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politicspunter
10 May 21 10:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 34,150 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Batley_and_Spen_by-election

A by election to be held after Tracy Brabin was elected Mayor of West Yorkshire
Pause Switch to Standard View Batley and Spen by election
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Report jumper3 July 2, 2021 7:54 AM BST
Yes, the only poll pre count you can really rely on is the post voting exit poll, which do come in fairly bang on. When I went to bed, it was all 70% turn out as well. Barely 48%.
Report lfc1971 July 2, 2021 7:55 AM BST
‘ The bit that convinces me tories will win is to ask who is likely to turn up at the polls to vote ?
White elderly leavers ‘
Report lfc1971 July 2, 2021 8:02 AM BST
Labour price on the drift today again . It’s almost impossible to make a case as to why they might hold this seat ‘
( 30th June )
Report Cider July 2, 2021 8:06 AM BST
What clueless numpty posted that?
Report Cider July 2, 2021 8:09 AM BST
Tory vote apathetic, pretty sure the lockdown extension and Hancock's shenanigans cost them turning the seat over. Doesn't sound like the Tory machine was too bothered about it either.
Report A_T July 2, 2021 8:25 AM BST
Is this what is generally known as a hollow victory Grin

Labour will be very pleased - they'd have had a big majority were it not for the presence of their stalker
Report A_T July 2, 2021 8:40 AM BST
Tory vote apathetic, pretty sure the lockdown extension and Hancock's shenanigans cost them turning the seat over. Doesn't sound like the Tory machine was too bothered about it either.


ah good old cognitive dissonance
Report Cider July 2, 2021 8:40 AM BST
Opposition majority evaporated in a mid term by election. In a by election characterised by the left eating itself. If they are very pleased by that, just wait for how they feel when a great outcome comes along!
Report Cider July 2, 2021 8:47 AM BST
ah good old cognitive dissonance


If you feel that the lockdown extension, and Hancock laughing in our faces had no impact on the Tory vote whatsoever, well, you're entitled to your opinion. Unlike you I posted my opinions on this before the result.
Report HGS July 2, 2021 9:11 AM BST
Such a small margin, I'd be in pretty much no doubt, the Hancock debacle has won this for Labour. Galloway nearly did the damage and got more votes than I thought he would.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 9:13 AM BST
I didn't think the cat could get
that many votes and Labour win the seat.

Some real odd goings on here

Big inquest into how it happened.


Obviously huge labour effort last
36 hours has pulled it off, but
there's a few tories stayed home Shirley.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 9:39 AM BST
Must be Donny. It was a crazy last 24 hours on the campaign trail. Everyone thought the tories would win and Labour only had an outside chance but a huge on the day Labour effort turned things around. If it was known beforehand what Galloways total was going to be, I wouldn't have given Labour a hope. Hancock must surely have impacted the tory vote, probably leading to apathy rather than anything else. The extreme right wing parties also took more votes than the tories would have required to win.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 9:45 AM BST
Meanwhile in Raabshire

Cobham and Downside (Elmbridge) result:

LDEM: 49.8% (+18.4)
CON: 43.5% (-3.9)
GRN: 3.0% (+3.0)
LAB: 2.6% (-6.1)
REFUK: 1.1% (+1.1)

Liberal Democrat GAIN Conservative

No UKIP (-12.5) as prev.





I'm even thinking some daft tories
must have voted for galloway
to ensure Labour finished 3rd.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 9:47 AM BST
It's about a 3% swing lab to con
in batley.

But huge churn, got to be.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 9:56 AM BST
No doubt at all about it Donny, tories voted for Galloway.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 9:58 AM BST
Tories, or new tories who voted
Labour all their lives who couldnt
vote for a gay candidate imposed
by the kneeler?
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 10:01 AM BST
Who knows their motivation but if they had turned up for the tories, they would have won.
Report jollyswagman July 2, 2021 10:02 AM BST
at the last general election there was an independent who got 6,400 votes and ukip got over 1600, its a very complicated picture in batley and spen.
Report Dr Crippen July 2, 2021 10:05 AM BST
Great result for the Tories.
It means a challenge to Starmer's leadership is less likely.

The Tories will be happy with that.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 10:09 AM BST

Jul 2, 2021 -- 4:02AM, jollyswagman wrote:


at the last general election there was an independent who got 6,400 votes and ukip got over 1600, its a very complicated picture in batley and spen.


Yes, it's always a good battleground seat.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 10:12 AM BST
Yeah and those indies were right wing
the heavy industry man not
standing should have benefited the
tories.

