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lfc1971
31 Jan 21 09:11
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Date Joined: 06 Nov 11
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Experts say after a 95% drop

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Replies: 162
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 09:16
At lowest level in 130 years
By:
frog1000
When: 31 Jan 21 09:35
Had a global rebrand.
By:
A_T
When: 31 Jan 21 10:30
the power of social distancing, wearing masks, etc.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 10:41
I wonder has covid killed off the flu , cases fall 98% worldwide
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 10:48
Can’t be a surprise.

If people not crammed into trains twice a day or going to packed pubs nightclubs, out shopping with friends at the weekend etc. Social distancing reduces transmission.

Of course makes the excess death figures even worse. If people not dying of flu would normally expect excess deaths to be much lower rather than well over 100,000 & heading towards 150,000 higher.
By:
A_T
When: 31 Jan 21 11:18
Australia have shown the way. Their economy back up and running much sooner than ours. Strong leadership not a government that does a u-turn after a every phone call from a belligerent backbencher.
By:
frog1000
When: 31 Jan 21 11:41
Of the 12 countries in the region Australia is the worst performing in absolute numbers and 2nd worst in terms of deaths per million.
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 11:41
Agree AT

On July30th Australia recorded  722 cases , UK recorded 846.

Most of the Aussie cases were in Victoria which obviously was in winter.
The two countries approached the crisis in different ways.

UK had open borders, people allowed to go on holidays to different countries, no need for testing or isolation on return. UK government encouraged people to get out and spend money in restaurants. The PM even said that people who had been working on home should go back to office.

The Aussies had a different approach. 
They take having the economy open and personal freedom very seriously, one case in Perth has resulted in a 5 day shutdown.
In UK we have had months of restrictions, we never even considered the Aussie approach.
The Aussies have far more liberty than UK at the moment, their economy is doing better and schools open. The UK approach was supposed to help the economy, protect personal liberty and keep schools open.

Melbourne hosting the tennis next week, 50% capacity for fans. Does anybody expect 50% capacity at Wimbledon even though that is months away and many will have vaccine by then.

UK are unfortunately near the top of the death league table, generally all of Europe have performed very poorly.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 11:42
That’s a long way to go to find an example

But it does say flu has fallen 98% worldwide
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 11:49
Yep Frog

Aussies really got this wrong in terms of deaths.

Deaths by population they are 142nd with 35 per million, your wonderful Sweden is 23rd with 1144 per million.
Uk is 5th with 1550.


So 1144 is great because it is low but 35 is bad because it is high. Well done frog.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 11:52
The Aussies have got it right because of the US and U.K. vaccines ? ( hopefully )
By:
frog1000
When: 31 Jan 21 12:06

Jan 31, 2021 -- 5:49AM, Mexico wrote:


Yep FrogAussies really got this wrong in terms of deaths.Deaths by population they are 142nd with 35 per million, your wonderful Sweden is 23rd with 1144 per million.Uk is 5th with 1550.So 1144 is great because it is low but 35 is bad because it is high. Well done frog.


Sweden mid-table in Europe in terms of deaths.

Australia top of the pack in Oceania in terms of deaths.

Very different situations.

Sweden with no enforced lock downs and primary schools not closed shows how wrong countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Czech Republic, UK, Belgium got it with their destructive on and off lock downs and school closures.

By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:07
It seems strange that flu has fallen 98% worldwide and not just in Australia ?
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:09
If Australia did the right things , and others did not
Why is this ?
By:
cryoftruth
When: 31 Jan 21 12:14
Well they did not have Johnson,the hapless idiot Handcock or Bully Patel messing everything up. Or Trump telling people to swig bleach or that the virus would disappear bigly— Whoof! Just like that, or Bolsinari pretending Covid was just like a cold really.

Not all countries were run by useless corrupt idiots and some of those did rather better in terms of protecting their citizens.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:20
You’re missing the point again CoT
Flu has fallen 98% worldwide
By:
frog1000
When: 31 Jan 21 12:20
Or Sturgeon.
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 12:28
Frog

Those Aussies are really poor with 35 deaths per million. Well done Sweden.

After you failed so spectacular with the 11+ English comprehension question here is another simple question which a Primary school pupil can answer.
Made it easier for you, this one is aimed at 6 year olds as the 11 year old question was too difficult.


