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politicspunter
11 Nov 20 14:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 43,389 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Multiple markets up now from various firms on 2024 President plus Democratic and Republican candidates.
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Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 12:29 AM BST
What has the 2nd world war got to do with me? If I had been around at that time, I suspect I would probably not have been in favour of joining, but I don't know enough about it.
Report edy April 4, 2024 12:33 AM BST
You said the Democrats were evil for helping Ukraine in its fight for national survival from an invading force.

People tried to use the same logic about prolonging the war, killing people by giving the UK weapons and funding was used during world war 2. I wanted to know if the US was evil for doing that and with it helping that you guys were not nazified. I didn't want to know if you would have joined.
Report edy April 4, 2024 12:34 AM BST
*killing people by the US giving the UK...
Report edy April 4, 2024 12:36 AM BST
So was it evil from the Democrats that they helped see to the UK not being run by a German puppet government and to seeing that you don't have your culture, your language germanified/nazified, dissenters killed and dictatorship established?
Report edy April 4, 2024 12:39 AM BST
Just realised this does not work if you are one of those total weirdos who would be like "Nazis were quite sweet. So much better than the evil decadent wokes". I really hope you aren't one of those.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 12:40 AM BST
Yes consigning hundreds of thousands of men to a premature death is evil. Ukraine is not in a fight for national survival. They are going to lose territory regardless, that was obvious from the start. Wasting the lives of young men will achieve nothing for their country. Did the US prolong ww2? They didn't join until the end, and I would have thought it ended more quickly because they joined.
Report edy April 4, 2024 12:46 AM BST
Did the US prolong ww2? They didn't join until the end, and I would have thought it ended more quickly because they joined.


They gave countries like the UK material and funds to help them survive for years. Do they teach you guys that the US were completely uninvolved in all matters WW2 until they officially joined the war? Seriously?

Ukraine is not in a fight for national survival.

So you are mind reading Putin and saying he and his state media are lying about the goals of the war?

Just to be clear: Let us suppose Ukraine gets no material anymore. Are you seriously suggesting that Putin will then go: "SIKE! All I said up to this point was a joke. Ukraine is defenceless, so let's settle for what was de facto already mostly under Russian control before February 2022."

This is what you believe?
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 12:52 AM BST
They were ready to make a deal shortly after the war started and Boris stopped it. Ukraine would have got better terms then than now. The deal they can negotiate now will is not likely to be as favourable to Ukraine. That's the price of fighting a futile war.
Report edy April 4, 2024 12:56 AM BST
Oh, a fan of far left tankie GrayZone disinformation? Imagine my shock!
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 1:04 AM BST
I don't think it's disinformation, because Boris did not deny it when he was asked about it. But you always get lies from both sides in a war. You can't rely on anything that comes out of a war zone.
Report edy April 4, 2024 1:07 AM BST
I'm just going to throw this in

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDK0v0BWMAA-v6W?format=jpg&name=large

Still not clear on what you think though. So Ukraine stop getting funds and weapons. What is likely to happen?
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 1:12 AM BST
You can't rely on anything that comes out of a war zone. I suppose now you warmongers have a taste of blood you want to make sure you finish off the rest of the ukrainian conscripts. Evil is the only word for it.
Report edy April 4, 2024 1:14 AM BST
What is likely to happen, mate? Stop dancing.
Report edy April 4, 2024 1:49 AM BST
I mean, in general dancing is cool, but if you only do it so you can keep considering others evil bloodthirsty warmongers, unlike yourself, then it's kind of lame. At least be brave enough to admit that you think and know, unlike previously stated, Ukraine is very much in a fight for national survival and that you of course are not really so extraordinarily naive enough to believe that Putin would not take a defenceless Ukraine and subject its population to all sorts of things if they do not fall into line.
Report Escapee April 4, 2024 2:01 AM BST
He's gone edy, as I said, 10 more post's till he needs the wet wipes.
You're going to have to wait a few hours for more action unless he pops a viagra.



This thread is fecked, there's going to be 300 posts of dross between a couple of betting relevant posts.
Report edy April 4, 2024 2:41 AM BST
Shame. It's really hard to find quality personnell these days. Kids these days lack guts.