He was approached by yorkshire
party and re **** to stand for them.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 10:13 AM BST
REFUK
Report Cider July 2, 2021 10:15 AM BST
A constituency that includes a significant community that doesn't share the values of the country they live in, and an incredibly toxic by election in that constituency. Purely a coincidence I'm sure.
Report darkmatter July 2, 2021 10:27 AM BST
As well as the minority right wing parties total exceeding 323 the absence of the Green Party could also have helped Labour. Green Party supporters tend to be active voters and invariably previous Labour supporters. Without a candidate they would probably hold their noses and vote Labour rather than Galloway who they despise. They have been steadily increasing their share and probably would have got close to the Lib Dem figure, certainly more than 323.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 10:27 AM BST
George Galloway to take legal action to try and overturn a by-election result.
He announced the same thing after losing in Bradford  in 2015, and nothing more was heard of it


Packed his bags and said goodbye to the circus

Off he went with a trumpity trumpity trump
Report Timber July 2, 2021 10:31 AM BST

Jul 2, 2021 -- 4:15AM, Cider wrote:


A constituency that includes a significant community that doesn't share the values of the country they live in, and an incredibly toxic by election in that constituency. Purely a coincidence I'm sure.


BATLEY AND SPEN

Thanks for the info, one place I will avoid like the plague

Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 10:35 AM BST

Jul 2, 2021 -- 4:27AM, darkmatter wrote:


As well as the minority right wing parties total exceeding 323 the absence of the Green Party could also have helped Labour. Green Party supporters tend to be active voters and invariably previous Labour supporters. Without a candidate they would probably hold their noses and vote Labour rather than Galloway who they despise. They have been steadily increasing their share and probably would have got close to the Lib Dem figure, certainly more than 323.


Yes, good point. The Greens have been doing particularly well in some areas recently.

Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 10:46 AM BST
2021-07-02
08:10    232921074868    2021-05-11
08:04    Politics / UK - By-Elections/ Batley and Spen By-Election / Conservative
Lay        1.10    500.00    Won        500.00   
    2021-07-02
08:10    232921005737    2021-05-11
08:02    Politics / UK - By-Elections/ Batley and Spen By-Election / Conservative
Lay        1.10    200.00    Won        200.00   
2021-07-02
08:10    232920694643    2021-05-11
07:49    Politics / UK - By-Elections/ Batley and Spen By-Election / Conservative
Lay        1.05    99.77    Won        99.77   

It will never cease to amaze me the crazy prices some obsessed party supporters take.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 10:48 AM BST
Buying a market position to
generate bookies comments

Seems standard now
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 10:49 AM BST
Been long odds on last 3 by elections

At least they got a payoot
at Hartlepool.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 10:51 AM BST
2021-06-18
07:54    232935758672    2021-05-11
13:18    Politics / UK - By-Elections/ Chesham and Amersham By-Election / Conservatives
Lay        1.04    100.00    Won   

Same story in Chesham and Amersham though.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 10:54 AM BST
Some punters that are totally tied to their party are the lifeblood of political betting. Anti Corbyn, anti Trump, won't ever support  or back Labour/conservative/Nationalist...you name it, they will never change.
Report sofiakenny July 2, 2021 10:56 AM BST
Morning pp hope the missus is progressing well.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 10:58 AM BST
Lots of other markets are similar
with folk betting what they want
to happen.

Scottish bookies will have
a skinner if England win euros.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 11:00 AM BST
Thank you kenny, operation went great but have been some issues post op. She is making a little progress every day now though and the staff here at Addenbrookes are fabulous.
Report Cider July 2, 2021 11:05 AM BST
How about posting all the bets you had on the market.
Report Timber July 2, 2021 11:10 AM BST

Jul 2, 2021 -- 5:05AM, Cider wrote:


How about posting all the bets you had on the market.


Grin

Those bets look legit, no way they could possibly be editedLaugh

Report Cider July 2, 2021 11:10 AM BST
People who do lots of trading with often dozens of backs and lays, both winning and losing, and then only post their best priced wins on the trading, are, erm, bluffers at best.
Report Timber July 2, 2021 11:11 AM BST
A screenshot of the p&l from the market would be more believable
Report LoyalHoncho July 2, 2021 11:59 AM BST
George Galloway going for the jugular.  His post-election court action is/seems very justified as the local council have over-ridden the law.  Can he win a re-vote?
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 12:02 PM BST
Cat in the hat?
Report frog1000 July 2, 2021 12:21 PM BST
Like the way some traders post one side of their trades after the results are out.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 12:27 PM BST
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
NEC source tells me Labour has already acted to suspend several party members who were found to have supported Galloway. They got suspension letters on eve of polling day and polling day itself.
11:18 am · 2 Jul 2021·Twitter for Android
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 12:39 PM BST
Great from corbyn congratulating
winning candidate.


