......... Brexit just goes from bad to wurst......

Covid infections were falling before the lockdowns

Lockdowns don't work. If they did we would have had an opportunity to eliminate or severely restrict those diseases reliant on intimate contact for their spread. Have STDs gone away? I don't think so. If you want to know why, ask Hancock or Professor Pantsdown.

Don't be stupid.

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/expert-opinion/100000-infections-every-day-why-uk-lockdown-came-just-time

That was to lfc, but...

If a virus makes you infectious for 14 days then if you isolate
14 days you won't pass it on.

If you have an std that is infectious for years, and remains dormant
In your body it won't go away by isolating 14 days or 3 months. When
you resume sexual activity you can pass it on.

If you use the data to determine when and how R changed -
this suggests that R was already down below 1 before lockdown

If that was the case then rather than surging new infections were on the decline

Just because B follows A

Does not mean that B was caused by A

Important scientific principle

Covid infections were already falling .. before the lockdowns

The lockdowns were for more than 14 days. I think symptoms manifest themselves after a few weeks and people usually seek treatment. The spread is dependent on some people within an existing chain or group making new contacts, the lockdown rules would prohibit that. Assuming that infected people were being treated then the incidence of new cases should have abated. The high profile cases of people flouting the rules was just the tip of the iceberg human nature being what it is,,,

It wasn't below 1 before lockdown.

It's hard to have measured it without adequate testing
and no test for asymptomatic infection.

Which is why actual figures are extrapolated.

Who gets tested for stds if they don't have symptoms.

And many have symptoms which clear up so think
it's gone, but are still infectious.

I know how long lockdowns were, and used 14 days
as an example of an infectious period of a virus
like covid.

We never locked down 100%, I was able to go shopping.

We reduced transmission to get less new infections
than those stopping being infectious.

Lockdown worked, I know it's difficult for
some folk to understand yootoob talks bollox at times
but that's life

If you use the data to directly estimate the daily
number of new fatal infections from the data on daily deaths
and fatal disease duration - this strongly suggests that infections
were in substantial decline before lockdown , and that R was already
below 1

No it doesnt

I didn't get that off of Youtube, I was thinking laterally. I'm not an expert on STDs and I don't suppose you are either. It's likely some are symptomless carriers but if they were following the rules and observing 2 metre separation they would not be passing on STDs and cases would have abated. Was that the case? I haven't seen any figures nor have I heard the argument advanced elsewhere. I think it's a valid argument. Regarding the virus, if carriers are walking around an enclosed space breathing out billions of virus particles the two-metre rule is hardly likely to prevent exposure to them.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd39d6b8fa8f54d5c52de43/Impact_of_COVID-19_Report_2020.pdf

..

And telegraph


Lockdown shutdown of promiscuity keeps a lid on STI rates

Sexually transmitted infections plummet by a third in 2020, with drop in testing also contributing to record-low figures

And yeah, if I was infectious and went shopping
without knowing I was infectious and no masking was in place
it's likely I would have infected many people.

Not just those within 2 metres.


I used analogy at the time of cigarette smoke
and that simply fills any space,

Of course in early days we didn't know all of
this even if we suspected a lot of it.

There’s a difference between STIs and covid
Covid you can catch walking along - on your own - anywhere

It like comparing HIV to civid
HIV could be avoided by the vast majority
They are totally different things

Thanks for that, I will read it through with interest. From the summary, it looks as if there was both some reduction in demand and a winding down of access and provision of treatment and diagnosis. More time is needed to reach a conclusion.

These early findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic response, including social
and physical distancing measures, has led to a re-prioritisation and disruption in
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prevention, testing, diagnosis and care for
sexually transmitted infections, HIV and viral hepatitis in England
4
provision of, and patient access to, health services for HIV, STIs and viral hepatitis.
Reduced demand for services during this time may have been influenced by compliance
with social distancing measures as well as changes in risk perception and behaviour.
The full impact on infection transmission and long term health outcomes will take time to
emerge and evaluate.

