Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
politicspunter
06 Aug 21 15:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 15,256 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Lots of interesting markets on all the exchanges regarding this one. Some good value bets to be found.
Pause Switch to Standard View 2021 German Federal election
Show More
Loading...
Report saddo August 20, 2021 9:07 PM BST
politicspunter 20 Aug 21 17:49 
But incredibly profitable. Best this year, so far Grin



................................

Have the posts containing your selections been removed?
Report politicspunter August 20, 2021 9:12 PM BST
I was not aware that any of my selections were posted on this thread?
Report politicspunter August 20, 2021 9:39 PM BST
Soder price shortening by the minute, 40s available at bookies this morning, last matched at 7.0 on here.
Report politicspunter August 20, 2021 9:40 PM BST
I wonder if they have decided to chuck Laschet before it is too late?
Report politicspunter August 21, 2021 10:08 PM BST
Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 22% (-3)
SPD-S&D: 22% (+2)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (-1)
FDP-RE: 13% (+1)
AfD-ID: 12% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 7%

+/- vs. 9-13 August 2021

Fieldwork: 16-20 August 2021
Sample size: 1,352

SDP draw level.
Report politicspunter August 22, 2021 4:12 PM BST
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1480190/Angela-Merkel-SPD-german-election-2021-latest-polls-EVG
.

The Daily Express, always spot on. No wait... Laugh
Report politicspunter August 22, 2021 4:15 PM BST
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1429456684032876544/photo/1
.

The Daily Express, the paper you can trust to be accurate with it's reporting Laugh
Report edy August 22, 2021 4:20 PM BST
Remove Laschet
Install Söder
Save Lives
Report politicspunter August 22, 2021 4:25 PM BST
That's strange, it seems to be only me that's noticed it..
Report politicspunter August 23, 2021 7:27 PM BST
Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 23% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 23% (+3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (-0.5)
FDP-RE: 13% (+0.5)
AfD-ID: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 7% (+0.5)

+/- vs. 13-16 August 2021

Fieldwork: 20-23 August 2021
Sample size: 2,119

Another poll, another tie. SDP and UNION creating a bit of daylight between themselves and Greens.
Report politicspunter August 24, 2021 1:22 PM BST
Germany, Forsa poll:

SPD-S&D: 23% (+2)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 22% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18% (-1)
FDP-RE: 12%
AfD-ID: 10%
LINKE-LEFT: 6%

+/- vs. 10-16 August 2021

Fieldwork: 17-23 August 2021
Sample size: 2,504

SPD hit the front.
Report edy August 24, 2021 1:48 PM BST
Remove Laschet - Install Söder - Save Lives
Report politicspunter August 24, 2021 2:04 PM BST
Could be a massive shock result here. Scholz matched at 280.0 for chancellor.
Report politicspunter August 25, 2021 9:43 AM BST
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1430443393558188035/photo/1
.
Report politicspunter August 25, 2021 9:47 AM BST
https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/
.
Report politicspunter August 27, 2021 9:31 AM BST
Germany, YouGov poll:

SPD-S&D: 24% (+8)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 22% (-6)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 16%
AfD-ID: 11% (-1)
FDP-RE: 13% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 8%

+/- vs. 23-26 July 2021

Fieldwork: 20-24 August 2021
Sample size: 1,689

SPD surge continues unabated.
Report politicspunter August 27, 2021 9:58 AM BST
Reminds me of the 2017 UK general election. If you have an incredibly unpopular leader, nothing can be taken for granted.
Report politicspunter August 27, 2021 10:14 AM BST
The pressure on Laschet must be massive to step aside and allow the much more popular Markus Soder to take over, which would almost certainly guarantee the union coming first in seat totals.
Report politicspunter August 27, 2021 3:21 PM BST
Scholz now trading at odds on for chancellor.
Report politicspunter August 29, 2021 10:59 AM BST
Germany, INSA poll:

SPD-S&D: 24% (+2)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 21% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17%
FDP-RE: 13%
AfD-ID: 11% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-1)

+/- vs. 16-20 Aug.