Well done @kimleadbeater. Now begins the process of bringing a fractured community together. I’m sure she’ll make the people of #BatleyAndSpen proud - and that she will represent them all.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 12:40 PM BST
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/07/labour-held-batley-and-spen-against-odds-attracting-new-voters
.
Report Timber July 2, 2021 1:01 PM BST

Jul 2, 2021 -- 6:39AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Great from corbyn congratulatingwinning candidate.Well done @kimleadbeater. Now begins the process of bringing a fractured community together. I’m sure she’ll make the people of #BatleyAndSpen proud - and that she will represent them all.


LaughLaughLaugh

Report alun2005 July 2, 2021 1:06 PM BST
That is indeed hilarious from Corbyn. I'm absolutely sure that the many allegedly 'peace-loving' people in that 'fractured community' who want to kill gay and lesbian people EVERYWHERE will, as one, now magically put their profound hatred to one side...
Report alun2005 July 2, 2021 1:08 PM BST
btw...I hope everyone took my tip about the magic powers of Postman Plod delivering votes and constituencies for Labour, and lumped on.
Report casemoney July 2, 2021 1:42 PM BST
George nearly got them turned over again Laugh Dreadful scenes of Labour campaigners being attacked by extremists ,were the national front in the Area please Laugh
Report casemoney July 2, 2021 1:49 PM BST
Was there a recount ?
Report casemoney July 2, 2021 2:01 PM BST
Well done PP and Alun , anyone know the percentage of Georges Worker Party Voters that actually work ?
Report boxingthefox July 2, 2021 2:06 PM BST
A poxy by-election won by 300 + votes, what an earth shattering moment, NOT, FFS. Crazy
Report lfc1971 July 2, 2021 3:21 PM BST
‘ you have to say that perhaps this seat was lost irrespective of the labour candidate
Galloway has simply made it probable beyond doubt ‘
Report macarony July 2, 2021 4:01 PM BST
Was this a good result for the Conservatives? some say if Labour had lost the Starmar would have gone
Report Giuseppe July 2, 2021 4:04 PM BST
from what I've seen, Galloway was running as the Muslim candidate not the Labour candidate

is that fair?
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 4:06 PM BST
I think both main parties can take something from the result. It was a very competitive seat, as it normally is, with the result a coin toss at the end. The main issue with the seat was Galloway and the ease with which he achieved his remarkable share of the vote, without a fraction of the manpower or organisation of the main protagonists.
Report casemoney July 2, 2021 4:40 PM BST
Got to thing majority George vote from Labour
Report casemoney July 2, 2021 4:40 PM BST
Think
Report Giuseppe July 2, 2021 4:41 PM BST
how many white people voted for George?
Report lfc1971 July 2, 2021 4:51 PM BST
‘ I still don’t see the tories as a cert for this constituency
Batley and Spen has been labour since 97
And stranger things have happened than their wholly unfit candidate getting elected ‘ -

Spot on alun2005
Report lfc1971 July 2, 2021 4:56 PM BST
‘ If that was correct , no reason it isn’t , would that not suggest that the tories
must be certanties to win “
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2021 5:57 PM BST
Easy lay 1.2 this time yesterday
for those that knew.

Well done.

Pick a cruise.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2021 5:59 PM BST
Politics For All
@PoliticsForAlI
·
8h
Police cars revolving light | NEW: Tory chair Amanda Milling says

‘It was disappointing but actually we didn’t lose, we just didn’t win’
Report Timber July 2, 2021 5:59 PM BST
More aftertiming bollocks from Donny
Report Timber July 2, 2021 6:03 PM BST
The aftertimes arms must have reopened.

Donny and pea brained punter sipping tepid tap water out of ladies glasses
Report politicspunter July 3, 2021 7:39 AM BST
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57695098

Nazia Iqbal said it was the right result and that "Kim will unite people".

She said the election campaign had left her very anxious and claimed George Galloway was "divisive".

"My personal experience was that I had somebody knocking on my door and said to me 'Will you vote for George?' and I said no.

"And, instead of telling me the merits of voting for George, he said 'Well you're failing as a Muslim' and 'How are you going to face God on the day of judgement because you're failing the Palestinian people'.

"That was offensive to me and it was inappropriate. Tell me why based on his merits and what he is going to do for us why I should vote for him, not the fact that if I don't vote for him I'm a bad Muslim.

"I felt that was manipulative and inappropriate and a lot of people have been swayed by that.

