2024 USA Presidential Election

The Dems don’t have a plan B do they ?

If Biden doesn’t run for whichever reason they’re clueless what to do
Say what you will about the Republicans if Trump isnt in the race they have at least two good alternatives

Exactly, Biden is not the perfect candidate but incumbency counts for a lot. Quite amazing how Trump is way shorter than Biden for respective nominee and the former is in an actual competitive primary.

Trump is a very risky short price with umpteen pitfalls in the way. Why would you wish to tie up a load of money for a considerable time for a relatively small return minus commission?

The media is pretty much saying Trump has won the primary, he's telling his MAGA cultists that it's over and you don't even need to bother voting. DeSantis has the best endorsements anyone could ask for in Iowa, and in the past 3 primaries even Selzer has underdone the Vander Plaats endorsee, especially Santorum and Cruz who she missed massively.

The nearer the primaries are, the more focused the electorate are becoming and although Trump has a sizeable (but falling) lead, he currently has the support of less than half GOP voters.

Trump attacking Kim Reynolds is a massive error, she is a very popular Governor.

Yes, just look at Clinton in 08 and 16, she had name recognition so was far ahead, come the week before and the others start catching up and in 08 start overtaking.

Just seen Sununu is almost ready to endorse someone, Haley is doing well in NH but DeSantis longer term is the better candidate to beat Trump. He's attended events with both of them but Haley would definitely be the risk-free choice for him with her in a clear 2nd there and both being very centrist. Sununu isn't standing again in '24 so I imagine he'll fancy himself to have a role in either's administration if they were to win.

If Trump wins Iowa clearly after trashing Reynolds and Vander Plaats then he'll be unstoppable

https://smarkets.com/event/42461161/politics/us/donald-trump/donald-trump-to-become-president-before-2025
.

What is the catch in this market please? Surely there can only be one possible result?

Christie: 'Trump deserves blame for rise in anti-semtitism', I swear the bloke's trying to get Trump elected at this point.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/newcm/2023/11/Sununu-campaigns-with-Haley-Chr...

Reynolds will be campaigning with DeSantis all the way through till caucus night, Sununu will do the same so it's an endorsement they'll want to have.

Nov 26, 2023 -- 2:34PM, BestShot wrote:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/newcm/2023/11/Sununu-campaigns-with-Haley-Chr...

Link doesn't work.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/newcm/2023/11/Sununu-campaigns-with-Haley-Chr...

istie-Desantis-NH-53109250.php

A good read, thanks.

Would expect Sununu endorsement sometime this week, I'd give Haley 85% chance of getting it, DeSantis 14.9% and Christie 0.1%

If DeSantis gets it that'd be a major boost and would go a long way to showing the polls aren't reflective of what's going on on the ground but I just can't see it, from Covid to Disney, Sununu just doesn't agree with his policies.

The Iowa endorsements could swing it as it's not good for early states governors to be supporting different alternatives to Trump.

First Biden lead for a few weeks.

2024 Presidential Election Poll

(D) Biden: 43% [+2]
(R) Trump: 42% [-2]
---
Another candidate 11% [+1]

[Change vs November 19]

@MorningConsult
  | 6,527 RV | 11/25-26

Ceasefire started on Nov 24

Do incumbent presidents lose elections ?
The only one that comes to mind is George Bush senior
( perhaps Americas last truly great President )
Seems rare

Not recently. There was 3 elections in a row in which the incumbent lost, Ford-Carter-Bush, before that LBJ withdrew in the primaries because he was going to lose.

You have missed out Reagan in between. There was also another one that lost recently I seem to recall.

You have missed out Reagan in between. There was also another one that lost recently I seem to recall.

Ah yes I forgot about Reagan. Koch brothers backing Haley.

Nov 28, 2023 -- 8:06AM, lfc1971 wrote:

Do incumbent presidents lose elections ?The only one that comes to mind is George Bush senior ( perhaps Americas last truly great President )Seems rare

Did that Trump guy not lose?

Nov 28, 2023 -- 9:04AM, blank wrote:

Ah yes I forgot about Reagan. Koch brothers backing Haley.