I find what you pointed out earlier makes him one of the most fascinating characters ever on this forum. That he is completely stuck to this one thread. No interest whatsoever in any of the UK politics threads even though he asked Jack why a UK person would get so supposedly invested in US stuff. Their contract for the use of the hacked and abandoned Ronaldmcdonald account must be terribly restricted to this one thread.

Will see if I can get him to migrate to another thread next time I encounter him.

https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31837621/the-worlds-best-thread-to-discuss-all-things-republicans-democrats-and-two-old-men-402024-edition41

.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 8:37 AM BST
I have posted on many many other subjects, particularly uk horseracing, and us racing but a lot of my posts are too old to still be visible. I think they must be deleting posts after a certain length of time.
Report edy April 4, 2024 9:12 AM BST
Ok, completely stuck to this one thread since the dormant account was hacked and taken over by you then.

So you joining the new discussion thread in order to clean it up and divide between betting talk (this thread) and very serious and important debate on the non-betting side (new thread)?
Report edy April 4, 2024 9:49 AM BST
Let us not needlessly, albeit of course unintentionally, sabotage the visibility of valuable betting posts such as this, Ronald:

Journeyman • March 31, 2024 8:41 PM BST
It's interesting that the floodgates opening for media attacks on RFK Jr has been kicked off by the Shanahan VP pick.

This is the Hill's take
'The independent’s rollout this week of patent lawyer and investor Nicole Shanahan as his vice president prompted Biden allies and liberal groups to escalate efforts against him, fearing his newfound cash flow and ballot access could be disastrous in November.
With a wealthy running mate by Kennedy’s side, Democrats say they should work harder to diminish his chances, insisting they need to spotlight his controversial positions and do whatever they can to make him an electoral afterthought.
“Democrats should use every tool available to them to expose the truth about Kennedy and Shanahan,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic operative.
“Expose that they have no path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win,” Gordon said.
“Expose the fact that both Kennedy and Shanahan have peddled conspiracy theories for years. Expose the fact that their run is helping [former President Trump] return to the White House,” he added.'

The other factor though is Gabbard not being picked. Up until recently she was equally touted to be RFK Jr's VP pick as Trump's and that would have certainly shifted the appeal of the ticket to a more balanced drain on potential Trump and Biden voters (Gabbard is very well respected across the Republican party, solid military credentials, loved for crossing the floor).

As things stand with Gabbard a close 2nd favourite to be Trump's VP pick (I flagged her up on this thread when she was high double figures) the RFK/ Shanahan ticket is a nightmare for the DNC.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 4, 2024 9:55 AM BST
I haven't hacked anything, I am the original 1 and only. I can go to another thread but I will need to stay on this one as well so I can keep an eye on the TDS victims.
Report edy April 4, 2024 10:03 AM BST
Well of course you also need to stay in this one to keep an eye on the evils, that goes without saying.
Report blank April 4, 2024 3:48 PM BST
Trump 2.3, Biden 2.42.

I assume the PA poll was a big factor in these prices tightening today, Biden +10 and now ahead in the RCP average in PA.
Shouldn't be long before we get state markets on here I would have thought.
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 5:47 PM BST
Joint favs now.

The state polls had a heavy Biden bias last time and I am not persuaded that they have fixed their methodology.
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 5:52 PM BST
Trump faring way better in national polling; typically slightly ahead or level, compared to be 7-10 down in most national polls in 2020

But somehow this is not reflecting in the battleground states?
Report blank April 4, 2024 6:06 PM BST
I've seen it suggested that NY and possibly FL and a few other states are skewing the national polling, the electoral college/popular vote equation might have moved against the GOP since 2020 and 2016.
Report blank April 4, 2024 6:08 PM BST
Trump still ahead as things stand but the trends are with Biden.
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 6:26 PM BST
The electoral college allocation per state has changed since 2020. Slightly favours Trump it seems to me.
Report blank April 4, 2024 6:50 PM BST
Biden averaged +29 in NY polling in 2020, now it's +12 being generous, a 17 point swing in a big state with zero change in EC outlook.

