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kevinglass
13 Nov 20 17:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 644 | Blogger: kevinglass's blog
How possibly could Betfair ever settle this as a Trump victory?

The rules state.

"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market."

Biden has got most projected Electoral College votes. it is agreed by all of those who call the projection.

I think any legal challenge by Biden backers in the small claims court are bound to win.

The state betting rules are different,

"Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election?"

So here it is perhaps reasonable to wait until after a legal challenge/recount.

With the 2 different rules, they clearly should pay out on the Next President market, and they can do so BEFORE they settle all the State markets.

So if a pay out on Trump is impossible, it's a bit rich Betfair still allowing punters to back him at 11/1????

What am I missing here?
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Report kevinglass November 14, 2020 12:39 PM GMT
Trouble is PP, you get markets on here, and liquidity on here for politics, that you just don't get elsewhere.

I tried to put a bet on NY for the state betting at 1/50 with PP, and my max was £50, similar with California, Hawaii, etc etc........on here, well 5000 @1.04/1,03 is easy, and free money. So there is no option really. Hills & Sky even lower amounts.

I'm more certain than 1.01 I'll be paid out on the President market, it's just annoying isn't it.
Report politicspunter November 14, 2020 12:40 PM GMT
There is another exchange option available...
Report politicspunter November 14, 2020 12:42 PM GMT
One who paid out long ago on Presidential winner, states, Electoral college totals, popular vote...
Report Richard LL November 14, 2020 12:46 PM GMT
I’m sure BF would love to settle this market, I’d guess their projected comission will have stayed pretty much the same over the last week despite the increase in matched bets.
A Georgia recount sounds a logistical nightmare, it’s not lile the ballots are sorted as they would be in the UK, plus those large ballots are great for asking multiple questions, legalise pot? Marry ya sister? etc, but a pain to sift through.
Report kevinglass November 14, 2020 12:58 PM GMT
Haven't used my purple account for ages, maybe I should have a look again.
Report dave1357 November 14, 2020 1:01 PM GMT
They make you sign some declaration about best execution if you haven't been for a while - make sure that you have standard screen resolution or you won't be able to tick the "I agree" box.
Report kevinglass November 14, 2020 1:07 PM GMT
Cheers Dave.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 14, 2020 3:21 PM GMT
Are people suggesting that
when a decision to settle is
made then bets are placed
Before the button is pressed?

That would be naughty!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 14, 2020 3:25 PM GMT
They did employ someone who knew how to make these rules so that they could settle asap - hence the CNN rule in popular vote and "projected electoral votes" in the president market. purple simply state "next president" so they can't settle till jan 20th. If BF wanted that they could have adopted the same rules.


Some rules for settlement on the odd
non politics markets have been
written for them, more or less,
by the punters.

Such as next manager markets on football
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 9:50 AM GMT
You only have to look at the odds to understand the uncertainty over states like Wisconsin where Biden is 1.08 to win. Why would Betfair settle it early?

NC on the other hand has been settled because there are no recounts or disputes there and Trump won easily. He was 1.01/no offers to win it. Betfair appear to have been willing to take the risk settling it.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 10:25 AM GMT
The prices are irrelevant. Everyone else has settled.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 10:48 AM GMT
Betfair Sportsbook have settled bets on the state of Georgia. Meanwhile Betfair Exchange are still taking bets on the outcomeSad
Report DanielKoellerer November 15, 2020 11:13 AM GMT
You only have to look at the odds to understand the uncertainty over states like Wisconsin where Biden is 1.08 to win. Why would Betfair settle it early?

Are you joking?
Report dave1357 November 15, 2020 12:24 PM GMT
There are no live suits in nevada and biden one easily, not settled.
Report dave1357 November 15, 2020 12:29 PM GMT
won easily ffs
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 12:37 PM GMT
The only company that has not settled is BetfairSad
Report kevinglass November 15, 2020 12:51 PM GMT
Apologies if I missed it....but irony of ironies, has anyone asked Betfair for a market on when the next President Market might be settled?

I do wonder what will tip them over the edge?
Report Sergeant Cecil November 15, 2020 1:00 PM GMT
I mocked one up myself last Friday and had next week (i.e the current week) as 25/1! Although I didn't have anything for after this week so probably would have had to void; sloppy rules just like Betfair.

