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politicspunter
15 Oct 21 12:21
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 33,882 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
By election caused by the sad passing of James Brokenshire.  Normally a solid Conservative seat once represented by Edward Heath.
Pause Switch to Standard View Old Bexley and Sidcup by election.
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Report politicspunter October 15, 2021 12:22 PM BST
https://smarkets.com/event/42418961/politics/uk/by-elections/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-election
.

Betting market.
Report politicspunter October 30, 2021 4:05 PM BST
https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1454402834703822852
.

Reform UK or whatever they call themselves this week (Farage gang) candidate.
Report politicspunter October 30, 2021 4:06 PM BST
bob evans
@thebobevans
·
3h
Replying to
@reformparty_uk

@Nigel_Farage
and
@TiceRichard
I’m confident that the electorate will send you the same message they did to Farage time and time again; you would do yourself and the rest of us a big favour if you’d actually listen to them and go away.
Report 1st time poster October 31, 2021 8:40 AM GMT
he must be a rabid brexiteer easily corrupted tory who they seem desperate to get in to commons hasnt he already lost what looked like a shoo in, in another seat
Report politicspunter October 31, 2021 8:51 AM GMT
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havering_and_Redbridge_(London_Assembly_constituency)
.

This was his most recent attempt to get elected, coming 5th with 3.1% of the vote.

Why bother standing?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 31, 2021 11:48 AM GMT
Is binface standing?

Make your vote Count!
Report politicspunter October 31, 2021 12:05 PM GMT
Hopefully! Grin
Report politicspunter November 8, 2021 6:02 PM GMT
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523149
.

Market on here now.
Report politicspunter November 9, 2021 6:25 PM GMT
Con
Lab
LD
Green
Reform UK
Eng Dem
UKIP
Heritage
Rejoin EU
Christian People's Alliance
OMRLP

(11 candidates)
Report politicspunter November 9, 2021 7:14 PM GMT
Elaine Cheeseman - English Democrats. Contested here in 2010.

Daniel Francis - Labour. Councillor in Belvedere ward in borough and in the Erith & Thamesmead constituency.

Louie French - Conservative. Councillor in Falconwood & Welling ward in the constituency. Contested Eltham in 2019.

Richard Hewison - Rejoin EU. Stood for Mayor of London and at the top of the party's London Assembly list in 2021.

David Kurten - Heritage Party. Stood for Sidcup ward in 2018 (for Ukip) and for Mayor of London and at the top of the Heritage Party's London Assembly list in 2021. Also stood for Camberwell & Peckham in 2015, Castle Point in 2017, Lewisham East in 2018 by-election and Bognor Regis & Littlehampton in 2019 (all for Ukip).

John Poynton - Ukip. Stood for Ealing Southall in 2015 & 2017 and was 7 on the party's London Assembly list in 2021.

Simone Reynolds - Lib Dem. Stood here in 2019 & for Sidcup ward in 2018. Stood in Bexleyheath & Crayford in 2017.

Jonathan Rooks - Green. Stood here in 2010 & for Sidcup ward in 2018. Stood for Longlands ward in 2021 by-election.

Richard Tice - RefUK. Stood at top of the party's London Assembly list and for Havering & Redbridge Assembly constituency in 2021. Elected MEP for Eastern region in 2019 and stood for Hartlepool in 2019 (when the party was then called Brexit Party).

Carol Margaret Valinejad - CPA. Stood here in 2019 and was fourth on the party's London Assembly list in 2021.

Mad Mike Young - OMRLP. Stood in Sittingbourne & Sheppey 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019. Also stood for Sheppey division in 2017, Sheppey Central ward in 2019 and was 3 on the party list in South Wales East in the then Welsh Assembly in 2016.
Report politicspunter November 9, 2021 8:25 PM GMT
Three racists, a loony, the god squad, four no hopers plus labour and tory candidates.
Report TimmyRiggins November 10, 2021 1:33 AM GMT
Used to be some good boozers around Bexleyheath and Welling.
Report LoyalHoncho November 10, 2021 2:32 AM GMT
Yet another fine post from politics punter offering excellent factual info. on current political events, and no childish cartoons in sight.  Thanks pp.
Report politicspunter November 12, 2021 11:29 AM GMT
https://smarkets.com/event/42467041/politics/uk/by-elections/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-election-reform-uk-vote-share
.

