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politicspunter
11 Nov 20 14:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 43,389 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Multiple markets up now from various firms on 2024 President plus Democratic and Republican candidates.
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Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 2:14 PM GMT
So you are claiming he didn't he didn't say Liz Cheney would be executed by firing squad? I am surprised you are claiming that, because it sounds like exactly the type of thing he would say.
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:15 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 8:10AM, edy wrote:


Results to only be accepted in the form of an essay. Due date Tuesday.


3 PM St. Petersburg time on Tuesday for the essay.

Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 2:16 PM GMT
Are there any others?
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:16 PM GMT
There will be follow-up assignments, but I don't want to overwork you for now.
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:18 PM GMT
If you wish to, you can e.g. work Biden's "bull's eye remark" into it as part of your argument in your essay. I think that would be a good addition.
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:20 PM GMT
If I recall correctly, you argued strongly how bad and incendiary the bull's eye remark was, so you could work the contrast angle here. Explain why one was maybe better or worse than the other. The contexts of the respective remarks etc.
Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 2:24 PM GMT
That's nothing to do with Trump being a dirty rotter. Are there any others from my list that are wrong in your opinion that I should know about?
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:24 PM GMT
As I said, we will get to that after you turned in your essay.
Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 2:32 PM GMT
If there's only one you disagree with I will assume the rest are true. I am fairly sure the trusted Democrat media would never mislead me on anything important.
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:34 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 8:24AM, edy wrote:


As I said, we will get to that after you turned in your essay.


Preferrably as a PDF built with TeX please.

Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 2:35 PM GMT
Final Swing States Poll by NYT/Siena

NORTH CAROLINA
Harris: 48% (+2)
Trump: 46%

GEORGIA
Harris: 48% (+1)
Trump: 47%

WISCONSIN
Harris: 49% (+2)
Harris: 47%

NEVADA
Harris: 49% (+3)
Trump: 46%

MICHIGAN
Harris: 47% (=)
Trump: 47%

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 48% (=)
Harris: 48%

ARIZONA
Trump: 49% (+4)
Harris: 45%

#1 (3.0/3.0) | 10/29-11/2 | Likely voters
https://nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/03/us/elections/times-siena-battleground-poll-crosstabs.html
Report unitedbiscuits November 3, 2024 2:40 PM GMT
Wow, Trump 1.86, both sides of the pond.
Report Jack Bauer "24" November 3, 2024 2:41 PM GMT
The market is still wrong. Harris is the real favourite.
Report Escapee November 3, 2024 2:47 PM GMT
Edy, one day you're going to walk into  public toilet and find it in a real state, someone's urinated all over the seat and floor, and your initial thought will be "FFS OMG how can someone be so antisocial and piss everywhere?"

Then you'll have a moment of clarity, a small smile, as you think "Oh yeah, I repeatedly urinated all over the election betting thread, this is exactly what I did"
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:50 PM GMT
I would never ask how someone could possibly be so antisocial. I know men.
Report Escapee November 3, 2024 2:51 PM GMT
Every time you see a puddle of urine at a bus stop, a graffiti'd train, a keyed car, an upturned rubbish bin, you'll think oh yeah, that's what I did to the betfair election betting thread.
Report edy November 3, 2024 2:54 PM GMT
What kind of an environment do you live in that puddles of urine at a bus stop and upturned rubbish bins are a real thing? Do you live in civilisation?
Report edy November 3, 2024 3:23 PM GMT
Either way, Ronald will be busy with his essay until 3p PM St. Petersburg time on Tuesday, so there should be minimal worry for you until then.
Report Whisperingdeath November 3, 2024 3:30 PM GMT
Oh Edy

Have you ever been to East London?

It smells of urine. People walk out of the tube station and urinate against the station wall.