I think now they're going to need either a concession or the States to certify and they'll settle one-by-one until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to win based off their settlements.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 1:04 PM GMT
It's mathematically impossible for Trump to win and has been for some time.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 15, 2020 1:06 PM GMT
I agree, although I meant in terms of EC votes based of Betfair's market settlements.
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 1:14 PM GMT
A sportsbook is not the same thing as a 'non-seeded' exchange.

Betfair sportsbook can take the risk that Georgia will not be reversed on the recount when it is 15.0 to do just that.

Betfair exchange cannot payout on behalf of all their losing punters on Georgia bets. That would be completely unfair on those losing punters during a recount and/or legal action.

I am amazed some people fail to understand the difference between a sportsbook or a 'seeded' exchange to the Betfair exchange.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 15, 2020 1:22 PM GMT
It's the same company mate.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 1:23 PM GMT
frog, Georgia is bad enough but there is no legal challenge/recount in Nevada. It wasn't even flipped by Biden, Hillary won it in 2016. Why aren't Betfair settling that market please?
Report Sergeant Cecil November 15, 2020 1:29 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327956491056279552

Trump admits Biden won.
Report Timber November 15, 2020 1:33 PM GMT
Nevada has criminal charges against it
The reason nothing is being settled because BF actually watch/read real news
Not the pathetic left wing dross that is wheeled out in the Uk

Release the KRAKEN

Not even Medusa's severed had can save the fraudsters!
Report Timber November 15, 2020 1:34 PM GMT
Head
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 1:34 PM GMT
Betfair market has been wrong
throughout.

Using it to justify chance of
outcome is exactly what people wanted.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 1:36 PM GMT
Once again we see polls
are far better indicators,
however flawed they are, than
betting markets.
Report Sica Dan November 15, 2020 1:36 PM GMT
Betway havnt yet settled  my bet on Biden,they wouldnt allow me £20 at 9/20.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 1:46 PM GMT
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
55m
He won because the Election was ****. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!

Come on Betfair, Trump admits Biden won. Settle those markets please!
Report Timber November 15, 2020 1:54 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2020 -- 7:46AM, politicspunter wrote:


Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·55mHe won because the Election was ****. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!Come on Betfair, Trump admits Biden won. Settle those markets please!


There is a caveat at the bottom that says Twitter disputes this
Lmfao!!

Report Timber November 15, 2020 1:55 PM GMT
Lin wood has got thisLoveExcited
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 1:58 PM GMT
For state betting...

'Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election?'

This will not be known for sure until the votes are certified. For a bookmaker or an exchange to settle this before certification is a risk for the bookmaker or exchange.

An exchange or bookmaker is within its rights to decide, when assessing the chance of outcome, if it is willing to payout early.

It is very simple to understand.

NC they have assessed very little chance of a reverse. Maybe Nevada has, in their opinion, a bigger chance of a reverse. The odds suggest/suggested this.

Clearly if one state is reversed the chance of another reversing increases.

Why are people so desperate for an early settlement?

Be patient.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:00 PM GMT
Total drivel. Betfair have already settled 44 of the 50 states.
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 2:01 PM GMT
Because they made an assessment those 44 states are unlikely to be reversed. They were willing to take the risk.

It is not really that hard to understand if you put yourself in their shoes.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:02 PM GMT
Betfair Exchange are not paying out "early". They are later than everyone else in settling including their own Sportsbook.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 2:03 PM GMT
Betfair are finding themselves
in a very contrived position,
Can't be long now

Tick tock
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:03 PM GMT
There is no risk, they just won't pay out.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:04 PM GMT
Go on then Frog, tell me what the "risk" is in settling Nevada please?
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 2:05 PM GMT
In your opinion. The markets tell us otherwise.

If there is NO risk why are the odds for different states different?

Why are they are all not just 1.01 to lay and no offers to back like when a football team is 10-0 up in the final minute?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 2:06 PM GMT
Markets are wrong
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 2:06 PM GMT
Explain why NC was shorter than Nevada?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 2:07 PM GMT
He's 1.03 in pop vote..