Ms Iqbal said that Palestine was a "massive issue", but thought that "we need to deal with our local issues", including higher that average child poverty in the town.

Worrying times
Report Cider July 3, 2021 8:54 AM BST
Galloway is just tapping into the hatred that already exists in that area (and others), coming from the islamist extremists. He's a political opportunist. What do people expect to happen when a way of life is imported into this country that is in direct conflict to the prevailing values of the country as a whole. The paedo gangs, predominately asian Muslim men perps and white underage girl victims have been going on for decades in out towns, and still are, largely ignored by the institutions. That is nothing to do with Galloway.
Report Timber July 3, 2021 9:05 AM BST

Jul 3, 2021 -- 2:54AM, Cider wrote:


Galloway is just tapping into the hatred that already exists in that area (and others), coming from the islamist extremists. He's a political opportunist. What do people expect to happen when a way of life is imported into this country that is in direct conflict to the prevailing values of the country as a whole. The paedo gangs, predominately asian Muslim men perps and white underage girl victims have been going on for decades in out towns, and still are, largely ignored by the institutions. That is nothing to do with Galloway.


About time we imported some of their medieval punishment for such people

Report Cider July 3, 2021 9:09 AM BST
Graham Stringer (Labour MP) was doing the media rounds yesterday, and fair play to him. Instead of dodging the issues facing us, like most politicians do, he acknowledged them. And said we should be actively supporting our shared values as a country, whatever the traditional political allegiances.
Report HGS July 3, 2021 9:28 AM BST
Who knew? Where's the cat going next?
Report Timber July 3, 2021 9:51 AM BST
Good old George, a repugnant POS. Wonder where he has all that cash stashed that Maddas gave to him?
Report HGS July 3, 2021 10:13 AM BST
Quite.
Report Timber July 3, 2021 10:19 AM BST
The left used to wax lyrical and pine over George...until he backed Brexit
Report A_T July 3, 2021 11:53 AM BST
Galloway was thrown out of Labour years before anyone thought of Brexit. Tony Benn would have backed Brexit but his legacy is still highly respected by the left
Report Timber July 3, 2021 11:55 AM BST

Jul 3, 2021 -- 5:53AM, A_T wrote:


Galloway was thrown out of Labour years before anyone thought of Brexit. Tony Benn would have backed Brexit but his legacy is still highly respected by the left


2003Surprised

Report A_T July 3, 2021 11:58 AM BST
another nutty conspiracy theorist

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1411272102297100291
Report Timber July 3, 2021 12:03 PM BST
Artificial troll finds it impossible to comprehend that the govt don't have his best interest at heart Crazy
Report A_T July 3, 2021 12:15 PM BST
Timber is your username a reference to the last word you heard being shouted when you were walking in the woods and felt a bang on your head?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 3, 2021 3:12 PM BST
How did Labour cling on to Batley and Spen?

While shedding support in Batley proper + Heckmondwike, mostly to Galloway, it netted new support in the Conservative and Lib Dem leaning areas of the Spenborough valley.

BE's @bnhwalker has the lowdown:

https://t.co/gSvSaswGFi
Report politicspunter July 4, 2021 10:16 AM BST
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/04/the-observer-view-on-the-batley-and-spen-byelection-campaign-and-result
.
The Observer summary of the by election.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 4, 2021 12:08 PM BST
No doubt there will be some serious research
that will not get published, carried out by all
parties.
Report politicspunter July 4, 2021 12:11 PM BST
The most worrying thing by far, to me, is the bbc report where a resident was being castigated for not voting in a particular way, as her religion demanded. This is very dangerous territory.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 4, 2021 12:17 PM BST
It's crazy that folk use negative
tactics, but they work.

BBC fed stories from tory central
office, treat with care.
Report politicspunter July 4, 2021 12:20 PM BST
It's this one that concerns me Donny. It seems completely genuine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57695098

Nazia Iqbal said it was the right result and that "Kim will unite people".

She said the election campaign had left her very anxious and claimed George Galloway was "divisive".

"My personal experience was that I had somebody knocking on my door and said to me 'Will you vote for George?' and I said no.

"And, instead of telling me the merits of voting for George, he said 'Well you're failing as a Muslim' and 'How are you going to face God on the day of judgement because you're failing the Palestinian people'.

"That was offensive to me and it was inappropriate. Tell me why based on his merits and what he is going to do for us why I should vote for him, not the fact that if I don't vote for him I'm a bad Muslim.

"I felt that was manipulative and inappropriate and a lot of people have been swayed by that.

Ms Iqbal said that Palestine was a "massive issue", but thought that "we need to deal with our local issues", including higher that average child poverty in the town.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 4, 2021 12:22 PM BST
Yeah, I saw it, but it's also
playing into tory narrative
so they want it broadcast.