Fieldwork: 23-27 August 2021
Sample size: 1,247
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- August 29, 2021 1:22 PM BST
Am I the only one who
imagines peak Arnie as The
Terminator reading out these polls?
Report timbuctooth August 29, 2021 1:58 PM BST
He`s been yellow-pilled

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oRdP3SYjgM

`Screw your freedoms`? No, arnie, screw you!
Report edy August 29, 2021 2:36 PM BST
First TV debate later today.
Report politicspunter August 29, 2021 6:50 PM BST
Last 3 polls from pollsters

Allensbach
Cdu +2
Cdu +8
Cdu +14

Kantar
Tie
Cdu +1
Cdu +3

Forsa
Spd +1
Cdu +2
Cdu +4

Wahlen
Tie
Cdu+7
Cdu+12

Dimap
Cdu +2
Cdu+9
Cdu +13

Insa
Spd+3
Tie
Tie

Yougov
Spd+2
Cdu +8
Cdu +15
Report politicspunter August 29, 2021 7:10 PM BST
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1432042114528038915/photo/1
.
Report politicspunter August 30, 2021 4:30 PM BST
Germany, INSA poll:

SPD-S&D: 25% (+2)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 20% (-3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 16.5% (-0.5)
FDP-RE: 13.5% (+0.5)
AfD-ID: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 7%

+/- vs. 20-23 Aug

Fieldwork: 27-30 August 2021
Sample size: 2,015
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- August 30, 2021 4:59 PM BST
Can I hear Arnie saying

"Lay the CDU"?
Report politicspunter August 30, 2021 5:04 PM BST
I would suggest that anyone who may have backed the SPD in the most seats market previously at a decent price should now keep an eye on the CDU/CSU price, with a view to backing them, in order that they can lock in a profit.
Report politicspunter August 31, 2021 1:38 PM BST
Germany, Forsa poll:

Scenario: Preferred Chancellor [Head of Government]

Söder (CSU-EPP): 39% (+1)
Scholz (SPD-S&D): 22% (+1)
Baerbock (GRÜNE-G/EFA): 14%

+/- vs. 17-23 Aug

Fieldwork: 24-30 August 2021
Sample size: 2,508

If they are going to chuck Laschet and bring in Soder, they need to do it now.
Report politicspunter August 31, 2021 1:38 PM BST
Germany, Forsa poll:

Preferred Chancellor [Head of Government]

Scholz (SPD-S&D): 29% (-1)
Baerbock (GRÜNE-G/EFA): 15%
Laschet (CDU-EPP): 11%

+/- vs. 17-23 Aug

Fieldwork: 24-30 August 2021
Sample size: 2,508
Report politicspunter August 31, 2021 9:04 PM BST
Some really incredible betting stuff going on in the exchanges tonight. The Union being matched at 3.0 for most seats would have been considered almost impossible even a fortnight ago.
Report politicspunter August 31, 2021 10:25 PM BST
Probably because there is an up to date poll out tonight...

SDP 27
Union 19.5
Green 15.5
Report politicspunter August 31, 2021 10:27 PM BST
The pressure on the Union must be immense now to dump Laschet.
Report politicspunter September 1, 2021 7:18 AM BST
BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Wahlkreisprognose

SPD: 27,0% (+5)
Union: 19,5% (-2,5)
GRÜNE: 15,5% (-2)
FDP: 13,0% (+2)
AfD: 10,5% (-0,5)
LINKE: 6,5% (-0,5)
Sonstige: 8,0% (-1,5)

Änderungen zur Umfrage vom 18. August 2021
Report politicspunter September 1, 2021 10:44 AM BST
Things seem to have calmed down a bit now on the betting exchanges after the crazy volatile stuff of the last 24 hours or so. Half a million matched on the chancellor/most seats markets already is pretty heavy for an election of this nature.
Report politicspunter September 2, 2021 11:34 AM BST
Germany, Kantar poll:

SPD-S&D: 25% (+2)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 21% (-2)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19% (+1)
FDP-RE: 11% (-1)
AfD-ID: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 7%

+/- vs. 18-24 August 2021

Fieldwork: 25-31 August 2021
Sample size: 1,439
Report politicspunter September 2, 2021 5:47 PM BST
Germany, Infratest dimap polls:

Historic comparison: Satisfaction with centre-right CDU/CSU (EPP) chancellor (head of government) candidate

Kohl 1998: 42%
Stoiber 2002: 44%
Merkel 2005: 57%
Merkel 2009: 68%
Merkel 2013: 71%
Merkel 2017: 64%
Laschet 2021: 20%
Report politicspunter September 2, 2021 5:47 PM BST
...and therein lies the problem.
Report politicspunter September 2, 2021 6:23 PM BST
Germany, Infratest Dimap poll:

Q: which party should lead the next federal government?

