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31 Jul 21 07:52
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 31,672 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog

A circle of competence is the subject area which matches a person's skills or expertise.
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Report politicspunter July 31, 2021 8:53 AM BST
I started this thread after reading this article from another forum...

Last week I wrote about the Olympic medal markets, and why I had bet on the USA to get under 111 and 113 medals with two bookies. This was stupid. I placed the bet for the wrong reasons and went beyond my Circle of Competence.

A Circle of Competence is a subject area where a person has the appropriate skills and expertise to operate. It isn’t only experts who have Circles of Competence, we all do, theirs are just bigger in those areas.

I am a skilled political bettor, I feel it is fair to say. I am far from perfect, but I have a lot of knowledge, experience, a winning track record, and a good ‘betting temperament’. My mistake, and it was a real blunder, was forgetting that competence mostly doesn’t transfer across different topics.

If you re-read my last article, it gives a superficial case for American underperformance based almost solely on previous medal tallies. The reason for this is that I didn’t have enough actual knowledge or understanding to properly engage with the market. I knew there were more events this time, but not how many more. I certainly didn’t know which countries were favoured in the new events and where the ‘extra’ medals might go. I was in no position to place these bets.

My confidence from political betting made me feel comfortable making, and promoting, a bet in a totally different category. This is a mistake people make the whole time.

Perhaps the classic example of this mistake is how the media and public take too seriously the political views of celebrities: Someone may be great at business or sport or acting, but why do we think this means they understand how to run a country any better than the next man?

Returning to my bet, I stepped right out of my area of (at least some) actual expertise and into a different topic. But I still acted like an experienced operator.

This is partially a betting lesson, and partially a life lesson. We achieve far more when we remember to take on the right challenges in the right ways. When we are doing something new, even if it feels similar to something we are good at, we would be wise to be cautious.

Team America is having mixed results, and Simone Biles’ unexpected issues might save this bet (though of course I hope she recovers quickly and can compete). But, win or lose, this is a cautionary tale of placing bets with false confidence. Hopefully you can learn from my mistake without having to place your own bad bets.
Report lfc1971 July 31, 2021 9:52 AM BST
Load of crap
Report flat16 July 31, 2021 10:56 AM BST
Agree with pp ,which is strangely worrying ,bet horses and greyhounds only ,on the horses ,by keeping a daily p/loss I found I was in front to varying degrees MTW and broke evens tf and fractionally lost saturdays ,on further analysis my choice of bets strongly suited low grade races ,such as the "banded at southwell" ,not the saturday group races and big hcaps.
So just increased stakes in profitable races and decreased in the others.
I would expect many to bet to the same pattern but not many keep the daily account ,eg many sane people I asked were convinced they won on FOBT ,selective memory obviously.
Report politicspunter July 31, 2021 11:03 AM BST
Just to be clear, I didn't write the article in my post at 8.53 am. However, I find it very interesting and the author is indeed, very well respected in the politics betting world.
Report politicspunter July 31, 2021 11:08 AM BST
Regarding keeping records etc, I don't keep exact historical betting profit/loss figures which might surprise some folks. I have some A4 sized writing pads filled with my bets over the years but not an exact running total, I know roughly what my lifetime figures are for the exchanges I use, which are always supplied on request.
Report flat16 July 31, 2021 11:12 AM BST
Sorry was multi tasking and misread , my mistake.
Report politicspunter July 31, 2021 11:13 AM BST
No problem at all.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip July 31, 2021 11:22 AM BST
I learned a new word today!


to make a seemingly modest, self-critical, or casual statement or reference that is meant to draw attention to one's admirable or impressive qualities or achievements
Report flat16 July 31, 2021 11:23 AM BST
By keeping the day diary p/l in a simple one page/day and collating ,gives you relative profitability on :NH and flat ,AW and grass and of course ,the various tracks and all goings.
Of course all findings and conclusions are only individual ,as relate only to my own selection process ,not anybody else's.
Many do the same thing subconsciously ,hence favourite track and jockey but this is flawed as combines the punters enemy.... emotion.
Report lfc1971 July 31, 2021 11:41 AM BST
And what is the difference between one race and the next?
Report politicspunter July 31, 2021 11:44 AM BST
I agree that if you are a dedicated punter, you should keep accurate records. The main reason I don't is that I hated the accounts aspect when I had my business, I let the accountant deal with all that, ensuring of course everything was properly audited every year. Once retired, I enjoy politics punting for fun and really have no interest in accounting the exact details. As I say, I have a fairly good ball park idea of where I am over the years.
Report lfc1971 July 31, 2021 11:47 AM BST
Flat16 I do the same and keep a daily record of all bets
But it doesn’t help of course in itself
Report flat16 July 31, 2021 11:54 AM BST
Hardly dedicated ,just an insomniac and it just goes to the thread title ,"circle of competence" and may point to where you can have an edge and where you have not.
Juvenile maths with a few coloured pens which I copied from cricket match scorers.
Report lfc1971 July 31, 2021 11:56 AM BST
Happy good stuff that’s why I do it also
Looking for patterns
Report lfc1971 July 31, 2021 11:58 AM BST
everything is maths , It doesn’t matter what the sport or venue or weather is
it’s just numbers
Report flat16 July 31, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Dead right if you do not understand probability and/or choose your bets wrongly ,the daily record will just show your doing you bolloxs ,which should really have been obvious.
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