Not sure about the allocation changes, I read the GOP were trying to change how Nebraska awards EC votes to a winner takes all so they gain an extra one.
Report blank April 4, 2024 7:34 PM BST
No Labels has abandoned plans to run a ticket - WSJ (paywall).
It contacted 30 potential candidates.
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 8:02 PM BST
Not sure about the allocation changes, I read the GOP were trying to change how Nebraska awards EC votes to a winner takes all so they gain an extra one.

The Nebraska thing is different.

I was referring to states getting different amounts of elctoral college votes than 2020

2+ Texas
1+ Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon.
-1 California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia
Report Charlie April 4, 2024 8:04 PM BST

Apr 4, 2024 -- 6:06PM, blank wrote:


I've seen it suggested that NY and possibly FL and a few other states are skewing the national polling, the electoral college/popular vote equation might have moved against the GOP since 2020 and 2016.


Suggested by who? Let's have some sources not just my mate told me bollocks.

Report Escapee April 4, 2024 8:15 PM BST

Suggested by who? Let's have some sources not just my mate told me bollocks.


The amount of internet reading required to keep abreast of trends in data and pundits is enormous.
I think it a little impractical to maintain a list of all sources so as to be able to produce a reference for every thing.

Phrases like "I've seen it suggested" are ample warning that it is not being passed off as fact.
And I use a similar prefix if I am forwarding a 2nd hand opinion that I don't want to vouch for but  feel some weight should be considered.

Report blank April 4, 2024 8:19 PM BST
Thanks Tobermory, that does look like it favours the GOP.

Charlie, I'm not sure where I first read it but it doesn't matter now, I looked at the polling myself and there's something in it as laid out in my 6:50PM post. Trump is outperforming his national swing in NY by a huge margin, which can only mean he is underperforming his national swing somewhere else.
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 9:53 PM BST
I finally got to zero reds.

Position on the runners that are less than 1000 to back

533 Trump 491 Warren
534 Biden 1,387 Pritzker
401 RFKj 1,015 Ben Carson
105 Michelle 1,873 Tim Scott
1,079 Newsom 1,701 Josh Shapiro
967 Kamala 120 Phillips
35 Haley 3,063 Tulsi
629 Whitmer 731 Jamie Dimon
321 Vivek 481 Oprah
1,332 DeSantis 1,246 Noem
254 Hilary 1,064 Mark Cuban
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 10:07 PM BST
I wouldn't want to 'cash out' as I still have huge greens on 1000 shots that could be in play if there were a contested convention.

But  Trump v Biden seems almost certain, so I might try and build the low greens up so that I could then have a few hundred on those 2 without creating a red.
Report Escapee April 4, 2024 10:13 PM BST
well played Tober

Might be worth £2 on Haley @ 100 (curr 75-110) as insurance on a certain trial in 10 days not going well for one of the candidates
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 10:23 PM BST
I have a couple of pounds to back Haley@130-200

Just really so i can be £400 green on everyone and then bet that on Trump/Biden

I've always thought she is a no hoper. If Trump dropped dead tomorrow she would be about 4th fav for the nomination IMO
Report Escapee April 4, 2024 10:43 PM BST
She was the last candidate standing in the primaries so her odds might briefly go under 5 in any ensuing chaos
Report tobermory April 4, 2024 11:02 PM BST
Yeah, there would be crazy price swings on loads of candidates if Trump or Joe croaked.

My concern is Betfair would void bets on them.

You'd think a dead candidate is a loser but they suspended the market when Trump got covid in 2020
Report yak hunt April 5, 2024 8:58 AM BST
2024 Pennsylvania GE:

Joe Biden 48% (+10)
Donald Trump 38%
Someone else 13%

.
@FandMPoll
, 431 RV, 3/20-31
https://fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-april-2024/
Report yak hunt April 5, 2024 9:03 AM BST
2024 National GE:

Biden 52% (+4)
Trump 48%
.
Biden 41%
Trump 41%
Kennedy 13%
West 4%
Stein 2%

.
@MULawPoll
, 674 LV, 3/18-28
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2024/04/03/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-supreme-court-poll-march-18-28-2024-2/
Report yak hunt April 5, 2024 9:04 AM BST
2024 National GE (Shift since 2/15):