SPD-S&D: 35% (+5)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 24% (-6)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13% (-2)

+/- vs. 17-18 August

Fieldwork: 30 August - 1 September 2021
Sample size: 1,337
Report politicspunter September 4, 2021 9:14 PM BST
Some excellent new markets now on the exchange including Government make up and party percentage share of the vote.
Report politicspunter September 5, 2021 5:01 PM BST
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
.
Report SirNorbertClarke September 5, 2021 5:08 PM BST
pinocchiopoliticspunter have you managed to extinguish your traditional Tory pants yet?
Report politicspunter September 6, 2021 10:22 PM BST
Probably the craziest betting day yet on the exchange Grin
Report politicspunter September 6, 2021 10:39 PM BST
There was bets of a grand being chucked about as if they were two quid Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 6, 2021 10:45 PM BST
Some people backing their opinion or balancing a position.?
Report politicspunter September 6, 2021 10:48 PM BST
Honestly Donny, it's so crazy it's impossible to say what is going to get backed next. It's not just on the main chancellor/seats markets now, it's on the party percentage and government make up markets also.
Report politicspunter September 7, 2021 11:35 AM BST
Germany, Forsa poll:

SPD-S&D: 25% (+2)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 19% (-2)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (-1)
FDP-RE: 13% (+1)
AfD-ID: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 6%

+/- vs. 24-30 Aug

Fieldwork: 31 August - 6 September 2021
Sample size: 2,505

Quite incredible union decline.
Report politicspunter September 7, 2021 11:54 AM BST
Germany, Forsa poll:

Preferred Chancellor [Head of Government]

Scholz (SPD-S&D): 30% (+1)
Baerbock (GRÜNE-G/EFA): 15%
Laschet (CDU-EPP): 9% (-1)

+/- vs. 24-30 Aug

Fieldwork: 31 August - 6 September 2021
Sample size: 2,505
Report politicspunter September 7, 2021 7:14 PM BST
Germany, GMS poll:

SPD-S&D: 25% (+10)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 23% (-7)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (-1)
FDP-RE: 12%
AfD-ID: 11% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-1)

+/- vs. 21-27 Jul

Fieldwork: 1-6 September 2021
Sample size: 1,004

Hmm, perhaps all is not lost yet for the Union.
Report politicspunter September 7, 2021 9:08 PM BST
Well, apart from a heavy skirmish first thing this morning and a punch up at teatime, it was all quiet on the western front today on the exchange. Prices seem to have settled down (for now!) but in the crazy world of German politics that is only likely to be a lull in the fighting rather than a ceasefire.
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 1:47 PM BST
Germany, Kantar poll:

SPD-S&D: 25%
CDU/CSU-EPP: 21%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (-2)
FDP-RE: 12% (+1)
AfD-ID: 12% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-1)

+/- vs. 25-31 August 2021

Fieldwork: 1-7 September 2021
Sample size: 1,901
Report politicspunter September 14, 2021 11:36 AM BST
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187261461
.

Looking at this market and the opinion polls, it would seem likely that the party with the most seats (currently SPD) will have the first opportunity to try and form a coalition government. Although they have worked in coalition with the Union previously, there have been plenty of harsh words bandied about between them during this campaign. The Greens look a more likely partner for the first port of call but that is likely to leave that group still requiring around 7-10% to have a majority.
Report politicspunter September 22, 2021 8:55 AM BST
There are tentative signs in the last couple of days opinion polls that the union are closing the gap on the SPD.
Report politicspunter September 24, 2021 4:34 PM BST
The Union is definitely closing the gap. If anyone has a bet on SPD winning most seats I would advise a saver on the Union asap.
Report politicspunter September 26, 2021 10:06 AM BST
Todays the day. Some very active and competitive markets on the exchanges.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 26, 2021 6:21 PM BST
Bbc

First projection says result still too tight to tell
You've seen the exit polls - now here are the first projected results. These include the first actual returns from polling stations. And as we've been saying for over an hour, the result really is too close to call.

