my dad would reappear and say he had a couple of further things he wished clarified

My dad was, and mam voted
for whoever he chose.

She wasn't bothered, lol.

When I got older she got
involved in locals woman's
group, "young mothers" were
big in 70s.

There she met a couple of local
councillors, but was not
interested which side they
were, she just roped them in
to help the young mothers group.

young mothers group, superb . i have not heard that term in donkeys, im sure i can remember my mum talking about that

One of my friends, in days gone by, discovered that when a lot of the single mums in the area got their child benefit on a Monday, they went to a pokey bar that had a karaoke night. He  regularly went there alone, smart and sober, resulting in a few knockbacks, plenty of claps at it and many home runs before they got fed up with him turning up.

that was you wasn't it mate

https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1466476451255967745/photo/1
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Ha ha, I put it on the other thread.

A pish up in a lockdown.






“Whilst working late one evening before Xmas, myself and several hundred Conservative colleagues became trapped in a function room with nothing to survive on but alcoholic drinks. I also broke the button on the room’s stereo device and was unable to switch off the Xmas music ..”

And while the rest of us played pass the parcel, Matt Hancock was enjoying a spirited game of hide the sausage

And my trousers buckle broke at the same time as I was making photocopies of my expenses.

It was an eye test using alcohol and nibbles to see if it was safe to go home. The test lasted several hours.

I spilt red wine all over Carries couch and I invited many of my colleagues round to see if by splashing loads of white wine on it, it would be ok.

Johnson has almost killed satire, he is so useless and corrupt.

Polls closed.

1.02 tories now being matched.

and 24.0 Labour.

had a few quid matched on labour at 15 and 18 at 7.01 AM today, which i was surprised to see when i got up today, had a fiver sitting on them at 25 for most of the day unmatched which i cancelled when polls closed

gonna try and lay off the tories at 1.01 myself to save any worries, och but someone just got in ahead of me with 500

21.0 available, I would stick some up for about 28.0, good chance it will be matched.

Of course , laying the tories at 1.01/1.02 is better.

well i havent got the news on, cant see anything online, so not sure what if anything is guiding the market just now, other than if a surprise was thought likely it wouldve come up on a google search

Someone is nibbling at my 30s Green on the group market. I would laugh if they went in, which isn't impossible.

there will probably be murmurings on question time, though i think im just gonna stick watching the snooker instead

im £3.07 up on that market whoever wins

ive not the faintest why reform are so short, money will probably have it right i suppose, but it doesnt seem nice

Some folks believe Reform could get as much as 20%. I haven't a clue why they think that.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1466539074198687745/photo/1
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Interesting election leaflet.

Rumour control says a low to a very low turnout.

Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election, turnout:

21,788 votes cast (34%)

My source thinks the Tories have probably won.

That's a really poor turnout but on a cold winters day, not totally unexpected.

Brokenshaw got 29, 786

I am fairly confident my under 10K tory margin is going to collect

CON: 51.5% (-13.1)
LAB: 30.9% (+7.4)
REFUK: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 3.8% (+0.6)
LDEM: 3.0% (-5.3)
EDEM: 1.2% (+1.2)
UKIP: 0.8% (+0.8)
R-EU: 0.7% (+0.7)
HP: 0.5% (+0.5)
CPA: 0.5% (+0.0)
MRLP: 0.4% (+0.4)

21,787 votes.
English Dems - 271
Labour - 6,711.
Conservative - 11,189.
Rejoin EU - 151
Heritage - 116.
UKIP - 184.
LD - 647.
Green - 830.
Reform - 1,342.
CPA - 108.
OMRLP - 94.
Majority - 4,478.

10.3% swing.

Tories get over 50%

Under 10k maj, under 5k too.

Polling from parties looks to have been bang on.

Honkingly bad LibDem result.

Lab got 60% of their gen elect vote out


Lib dems dutifully voted Lab, or stayed home.

You would assume that the Reform 6.6% came directly from the tories.

English Democrats 1.2% and UKIP 0.8% also I suppose.

I'd think so, or ex UKIP /referendum ,whatever, who didn't stand
a candidate in 2019.

Labour will be ok ish with that result but were probably hoping to be nearer 35%.

politicspunter • November 29, 2021 11:34 AM GMT
My scribbles have a guesstimate of tories winning by 4627 so too close to the under 5000  or 5000-10,000 option but well in with the over 10,000 option.

Not a bad stab at that one if I say so myself

Well done sir. Reward for hard work.

Well done sir. Reward for hard work.

Tory vote didn't come out,obviously not sinking enough dinghies for them in Kent..

Dec 3, 2021 -- 2:39AM, epicurean wrote:

Well done sir. Reward for hard work.

Thank you.

It's an excellent stab.

Thank you.

Pressure on now for next one!