Yes, that will be very helpful to her. They are very well organised and financed.

Sununu's endorsement -

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2023/11/28/the-courting-of-chris-sununu-00128826

Haley (with Pence and Scott) is on the Nevada Primary ballot but the rest of the candidates are on the Caucus ballot, delegates are only given to those on the Caucus ballot, what is she doing

Christie has got till the 4th to get a 6% in a National poll, I'm sure Trafalgar will come out of nowhere on the 3rd/4th to give him that 6%. Shame Vivek is going, only reason Haley is doing well is because of him.

You would think that Sunumu is only likely to endorse either Christie or Haley, with DeSantis struggling in New Hampshire. If Haley became President (I know, I know) then Sunumu could be a likely candidate to be in the administration.

Think Christie has no shot, Sununu hates Trump so he wants someone who can actually beat him. If DeSantis and Haley were tied in NH I think he could've leant to DeSantis but with Haley so far ahead there I think he'll more than happily endorse her.

Sounds like he has already made up his mind but is now building anticipation for maximum impact on the reveal, he criticized Reynolds announcement for not having that impact and getting overshadowed by other news.

Nov 28, 2023 -- 12:06PM, BestShot wrote:

Haley (with Pence and Scott) is on the Nevada Primary ballot but the rest of the candidates are on the Caucus ballot, delegates are only given to those on the Caucus ballot, what is she doing

At first I thought she was living up to the birdbrain nickname, but she has probably figured she can spin it as a state primary win and hope some voters think she beat Trump & DeSantis.

You'll know if Trump thinks Haley is a threat if he calls Nimarata Randhawa, Haley is doing Trump's dirty work at the minute in stopping DeSantis.

I'm surprised Vivek hasn't brought that up at the debates yet.

2 polls since the ceasefire, Morning consult and Yougov, both showing a swing back to Biden, green shoots maybe.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24176628/11-20-23-sc-rpv-survey-memo.pdf

Haley up to 24% in South Carolina poll by Trump pollster Fabrizio. Not sure why this poll conducted November 12th-14th is being released now?

Mark Cuban leaving shark tank after 16 years and selling the Dallas Mavericks. I wonder what he is planning.

Koch brothers numbers.

.https://afpaction.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AFP-Action-Internal-Polling-Memo.pdf

In looking below the topline numbers at the second choice for voters, a plurality of DeSantis
voters say they would support Haley as their second choice while DeSantis does not get that
level of support from Haley voters.
• In NH, 34% of DeSantis’s supporters go to Haley, 29% to Trump. For Haley’s
supporters, only 24% go to DeSantis.
• In IA it’s more evenly split, with, 38% of DeSantis’s support going to Haley and 35% to
Trump.

I think it's clear that the only candidate going up consistently in the polls is Haley. She is still a long way behind though.

Looking at that just released Fabrizio South Carolina poll...

Hutchison 0%
Burgun 0%
Ramaswany 1%

Honestly, what is the point of them remaining in the race?

Ramaswamy has decent support in the market but I'm not sure why, I think it's probably his money.

That's some Burgmentum right there, Hutch, Burgum and Binkley are jokes and should drop out, only God knows where Hutch is funding all this. You'd have to think with Haley's rise in NH that Christie's time is almost up too.

Think people are forgetting DeSantis is still the most popular candidate in Iowa, has the Gov endorsement, has the Evangelical endorsement, has the farming endorsement and yet the odds are saying he almost has as much chance as Vivek, keep laying though pls

I have a gut feeling that DeSantis is busted. He was in a great position much earlier this year but his support has dwindled steadily as more folks got to know him.

imon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
·
2h
All 4 natl polls released this week have Biden leading Trump (via
@FiveThirtyEight
):

44-42 Economist/You Gov - 3 pt gain since mid-Nov
43-42 Morning Consult - 4 pt gain since last week
39-37 YouGov
37-35  Leger/The Canadian Press

Those recent national polls may suggest further movement away from Trump from moderates in upcoming primaries.