24. 9 spd
24.7 cdu
14.8 green

All to play for...
Report politicspunter September 26, 2021 8:36 PM BST
It's still very close but it looks as though SPD definitely are ahead in the most seats market but not by much.
Report politicspunter September 26, 2021 9:10 PM BST
Latest guesstimate is SPD have it by 205-195
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 26, 2021 9:18 PM BST
Bbc seem to like sholtz pics with arm in air


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-58644812

..
Report Escapee September 26, 2021 10:55 PM BST
"Bbc seem to like sholtz pics with arm in air"

So is the 1.22 on offer value?
Report politicspunter September 27, 2021 10:31 AM BST
Now the smoke has cleared, it's not clear at all. We know what percentages and seats each party achieved but that's about it. The Chancellor position and the ruling parties of government are still up in the air and they could be for some considerable time.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 27, 2021 12:56 PM BST
Most seats looks fairly
sorted.
Report politicspunter September 27, 2021 1:05 PM BST
Yep, most seats is good. I am wondering now how secure the position of the Union leader Laschet is. I don't have a shadow of doubt that if the Union had chosen the CSU leader Soder as their chancellor nominee, the Union would have won outright. Scholz, as SPD leader strictly will have first go at forming a coalition government but in Germany, those type of guidelines don't always follow any logical path. Baerbock, the Greens leader, will have Scholz with flowers at her doorstep and being serenaded with love songs by Laschet below her window. The FDP party, the third likely coalition partner, do not get on at all with the SDP and would much rather enter a coalition with the Union. Prices like 1.2 for any outcome must be avoided, at least for now.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 27, 2021 1:22 PM BST
Wait for the white smoke
when the deal makers get going.

So many possibilities
Report politicspunter September 27, 2021 1:34 PM BST
Hey, the Union and SPD might do an "Israel" and say feck it, we don't need Greens of FPD, let's just get together, we have 50% which is enough to govern, I will go chancellor for the first couple of years and you can be chancellor for the next two.
Report politicspunter September 28, 2021 10:25 PM BST
Crazy stuff all day on the exchanges. Probably just as much action as pre election.
Report politicspunter September 28, 2021 10:49 PM BST
It just doesn't seem credible now that Laschet can form a coalition. Many in his own party have conceded defeat and are calling for his head.
Report akabula September 28, 2021 11:11 PM BST
Report akabula September 28, 2021 11:11 PM BST
OOPS Sorry, wrong thread.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:24 PM BST
I like the photo on the wall Aka Laugh
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:32 PM BST
He's perfectly sane, pp and so is his argument that Scotland should remain in the Union. I find his posts interesting.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 28, 2021 11:36 PM BST
It's like when Cameron hooked
up with nick, rather than
brown and nick, and labour
were rumoured to offer to
ditch brown to get coalition
with nick, and with it the crown.

All good stuff.
Report politicspunter September 28, 2021 11:38 PM BST
Yep, even Markus Soder says Scholz has won and should have the first opportunity at forming a government.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:41 PM BST
There are some posters with far more posts than that, do you think they are ill too? Surely the topic addressed by Aka is more important than some inconsequential sport populated by narcissistic types knocking a ball over a net.
Report politicspunter September 28, 2021 11:44 PM BST
A leading German conservative has made a public show of congratulating the Social Democrats’ candidate on winning Sunday’s national election in a sign of division within the centre-right alliance of outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel after it plunged to historic losses.

Markus Söder, the head of Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU), the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) sister party, said Olaf Scholz was frontrunner to become Germany’s next leader, undermining the claims of the CDU-CSU’s Armin Laschetthat the 25.7%-24.1% result was too narrow to amount to a clear mandate and he could still form a “future-oriented coalition”.