If is another legacy of Margaret Thatcher. She sold off all the public toilets
Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 3:31 PM GMT
Those Sienna polls look fine. I am fairly sure that Trump has a clear edge in Arizona. After that it's far from clear but very competitive. I reckon Harris has a small edge in Wisconsin and Michigan but I am certain that she has been underestimated in both Georgia and North Carolina. Huge turnout, black and women vote, all Harris box tickers.
Report the old nanny ;-) November 3, 2024 3:32 PM GMT
LaughI have heard it all now

Do you pish on the streets WD ?
Report the old nanny ;-) November 3, 2024 3:33 PM GMT
Presidential Thread and  Thatcher is brought in to it PMSL
Report Sergeant Cecil November 3, 2024 3:39 PM GMT
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852882487543726434

This is funny. Pointing out that the Selzer poll shows a huge swing towards Dems amongst women vs 2020 as a sign it's wrong with no sense of self-awareness is so good.
Report TheManFromUtopia November 3, 2024 3:44 PM GMT
Hi Yak, just been looking at WV again. On the face of it that looks even better than KS on EV data so far. A smaller (13%) gap between Rep & Dem, vs 17% gap for KS. I'm wondering if you think the Iowa findings could also apply, re the older females 2-1 bias and Dems' share of the Rep & Indie votes?

What do you reckon? I just laid 5K for 50 for now. Maybe I'm overlooking something?
Report TheManFromUtopia November 3, 2024 3:51 PM GMT
Oh oh, looks like fredi just woke up again. 1.4m to lay @ 1.8 on BF ffs.
Report Escapee November 3, 2024 3:58 PM GMT
£1.4million wanting to back Trump at 1.8
Report unitedbiscuits November 3, 2024 4:32 PM GMT
Polymarket rules:

READ THE RULES: This Presidential Market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 3, 2024 4:37 PM GMT
Fox will call it for trump, and then...
Report xmoneyx November 3, 2024 5:01 PM GMT
he will lose ExcitedWink
Report SamuelMertensBertens November 3, 2024 5:08 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 10:32AM, unitedbiscuits wrote:


Polymarket rules:READ THE RULES: This Presidential Market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.


Good news if you are a Kamala backer on Poly and we have a repeat of 2020.

You can then collect your winnings on election night with Poly, then deposit those into Betfair, back Kamala again and win again.

Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 5:09 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 9:44AM, TheManFromUtopia wrote:


Hi Yak, just been looking at WV again. On the face of it that looks even better than KS on EV data so far. A smaller (13%) gap between Rep & Dem, vs 17% gap for KS. I'm wondering if you think the Iowa findings could also apply, re the older females 2-1 bias and Dems' share of the Rep & Indie votes? What do you reckon? I just laid 5K for 50 for now. Maybe I'm overlooking something?


I don't fancy her chances in West Virginia at all.

Report unitedbiscuits November 3, 2024 5:31 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 8:41AM, Jack Bauer "24" wrote:


The market is still wrong. Harris is the real favourite.


That may be but I doubt Freddi's Fiscal Power will run out in the next 48hours ..

Report Escapee November 3, 2024 5:35 PM GMT
The female skew in Iowa is likely due to Roe vs Wade.

Iowa now has the most draconian abortion laws, and women are dying with ectopic pregnancies etc.
The skew might not spread to states where women still have some alternatives to a death sentence if their pregnancy goes wrong.
Report TheManFromUtopia November 3, 2024 5:37 PM GMT
"I don't fancy her chances in West Virginia at all."
Any particular reason?
Report Jack Bauer "24" November 3, 2024 5:42 PM GMT
Emerson usually leans towards Trump and they also released a poll from Iowa yesterday showing him leading 53-43. Ann Selzer knows Iowa better than any other pollster as she specialises there and she seems to be picking up something most other pollsters are missing that could well be replicated nationally.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 3, 2024 5:43 PM GMT
Iowa now has the most draconian abortion laws, and women are dying with ectopic pregnancies etc.
The skew might not spread to states where women still have some alternatives to a death sentence if their pregnancy goes wrong.


Fair point, but women in other rust belt and swing states might also see what is happening in Iowa and think what if that happens here. Because that's what Project 2025 loons will want.
Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 5:48 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 11:37AM, TheManFromUtopia wrote:


"I don't fancy her chances in West Virginia at all."Any particular reason?