He was 1.03 to win cali,
And that's settled

1.03 hawaii, ffs, and that's settled
Report dave1357 November 15, 2020 2:07 PM GMT
live lawsuits in

alabama
california
north carolina
texas

all settled
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:07 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2020 -- 8:05AM, frog1000 wrote:


In your opinion. The markets tell us otherwise.If there is NO risk why are the odds for different states different? Why are they are all not just 1.01 to lay and no offers to back like when a football team is 10-0 up in the final minute?


The prices are totally irrelevant. These markets have been settled by everyone except Betfair exchange. Even Betfair Sportsbook have settled them, the same company.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 2:08 PM GMT
The settled markets on states
mean they should settle pop vote

But they ain't.. Yet
Report kevinglass November 15, 2020 2:08 PM GMT
By your thinking frog, every market has to be 1.01 before pay out, which is clearly not the case, in this or any other market.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 2:10 PM GMT
People that think markets are perfect
must never ever bet.
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 2:13 PM GMT
Those prices are not irrelevant.

If they were not relevant the NC prices would have be the same as Nevada.

I am amazed that gamblers cannot understand simple probabilities and risk.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:14 PM GMT
I do understand them. There is no risk, none at all.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:15 PM GMT
Btw, was every single state that Betfair Exchange have settled at 1.01?
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 2:15 PM GMT
If there is no risk the prices would be same. You would have backed them all into no offers. If not you some one else would have.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:16 PM GMT
I haven't had a bet on anything since before the election and I certainly don't bet at 1.01 or similar.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:19 PM GMT
Ah, unless you count my tenner on Beverley Callard at 30.0 to win I'm a Celebrity Laugh
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 2:23 PM GMT
Someone would have though if there genuinely was zero risk.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:26 PM GMT
Why? Put £100 on at 1.01 to win a pound less commission that might be paid out in a couple of months? You would probably be financially better off leaving it in the bank earning interest.
Report llama1 November 15, 2020 2:38 PM GMT
You will not get a 1% return by leaving your £100 in a bank for a couple of months?
Report Sergeant Cecil November 15, 2020 2:40 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2020 -- 7:54AM, Timber wrote:


Nov 15, 2020 --  2:46PM, politicspunter wrote:Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·55mHe won because the Election was ****. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!Come on Betfair, Trump admits Biden won. Settle those markets please!There is a caveat at the bottom that says Twitter disputes thisLmfao!!


It disputes the claims of rígging you plank.

Frog's been sent out to do Betfair's dirty work and is getting a hiding!

Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:41 PM GMT
Well, you first of all have to weigh up what commission you are paying Betfair then guesstimate when they might pay out?
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 2:43 PM GMT
Maybe I should have said IF they pay out.
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 3:15 PM GMT
I haven't been sent by anyone to do anything.

I am just offering my opinion as to why some markets are to be settled through logic.

If I was in Betfair's shoes I would not be paying out yet on any market where a reverse would cost a fortune to rectify.

Would all the people asking for an early payout be willing to pay the money back if the market is reversed?
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 3:23 PM GMT
Yes.
Report kevinglass November 15, 2020 3:24 PM GMT
Without wishing to repeat ourselves......the President market cannot be reversed, because it has already met the rules required in order to be settled.

Betfair cannot possibly pay out on anything other than a Biden win, full stop.

I just wish they'd get on and do it.

The State markets are based on a different set of rules, as per the first post on this thread.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 3:25 PM GMT
Besides, they are not an early pay out, they are now a late pay out, later than every other company.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 3:26 PM GMT
Frog, are Betfair in some sort of financial difficulty?
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 3:30 PM GMT
I have no idea. Paddy Power Betfair is a Plc. Look it up if you are worried about it.

The fact and bookmakers have paid out has nothing to do with an exchange paying out.

If the exchange decides to payout they are paying out with other peoples' money not their own.

Different thing entirely.
Report politicspunter November 15, 2020 3:34 PM GMT
You have no idea if Betfair are in some sort of financial difficulty? That worries me.
Report frog1000 November 15, 2020 3:43 PM GMT
Why does it worry you?

