Sep 3, 2021 -- 2:18PM, impossible123 wrote:
I think President Biden is a lame duck. How'd he win another term after Afghanistan political faux pas?
If the election were held tomorrow, there is no doubt about it, he would struggle. However, over three years to the next election is a helluva long time in the political world. Anything can and probably will happen.
Sep 9, 2021 -- 6:26AM, politicspunter wrote:
Trump is now 5.8 to win outright in 2024. Anyone that takes that price will have to be fairly sure that...a/ He is going to runb/ His health holds outc/ He is not in jail through the investigations into his businessd/ He can beat the Democrat candidate
I calculated all this a while back and thought Trump was a pretty good lay at 10s or so and have just got deeper since. Obviously he’ll trade much shorter if he ends up the nominee but I didn’t think that at all likely. This is a text I sent to my brother in June:-
I could try to get more money opposing him for next time at about 9.6. His chances of winning the 2024 presidential election feel an awful lot more remote than 1 in 10. Even if he’s allowed to stand rather than in jail, I don’t think he’s got a 1 in 10 shot. I know he’s still got the Republican Party hostage a bit but he’s not got anything like the reach or influence he had so I think there would be a chance of blocking him off, even if he did choose to stand, which in itself seems doubtful.
1. Trump eligible (not jailed or otherwise completely out of picture) 50%
2. Trump chooses to stand 40%
3. Trump wins nomination having stood 75%
4. Trump wins general election 40%
That’s 6% and all of those feel at least somewhat generous to him, although none of them are easy to calculate.
I may be wrong about any of them (Trump standing at 0.4 seems a bit low now but obviously v hard one to call) but they do need to be multiplied together still.
Sep 9, 2021 -- 7:03PM, tobermory wrote:
Rough probabilities:1. Trump eligible (not jailed or otherwise completely out of picture) 50%2. Trump chooses to stand 40%3. Trump wins nomination having stood 75%4. Trump wins general election 40%That’s 6% and all of those feel at least somewhat generous to him, although none of them are easy to calculate.These calculations seem way out to me.
Fair enough. It was 3 months back so I’d probably revise them somewhat now, as it’s another 3 months in which he’s not died, become obviously too infirm to stand (these are non negligible risks at his age) or gone on trial for anything and he seems keener and more involved with current politics than I thought he was back then too. I think the out of the picture 50% includes a few other things too, albeit accepting that huge scandals breaking haven’t exactly got rid of him from public life before.
I’d be willing to listen to cases that he’d be better than 75% to win the nomination too. Looking at my numbers now, that’s probably the one I’d say was out but strange things can happen. Perhaps I’m just trusting the market to have some wisdom in moving him from just under 10s to just under 6s.
Suggest your alternatives?
Sep 10, 2021 -- 1:37PM, tobermory wrote:
Trump to able to run ( not dead, in jail etc) 88%Trump decides to run - 70%Trump wins nomination - 90%Trump wins election - 50%So about 3.35 I thinkI think people who despise Trump should consider whether their dislike is colouring their view of the probabilities of his going to prison. The last 5 years on here - at any point in time - there have always been a bunch of people telling us that Trump is only 6 months away from being successfully impeached or imprisoned. When their hopes collapse on one count they just move on to the next thing, optimism undimmed.... "Yeah, but wait for Mueller...." Trump has been doing what he does with his businesses for 50 years, that he is going to be nailed for something now seems wishful thinking.The main reason given Trump wouldn't actually want to run, is that 'he couldn't cope with losing again'. But Trump does not accept he lost last time, and neither do most of his supporters. He was going to call 2016 a fraud if he lost to Hilary (and he expected to lose). Of course he would just have the same approach for 2024.If Trump wants the Republican nomination I can't see what is going to stop him really. Last time he defeated formidable establishment and right wing Republicans, and I would expect the field to be weaker next time.For the election I'd have to make it 50-50 at this point. I see people saying '"he lost to Biden so we know he can't beat him". This seems to assume what happens in Biden's first term is almost irrelevant. Biden's record is going to be on the line, and the signs so far are not good. And, incredibly, Biden is still likely to be the best candidate the Democrats will have.
You’re perhaps right about the jail issue and certainly about dislike for Trump colouring analysis but I don’t really buy that him having got away with it before means there’s no material risk. I certainly think your 88% is far too high but at least as much for health reasons. His death chance in the next slightly over 3 years is probably around 12% on its own and yearly disabling illness chances are also significant at 75.
I would agree that he doesn’t think he lost. Whether he meets diagnostic criteria or not, he’s got significant narcissistic traits and he won’t ever think he lost anything fairly. That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t fear another defeat though.
I’ve also got Trump as heavy favourite to win the nomination if he wants it but accidents can happen. On balance though, he’d be difficult to oppose effectively. You may be closer than me here.
Incumbents don’t lose all that often. Assuming Biden himself wants to stand and isn’t dead or too infirm to do so (as per the Trump numbers, these can’t be relied upon), I think he’d be a favourite but it’s arguable that history is of limited value in assessing the current incredibly partisan state of US politics. If you looked at precedent, there would be a very low chance of Trump standing again too.
Sep 10, 2021 -- 2:42PM, tobermory wrote:
Bush Snr, Jimmy Carter were a big let down to their own voters, so no chance they'd get another shot.Trump's supporters all voted for him again, he increased his vote. So very different.
The massive increase in the vote for both the Democrat and Republican candidates was almost solely related to the Covid pandemic with over 100 million votes cast before election day.
Sep 10, 2021 -- 2:40PM, tobermory wrote:
OK, due to age I'd have to lower that 88% quite a bit, but still I'd have his availability a lot higher than 50/50. So perhaps 70%. I doubt Trump has done anything that he can't blame on someone else. The guy that gave the stripper cash went to jail even though it seems obvious who told him to do that.I don't think Biden is a typical incumbent. Most presidents are seen as having an 8 year job unless something terrible happens in the first term, but Biden has never even been clear himself that he is going to run for 2 terms, and I think there is already a big doubt unrelated to how well his first term goes.
I agree with most of this. I didn’t think Biden would run a second time initially and am still sceptical.
Sep 11, 2021 -- 10:37AM, politicspunter wrote:
The thing no one can guesstimate though is for contenders previously unconsidered to emerge. Trump and Obama weren't short prices pre election, Pete Buttigieg from the last campaign springs to mind also.
Agree. There are reasons why the nominees might be the obvious ones this time, with Biden standing for re-election perhaps the default (I think Dems will try to persuade him to stand if he’s polling okay, as Harris doesn’t poll so well) but also quite strong reasons, including obviously age, why they might not be. I know Biden and Trump are both looking in reasonable shape right now but it’s over 3 years to Election Day and even if both were convinced they wanted to run, there’s a solid chance that a health problem could intervene. I guess prices do reflect that, for Biden especially, given how solid a bet an incumbent usually is.