New market. What share of the vote will Reform UK receive?
Report politicspunter November 12, 2021 11:30 AM GMT
https://smarkets.com/event/42467003/politics/uk/by-elections/old-bexley-and-sidcup-by-election-conservative-vote-share
.

New market. What share of the vote will Conservatives receive?
Report politicspunter November 13, 2021 4:01 PM GMT
Boris was there yesterday and today it's the turn of Richy Sunak and Theresa May. Surely the tories shouldn't have any concerns about losing this seat, they have a huge majority.
Report politicspunter November 17, 2021 9:01 PM GMT
Matt Hancock canvassing for Louie French, Conservative Candidate, in #OldBexleyandSidcup
Report politicspunter November 18, 2021 8:02 AM GMT
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1461003564260761604
.

If they are trying to lose, they are going the right way about it.
Report LoyalHoncho November 18, 2021 8:41 PM GMT
I do wish people would stop calling this clown "Boris" as if he is a family friend of very high standing.  He is a con man, a snake oil salesman and mountebank of the first order who has not a qualm about lying to us all to achieve any of his personal aims.  I could imagine Blondie of The G, the B and the Ugly spitting tobaacy on his dirty white suit!
Report politicspunter November 18, 2021 8:43 PM GMT
It was the Outlaw Josey Wales but your point is made Grin
Report Cider November 18, 2021 8:47 PM GMT
I prefer BoJo
Report keyboard_line November 18, 2021 11:09 PM GMT
is there no polls on this one, google search has failed me

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Old%20Bexle...
Report politicspunter November 18, 2021 11:11 PM GMT
Nope. Might be one yet, a couple of weeks to go.
Report politicspunter November 18, 2021 11:11 PM GMT
Although I think a poll in North Shropshire is more likely.
Report keyboard_line November 18, 2021 11:12 PM GMT
ok cheers, was thinking if there was youd be all over it
Report keyboard_line November 18, 2021 11:12 PM GMT
well thats the more exciting one i suppose
Report politicspunter November 18, 2021 11:14 PM GMT
It's tough to see Labour turning over the tories in Old Bexley.
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 10:52 AM GMT
If Labour do respectfully here and the LibDems do badly, expect it to have an effect on the prices for North Shropshire.
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 6:16 PM GMT
This looks significant. There was a massive tory campaign out here today and tonight they have been backed from 1.15 to 1.07. Private polling?
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 7:40 PM GMT
maybe folk just removed their tory lays after you declared labour unlikely to turn tories over, i mean, what other info is there to go on Grin
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 7:51 PM GMT
On the ground stuff I guess. If you look at national opinion polls, the tories are leaking votes but they aren't really leaking them in any great number and they aren't all going to Labour, far from it. Labour are gaining some votes, mostly from LibDems, which will help a little but their task here looks simply enormous.
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 7:54 PM GMT
i mean the guy died, so nothing controversial, but i suppose it is a by election so maybe they are short, but havent heard / read anything of a movement in the area, so nothing to seem that it wont go to form

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Old%20Bexley%20and%20Sidcup
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 7:58 PM GMT
I will try a ball park estimate at ...

Con 50%
Lab 35%
Others 15%

I could be miles out but it's hard to see the tories losing.
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 8:03 PM GMT
seems reasonable, turnout
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 8:04 PM GMT
hmm didnt seem to like < sign will try again
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 8:05 PM GMT
turnout < 42% as another guess that could be miles out, surely couldnt be much higher, probably lower
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 20, 2021 8:09 PM GMT
Why are lib dems 360?

Are they doing no canvassing?
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 8:18 PM GMT
it seems to be a bit of a mystery as to the campaigning and/or effectiveness of that in this seat...maybe its because im the only person that thinks voting libe dem may be barely better than not voting at all, though even thats dubious
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 8:18 PM GMT
They are. Their candidate and a few pals. She looks a little like a primary school headteacher that you would have to report to if not doing your homework. Another possible is one of the characters from the opening scene of the Scottish play.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 20, 2021 8:19 PM GMT
Tories like witches
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 8:20 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/SimRey14/status/1461715633331187713/photo/1
.