Are they?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 15, 2020 4:07 PM GMT
Can't see them being in trouble.

I can understand the caution,
to some extent

But having had trump at 250/1
yesterday,i think he's 500/1 now
and that's maybe a bit short.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 19, 2020 12:18 PM GMT
Can confirm this market has now been settled on the Daq.
Report the old nanny ;-) November 19, 2020 2:54 PM GMT
764,853,236  Betfair delighted with proceedings
Report mafeking November 19, 2020 2:56 PM GMT
67M traded on 1.05 biden alone. must be a massive record for a particular tick ?
Report Whisperingdeath November 19, 2020 4:01 PM GMT
I guess we are looking at December 12th at the earliest and possibly January 6th the latest. When will the limited Wisconsin re count be finished? Maybe that will be the earliest they will pay. No worries. Nice to have something in the bank Sir!
Report peckerdunne November 19, 2020 5:22 PM GMT
Amazed the Racing Post has not run a story on this.

It is filth of the highest order by Betfair not to make public a position.
Report scandanavian_haven November 19, 2020 5:36 PM GMT
they posted this 9 days ago, don't know if it was posted here


Betfair Help
@BetfairCS
·
10 Nov

Hello there! We will wait until there is clarity around any ongoing recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results before we can settle the market.

We will update our blog and social media channels when there is any further news.



and this was posted on their blog

US Election: Betfair market settlement scenarios
Dan Thomas
02 November 2020
2:30 min read
Joe Biden and Donald TrumpA guide on how Betfair will settle the US Election markets
View market
Reddit
There are different scenarios for market settlement purposes on the US Election this week - here's how Betfair will treat them...


1) Settled on Tuesday Night
This is possible but not probable. For this to happen, there would need to be a sizeable win for Joe Biden in Florida, coupled with three or four other key states reporting results faster than is anticipated.


2) Settled on Wednesday or Thursday
This appears more likely than a Tuesday settlement, given the logistics of the counts. Significant increases in postal ballots will, for example, cause counts to be slower than previous elections. Betfair markets would remain active and trading throughout.


3) Contested Result

A contested result includes a legal battle regarding re-count, the Supreme Court deciding the winner and any scenario other than a clean Electoral College vote majority.

This could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nothing would be conceded in this scenario and the projections couldn't be made given the margins involved.

There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but legal challenges would be likely should the state Electoral College total be the balance of power in terms of winning the presidency or not.

There is no way of giving a clear view of settlement time in advance in this case, but these market rules will apply:

"If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled."
Report Fatslogger November 19, 2020 5:43 PM GMT
Thanks, don’t think we had seen that on this thread but it’s very consistent with what one of their senior politics traders was saying on their podcast from a few days before the election. Shame I didn’t listen to it at the time, actually, as it might have clued me in to the possible trading potential even once the race was basically already over. Even then though, I don’t think I’d have predicted the level of support for the prospect of Trump winning despite being very obviously defeated.
Report peckerdunne November 19, 2020 5:53 PM GMT
Yes, don't believe for a minute it has anything to do with above, it's filthy.
Report kevinglass November 19, 2020 7:26 PM GMT
As States certify results, you'd think the State markets still outstanding would be settled.

Even though this isn't really linked to the "projected" winner. Once Biden hits 270, you'd think the President market would be settled.

That seems logical.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 19, 2020 8:42 PM GMT

Nov 19, 2020 -- 1:26PM, kevinglass wrote:


As States certify results, you'd think the State markets still outstanding would be settled.Even though this isn't really linked to the "projected" winner. Once Biden hits 270, you'd think the President market would be settled.That seems logical.


It does, but logic has gone out of the window with this market.

I have Biden on 227 so needs 43. Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania should be certified by Tuesday - presume it'll be settled then?

Report Chemosabe November 19, 2020 10:00 PM GMT
This endless bleating is getting really tiresome. Betfair isn't going to settle the Next President market whilst there is still legal uncertainty over the projected Electoral College winner. Are you people thick, or what?

Have sufficient States certified their election results for us to project an Electoral College win for Biden? The answer is demonstrably NO.

