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lfc1971
31 Jan 21 09:11
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Date Joined: 06 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 250,989 | Blogger: lfc1971's blog
Experts say after a 95% drop
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Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:02 PM GMT
I don't know about the UK, these figures are England and Wales. My understanding is that not many care home residents go to hospital for covid treatment. They are dnr.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:03 PM GMT
Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes accounted for over one-third of all deaths in care homes in Week 2 (36.0%), an increase from Week 1 (28.3%).
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:05 PM GMT
I'm simply saying: Your statistic from your 2:36 PM post doesn't say what you want it to say unless you can accompany them with clear figures on how many (or little) of the hospital deaths were residents in care homes.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:06 PM GMT
You cannot judge that it wasn't care home residents just because people didn't actually die in the care home.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:06 PM GMT
So 36% of care home deaths went down as covid deaths, yet excess deaths in care homes was negligible. That means if covid didn't exist, care home deaths in theory would be 36% excess negative. From a stats pov that is absurd. It's apparent that 'normal' deaths are being reported as covid deaths.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:10 PM GMT
As above, the breakdown is provided by the ONS. 36% of care home deaths were reported as covid, but there are no excess deaths in care homes (the actual figure was 405)
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:11 PM GMT
But it's place of death, not place of residency at death. That's the point.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:13 PM GMT
Yeah obviously. You only have to look at the graph in the link I posted, and compare excess deaths in care homes for the first and second wave.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:14 PM GMT
There are next none in the second wave (comparatively)
Report moisok January 31, 2021 2:14 PM GMT
we are having our chain pulled over these 'covid' deaths
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:17 PM GMT
There is actually a separate source for care home residents, as linked to by the page you gave

From Week 1 2021 (week ending 8 January 2021) onwards we have published a dataset of weekly deaths to care home residents. The term "care home resident" used in this dataset refers to all deaths where either (a) the death occurred in a care home or (b) the death occurred elsewhere but the place of residence of the deceased was recorded as a care home. The figures should not be confused with "deaths in care homes" as reported within this article, which refers only to category (a).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/carehomeresidentdeathsregisteredinenglandandwalesprovisional

That says there were about three thousand covid-19 related deaths in the first two weeks of the year. Whether that's negligible or noteworthy is for you to decide.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:17 PM GMT
In fact, it's probably less likely that care home residents suffering from any illness are sent to hospital currently.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:21 PM GMT
Excess deaths were negligible. That's the point here. The data strongly suggests that the majority of those 3000 would have died anyway, but are being reported as covid deaths. ie in 2019 they would likely have been reported as flu.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:23 PM GMT
Is it practice in England and Wales to put Covid-19 on the death certificate without having tested for it?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:23 PM GMT
When assessing data, you detach the human element, it's reviewing numbers. Obviously any death is tragic for friends and family (though death is an inevitable part of life).
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:26 PM GMT
I already posted, 13/14 deaths of people who die with flu and a covid positive death are being certified with covid being the primary cause. However the data suggests they would have died anyway if covid didn't exist. The data is clear on that.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:28 PM GMT
It's not just a reporting/technical thing, the fact that they are being reported as covid deaths is affecting all policy making, therefore all of our lives.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:33 PM GMT
8349 dies in care homes in the first two weeks of 2021 compared to 6667 for the 2015 to 2019 average.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:34 PM GMT

Jan 31, 2021 -- 8:23AM, Cider wrote:


When assessing data, you detach the human element, it's reviewing numbers. Obviously any death is tragic for friends and family (though death is an inevitable part of life).


Why do you not even look at the data closely, link to the place of death stats instead of residency at death stats and only refer to graphs instead of the downloadable numbers?

Report edy January 31, 2021 2:36 PM GMT
If we gonna do numbers, let's do the numbers right instead of superficially.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:40 PM GMT
Week 1 was affected by bank holidays.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:41 PM GMT
So only week 2 can be assessed with any confidence in stable figures, ie like for like.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:41 PM GMT
Was week 1 2021 affected by bank holidays in different ways than it was in other years?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 2:42 PM GMT
The bank holidays fall on different days (obviously) and in some years, different weeks. This is stated in the dataset.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:51 PM GMT
I have to say that's a bit bizarre. The ONS numbers are being presented with a delay of multiple weeks. I see they name them in the notes, but with delayed numbers they really shouldn't have any influence.
Report edy January 31, 2021 2:55 PM GMT
Surely the influence would be mostly negligible with the average.