“Olaf Scholz has the best chances to become chancellor,” Söder said. “That’s crystal clear”.




While Laschet has reportedly declined to congratulated Scholz on winning the vote, Söder pointedly saluted the centre-left candidate, Germany’s finance minister and vice-chancellor. “It is important to respect the result,” he said. “Part of that is that I once again congratulate Olaf Scholz.”
Report politicspunter September 28, 2021 11:45 PM BST

Sep 28, 2021 -- 5:41PM, Foinavon wrote:


There are some posters with far more posts than that, do you think they are ill too? Surely the topic addressed by Aka is more important than some inconsequential sport populated by narcissistic types knocking a ball over a net.


The topic of hatred? Hatred of one single political party? A hatred so deep that he makes forty four thousand odd posts on it over eight years?

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 28, 2021 11:46 PM BST
Trust nobody in politics until
they are dead.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:49 PM BST
It's not hatred, that's your interpretation, plenty of hatred on the separatist side.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:54 PM BST
I didn't say you were although you seem to display a lot of animosity towards him. I'm surprised he hasn't complained about it.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:54 PM BST
I didn't say you were although you seem to display a lot of animosity towards him. I'm surprised he hasn't complained about it.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:54 PM BST
I didn't say you were although you seem to display a lot of animosity towards him. I'm surprised he hasn't complained about it.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:54 PM BST
I didn't say you were although you seem to display a lot of animosity towards him. I'm surprised he hasn't complained about it.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:55 PM BST
I didn't say you were although you seem to display a lot of animosity towards him. I'm surprised he hasn't complained about it.
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:56 PM BST
Whoops, not intentional.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 28, 2021 11:56 PM BST
You have now, lol
Report Foinavon September 28, 2021 11:58 PM BST
This thread is about the German election, you guys are prolonging a diversion, something I've seen pp complain about in the past.
Report politicspunter September 28, 2021 11:59 PM BST
It's not animosity to suggest ways in which he can be helped.
Report Foinavon September 29, 2021 12:00 AM BST
It's animosity to suggest he is ill for disagreeing with you on a political matter.
Report politicspunter September 29, 2021 12:01 AM BST
Foinavon, the only reason you are on this thread is to comment on posts made by akabula who follows me around every post and every thread to post his usual stuff.
Report Foinavon September 29, 2021 12:04 AM BST
I have every right to comment on a post made by anyone on this forum.
The SNP are buffoons, this isn't the USSR or China and anyone has the right to mock politicians here.
Report politicspunter September 29, 2021 12:04 AM BST
Is this a thread about the SNP?
Report Foinavon September 29, 2021 12:05 AM BST
I've had enough of your nonsense for one evening, goodnight.
Report politicspunter September 29, 2021 12:07 AM BST
Anyway, back to the thread. I wonder what would happen if Laschet resigned tomorrow and Soder took is place. He is an incredibly popular figure and could have a direct impact on the make up of any future coalition.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 29, 2021 12:10 AM BST
I guess it might be taken as a sign
of potential deals.

More fun and games.


Dunno what foinavon bringing me
into his rant for. I blocked
numpty ages ago.
Report politicspunter September 29, 2021 11:38 AM BST
I am not sure why Betfair haven't paid out on a number of their markets. Everyone else has, as far as I can make out.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 29, 2021 11:40 AM BST
Ha ha, betfair do like to keep
political markets open longer.
Report politicspunter September 29, 2021 11:44 AM BST
Ah, right enough, I wonder if they can "trump" their most recent PR disaster?
Report politicspunter October 7, 2021 5:08 PM BST
Rumour control says that Laschet is going to resign as CDU leader.
Report politicspunter October 8, 2021 9:32 AM BST
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58826194
.

German elections: Defeated Merkel heir Laschet prepared to resign
Report politicspunter October 10, 2021 8:56 PM BST
Although Laschet may resign in the future (as yet unclear) and it looks as though the SPD will be the main party of government (probably), it is a bit nutty when folks are risking thousands on the exchanges to win a few coppers, convinced that these events have already happened.
It's not just this event where this is commonplace. In politics, mad things happen. That is why you should never lay anything at prices close to 1000.0 if it is still a possibility.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com