You just have to read on here
to know what the position is
Report politicspunter July 4, 2021 12:26 PM BST
You can see how that tactic could corrupt our whole electoral system, if adopted by the wrong persons?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 4, 2021 12:30 PM BST
It already has.

Likely we'll get local
kids in their dingies
paddling on Huddersfield canal

With some bully from home office
telling them to get home
for their teas.

You know the stuff



Plant some journos on a warship
and sail it through disputed
water the week before by election

Start a fish war in Channel islands
the day before a by election.

These things are shockers but
they lap it up.

Losing netenyahoo a big blow
to tories, as was trump.
Report nineteen points July 4, 2021 12:37 PM BST
so the 2 above think its wrong for folk knocking on doors bullying them and blackmailing them into voting the way they want.yet think its fine for our govt to do the same to us regarding vaccines and health choice

hypocrisy at its very best Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 4, 2021 1:05 PM BST
Labour     Kim Leadbeater     13,296    
Conservative     Ryan Stephenson 12,973
Workers Party     George Galloway     8,264    
Liberal Democrats     Tom Gordon     1,254
Yorkshire     Corey Robinson     816
English Democrat  Thérèse Hirst     207    
UKIP     Jack Thomson     151
Monster Raving Loony     Howling Laud Hope 107    Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 104    
CPA     Paul Bickerdike     102   
Freedom Alliance     Jonathon Tilt     100    
For Britain     Anne Marie Waters     97    
Rejoin EU     Andrew Smith     75    
SDP     Ollie Purser     66
Independent     Jayda Fransen     50
Heritage     Susan Laird     33
Report politicspunter July 6, 2021 9:22 AM BST
politicspunter • June 27, 2021 7:15 PM BST
From the Daily Mail...

A senior Tory source involved in the campaign said: 'We are worried about Galloway. The question mark is all about turnout.

'We have got to get our vote out, and we should win it. I think Galloway will hoover up the Muslim vote - almost all of it.

'He should get around 12,000 votes - although it depends on turnout. If we get 14,000 we should be alright. Labour look like getting 6,000.

'Galloway is the threat. Labour is f*****.'

They added: 'No doubt about it, I think Galloway has destroyed the Labour Party in this seat.

I was trying to work out some figures according to this on the spot report from the constituency. Galloway would get roughly 33%.  Smarkets have a market up where they are offering 5.3 on Galloway getting 15% or more. If that report is correct (I am not saying it is) that Smarkets price looks crazy.


That Tory source was right enough about Galloway.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 6, 2021 12:59 PM BST
Bizarre, and where did the 7k
extra labour come from, as he
wasn't far out on 14k tory
votes.

I really thought he was being
mischievous with his comments.
(maybe he still was?)

But oddly got 2 out of 3 right
yet was miles out on Labour,
Report politicspunter July 6, 2021 1:01 PM BST
My thoughts exactly, but he was on the ball with a good chunk of it.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 6, 2021 1:04 PM BST
Betting suggested the poll watchers
knew it wasn't a 1/5 job.

I suspect I would have done badly
as a punter on this.

The ferrari arrived just in time
for tory layers.
Report politicspunter July 6, 2021 1:15 PM BST
I found that the betting was extremely volatile which gave a decent opportunity, as always, of coming out with a decent profit. I am still astonished about how close Galloway came to winning this. It would have been a nightmare result for me, betting wise.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 6, 2021 1:20 PM BST
I had written him off.
Report politicspunter July 6, 2021 1:28 PM BST
I had him getting absolute max 20% and didn't give him much hope of achieving it.
Report xmoneyx July 7, 2021 4:19 AM BST
whats the diff between george galloway an a gypsy ?

a gypsy has been to less constituencies
Report politicspunter July 7, 2021 8:57 AM BST
A girl goes to the doctors with greenish skin on the inside of her thighs. Doctor gives her some ointment and tells her to come back the next week. She returns and the condition is worse. Doctor asks if her boyfriend is a gypsy which she affirms. Tell him his earrings aren't gold.
Report Timber July 7, 2021 10:35 AM BST
Laugh
Report alun2005 November 12, 2021 10:23 AM GMT
Stewards Enquiry looming on the narrow victory?

Not before time either from what we've learned this week.

.
https://order-order.com/2021/11/12/new-galloway-files-legal-challenge-of-batley-by-election-over-labours-failure-to-declare-use-of-mps-offices-to-phone-bank/

.
https://order-order.com/2021/11/11/more-labour-mps-caught-red-handed-phone-banking-from-parliament/
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