Biden 52% (+4)
Trump 48% (-4)
.
Biden 41% (+1)
Trump 41% (-2)
Kennedy 13% (-1)
West 4% (+3)
Stein 2% (+1)

.
@MULawPoll
, 674 LV, 3/18-28
Report blank April 5, 2024 12:34 PM BST
I'd probably back DeSantis first if Trump dropped dead, he is still the most popular and well known figure with the base, and probably with the hardcore MAGA subset which make up the delegates. There's a void with the GOP backup options until Trump chooses a VP. 4 relatively short Dem backup options but only Haley on the GOP side who I think is a false option, but could nonetheless be backed in in a frenzy.
Report Escapee April 5, 2024 1:06 PM BST

Yeah, there would be crazy price swings on loads of candidates if Trump or Joe croaked.

My concern is Betfair would void bets on them.

You'd think a dead candidate is a loser but they suspended the market when Trump got covid in 2020


from the rules on outright, but also same on nominees


If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.


voiding bets on a single candidate could expose some to £millions of RED and cause betfair to be landed with credit based gambling which is strictly against their license

Report dave1357 April 5, 2024 1:17 PM BST
I wouldn't imagine anyone would gaf about the credit issue, given the low esteem with which the authorities hold gamblers. Think a void would be unlikely though as even ibas would push back at that one given the rules.
Report dave1357 April 5, 2024 1:20 PM BST
also can you actually get a trading profit out before market settlement? I thought you could just get stakes out and profit was released at settlement.
Report unitedbiscuits April 5, 2024 1:22 PM BST
Of course you can.

Betfair invented cash out.
Report unitedbiscuits April 5, 2024 1:29 PM BST
/\ c 2011/\

For a two-horse race, the market is a trader's dream (alas I haven't participated yet).

Biden is now vying for favouritism: his stock has been rising since he started to criticise Israel. Is it co-incidence that Trump is now shifting his rhetoric the same way?
Report dave1357 April 5, 2024 1:50 PM BST
There are two green scenarios. Green on one (or more selections) and neutral on others. This is only going to be paid when one of the greens wins, but stake will be freed. The other scenario - green on everything, I'm not sure, I still think in horse racing profit is only released at settlement, maybe because of a non-runner possibility? Maybe it is by specific markets.
Report Jack Bauer "24" April 5, 2024 3:05 PM BST
Profit on the exchange is only released when the market is settled either in full as with most markets, or partially settled as with the Premier League for example.
Report askjack April 5, 2024 9:20 PM BST

Apr 5, 2024 -- 3:05PM, Jack Bauer "24" wrote:


Profit on the exchange is only released when the market is settled either in full as with most markets, or partially settled as with the Premier League for example.


Jack's right. The bet will be settled in full according to the rules: This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.

If you are a 'rump backer and have taken odds below 2.5, you will likely lose every penny unless you are very lucky.

However, if you have consistently placed lay bets on The 'rump...

Happy days!

To recover the stake money simply back The 'rump.

Tick Hunters 101.

