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Will the mask/lockdown fanatics admit they were wrong if...?

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Replies: 460
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Jul 21 12:25
In fact, frog, please forecast the number of cases for the next month and the number of deaths?
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 12:26

Jul 27, 2021 -- 6:23AM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:


Seem to remember a 'scare' death number of 20,000 being mentioned back at the start which seemed ridiculous at the time.Falling cases Frog , after rapidly rising cases. It's not difficult.


Falling cases Frog , after rapidly rising cases. It's not difficult.

Of course. that is what happens everywhere. that is why lockdowns dont reduce the numbers once they are already high.

You can see it. I can see. But Neil Ferguson couldnt. He thought we would get record cases numbers of 100k-200k even though over 90% of adults have anti-bodies, it is summer and we had just had the Euros.

By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 12:29
Why don't you spend your time detailing what should happen moving forward from today  rather than constantly debating, with the benefit of hindsight,  what has already happened. You can't change any of that.
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 12:33

Jul 27, 2021 -- 6:29AM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:


Why don't you spend your time detailing what should happen moving forward from today

By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 12:37
Thread was started 2 days before lockdown ended following a letter to the Lancet saying it was a dangerous and the science 'consensus' was the easing would result in 100k cases a day.

I have been saying since December 2020 on here that lockdowns are pointless once cases are already high. Pandemics hit in waves. Look at the India data for Delta... same thing.. it aint rocket science:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 12:42
OK so you believe numbers would not have been higher without lockdowns (or masks). You have an opinion , fine, but that's it.
Others believe numbers would have been worse. We will never know.
The key question is - Will all of the longterm costs of lockdown be worth the lower death numbers ? Can any of us really answer that ? There are just too many factors to take into account.
Some people will still be bearing the negative impacts of the lockdowns in 50 years time, probably longer.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 12:47
December 2020 - just as the vaccine shows up  ? Seems pretty irresponsible to me to suggest opening things up with numbers high and a vaccine rollout just starting.
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 13:12

Jul 27, 2021 -- 6:47AM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:


December 2020 - just as the vaccine shows up

By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 13:13
Why? Cases peaked before the lockdowns and the vulnerable could have shielded like they did in March-July 2020. Anyone who wanted to be extra careful could be as well.

You are going with the assumption that lockdowns decrease cases. This is the assumption Ferguson and Sage went with. Now for the first time we are open with high cases and the Sage are scratching their heads as to why cases are not rising.

Surely we should learn from this for IF cases rise again rather than stick to the assumption that lockdowns caused cases to fall in April 2020 and Jan 2021?
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 13:16
We had the original wave with C19, then the Alpha variant from November than the Delta variant. Those caused the cases to rise.

Alpha and Delta grew in lockdowns.

It is far from proven that the first two waves were halted by lockdowns and it is 100% proven that Delta was NOT halted by lockdowns.
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Jul 21 13:30
Frog, why don't you forecast cases and deaths for the next month? Anyone at all can backfit numbers to suit their agenda.
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Jul 21 13:31
Nothing is 100% proven, nothing at all.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 13:42
You can't just totally dismiss the possibility that cases might have been even higher without lockdowns.
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 14:00

Jul 27, 2021 -- 7:42AM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:


You can't just totally dismiss the possibility that cases might have been even higher without lockdowns.


Agreed you cannot dismiss it.

But at the same time you cannot just be like Boris and claim 100% that lockdowns led to the decline in cases - especially given the information from the Delta decline.

By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Jul 21 14:02
Hold on frog, you said  "it is 100% proven that Delta was NOT halted by lockdowns."
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 14:07
If someone is going to look at a graph and claim the January lockdown 'caused' a decline in cases they could equally look at a graph and claim that the July 19th ending of lockdown 'caused' cases to drop.

Both appear to be a nonsense to me. 'Cause' cannot be linked to either. Both peaked at a 7 day average of around 50,000 cases a day.
By:
shiny new shoes please
When: 27 Jul 21 14:08
stop 4yr old? Or womb?
Ireland  set to approve Covid vaccines for 12-15 year-olds next week Excited
That's another tick CrazyWink
Comedy gold
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 14:10
END IN SIGHT Bulk of Covid pandemic will be behind us by September, says Prof Lockdown

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15702520/pandemic-behind-us-september-neil-ferguson/

THE UK is finally emerging from the pandemic - with the bulk of cases due to be behind us in months, Professor Neil Ferguson said today.

Thanks to vaccines, he said "the equation has fundamentally changed".

The expert, dubbed Professor Lockdown, warned his prediction of 100,000 cases a day after England unlocked is still not impossible.

But he said by September or October, the worst of the pandemic should be left behind.

He told Radio 4's Today show: "We are not completely out of the woods but the equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of the vaccines has been huge in reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death.

"And I think I'm positive that by late September/October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.

"We will still have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid but we put the bulk of the pandemic behind us."

He warned that while the picture looks good, we still need to be cautious, as the effects of the unlocking have not been seen yet.

Professor Ferguson thinks the plateau in cases the UK is currently experiencing after a spike is due to Euro 2020 ending and the warm weather leading to outdoor socialising and open windows.

On his grim prediction of 100,000 cases a day, he said: "I think it's too early to tell, the reductions we've seen at the moment occurred really before the unlocking took place and we won't see for several more weeks the effect of the unlocking.

"That said I'm quite happy to be wrong if it's wrong in the right direction, if case numbers stay low that'd be very good news."

Yesterday 24,950 new cases were recorded, down from 29,173 on Sunday, and 31,795 on Saturday.

In total there has been a drop of 46 per cent in the last week.