Here she is.
Report LoyalHoncho November 20, 2021 8:21 PM GMT
Kenneth Connor and Hugh Paddick in Blackadder the Third.  Pure gold!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 20, 2021 8:35 PM GMT
That's a bit harsh pp.
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 8:49 PM GMT

Nov 20, 2021 -- 2:35PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


That's a bit harsh pp.


Perhaps a cross between Miss Trunchbull and Miss Jean Brodie ?

Report LoyalHoncho November 20, 2021 8:53 PM GMT
Or maybe a Cold War female villain from a Bond film?
Report LoyalHoncho November 20, 2021 8:55 PM GMT
Lotte Lenya.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 20, 2021 8:58 PM GMT
School mistress, deffo.

Retired secretary, maybe
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 9:03 PM GMT
https://www.libdems.org.uk/simone-reynolds-ppc
.

Apology required from yours truly here. What a lovely lady Grin
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
in the interest of total unfairness, there are two other ladies running in this contest

introducing Carol Valinejad
http://croydonconstitutionalists.uk/carol-valinejad-cpa/

and elaine cheeseman, awww
https://www.justitiachambers.co.uk/elaine
Report politicspunter November 20, 2021 9:12 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/CheesemanElaine/status/1461475402845720579/photo/1
.
Report keyboard_line November 20, 2021 10:08 PM GMT
so shes soliciting photographic email responses to enquiries@englishdemocrats.party

as she said
'please, thats all you need to do'

indeed, please, please do
Report 1st time poster November 20, 2021 10:28 PM GMT
like olly need to leave the tory,s where they are,watching joihnsoin with the wonky shopping trolley is comedy gold
3 more u turns in coming one early next week just 4 days after policy announce
1, social care bill
2, article 16
3,northern rail
the true blue tory,s getting pushed about by the new recruits all going to end in tears one way or another
Report politicspunter November 21, 2021 12:41 PM GMT
970.0 LibDems being matched here. I guess that they are not making any effort at all? It makes a mockery of our democratic system though. If it was based on PR, every vote would count.
Report politicspunter November 21, 2021 7:40 PM GMT
According to someone who was canvassing here today it will be a solid tory hold with a reduced majority. Chance of Reform UK coming third behind Labour and in front of the LibDems.
Report politicspunter November 21, 2021 11:31 PM GMT
Tories are 1.1. That would be a 10% tax free return on your money in eleven days.
Report politicspunter November 23, 2021 8:41 AM GMT
Richard Tice
@TiceRichard
· 1h
Boris now liability on doors of Old Bexley & Sidcup as many lifelong Tory voters say never again until he is gone. This is why Tory cabinet members flooding constituency to avoid losing safe seat. Voters furious over illegal immigration across Channel & failure to control borders

Ok, this guy is obviously biased but what he says is has a big chunk of truth.
Report politicspunter November 23, 2021 8:44 AM GMT
Siobhan Benita
@SiobhanBenita
· 21h
A reminder that if you vote for Boris Johnson because you find him hilarious, the rest of the world is laughing at us, not with us, because of this clown. 
#JohnsonOut
Report Giuseppe November 23, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
not sure anyone who understand the covid figures across europe is laughing at him
Report politicspunter November 23, 2021 9:30 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/danfrancis02/status/1463211006939779074
.

A really good, local, Labour candidate. However, this looks tough to win for them.
Report politicspunter November 23, 2021 9:31 PM GMT
If the reason the by election here was because Owen Paterson had resigned, Labour would have gone close, very close.
Report LoyalHoncho November 24, 2021 1:26 AM GMT
The trouble with getting rid of Johnson is it would only usher in another Jackbooted Tory.  Heaven help us if Rees Mogg or Michael Gove ever got in.
Keep Johnson for the time being please.  Most of his initiatives end up getting scrapped anyway.
A bridge to Northern Ireland?  rotflmao.
Report Corky November 24, 2021 4:53 PM GMT
""Jackbooted tory" Grin I doubt if there are more than a handful of tories that wouldn't feel perfectly at home in the lib dems or Blairs labour.
Report politicspunter November 25, 2021 10:12 AM GMT
https://twitter.com/danfrancis02/status/1463583634284240908
.

Decent effort here by Labour by the looks of it.
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