Report askjack April 5, 2024 9:27 PM BST
Donald Trump
2.08
£1.00
£1.08
Ref: 342274869134
Matched: 04:04 21-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.08
£1.00
£1.08
Ref: 342274908839
Matched: 04:05 21-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.08
£2.00
£2.16
Ref: 342102367776
Matched: 22:17 18-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.08
£2.00
£2.16
Ref: 342353003698
Matched: 00:14 22-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.08
£3.00
£3.24
Ref: 342535939268
Matched: 17:47 23-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.1
£0.23
£0.25
Ref: 341984992839
Matched: 16:22 17-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.1
£2.27
£2.50
Ref: 341984992838
Matched: 16:22 17-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.12
£3.00
£3.36
Ref: 337840356249
Matched: 08:30 11-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.12
£3.23
£3.62
Ref: 337921271998
Matched: 18:32 11-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.14
£3.00
£3.42
Ref: 342831894277
Matched: 21:00 26-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.16
£5.00
£5.80
Ref: 337820500818
Matched: 21:14 10-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.18
£5.00
£5.90
Ref: 337726546653
Matched: 12:20 10-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.18
£5.00
£5.90
Ref: 337771496838
Matched: 16:41 10-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.2
£2.87
£3.44
Ref: 343002058059
Matched: 22:08 28-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.2
£3.00
£3.60
Ref: 337546555682
Matched: 18:23 08-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.22
£3.00
£3.66
Ref: 339844688506
Matched: 20:22 28-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.24
£0.44
£0.55
Ref: 336204100601
Matched: 14:08 27-Jan-24
Donald Trump
2.24
£1.47
£1.82
Ref: 343074925704
Matched: 17:12 29-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.24
£1.53
£1.90
Ref: 343074925704
Matched: 17:12 29-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.24
£2.56
£3.17
Ref: 336204100601
Matched: 14:08 27-Jan-24
Donald Trump
2.24
£3.00
£3.72
Ref: 343054992371
Matched: 15:33 29-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.24
£3.80
£4.71
Ref: 343086535019
Matched: 18:24 29-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.26
£2.00
£2.52
Ref: 343295346737
Matched: 02:08 31-Mar-24
Donald Trump
2.26
£10.00
£12.60
Ref: 343620129918
Matched: 19:14 02-Apr-24
Donald Trump
2.28
£2.73
£3.49
Ref: 337343723574
Matched: 17:33 06-Feb-24
Donald Trump
2.34
£3.00
£4.02
Ref: 343838314234
Matched: 21:00 04-Apr-24
Donald Trump
2.36
£5.00
£6.80
Ref: 343926830715
Matched: 19:01 05-Apr-24
Donald Trump
2.84
£5.00
£9.20
Ref: 325184572575
Matched: 22:50 18-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.88
£5.00
£9.40
Ref: 324369655633
Matched: 14:25 11-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.88
£5.00
£9.40
Ref: 325851127519
Matched: 19:16 23-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.9
£5.00
£9.50
Ref: 323291193842
Matched: 20:57 02-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.9
£5.77
£10.96
Ref: 323269077093
Matched: 18:02 02-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.92
£5.00
£9.60
Ref: 324143963230
Matched: 00:43 09-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.94
£5.00
£9.70
Ref: 325413183434
Matched: 20:54 20-Oct-23
Donald Trump
2.98
£5.00
£9.90
Ref: 322601420700
Matched: 02:09 28-Sep-23
Report dave1357 April 5, 2024 9:55 PM BST
Another issue preventing the settlement would be that a new candidate can be added at any time, making even greens on every other candidate, theoretical.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 6, 2024 9:41 AM BST
P Diddy has been getting a lot of press lately.
Report blank April 6, 2024 4:46 PM BST
Trump matched at 2.6 outright about 20 minutes ago, I didn't get any, I think that's the cash-out at work when someone has a big green and there's not much backing money up.
Report blank April 7, 2024 2:57 PM BST
New piece that touches on where the electoral college is relative to the popular vote.

.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/electoral-college-question-l...
Report blank April 7, 2024 2:58 PM BST
.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/electoral-college-question-l...
Report blank April 7, 2024 2:58 PM BST
.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/electoral-college-question-l...
Report blank April 7, 2024 2:58 PM BST
.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/electoral-college-question-l...
Report blank April 7, 2024 3:01 PM BST
But a two-election trend is no guarantee of future results. And there’s another school of thought about 2024 that the GOP’s Electoral College edge may not be as pronounced, as Trump has made gains with Black and Latino voters, including in states like California and New York that won’t come close to deciding the presidential election. Even slightly better margins for Trump in those big, blue states could bring the national vote and the tipping-point state vote into closer alignment.

The question, however, is how sizable that decrease might be — if there is any. It’s an important piece of information to help gauge what the national polls really mean right now, but it’s also shrouded in mystery. 

“With Trump’s improvements among Hispanic and Black voters, the pro-GOP bias may decline by 1 to 2 points — but it won’t be erased,” said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

“In other words, I think Trump could lose the popular vote by 2 points in November and still have an excellent chance of carrying Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada — which is why I view Trump as a pretty obvious favorite at the moment,” Wasserman added.
Report SamuelMertensBertens April 7, 2024 8:19 PM BST

Apr 6, 2024 -- 4:46PM, blank wrote:


Trump matched at 2.6 outright about 20 minutes ago, I didn't get any, I think that's the cash-out at work when someone has a big green and there's not much backing money up.