Professor Lawrence Young, a specialist in molecu­lar oncology at Warwick University told The Sun the fall in numbers could be due to a drop in testing.

He said: “One thing that is a concern is that school children were being tested twice a week with lateral flow tests, and added to the figures.”

He warned: “It is still within the realms of possibility that we could hit 100,000 a day in the next couple of months - we still have a highly trans­missible variant circulating.
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 14:10
Desperately scrambling to backfit the data.
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Jul 21 14:11
He warned: “It is still within the realms of possibility that we could hit 100,000 a day in the next couple of months - we still have a highly trans­missible variant circulating.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 27 Jul 21 14:14
It's almost as if some folk
on a gambling forum want us to
believe they don't understand
probability.

Lol
By:
clouded leopard
When: 27 Jul 21 14:25
oh no

not a highly transmissible variant   Surprised


that nobody is getting ill from Cool


run for the hills
By:
clouded leopard
When: 27 Jul 21 14:28
In other news

I see the 'dependable' PCR test might be pulled by end of year
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 14:33
https://youtu.be/YrX72PMbV_Y?t=1892

'It is almost certain we will get to 1000 hospitalisations a day. Almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. Real question is whether we get to double that or even higher....Success would be a peak of 100,000 cases a day with a very slow decline.'

This was Ferguson the day before freedom day.

Two weeks later he is saying it will be over by September.

This is the main modelling guy out there that 18 months of policy has been set on.
By:
frog1000
When: 27 Jul 21 14:33
Watch the video clip on Marr and tell us he aint a guesser.
By:
politicspunter
When: 27 Jul 21 14:33
You know, I could simply say that the reason cases and deaths are going down is because the number of vaccinated folks is going up. Am I 100% correct?
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 14:55
I haven't commented on the accuracy or otherwise of NF's predictions, but a "lockdowns are pointless" stance is just not factually correct.
I would probably agree with a "lockdowns extend lives but are not cost effective to society as a whole over the longer term" position, but so many on here have views that are totally polarised. Very few seem able to acknowledge that a wide grey area exists between their black or white positions.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 27 Jul 21 15:39
johnny ferguson whitty etc haven't a clue what is going on

all their predictions have been wrong
By:
Giuseppe
When: 27 Jul 21 15:53
"You know, I could simply say that the reason cases and deaths are going down is because the number of vaccinated folks is going up. Am I 100% correct?"

cases have halved in a week

that can't be due to vaccinations
By:
Mexico
When: 27 Jul 21 16:10
SS …
“ If you provide them a link they call it a right wing conspiracy site so you can't win ”

People will only claim it is a right wing conspiracy site if they believe it to be a right wing conspiracy site.


So not only are you too scared/selfish to have a freedom giving vaccine you are too ashamed to admit on an anonymous forum where your information is from.

Just provide a link unless of course you believe your information comes from a right wing racist conspiracy site.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 16:18
Jeez - "that can't be due to vaccinations"..

What does that mean ?  - None of it is due to vaccinations ?  or not all of it is due to vaccinations ?...One is true ..the other is false.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 27 Jul 21 16:19
i liked it when we didn't need to get a vaccine in order to be free
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 27 Jul 21 16:21

Jul 27, 2021 -- 10:10AM, Mexico wrote:


SS …“ If you provide them a link they call it a right wing conspiracy site so you can't win ”People will only claim it is a right wing conspiracy site if they believe it to be a right wing conspiracy site.So not only are you too scared/selfish to have a freedom giving vaccine you are too ashamed to admit on an anonymous forum where your information is from.Just provide a link unless of course you believe your information comes from a right wing racist conspiracy site.


The best you can come back with is "selfish" or in extreme cases "murderer"

That's the best you've got in convincing me to have the potion?

That sounds like desperation to me, stinks of it in fact

You're now at the forcing them and insulting them stage

And you can't see the nazism in it... ironic innit

By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 27 Jul 21 16:23
You can have your freedoms back if you want them, take the potion and you get them back my friend

I ain't taking it so you can stick those freedoms up your backside LaughLaugh

Why do you care so much about what we're doing? you've got serious issues my man, serious issues that need checking out
By:
shiny new shoes please
When: 27 Jul 21 16:24
Germany..

"I don't think much of compulsory vaccinations or indirectly putting pressure on people," Mr Laschet told ZDF television.
He likes his balls
ExcitedLaugh
By:
feedthepony
When: 27 Jul 21 16:27

Jul 27, 2021 -- 8:14AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


It's almost as if some folkon a gambling forum want us tobelieve they don't understandprobability.Lol


How's this - over 50% of those who have Covid don't even know they have it without having to be tested and for 99% of positives the cure is to do absolutely nothing.  Scary pandemic when you factor in probability

By:
Giuseppe
When: 27 Jul 21 16:32
figures of 80-85% being bandied about last year for people with no symtroms at all
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 27 Jul 21 16:33
And that's another question

Why are we "selfish" when you lot are going back to your sporting events anyway

And all this "selfish" talk landed quickly didn't it Laugh it was only 2 months ago when most weren't even offered the vaxxine

And you just knew they'd go down this route, totally and utterly predictable Crazy
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 27 Jul 21 16:33
Many readily accept your freedom of choice regarding the vaccine. No problem. What you do not get to choose are the consequences of that decision. Democracy, society in general or chance will all play their part.
Imagine it - choosing what you want to do and then also the outcome of that decision. Utopia - life just isn't like that.
By:
Giuseppe
When: 27 Jul 21 16:36
a referendum on lockdown policy, and vacccine passports to enter pubs or leave the country, would be nice
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