Yeah we know, but it's an interesting difference
and lockdown was a test on lots of other forms
of infectious diseases.

There are years of study to come out of the lockdowns.

Doubtless a good few PhD options emerging.

Hopefully more good will come of them.

Again to lfc.. ^^^

It doesn’t matter if STI s reduces during lockdown
That is completely irrelevant to covid

It's an independent test of lockdown compliance lfc, the transmission mechanisms are different.

The results are fogged because the clinics were restricting access to testing and treatment. Other factors as Donnie suggests such as dormancy may also be a cause of resurgency following the end of lockdown.

It's irrelevant to covid, yes very probably
(unless std victims turned out to have worse
covid outcomes)

But it's behaviour of crowds and compliance with
lockdown, and modelling std rates may well, in time,
show what actual lockdown compliance was.

It's also interesting to scientists to see how
infectious diseases behave.

We've already seen its likely that not having
flu for 2 years makes it a bit worse when we finally
get reinfected.....see China right now.

Foin it’s not an independent test of lockdowns

It’s just a test that says if you don’t have sex you won’t get STi s

That has zero bearing on covid and lockdowns

I think hiv victims were on list for longer isolation
if they are imuno compromised.

To be an HIV victim you have to do something

To catch covid you don’t

People behave differently, many will have observed the rules and those will include people who probably wouldn't normally be seeking new sexual contacts anyway. A proportion would have flouted the rules and the incidence of new cases would have been a measure of that.

And that’s what makes the view that lockdowns had
such a dramatic effect .. very very doubtful

That there is so much observable data
tells us lockdowns had a big effect.

Cracking the data by removing anomolies
is helped by the effect of lockdown on diverse
diseases spread in diverse manners.

Plenty more to be found.

The data doesn’t tell us that the data tells us
lockdowns were a response to rising infections and deaths
The pressure to bring in the lockdowns at those times - 3
were understandably immense .. but in each of those cases
the data tells us deaths and infections were already in decline

If you think of it that makes sense more sense

The other aspect is that if there was an effect, how great was it and was it worth the enormous ongoing cost? Vulnerable people would have self-isolated anyway or reduced to amount of external contact to a minimum. Some in large multigenerational households would not have had that luxury but even with lockdown the risk is still multiplied by the number of individuals in the household and how careful they all were.

But you start from a wrong position
and can't even think of potential in the data.

So pretty much you are a one legged man
in an arse kicking contest.

Ha ha, to lfc again.

Yes, I realise but no need to spoil an interesting discussion. That's it for tinight as far as I'm concerned. a demain.

The other aspect is that if there was an effect, how great was it and was it worth the enormous ongoing cost? Vulnerable people would have self-isolated anyway or reduced to amount of external contact to a minimum. Some in large multigenerational households would not have had that luxury but even with lockdown the risk is still multiplied by the number of individuals in the household and how careful they all were




Yes of course and some did.

So research needs to incorporate that

Or at least model it to a high degree.




Looking at known other diseases will be
vital to that.


Anyway it's one to keep an eye on, and as above
hopefully yet more good comes from study of the data.

If you think of it cold infections come in waves
Maybe twice a year over three , four , five … years
They come ,build ,fade away ,return build fade away etc

Covid will have been the same - maybe a more congested timeframe as a new virus

And it came , built steadily , and then worryingly quickly .. lockdown due to understandable fear
But the data strongly suggest that wave was already falling before lockdown
Then as might be expected naturally a second wave .. which would recede , and then
a third before Christmas or over winter etc ..
So the lockdowns were in response to the natural cycle of covid / just as we have natural waves of cold infections

Lockdowns were a reaction to those natural cycles not
the cause of them

With children still at school and workers allowed to travel on public transport without masks the lockdowns were a joke.

You are right SNC ,we have such liberal views on stuff like civil liberties ,human rights..........such weak law enforcement ,such wokery. That when it comes to something like a lockdown we are truly pathetic.
Remember you can walk into a shop and grab anything and walk out ,fck a statue into a harbour ,deface a war memorial ,block the M25 all with all but a miniscule chance of a feeble fine or slap on the wrist.
The Chinese enforced a lockdown but do we want to go there ,as always the right way is probably somewhere in the middle.