Ron had a clear route to inheriting the base from Trump four years down the line but chose the path of alienating them for reasons that are not very clear. He seems to be easily influenced when out of his comfort zone (instinctive plays at state level) by his consultants, and now by the endorsement of Reynolds which is the thing that will actually sink him, because she'll embolden him to alienate the base that even now still like him and are aligned with his positions.

As of 27th November Deantis' Superpac has spent
$4,500,000 attacking Haley
$  375,000 attacking Trump
Mediaite figures (via The Hill)

Pretty conclusive that he is playing to secure second place and reap the benefit of Trump being removed as a candidate by non electoral means. Three issues being that the base can see exactly what he's doing (opportunist vulturing), he is becoming more despised by Trump every day, and Vivek being still in the race (and who would receive the official nod of approval from Trump if he was successfully removed).

I have a gut feeling that DeSantis is busted.


DeSantis as a candidate for 2024 has been busted for weeks. What he's doing at the moment is carefully and comprehensively busting himself for 2028.

DeSantis is spending against Haley as he knows he has a good shot against Trump h2h, clear the field and pick up the anti-Trump vote. Why has Trump spent over $20 million against DeSantis and $0 against Haley? His team knows this also.

Who's to say if Trump loses again in 24 that he wouldn't run again in 28? I'm sure Trump will need the money more than ever in 28. And Biden is the perfect candidate to run against next year.

If Haley gets within 10pts of DeSantis in Iowa I will be absolutely shocked. Iowa is set up perfectly for him as NH and SC is for Haley.

Nov 29, 2023 -- 2:50PM, BestShot wrote:

If Haley gets within 10pts of DeSantis in Iowa I will be absolutely shocked. Iowa is set up perfectly for him as NH and SC is for Haley.

I think you are going to be shocked

Nov 29, 2023 -- 2:56PM, yak hunt wrote:

Nov 29, 2023 -- 8:50PM, BestShot wrote:If Haley gets within 10pts of DeSantis in Iowa I will be absolutely shocked. Iowa is set up perfectly for him as NH and SC is for Haley.I think you are going to be shocked

DeSantis has 9pts better fav than Trump, 13pts better than Haley and has since got the Reynolds endorsement and BVP's endorsement, DeSantis can actually make inroads into Trump's base, Haley has got Christie's to go after which ain't a hell of a lot.

I see one of Vivek's top advisors has gone to Trump's team, I wonder how long Vivek has got left.

DeSantis support fell markedly around the beginning to middle of August in Iowa opinion polls to around the mid to high teens and he has been sitting there ever since. You would have thought that if anything significant was going to happen to his support, would it not be noticeable by now?

Nov 29, 2023 -- 3:07PM, BestShot wrote:

I see one of Vivek's top advisors has gone to Trump's team, I wonder how long Vivek has got left.

Very interesting, thank you.

He should be doing better but his favourables have actually gone up, but I agree he should have some distance between himself and Haley like she does in NH. I'm counting on his ground game pulling him through, he's easily got the most endorsements, visited all 99 counties (just 1 left I believe), IMO if he does have a poor showing its not been from the lack of trying or bad organisation. As you say though, he needs to poll better as its almost a catch 22, people see you polling better and then more people have confidence that you can win and vice versa.

He has been trying hard and throwing plenty of funding at it but he just doesn't appear to be cutting through now with voters. The more they know about him, the less inclined they are to support him.

It's here! The Newsom DeSantis debate after three months of anticipation tonight.

It's a strange one. The third favourite for the Republican nomination debating the Governor of California who is not (officially) running to be President. This was Newsom's much viewed opinion on DeSantis agreeing to the debate.

'The fact that he took this debate, the fact that he took the bait in relation to this debate shows that he's completely unqualified to be the President of the United States.'

Most of the cold reality is coming in January but we'll get some of it tonight.

[i]The Calvin Coolidge Project
@TheCalvinCooli1

A source who is familiar with President Trump’s thinking tells me that
@RealBenCarson
is the leading frontrunner to be his Vice President choice in 2024 at this time

Not sure how informed this is but Dr Carson now down to single figures for VP. He is one of the most likeable figures the GOP have and he is black. Seem to be a different name thrown out every week though.

