Politics
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11 Nov 20
14:39
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20 Mar 18
Multiple markets up now from various firms on 2024 President plus Democratic and Republican candidates.
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Replies: 16,986
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Hopefully Betfair will have settled the 2020 Presidential market by 2024.
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600 million and counting ,why are people still betting donald ?
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10/1 there's no 2024 election according to the 2020 Trump price
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Biggy for me is who dems would run
if trump stands. Change law so folk can run more than twice Bring back Obama? Trump could hardly oppose the legislation! |
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Republicans did really well in 2020 House and Senate elections, the only name republicans wouldn't vote for was Trump. If Republicans have any sense (doubtful) they will pick a candidate who is as un-Trump like as possible. Perhaps a centre ground moderate, possibly a female.
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Slightly more relevant
Would Harris defeat trump? I'd make trump Fav... |
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Trump will be 78 in 2024. His health isn't the best now, what will it be like in four years time? Harris would be favourite for me v Trump.
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Betbald have Trump as 4.0 favourite for Republican candidate. Next up are Pence (7) and Haley (8) then some joke candidates like Ivanka ( 13) and Tucker Carlson (17).
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Smarkets have a market up on the 2024 Democrat candidate. Biden (3.3) Harris (3.7) lead the way there.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nina_Turner
Smarkets have this lady at 16s in their Democratic nominee market. I must confess I had never heard of her. |
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If you ask me, she's simply the best candidate out there .......
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I'd want 4s on Trump being alive in 2024..
 same with Biden.. |
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Pence won't get it. He is simply a tack on to get the Evangelical vote.
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Scaramucci?
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Smarkets have their republican nominee market up now. They go Trump senior 3.35 followed by Trump junior (6), Pence (6.4), Tom Cotton (6.6) and Tucker Carlson at 7.0.
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Cotton is some value - young enough to be new generation and as right wing as they come. He would be a competent Trump
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Biden rumoured to be wanting
to distance from bernie and Warren. So likely they will be not wanting association with left of party. Harris will need to position herself well to win nom if sleepy Joe only does one term. |
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Republicans are dreaming if they think a moderate will get 70 million votes.
Trump might well run whether he gets the nomination or not. |
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The Covid circumstances from this years election were exceptional. It's very difficult to guess where we will be turnout wise in four years.
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Kamala Harris short odds are largely due to the 'Biden won't see out his term' factor, so that she is the incumbent.
If Joe makes it through I doubt she would get close to the nomination. Either Biden will run again or someone like Cuomo would defeat her. |
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Obviously, if Trump runs as an independent (and he might) the republicans are busted.
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Thinking about that, Trump has the republican party over a barrel. Pick him or he will run as an independent.
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Yes, absolutely pp. Don't go with me and I'll take my ball home and my maga cult base. Four years is a very long time though and I wouldn't want to back low odds on him even going for nomination let alone winning 2024. It would be delicious to see him run as an Ind though and split up the conservative vote. I thought that's what he would run as before he decided he was now GOP. The GOP deserve to go down in flames for what they are enabling. When will BF add this market? 2023?
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2023? You'll be lucky
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Covid circumstances from this years election were exceptional. It's very difficult to guess where we will be turnout wise in four years.
Shirley the biggest driver of votes on both sides was djt. |
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Someone has backed Tom Cotton down to 11.5 in another place. Surely that is a ridiculously short price at this stage?
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That is to win the 2024 Presidential election outright btw.
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In a large field I would in general suggest to lay low prices pretty hard, although it’s not entirely clear what you’d call a low price!
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As has been said, Trump has the Republican party by the short and curlies.
Even if he doesn't run himself and supports his idiot son. If either don't win the nomination, there are enough fools willing to vote "Trump" that split the vote hugely and would let the Dems in. It'll be really interesting to see how things play out once Biden takes over. Desperate Don is not the type to go quietly, as we can all see. |
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Absolutely. Any possible Rebuclican candidate for nominee might be sunk before their campaign is even launched. Trump standing as an independent would guarantee a democrat winner.
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I am just wondering what sort of price should Kamala Harris be to win outright? Is Joe Biden likely to stand for another term aged 82? Surely that has to be doubtful, perhaps even extremely doubtful. So, would Kamala Harris not become clear favourite to be the Democratic nominee? Definitely. That's not to say she would receive the nomination of course but it's more likely than not. Then we come to the Republican challenge. If Trump receives the Republican nomination, I have a strong gut feeling that Harris will beat him. If Trump stands as an independent, the democrat candidate will win, guaranteed. So what price should Harris be? Hills,Fred and Skybet go 4.5. Ladbrokes/Corals go 5.0. Smarkets go 5.8.
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I think it would be too early for her,
unless she becomes president in next 2-3 years. But is there a better, more logical pick? I guess the best idea is as above lay the shorties, and watch. Laying trump, Biden and harris would leave loads of room to make a nice book |
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Yes, that seems a decent strategy at this early stage. Probably throw in Pence as well for good measure as I don't believe he will ever escape being associated with Trump.
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Yes, if under 20/1...
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Having had a quick look about, Pence is currently in the 10-12/1 bracket.
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Aye, but I doubt he would
be on here(to lay) ,... Probably |
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I would be very careful of laying Harris unless it’s at a really low price. There’s a non trivial chance that she becomes president herself in time to have the large incumbency advantage and even if not, I think she’s a very good shot for the nomination. I can’t really see Biden having another go at 82.
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I’d lay Pence fairly happily. He’s got zero charisma and some bad associations, even before you’ve got to his own very dubious and far right policy positions.
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