To stop a virus you need a month of total isolation but that is impossible to enforce so each lockdown was a waste of time.

That’s what we did - we made a sensible compromise
and at certain times did have a policy of lockdown as best we could - yes it meant on occasion
some were able to be working from home or indeed on the golf course instead of working
It was not a question of civil liberties

Token gesture.......I knew a bunch of builder boys all young and fit ,only time they wore a mask was to go into shop for pies ,**** etc..........they all used the very same mask on the van dashboard......all got covid together.....all went to pub after work.........all spread the virus as they went.
Many millions of essential workers ,never had a day off ,hardly even noticed the chaos and death.

Yes there are question marks as to just what effect the lockdowns had
if any maybe negligible  .. but that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t have been
introduced - if they hadn’t the usual suspects would be accusing the government of murder

By the way those builders were idiots

By electing Boris as PM the UK voted for gross incompetence & corruption and boy did we get it.

The builders may well be idiots but the politicians who thought kids couldn't catch or spread covid at school were even bigger idiots.

Introducing them fine but we do not have the will to enforce them.
Take for example the binmen.......three lads complete their round all trying valiantly to social distance ,then jump into a 1.5 cubic metre cab and and drive home together and then back to their families.

They all caught covid ..

As long as they were careful not to pass it on to anyone elderly family member or general population etc

The fact is they all caught covid

Someone on here alluded to how we isolate cattle etc for foot and mouth etc ,draconian penalties, discipline and it is easier.Herds isolated from each other and stringent hygiene everywhere.
You cannot do that with humans in this country ,humans have millions of interactions daily,people basically did as they wished .That is why it spread so quickly .
The lessons of the "black death" have not been learnt..........people moved from the contaminated capital to "safety" spreading it as they went.

That’s what might have caused the rapid spread in Italy
When it started it was in the north and people moved
south to relatives where it was unknown initially for safety
and it spread quickly

Actually restrictions only applied initially
to the northern part of Italy

There was a Scottish politician with a positive covid test and she still travelled home from London regardless ,now she might have been intelligent and aware ,others were not.
Was she fined or imprisoned ,wsf....community service.

We forget just how chaotic it was in some countries

The broader restrictions came just hrs after the
authorities announced 9,172 had been infected
1,598 more than the day before and 463 deaths
the majority overwhelmingly old and sick
Permission had to be sought to move about the country
Schools , universities closed,  prison visits and day release
banned - setting off riots across the country at 27 prisons
Guards were held hostage and several inmates died at Modena

lfc I would love to see some of the evidence for some of your posts in the last 24 hours. So far as I know there are no confirmed transmissions of Covid outdoors and anyone (myself included) who followed the advice and doubled the distances apart was at almost no risk of catching Covid or even a common cold. I have not been in a heated room with more than 10 people in it since March 2020 and don't intend to. I have not caught any infections in that time. I accept that those working in the NHS and in jobs that forced them into contact with others were bound to catch it.

UK could rejoin the EU ‘in some form’, Tory manifesto author says

Rachel Wolf said shifting geopolitics and UK demographics could see a new relationship with Brussels


.... Race to be pro euro for next election

There are many remainers and rejoiners in the Conservative party as there are many leavers in both parties.
Indeed the ultra conservative CBI was the richest and loudest lobbyist for remain ,the BBC the most influential propagandist ,with the TUC not far behind.......strange bed fellows indeed.

90% of people still don't understand the difference between the EU and Europe. Of course the UK should have close ties to Europe-we are geographically part of it and if possible we should have free trade deals with each of the member states. That does not mean that we need to rejoin the rancid organisation with a very expensive bureaucracy in Brussels. And when an EU leader starts saying that we should rejoin, you can rest assured that they are doing so solely to get more money from the UK to help reduce their ever growing deficit. If German companies wish to have less red tape when trading with the UK they should take it up with the German government and insist on a change in the rules. The EU is the best example of the emperor with no clothes ever seen. It has no income of its own, no tax raising powers, no police force, no armed forces but still manages to bully people into submission.