Yes, Trump won the state in 2020 by 39%.

Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 6:02 PM GMT
Regarding the Iowa Selzer polls. In June she had Trump ahead against Biden 50-32. By September Trump was still ahead but only by 47-43 against Harris. It's surely reasonable to assume that Harris may close the gap again in a later poll and she has. Same methods, looks a distinct possibility that the Iowa expert Selzer is on the ball.
Report blank November 3, 2024 6:10 PM GMT
Selzer is on Halperin's show now discussing the poll.

.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtFjJXftf2I&ab_channel=2WAY
Report TheManFromUtopia November 3, 2024 6:18 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 11:48AM, yak hunt wrote:


Nov  3, 2024 --  5:37PM, TheManFromUtopia wrote:"I don't fancy her chances in West Virginia at all."Any particular reason?Yes, Trump won the state in 2020 by 39%.


Hmmm, seems a good reason then. I was wondering how come the EVs so far aren't looking any better for KS  than WV, slightly worse in fact. Probably comparing apples with pears though. Funny old game innit?

Report Whisperingdeath November 3, 2024 6:26 PM GMT
There is a French geezer pumping millions on Chump in betting markets

I think he is a known gambler but would love to see his source of funds.
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 6:45 PM GMT
Chuck another million on rhe fire lol
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 6:45 PM GMT
It's probably a premier league futbla
Report the old nanny ;-) November 3, 2024 6:47 PM GMT
Million Up again For Trump , all very strange this Market
Report unitedbiscuits November 3, 2024 6:49 PM GMT
Priced to go
Report blank November 3, 2024 7:03 PM GMT
This is maybe the fourth or fifth big bet for Trump, there's 3 clear lines on the graph topping £500k on him.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! November 3, 2024 7:07 PM GMT
Apparently Trump will claim a defeat was illegal
Because the betting markets
Said he win!!!

You cannot make it UP
LaughLaughLaugh
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 7:08 PM GMT
Them cryptos cannot be wrong chumpy
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 7:11 PM GMT
Does not compute
Report blank November 3, 2024 7:33 PM GMT
Looks like a £3m bet on Trump was just taken.
Report A_T November 3, 2024 7:37 PM GMT
last time people kept betting on him even after he lost
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 3, 2024 7:42 PM GMT
They bet on other candidates who could not win under betfair rules too.
Report SamuelMertensBertens November 3, 2024 7:42 PM GMT
a new wall on Trump 1.8 just appeared
Report blank November 3, 2024 7:46 PM GMT
And taken. Hopefully someone is trying to keep the Trump price down but someone else is arbing it on Kalshi or Poly.
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 8:04 PM GMT
Yep, 6m matched on 1.8 last time i looked
Report the old nanny ;-) November 3, 2024 8:04 PM GMT
Maybe Mr Musk is slinging a few quid at the Market , Or millions he gave away had a Clause, Must bet Trump on BF Happy
Report SamuelMertensBertens November 3, 2024 8:05 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 12:10PM, blank wrote:


Selzer is on Halperin's show now discussing the poll..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtFjJXftf2I&ab_channel=2WAY


Listening to this now and just read her wiki page.

She has an excellent track record, but there's still the chance of it being a bad poll even though she's using the same methodology as before.

Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 8:05 PM GMT
1.66 and 1.67 both 7m
Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 8:09 PM GMT
Is the blue wall the rust belt states or is it the Harris price on oddschecker?
Report SamuelMertensBertens November 3, 2024 8:12 PM GMT
rust belt
Report SamuelMertensBertens November 3, 2024 8:13 PM GMT
nevermind
Report blank November 3, 2024 8:14 PM GMT
Without Selzer I'd still have Kamala as favourite, the polling forecasts overall are 50/50 but they're getting flooded with the likes of Atlas that are rated highly based only on 2020, but have been poor in their home continent. Kamala has the small donor edge, polling better at district level, Lichtman, 2022 results, Nikki Haley voters and low inflation in the rust belt states.
Report SamuelMertensBertens November 3, 2024 8:15 PM GMT
I have understood both terms to be about MI, WI, and PA but it seems the definition of them vary.
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 8:17 PM GMT
Don't forget the most important factor blank - vastly superior ground game
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 8:18 PM GMT
And not being a senile nazi kernt
Report edy November 3, 2024 8:18 PM GMT
Ronaldmcdonald • October 3, 2024 11:49 AM BST
There are many people who fled from communist countries who have warned they are seeing the same things happening in America as happened in their countries when the communists took over. Yeonmi Parks, Garry Kasparov, Václav Havel and many others have warned about the rise of leftist authoritarians and drawn parallels between the rise of authoritarian policies in the U.S. and their experiences in communist countries. The lunatics on the left think it's all a joke because it's such a fun sport to prosecute political opponents. They will be the first to complain when there's nothing else to eat and they have to barbecue their dogs like the Haitians.


https://thedispatch.com/article/us-descend-authoritarianism-trump-harris/

Kasparov wrote a column.
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 8:19 PM GMT
That definitely helps a little
Report blank November 3, 2024 8:21 PM GMT
Ah yes.

In most fields you would take what the best person thinks over the consensus of those without the same record.
Report yak hunt November 3, 2024 8:27 PM GMT
Selzer and also internal Dem polling data indicates that late deciders are breaking for Harris. That could easily be enough to win it outright in this very close race.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 3, 2024 8:32 PM GMT
Early, late decides.... They need to hope late late decides are not trumpers...
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 3, 2024 8:32 PM GMT
Deciders not decides... Ffs phone
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 8:32 PM GMT
Seems a shame after all the effort they put into madison sq gardens. Hulk hogan put his back out trying to tear the shirt
Report Escapee November 3, 2024 8:33 PM GMT

In most fields you would take what the best person thinks over the consensus of those without the same record.


No no, This is where you're going wrong, First you must consider what Trump's opinion might be.

CrazyLaugh

Report blank November 3, 2024 9:51 PM GMT
LOL. He's a good salesman but I'm not backing him to win NY or CA, or drinking bleach.
Report Sergeant Cecil November 3, 2024 9:56 PM GMT
https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1853117763797074196?t=Jzs3uwnEaoJh7PIOHoMqh...
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 9:58 PM GMT
That's a decent indie return rate now
Report Whisperingdeath November 3, 2024 10:05 PM GMT
Stop the steal!

Let’s go!
Report edy November 3, 2024 10:05 PM GMT
Nice of Trump to campaign for David McCormick today.
Report SontaranStratagem November 3, 2024 10:10 PM GMT
1.8 I'm surprised it's not 2 plus by now

He's got little chance now with the women voting Harris
Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 10:17 PM GMT
Clever old Kasparov. Except not so clever because it's the Democrats who are locking up their political opponents.
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 10:19 PM GMT
Throw some more dollars on the fire elon, looks like you are losing!
Report tobermory November 3, 2024 10:38 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 2:59AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Go all in kam toby, you know you want to


No way George. Trump is a sound favourite. I'm expecting MAGA turnout on Tuesday to be immense.

Report Lifter November 3, 2024 10:42 PM GMT
I imagine the wait for payout is going to very long..
Report SontaranStratagem November 3, 2024 10:43 PM GMT
Lifter

Yes because will refuse to accept defeat

He's going to throw an almighty fit on Wednesday can't wait
Report Lifter November 3, 2024 10:46 PM GMT
Yeah, I'll be topping up by taking the worse odds elsewhere, as I'll atleast get paid this year Laugh
Report edy November 3, 2024 10:47 PM GMT
Trump, he said, was almost “functionally illiterate” but did read the Page Six gossip column in the New York Post. He was “incapable” of reading a balance sheet, and any “act of kindness” would have been an accident, Epstein said

https://www.thedailybeast.com/listen-to-the-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-i-was-donald-trumps-closest-friend/

Had my doubts about the validity, but that seems like a very legit account.
Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 10:47 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 4:38PM, tobermory wrote:


Nov  3, 2024 --  8:59AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:Go all in kam toby, you know you want toNo way George. Trump is a sound favourite. I'm expecting MAGA turnout on Tuesday to be immense.