And the first week 2021 numbers should be ok too. There was enough remaining time in the week after the bank holiday to register the deaths. January 1st was a Friday. So much time to get up to speed. I don't see how the bank holiday in that week falsified anything. Do you?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 3:16 PM GMT
It does affect the data. Week 2 was the 'clean' week.

Anyway, it's pretty clear.

Care home resident death all causes week 17 2020 = 9015

Care home resident death all causes week 2 2021 = 3786
Report edy January 31, 2021 3:18 PM GMT
But why and how would it have affected the data? Can you be a bit more precise and clear about why it would with so much time to catch up?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 3:19 PM GMT
Correction week 2 2021 was 4239

If you want to use week 1, this was 4110.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 3:21 PM GMT
I don't know exactly, resources I guess. That's what the ONS states. It's not very relevant as week 2 is higher than week 1 in 2021.
Report Mexico January 31, 2021 3:22 PM GMT
Week1 in 2021 was Monday 4th January to Sunday 10th January

https://www.epochconverter.com/weeks/2021
Report Cider January 31, 2021 3:23 PM GMT
It's just more straight forward to use a benchmark week that isn't impacted by bank holidays.
Report edy January 31, 2021 3:28 PM GMT

Jan 31, 2021 -- 9:22AM, Mexico wrote:


Week1 in 2021 was Monday 4th January to Sunday 10th January https://www.epochconverter.com/weeks/2021


Maybe so in general, but not in the ONS data.  They have January 8 and January 15 as the respective ends of week 1 and 2 in

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/carehomeresidentdeathsregisteredinenglandandwalesprovisional

Report Mexico January 31, 2021 3:50 PM GMT
Fair enough Edy.

Are the statistics for the day of death or the day recorded?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 3:59 PM GMT
Date registered.

It's pretty obvious looking at weeks 51 and 52 pre pandemic this is bank holiday affected. It's not clear why edy refuses to acknowledge this.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:07 PM GMT
A christmas week is different to one tiny bank holiday on the very first day of the week.

If they can register 9000 care home deaths in the one week you pointed out, there is no reason why they wouldn't be able to catch up 600 or so deaths that will have happened on January 1st.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:10 PM GMT
And if you are on about a carry over from the end of december, then that will be very similar in every year. I.e there will be a similar carry over in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 as there is in 2021.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:10 PM GMT
-> making the 2021 numbers comparable to the average.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:13 PM GMT
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/impactofregistrationdelaysonmortalitystatisticsinenglandandwales/2019

There a massive publication about it.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:15 PM GMT
And from the way the data is presented, week 1 seems to start on January 1st in the averages as well. So that goes out of the window as well.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:16 PM GMT
You can take bank holidays out of the equation by assessing week 2. It's a no brainer.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:18 PM GMT
How do I know that week two doesn't have delayed week one deaths?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:20 PM GMT
Why would the be? There's no bank holiday in week 2.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:20 PM GMT
The week 1 figures of 2021 are affected very similary by delayed christmas figures as the average week 1 figures of previous years are affected by delayed christmas figures. It's a no-brainer really. Hence they can be used and compared.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:21 PM GMT

Jan 31, 2021 -- 10:20AM, Cider wrote:


Why would the be? There's no bank holiday in week 2.


Lack of ressources in week one with folks still on holiday causing death registration being carried over to week two.

Report edy January 31, 2021 4:26 PM GMT
That's why it's better to look at more weeks instead of just single weeks. Evens out and stuff.
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:31 PM GMT
I suspect you're losing it, or fishing!