Over 200 Tory MPs campaigned to Remain; the Tory PM led the campaign to Remain. The reason I opposed the referendum whilst being against the EU is Brexit was always going to be a shambles whilst a majority of MPs opposed leaving which they still do.

The huge mistake was to call a referendum and then campaign for Remain. Insane decision. They should have known that the great British silent majority will always do the opposite of what the Government tells them. Then Mrs May reneged on the 5 year minimum fixed term parliament act which was one of the most popular policies ever passed by Parliament.

Will there be checks on EU imports in January? I doubt it,that will be the 5th or 6th time that will be 'postponed'. Rees Mogg on the last time the can was kicked down the road was candid in saying it was 'an act of self-harm' which of course it is.
Until that is implemented brexit hasn't fully happened,it may never as who is going to do that to many who are already only surviving?

But it has to cut both ways lapsy. If the EU allow our goods in, we can do the same. Meanwhile we are busy finding alternative sources of most products so that we can tell them to get stuffed.

They allow your goods in with'checks'Sageform,you are supposed to reciprocate that,that however involves costs. That in turn is passed onto the consumer. Not sure the telling them to get stuffed plan is wise, i don't see too much,small talk with Pacific thing,Oz and India? not a lot in them.
Simple answer was to agree with EU standards, it was pig headness from the ERG mob and i'm not sure there is an answer except  that.

The EU must be laughing really, they have frictionless trade while subjecting their checks on you,a severe disadvantage for UK exporters to the EU.

It is always the exporters from UK to EU who shout loudest. Plenty of UK firms are expanding because they don't have to compete with subsidised EU competitors any more. And it is not hard to move production into or out of the EU to avoid the border issues. Nissan seem to prefer to be here. The mass unemployment forecast by Remainers has happened in other places but not in UK. Hence the continued migration which we all hear so much about.

Don't know about that,didn't leaver Dyson up sticks to Singapore? They must be delighted, corpo tax and employment which in theory should have stayed in the UK.
No mass unemployment as plenty of 'low paid' jobs can't be filled and the answer to that is asking people from India,Nigeria,Uganda etc to fill them.I don't know an answer to solve that but that seems the 'solution' in play.
Unemployment numbers are so changed from say 30 years ago, what is the criteria to fall into that? Sickness numbers,economically inactive numbers would if added together would be an eye opener.

They used to quote number of employees highest ever

That's gone quiet as folk simply retire earlier
and leave statistics.

Not many of my mates still grafting and no state
pension. No benefits neither.

Not too sure why the EU should be laughing at the UK for the awful trade deal they have 'given' us as it appears to have affected them more badly than us, not surprising as we have a large trade deficit with the EU. Germany are predicting to report a double dip recession at the end of the year have really shot themselves in the foot. I used to provide technical support for traders in Frankfurt and they have lost business to London. A sensible trade deal would be beneficial to all concerned but the political leaders in Brussels appear to be oblivious to this.

No shortage of German, French, Spanish or Polish cars on Britain's roads.

All on the never-never of course.

No change as of yet regarding the EU imports into the UK,ie no checks,red tape etc,whereas UK to EU exports are subject to those.

Surely it has to be a good thing for EU exporters? Saying that it is currently a good thing for UK consumers as they would have to pay those costs.

I don't think it is a legal requirement for the UK to do those checks but if the EU are doing them to the UK they really should.

Why have they been postponed so many times? Back to Rees Mogg again for the answer.

There are no checks on imports from the EU because UK industry and the UK's food supply chain depends on EU imports.

Absolutely none or the independence the Brexiteers so craved has come to pass.

Brexit has been and remains a total sh!tshow.