Good luck with half of your bets toby.  It's been a good arm wrestle with you

Report GeorgeBrush November 3, 2024 10:48 PM GMT

Nov 3, 2024 -- 4:47PM, edy wrote:


Trump, he said, was almost “functionally illiterate” but did read the Page Six gossip column in the New York Post. He was “incapable” of reading a balance sheet, and any “act of kindness” would have been an accident, Epstein saidhttps://www.thedailybeast.com/listen-to-the-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-i-was-... my doubts about the validity, but that seems like a very legit account.


Sounds like arry redknapp. And just as popular

Report edy November 3, 2024 10:58 PM GMT
The world would have had a truly historic moment if Trump had had to go up in a written exam against Harris, subject irrelevant, with the entire affair broadcast live.
Report Jack Bauer "24" November 3, 2024 11:10 PM GMT
He keeps calling her low IQ and dumber than Biden etc. She should have called his bluff at the debate and challenged him to a written and oral, general knowledge and IQ test to be broadcast on live TV. No way would he have shown up and she would have exposed him for the coward that he is and then continuing to taunting him for the rest of campaign.
Report Jack Bauer "24" November 3, 2024 11:11 PM GMT
To taunt.
Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 11:14 PM GMT
I think she would win the oral.
Report edy November 3, 2024 11:21 PM GMT
Should have made it US history for extra ownage of the pretend patriot.
Report Ronaldmcdonald November 3, 2024 11:23 PM GMT
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1853190866200109088
/
Report edy November 3, 2024 11:23 PM GMT
The MAGAs would of course have sniffed a conspiracy at the mere thought of Jesus being less knowledgeable than the Samoan-Malaysian low IQ candidate, as Tucker Carlson put it before breaking in laughter, but for everybody else it would have been splendid entertainment.
Report edy November 3, 2024 11:27 PM GMT
The campaign and adjacent supporters of the promiscuous adulterer trying to continuously slutshame a woman is bound to be so be so impressive for the general population that isn't living for circle jerk memes. Especially with Taylor Swift fans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqAJLh9wuZ0
Report blank November 4, 2024 2:11 AM GMT
Another poll showing late movement to Harris. What's also interesting is that they say they think they're underestimating Harris.

Final MICHIGAN poll by Mitchell Research for Michigan News Source

2-WAY
Harris: 50%
Trump: 48%

Last poll (10/28) - Trump+1

“Before polling began, we looked at what we thought would be the likely turnout in 2024. Every poll we
conducted --- including this one --- was weighted exactly the same. We weighted party affiliation, gender, age,
race, area, and education. It seems clear now that we are under sampling women, African Americans, and the
City of Detroit based on absentee ballot returns and early voting. However, to assure we are comparing ‘apples
to apples,’ we kept the same weights we have used all along. Because of our strong belief in transparency, we
always include our crosstabs, so it is easy to substantiate our use of the same weights on every poll.
Report blank November 4, 2024 2:30 AM GMT
“As pollsters, we are of course aware of what other pollsters are showing. But, having done this for forty years,
you just have to follow your numbers and see what happens. My intuition (based on the interviews
conducted later in the week by texting voters and directing them to a SurveyMonkey poll), is that this race
could move out for Harris. But my numbers are from Tuesday-Saturday and therefore that is what I’m
releasing,” Mitchell said.


Selzer has them running.
Report tobermory November 4, 2024 4:12 AM GMT
£5M put up to back Trump @1.79
Report Jack Bauer "24" November 4, 2024 4:24 AM GMT
Musk, Thiel and Co can keep throwing their money away trying to hide his weakness but it's not going to change the outcome.

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