Which of the following is the smallest number?
A) 35
B) 587
C) 1144
D) 1550
By:
politicspunter
When: 31 Jan 21 12:28
Insider Trader, why are you going under "frog1000" now? Is it because you got wiped out backing Trump for President and laying Kamala Harris in the Democrat Nominee market?
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 12:32
LFC

Wouldn’t you expect flu rates to fall with all this social distancing?
No daily commute, trips to pub, dancing, not having 80,000 for football, rugby. Households not mixing.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:38
Yes Mexico,  I have been a supporter of lockdown , but there was at the time doubts about for how long ( no vaccine) or how effective
So I am not saying that Australia didn’t do the right things , but did they do anything much different in practice
And if so why has flu fallen worldwide , if everything was so different ?
Something doesn’t quite make sense
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 12:41
People travelling on the tube don't die of flu ffs. The vast majority will be those suffering from comorbidity or in care homes.

Of the 5,273 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 381 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (7.2%).

So, 5,273 people died in the last reported week 'flu' positive.

7,245 deaths involving COVID-19.

Only 1,972 were covid positive that weren't flu positive.

(these are for England and Wales)
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:42
By the way I think now , more than ever, it makes sense to be very strict ( because we have the vaccine and might see a way out )
But a year ago it wasn’t so clear
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 12:46
LFC

I think the main difference with Aussies and Kiwi were that prepared to shut borders non residents & others needed full hotel quarantine.

Once you a fairly sure no new cases coming into country then can reduce cases already there.

Europe has had the approach that borders must stay open , personal liberty is number 1 priority and economy must open quickly.
This policy has resulted in
So we now have restricted personal liberty, economy closed, borders closed.

The Aussies closed internal borders.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:46
Well it’s not clear now either in truth , but because of the vaccine and the speed of its invention and roll out in U.K. it is worth being cautious
and wait and see
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 12:47
Essentially, doctors who are certifying deaths (in England and Wales) where the deceased had both flu and tested positive for covid are certifying covid as the primary cause 13 out of every 14 times.
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:48
Yes Mexico I’m aware of that, but the measures taken have had the same effect worldwide
for the flu , why ?
By:
lfc1971
When: 31 Jan 21 12:51
I am just sceptical that in the U.K. and Europe etc things were done so much differently
I don’t really believe that
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 12:52
It's totally ridiculous to compare Oz and NZ to us. We had 6 million UK citizens abroad in March. Are you seriously suggesting we could or should have cut them off? At the time, all the mainstream media were demanding that the government brought them all home, getting them on zoom calls looking like prisoners and we needed them back to work in the NHS. 

They are isolated countries.

They have the opposite seasons.
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 12:55
Even if we could have cut them all off (we couldn't), SAGE was telling the gvnt it would be waste of time.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 31 Jan 21 12:57
Quite bizarre that the expected and widely predicted decline
in flu cases sends the whack job shiny hat brigade scurrying
to find any other reason than the actual reasons.
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 12:58
I've been writing about covid displacing flu for a long time. I've also posted some facts for your consumption.
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 12:59
Cider

You still don’t understand after a year do you. ffs.

People spread virus on tube, they don’t know they are infected with flu, they pass it on to somebody who works or visits a care home.


Cider
Your interpretation of those stats seems to be total garbage.
For a start you quote a figure that is two causes Influenza and Pneumonia, you seem to then be saying this is just one cause “flu positive”
You already mention that only a small fraction of these people had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (7.2%).


You then pick a completely different cause of death Covid, subtract one number from the other to claim that most people who the medical experts said died of Covid didn’t die of Covid.

ffs?
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 13:00
How are the people who are dying now contracting the virus that kills them?
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 13:01
Cider

Is 30th July in March?
That is when UK and Australia had very similar numbers.

Regarding seasons. July, August is summer in UK but winter in Melbourne.
So easier to cut cases in a Victorian winter than a UK summer??
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 13:03
And why is it higher now, for example in Scotland, then it was in April?
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 13:05
Oh dear Cider....

How are the people who are dying now contracting the virus that kills them?


Errrrrrrrr the same way they have been contracting the virus from day 1. From social contact.

Are you aware that people are allowed out of their houses, to work, to exercise, to buy food, to buy lawn mowers, to buy Starbucks. Are you aware that there are some people in the UK who also leave their house for other reasons.
By:
Cider
When: 31 Jan 21 13:06
Are you advocating that the 6 million people abroad should have been abandoned (ie you think it was (a) feasible and (b) should have been done)?
By:
Mexico
When: 31 Jan 21 13:08
Cider cases are highly now than in summer because we had 4 months of cases doubling every 3 weeks until we reached the over 60,000 cases a day (actual number infected would be much higher)

Had a 4,5,6,7 weeks (depending on location) of social distancing and cases have more than halved. That is going it the right direction.
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