A brief timeline of foodbanks:

1997 - The Trussell Trust is founded. Labour comes to power.
2004 - UK has 2 foodbanks.
2008 - Global financial crash. UK has 22 foodbanks.
2010 - Tories come to power.
2023 - UK has 2,572 foodbanks.

GDP growth 2022 , 2023 ( cumulative )

U.K.      4.6
Italy      4.4
USA.     4.2
EU.        4.0
France   3.5
Germany1.3

We are +0.5 for 23,and I don't recall 22 being such a good year.

Maybe you have a link

Eastbourne Enoch

With misleading figures again.

UK's GDP vastly inflated recently by high gas prices. All this extra money went to the energy companies because Rishi refused to enact a windfall tax.

This Christmas, wonderful produce made in Essex will be enjoyed by people across Britain and around the world. That's why I have called on the government to reduce the trade barriers on exporters so that Britian’s finest produce can be enjoyed all across the globe

Beautiful foinirony from priteh patel

2023 growth rates are IMF forecasts
based on data up to Q3

Government debt to GDP (% IMF and OBR data )

Italy - 144
USA - 123
France - 110
U.K. - 89
Germany - 66

Britain is steadily and surely taking advantage
of Brexit freedoms

Public sector net debt (PSND ex) was £2,599.0 billion at the end of September 2023 and was provisionally estimated at around 97.8% of the UK's annual gross domestic product (GDP); this is 2.1 percentage points higher than in September 2022 and continues at levels last seen in the early 1960s.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/september2023

..

When something free is on offer, demand will rise. Just look at the NHS. Some people are in genuine need and the biggest problem is cost of housing which is absurd but for every one who can't afford food, there are 10 on the cadge. We had a free monthly lunch in the village and most of us made a voluntary donation but a few greedy ones were piling their plates and then putting another helping in a bag to take home and were sneering at those of us who didn't. They certainly didn't look poor or hungry.

Of course people will have a free lunch as your attendance proves.

Well done for chipping in.

See house of Commons subsidised restaurant.

Of course. Anywhere that people can get something for nothing or even cheaper than next door will attract its share of greedy oiks. There is a fine line between looking for good deals and taking advantage of good hearted generosity. And no I did not have a free lunch. A lot of it was gone when my wife and I arrived but we still paid the equivalent of a cafe price for what we had. That money went to pay for the next free meals.

Latest brexit benefit - a new law that will allow Govt to monitor bank accounts of State Pensions . Against  EU privacy laws

No quotes from the Guardian today yhtl.
Maybe because the economic editor of the paper ,belatedly ,begrudgingly explains very slowly and carefully why the UK should not rejoin the EU.
The europhile fanatics at the BBC ,BOE and the civil service will take a bit more convincing, I expect.

Few people want to rejoin the EU. Lots of people want to rejoin the single market which we never voted to leave!!!!

Eastbourne Enoch
Britain is steadily and surely taking advantage
of Brexit freedoms


Do tell us more

The Government has revoked or reformed over 1000 laws since our exit.

You can eat your popcorn and reduce your ignorance at the same time - Win , Win  Nobby.

The Government has revoked or reformed over 1000 laws since our exit.

And how has this made the country any better to live or work in? How has the environment improved?

The simple answer is Brexit was a huge waste of time and money and hasn't fulfilled anyone's expectations. Even Farage says it's been a ****-up

The law allowing snooping on pensioners bank accounts
is a great brexit benefit outlawed in EU

I'm all for it for starters - catch more of the crooks and the cheats.

Guardian... Lol

British workers are missing out on £10,700 a year after more than a decade of weak economic growth and high inequality, according to a major report warning that UK living standards are falling behind comparable rich nations.

In a damning report on the economy, the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance called for an urgent rethink of economic strategy after 15 years of relative decline.

It said a living standards gap worth £8,300 had opened up between typical households in Britain and their average peers in Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands, and blamed a “toxic combination” of low growth and high inequality.

The result of a three-year inquiry by a group of the nation’s top academics, businesspeople and policymakers, the study warned that a generation of younger adults was being failed in particular – with 9 million having never worked in an economy with sustained average wage rises.