Newsom drifting a bit. He will probably rule it out again today but that could be offset with a good performance. Newsom & Biden's prices should be moving somewhat in tandem now, one drifts the other shortens and vice versa.

Haley 9/1 outright. I think she would be close to that price just to win NH or SC.

She is 5.25 to win New Hampshire on one American book I looked at.

I would rather back that then the outright price on here. If she doesn't win her most favourable state she isn't winning, but if she does win that state, she isn't odds on to win the presidency or even the nomination.

It's difficult to estimate the correct price for anyone in that GOP race because regarding Trump, you can't be certain where you are. He might be there at the end, then again he might not.

Nov 30, 2023 -- 7:51AM, blank wrote:

A source who is familiar with President Trump’s thinking tells me that @RealBenCarson is the leading frontrunner to be his Vice President choice in 2024 at this timeNot sure how informed this is but Dr Carson now down to single figures for VP. He is one of the most likeable figures the GOP have and he is black. Seem to be a different name thrown out every week though.

A 74 year old black man doesn't appear at first glance to be the Vice President Trump supporters would rally round.

Ron Filipkowski
@RonFilipkowski
·
30m
BREAKING: The FL State GOP Chair and his wife who co-founded Moms for Liberty are reportedly being investigated for sexual battery after a woman alleging she was in a sexual relationship with the couple filed a complaint.

A pretty bizarre story but DeSantis is really close to these folks.

I can't see Trump picking a white male for running mate. I think if Ron had focused on helping Trump rather than running against him he'd have almost been assured the running mate positition with a view to inheriting the base.

Trump likes Tim Scott (and Scott ticks a lot of boxes and is a good age) but something seems to have happened there.

You have to consider who the last black GOP Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate was.

Scott is allegedly gay. I don't think he would be picked.

The way Scott pulled out of the race without even telling his campaign team was very abrupt. Before that I had him down as an almost shoe-in to be the running mate.

I get what you're saying about Obama but I can't see how the base would be turned away from Trump by the VP pick and it would wreck the DNC friendly media's narrative that Trump is racist.

Nov 30, 2023 -- 12:22PM, Journeyman wrote:

The way Scott pulled out of the race without even telling his campaign team was very abrupt. Before that I had him down as an almost shoe-in to be the running mate.I get what you're saying about Obama but I can't see how the base would be turned away from Trump by the VP pick and it would wreck the DNC friendly media's narrative that Trump is racist.

Possibly you have picked me up wrong? Obama?

Woops. I missed the all important word 'GOP' in your post.

No probs.

Good article in today's Telegraph about the Newson vs Ron debate.

Why the rise of Gavin Newsom should worry the White House
www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2023/11/30/newsom-desantis-debate-presidential-2024-fox-sean-hannity/

Biden campaign source confirming Newsom gave them a heads up and made sure Biden's team was ok with this debate going ahead.

What can DeSantis hope to achieve in this debate? He hasn't been particularly impressive so far in the GOP candidate ones, although he has done ok. There must be a massive downside threat here for him surely?

Exactly. The upside is capped and the downside is unlimited. It makes little sense.

I think he's doing it for two reasons. Firstly he gets a chance to be seen properly going after an opponent 9which he can't do running against Trump because he's trying not to alienate Trump's base). Secondly he's thinking his record as Florida governor matches up well against Newsom's record as california governor (which it obviously does) but he's underestimating Newsom's political skills.

When Ron gets interviewed by DNC friendly media it usually follows the same format.

He'll make some quite good points on an issue, then the interviewer tries to get him to take a shot at Trump (eg do you think Trump is too old to be in the race) and then Ron refuses to bite and the interview dies. It must be very frustrating.

In this debate he can show the real pugilist Ron (or so he thinks).

Nov 30, 2023 -- 12:03PM, yak hunt wrote:

Ron Filipkowski@RonFilipkowski·30mBREAKING: The FL State GOP Chair and his wife who co-founded Moms for Liberty are reportedly being investigated for sexual battery after a woman alleging she was in a sexual relationship with the couple filed a complaint.A pretty bizarre story but DeSantis is really close to these folks.