Look at section 2 on this link, there are helpful arrows for you!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25december2020

Yes it evens out over the entire period if the weeks you're comparing include all of the disruption. But week 1 doesn't include all of those weeks.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- January 31, 2021 4:31 PM GMT
If new years day falls on a Friday you get a 3-4 day holiday
around New year, following on from 4 day shutdown for christmas
and boxing day holiday straddling a weekend
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:33 PM GMT
In Week 52, the number of deaths registered was 44.8% above the five-year average (3,566 deaths higher) but this increase should be treated with caution; the five-year average was particularly low in Week 52 as the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, all contained two bank holidays, whereas Week 52 of 2020 only contained one bank holiday so would likely have more deaths registered.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:34 PM GMT
How many bank holidays in week 52 of 2020?
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:34 PM GMT
sorry.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:36 PM GMT
So....with week 2020 having one bank holiday and them saying more deaths were registered, that means a smaller carry over into week one of 2021, doesn't it? Compared to the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 from the average.

Meaning that week 1 2021 should even have a lower proportion of carried over end of december deaths than those years.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:36 PM GMT
You sure this is going the right direction for you?
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:38 PM GMT
I.e the week 1 average for 2015-2019 is tilted upwards compared to 2021 due to more carried over end of december deaths (because two bank holidays)
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:42 PM GMT
Just forget about week 1, it's not like for like. Week 2 is, and the rest of the year will be fine until easter.

Last year had a week 53

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages...
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:42 PM GMT
.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriage...
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:44 PM GMT
put a € in a new row after the link
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:44 PM GMT
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25december2020

€
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:44 PM GMT
Like so
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:44 PM GMT
Ta, the preceding full stop usually works.
Report edy January 31, 2021 4:46 PM GMT
€ always works. It's one of those nasty features the EU loving rascals from the Irish company that owns this forum built into the code to trigger hardline Brexiters.
Report shiny new shoes please January 31, 2021 4:47 PM GMT
God help you

Flu can be wiped out lol
Comical..
Ya must be really bored eh try life?
Report Cider January 31, 2021 4:47 PM GMT
lol
Report Mexico January 31, 2021 6:41 PM GMT
Twiz
Won’t those who are dying in January have been infected in December. I.e. Before the mass rollout of vaccines but corresponding to when daily case numbers were off the scale.

Government/ scientists are hopeful will start seeing positive effects of vaccine in 2-3 weeks.
Report shiny new shoes please January 31, 2021 6:49 PM GMT
And when that don't won't
How will they spin it??
Maybe just don't report it anymore?
Shocking that God have ya a brain and failed to use it lol
Report Foinavon January 31, 2021 7:04 PM GMT
edy31 Jan 21 17:46Joined: 13 Dec 06 | Topic/replies: 239,787 | Blogger: edy's blog
€ always works. It's one of those nasty features the EU loving rascals from the Irish company that owns this forum built into the code to trigger hardline Brexiters.


Edy, you tart. Laugh
Report nineteen points February 2, 2021 11:41 AM GMT
flu the lowest recorded for 130 years.down 95% from normal years.very strange
Report sageform February 2, 2021 12:20 PM GMT
Not strange at all. Lockdown is just as effective on flu if not more so. Before Covid19 people happily went to work and socialised with flu symptoms and it spread like wildfire in years when a new variant appeared.
Report nineteen points February 2, 2021 12:26 PM GMT
so how hasnt same happened with covid?
Report truehoncho February 2, 2021 12:34 PM GMT
19 whats happened is that the covid virus has infected the elderly and vulnerable before flu has had a chance to. It may well have been a quiet flu season, last year was one of the quietest for years. Flu normally peaks about now but the covid has come earlier. In future years my guess it will be one or the other and the death rates will look similar to the historical numbers for flu. Hospital cases are already reducing and by July this will be gone, Put this post up in July if I am wrong.
Report edy February 2, 2021 12:54 PM GMT
Well of course, truehoncho! We have awesome vaccines now and large quantities of the population will have been vaccinated by July.
Report truehoncho February 2, 2021 1:13 PM GMT
of course Edy. They have vaccines for flu too. That was my point
Report lfc1971 February 2, 2021 1:37 PM GMT
Flu could probably be eliminated if everyone took the flu jab , but because only the elderly do so ( and only some of them )
it can spread through the rest of the population . We have taken the decision to vaccinate the elderly , maybe because of timeand cost but
it’s a compromise and therefore people will die
Report lfc1971 February 2, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
Feb 2018 - Killer flu outbreak is to blame for a 42% spike in deaths in January after 64,000 people died -
The highest number since records began
Report nineteen points February 2, 2021 2:17 PM GMT
and 2 years later....its gone...vanished like percys old oak table
Report edy February 2, 2021 2:41 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2021 -- 7:13AM, truehoncho wrote:


of course Edy. They have vaccines for flu too. That was my point


Different sorts of viruses, different technology, different efficacies and prospects.

Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 2:43 PM GMT
was that in he uk lfc? the 64,000 deaths?
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 2:45 PM GMT
edy are flu and covid really so different?

they seem to spread in a similar manner (airborne particles), kill the same type of people (elderly), and affect the same parts of the body (lungs)
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 2:50 PM GMT
lfc the whole world would need to take flu jabs every year to get rid of it, even then it might not work
Report lfc1971 February 2, 2021 2:51 PM GMT
Yes Giuseppe , England and Wales
Report lfc1971 February 2, 2021 2:55 PM GMT
‘ people passed away that you would never think would die’
Report edy February 2, 2021 3:04 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2021 -- 8:45AM, Giuseppe wrote:


edy are flu and covid really so different? they seem to spread in a similar manner (airborne particles), kill the same type of people (elderly), and affect the same parts of the body (lungs)


Mao and Churchill

both led countries, had fancy hairstyles, have statues dedicated to them.

Yet the majority of people would likely not say they are almost identical.

Report edy February 2, 2021 3:08 PM GMT
Or

If I hit you really hard with a hammer on the head it has the same end result as me slicing through your head with a chainsaw. Affects the same part of your body and stuff.

Still, they are not one and the same and we'd need different cleaning strategies afterwards. My chainsaw attack can also be curbed if you steal my petrol or cut my energy cable. To prevent my hammer attack you'd need a different strategy.
Report edy February 2, 2021 3:09 PM GMT
....I have some dark fantasies sometimes with people that pretend to by old acquaintances, but then don't even know my most favouritest WTA player of all time....
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:10 PM GMT
edy,

what are the guidelines to stop the spread of the flu?

what are the guidelines to stop the spread of covid?

are they different?
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:10 PM GMT
i have remembered who your favourite player was, i just forgot
Report edy February 2, 2021 3:12 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2021 -- 9:10AM, Giuseppe wrote:


edy, what are the guidelines to stop the spread of the flu?what are the guidelines to stop the spread of covid?are they different?


Probably. Flu would need a different social distance, and also time of exposure and all that stuff.

Report edy February 2, 2021 3:13 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2021 -- 9:10AM, Giuseppe wrote:


i have remembered who your favourite player was, i just forgot


Who is it then?

Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:15 PM GMT
"Flu would need a different social distance"

why? the social distance stuff is just guesswork based on computer models
Report edy February 2, 2021 3:21 PM GMT
It can't be guesswork if it's based on computer models, can it? There will just be a certain insecurity involved as to how near the scientifically determined number is to the real value.
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:22 PM GMT
it's not literal guesswork no, but i think you have too much confidence in it
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:23 PM GMT
which decade in tennis are we talking? you have more than one favourite
Report edy February 2, 2021 3:25 PM GMT
I only have one ultimate favourite.

A true friend that looks to steal all my munnies would know that.
You are a fake friend that looks to steal all my munnies.
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:27 PM GMT
just a loan mate
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:31 PM GMT
Garbiñe Muguruza?
Report Giuseppe February 2, 2021 3:31 PM GMT
if i get it right will you give me 50 euros?
Report edy February 2, 2021 3:33 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2021 -- 9:27AM, Giuseppe wrote:


just a loan mate


Yeah yeah, and then Giuseppe would be gone forever the day after I "loan" all me munnies to you, and we'd suddenly have a moustached Joseph who starts posting a lot.

Report edy February 2, 2021 3:37 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2021 -- 9:31AM, Giuseppe wrote:


if i get it right will you give me 50 euros?


You've already had at least three tries.

Report sageform February 4, 2021 2:11 PM GMT
My son is in medical research and he told me that the 2 metres for Covid19 was only an estimate based on the data for flu! Clearly not nearly far enough for C19.
Report saddo February 5, 2021 9:58 AM GMT
Does this mean there will be no need for flu injections later this year?
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