Rishi Sunak is preparing for a general election campaign next year with households continuing to come under strain from the cost of living crisis, and the Conservatives facing heavy fire over their economic record after 13 years in government.

With the government trailing Labour in the polls, the prime minister last month declared victory on his primary target to halve the UK’s inflation rate this year while hailing tax cuts in last month’s autumn statement to ease pressure on working families.

In a speech at the launch of the Resolution Foundation and LSE’s Economy 2030 Inquiry report on Monday, Keir Starmer will say that firing up Britain’s economy will have to “become Labour’s obsession” in government to reverse years of Tory mismanagement.

However, he will caution that an incoming Labour administration would face “huge constraints” on increasing spending on public services with government finances left in a precarious state by years of lacklustre economic performance hitting the exchequer.

“Anyone who expects an incoming Labour government to quickly turn on the spending taps is going to be disappointed,” Starmer will say.

Responding to the near 300-page report Ending Stagnation, Starmer will say the findings from the country’s leading economists confirm stark contrasts between 2010 and today. Arguing that “Britain’s standing is diminished,” he will say growth is stagnant and public services on their knees.

“Taxes are higher than at any time since the war, none of which was true in 2010. Never before has a British government asked its people to pay so much for so little.”

Having pushed back against talk of Britain’s economic decline earlier this year, the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is expected to speak before Starmer’s address to the same launch event fresh from last month’s autumn statement.

A spokesperson for the Treasury said the Office for Budget Responsibility was forecasting the autumn statement to deliver the “largest boost to potential growth on record”, after the chancellor sought to blunt the highest levels of taxation since the second world war with cuts to national insurance contributions and support for business investment.

“We have halved the number of people on low pay with increases to the ‘national living wage’ and, thanks to above-inflation increases to tax allowances, we have also saved the average earner over £1,000 a year since 2010,” they said.

However, the Resolution Foundation and LSE’s report found that existing plans for reversing decline were “not serious” and had been founded in the belief that “‘world-beating’ rhetoric automatically translates into a ‘world-beating’ reality”

Chaired by Minouche Shafik, a former Bank of England deputy governor, and Clive Cowdery, the insurance magnate and founder of the Resolution Foundation, the report warned that household incomes were not on track to reach the peak recorded before the cost of living crisis until 2027 at the earliest.

Finding that the UK had been catching up with more productive countries like France, Germany and the US during the 1990s and early 2000s, it said progress had gone into reverse since the 2008 financial crisis. If Britain could close its average income and inequality gaps with these countries, it said the typical household would be 25% (£8,300) better off, with income gains of 37% for the poorest families.

It said average wages after inflation is taken into account were no higher than before the banking collapse 15 years ago. If wages had continued to grow at their pre-2008 pace, it said the average wage today would be £43,000 rather than £32,300.

Highlighting a gap in performance with comparable rich nations, it said that poor households in Britain were now £4,300 worse off than their French and German counterparts, leaving them struggling to cope in the cost of living crisis.

However, while warning that the challenges faced by Britain were “huge”, it said they were not insurmountable. The report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation charity, said the country needed to focus on its services sector, prioritise public and private investment, expand Britain’s largest cities, and raise the number of opportunities for higher-quality jobs in every town.

Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said: “The task facing the UK is to urgently embark on a new path. A new economic strategy built not on nostalgia or wishful thinking but our actual strengths, along with honesty about the scale of change needed and the trade-offs involved. It’s time for Britain to start investing in our future, rather than living off our past.”


...

If the government was serious about catching crooks and cheats then Boris Johnson and Michelle Mone would have been interviewed under caution.

Britain is the only rich economy where food prices are still rising by more than 10pc, according to data that highlights the challenge facing the Bank of England as it battles to bring down inflation.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/britain-only-rich-nation-where-164615698.html

Oh to live in a "rich economy" - How lucky we all are.

Maybe we could live in a "poor economy" and not make the list ...?

I assume that's the brexiters plan, nothing else makes sense.