Oh dear! Apparently, there are illegally made sex tapes of these gatherings. Mrs Moms for Liberty is Casey DeSantis best pal.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/29/chris-christie-should-drop-out-00129145

More people need to say it, why are you still in the race if your objective is to stop Trump, if he still lines up in Iowa which means he's lining up in NH then all the credibility he did have left will be gone.

Bestshot. I wondered why Christie is not in the Betfair Iowa market charts? You'll have to let me know if he does declare. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the 1.01 bets start to roll in... tick, tick

Of course, I'd back him (with the benefit of your advanced tip-off) and then be the second punter to back £1 at 1000.1 and then both of us could start "scalping" the latecomers. What could possibly go wrong?

RDS 1, Brylcreamed teeth, 0

I have been watching clips of the debate. Newsom is impressive, very impressive.

Newsom wanted to continue for another half hour and they all agreed to it and then went to an ad break and when they came back they were both gone. Hannity then said they both had other commitments. Looks like Ron didn't fancy it and did a runner.

New poll , Trump 68 , De Santos 9 , Haley 7
Ramaswamy , 4 ,

Watched first half hr or so of debate
Nothing we haven’t heard before or unexpected

Biden the only name on Florida primary ballot so he takes all the delegates.
.https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/30/florida-democrats-dean-phillips-election-00129403

California deadline in 2 weeks I think, so there's not going to be any late challenger, all about whether he decides to drop out.

Nov 30, 2023 -- 10:46PM, Jack Bauer "24" wrote:

Newsom wanted to continue for another half hour and they all agreed to it and then went to an ad break and when they came back they were both gone. Hannity then said they both had other commitments. Looks like Ron didn't fancy it and did a runner.

Newsom won if you're on the left and DeSantis won if you're on the right. Think DeSantis overall had the better night but was bound too with Hannity in the chair.

NBC and Politico confirm that Newsom's wife called it off.

2.5 weeks since an Iowa poll, only 4 polls in November and 2 of them were from Fabrizio/Trafalgar. Why are there not many polls? Polling is big business these days isn't it...

You feel there should be quite a few primary polls on the way. We are into December and companies will want to get polling done and published well before Christmas holidays.

Strictly, they could be waiting till after the fourth debate.

Possibly but even before now we're far behind 16 but maybe some pollsters have given up as they think its over?

Odds of Trafalgar getting Chistie 6% in a national poll on the 4th December...

Bro lived in Des Moines til he went to meet his maker last year - RIP - he used to say he was surrounded by Democrats but anyways, this morning on but365 Gavin Newsom was 6/1, on here he was 14/1. It could happen, put a tenner on but praying I don't win

Trump's reaction to Newson versus Desantis 'They both worked hard and they both did well.'
Source Fox Digital

Ever since Haley got the endorsement of the Koch-linked AFP Superpac (the one that Trump calls 'Americans for China Prosperity') there have just been signs that he's maybe shifting his focus to Haley a bit.

If you saw Trump's press release yesterday then I don't think you'd be saying that He's quite lucky he's not on Twitter anymore as he can basically say whatever he wants on TS.

But yes I agree, he has attacked Haley now too, his ego is so big and fragile that he can't stand to have someone think they can compete with him.

Polls are like Roman roads. Well maintained with a solid foundation in truth, they can be straight and truly lead you in the right direction. However, polls that buy data from The Epoch Times must be regarded as a twisted road to hell. Anyway, polls will not change the odds on Betfair.

Christie fails to get the 2,000 signatures needed to get on Maine ballot. Burgum & Binkley managed it.

.https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/chris-christie-may-not-appear-on-republican-primary-ballot-in-maine/

Dec 1, 2023 -- 7:03PM, askjack wrote:

Polls are like Roman roads. Well maintained with a solid foundation in truth, they can be straight and truly lead you in the right direction. However, polls that buy data from The Epoch Times must be regarded as a twisted road to hell. Anyway, polls will not change the odds on Betfair.

Yep, that's why following non biased polls means consistent profit.