I suspect Betfair will probably wait until all State election results have been certified, because if a single state doesn't certify their results, this could lead to a "contingent election" decision by the House of Representatives - a possibility which Betfair clearly references in the rules.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 19, 2020 10:02 PM GMT
Lol
Report Chemosabe November 19, 2020 10:09 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2020 -- 9:26AM, politicspunter wrote:


Frog, are Betfair in some sort of financial difficulty?


Why would they be? In any event, all Betfair client funds are in a ringfenced escrow account.

Report dave1357 November 19, 2020 10:16 PM GMT
They are held in an independent trust to be precise. Escrow is I suppose the effect with a market settlement, but the protection comes from the trustees who take no interest in the transaction, they just hold the money.
Report dave1357 November 19, 2020 10:19 PM GMT
and also lol to

I suspect Betfair will probably wait until all State election results have been certified, because if a single state doesn't certify their results, this could lead to a "contingent election" decision by the House of Representatives - a possibility which Betfair clearly references in the rules.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 19, 2020 10:44 PM GMT
"This endless bleating is getting really tiresome. Betfair isn't going to settle the Next President market whilst there is still legal uncertainty over the projected Electoral College winner. Are you people thick, or what?

Have sufficient States certified their election results for us to project an Electoral College win for Biden? The answer is demonstrably NO."


This is what we're talking about, do keep up. Georgia should certify tomorrow, Michigan and Pennsylvania on Monday. That's enough certified projected EC votes for Biden if you include states Betfair has settled as winners.
Report dave1357 November 19, 2020 10:57 PM GMT
And time to ramp up the pressure ensuring that they realise that their rules state that faithless electors etc should be ignored.
Report Whisperingdeath November 20, 2020 10:52 AM GMT
What legal challenges?Laugh

Some people think this is going to be settled in the Supreme Court. It is such a joke it wouldn’t make Judge Judy!

I do think the market will be settled before December 14th. The game is up.
Report Whisperingdeath November 20, 2020 10:55 AM GMT
Although I am more than happy for the show to go on. I am enjoying the Chump humiliation. I would like to see more of tucking my shirt in Guilliani and Fredo so Amrika realises these clowns should never ever run for elected office again.
Report kevinglass November 20, 2020 12:53 PM GMT
So Georgia has "certified" ....but

"Once the votes are certified, state law allows the Trump campaign to ask for another recount, given the narrow margins. The campaign has until Nov. 24 to make that request"

So no Georgia settlement till at least then.
Report Whisperingdeath November 20, 2020 1:43 PM GMT
you think Chump has the money to pay for another recount? The first one was free under law!

This is going to cost the Republicans millions if they do challenge...good.

Dead seabird!
Report fullback November 21, 2020 9:55 AM GMT
The question is " how and why is this market gobbling up millions every day "?
Are people backing Biden @ 1.05 and hoping to lay @ 1.04 ?
Report politicspunter November 21, 2020 9:57 AM GMT
Money laundering.
Report A_T November 21, 2020 10:30 AM GMT
Russians
Report dave1357 November 21, 2020 10:44 AM GMT
There are plenty of people who haven't read the market rules who are laying biden, because they think they will win if he isn't inaugurated on 20th jan. They are being accommodated by people who have read the rules.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 21, 2020 10:50 AM GMT

Nov 21, 2020 -- 4:44AM, dave1357 wrote:


There are plenty of people who haven't read the market rules who are laying biden, because they think they will win if he isn't inaugurated on 20th jan. They are being accommodated by people who have read the rules.


This is true, staggering how many people on Twitter have not read the rules. One guy posted his page, 2k red on Trump, wasn't aware that the settlement was on projected EC votes and not next President. Two bags lost because they've not read the rules. Astonishing and sad.

Report A_T November 21, 2020 10:54 AM GMT
not really that sad Grin
Report Sergeant Cecil November 21, 2020 11:16 AM GMT
LaughLaugh
Report Fatslogger November 21, 2020 12:00 PM GMT
It would be a bonkers bet anyway though!
Report Fatslogger November 21, 2020 12:00 PM GMT
Guess you mean £2k red on Biden though.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 21, 2020 1:13 PM GMT
Yes, apologies.
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