I've had a back at 2.4 on him for days and that didn't get matched.

Report blank April 7, 2024 9:58 PM BST
I'm sure it was swiped. I can remember searching for any breaking news and putting up offers in the 2.5's while the order book was being refilled, which didn't take long.
Report blank April 8, 2024 2:26 PM BST
Trump says abortion should be left to the states, could be a smart move to neutralise the issue.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 9, 2024 8:02 AM BST
Democrats argue that it's ok to kill unborn babies because they are not really human. It's the same argument Democrats used when they fought to keep slavery.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 9, 2024 6:15 PM BST
According to Rasmussen Biden is hemorrhaging black and Hispanic voters.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1777741979029311703
.
Report Escapee April 10, 2024 1:43 AM BST

For the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen Reports' final White House Watch survey of likely U.S. voters showed Democrat Joe Biden with a 1% lead over Republican Donald Trump, stating that "President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie."[7] Ultimately, Biden won the election by 4.5 percentage points. In 2018, Rasmussen Reports predicted that Republicans would win the generic ballot by 1 percentage point while the actual election results had Democrats winning by nearly 9 percentage points. This error of nearly 10 percentage points was the largest polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot.[8] Rasmussen pushed back against critics after their miss, saying "the midterm result was relatively poor for Democrats compared to other midterms"


If Trump was gaining the black/latino vote then he wouldn't need to use AI generated pictures of "Blacks for Trump" in his campaigns.

Report Ronaldmcdonald April 10, 2024 10:46 AM BST
Yes I am sure Trump has nothing better to do than sit there all day tweaking AI pictures.
Report edy April 10, 2024 11:02 AM BST
No long tweaking is necessarily needed. You just enter a prompt and let the AI do its magic during a few mere seconds. Not every picture is always cool, some will contain obvious errors, but then you simply don't select that one.

Escapee didn't say he generated the pictures himself anyway. Reading carefully and comprehending text is very important, mate.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 10, 2024 11:12 AM BST
Not looking good for Biden with so many black and Hispanic voters deserting. Being the incumbent should be a huge advantage, but not with his record of bumbling from one disaster to another, and the economy.
Report Culvin April 10, 2024 11:44 AM BST
I'll be quids in if either Trump or Biden or both , pop their clogs .
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 10, 2024 11:45 AM BST
RFK Jr is very bad for Biden. The votes for Jill Stein in 2016 were more than the margin Trump won by in the swing states. When there's another choice people don't have to hold their nose and vote for Biden.
Report timbuctooth April 10, 2024 4:01 PM BST
CHORTLE at the chumps trusting AI!!! It's programmed by evil leftie globalists, so no surprise that Gemini, when asked for a picture of the Founding Fathers, (Washington, Jefferson, Franklin and co.), showed them all as being black! And German Nazi officers as black men and Asian women!!!

https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/21/24079371/google-ai-gemini-generative-inac...
Report edy April 10, 2024 4:16 PM BST
Wait! Is it meant to be an endorsement and honour to be shown as Nazi officers?
Report edy April 10, 2024 4:22 PM BST
What I discovered in my own dabbling with AI image generation, although primarily Dall-E and not Gemini, was that Scots all have fabulous beards and carry their bagpipes with them to most locations. Also, if you describe a man as moderately fit, they still look a surefire winning candidate for both Mister Universe and Mister Olympia.
Report edy April 10, 2024 4:24 PM BST
Oh, and baby bunnies sometimes have four ears to engage helicopter mode.
Report edy April 10, 2024 4:25 PM BST
I think on that one the AI simply cannot decide if baby bunnies with floppy ears or baby bunnies with upright ears are more adorable, so it simply gives them both.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 10, 2024 5:10 PM BST
Many AI image generators don't understand how hands work so they have disconnected hands or the wrong number of fingers.
Report askjack April 10, 2024 6:57 PM BST
The 'rump is no longer the favourite on Betfair in the win market! Biden can retire and hand over to Harris that's my bet.
Report tobermory April 11, 2024 12:50 AM BST
If Harris took over Trump would be straight to 1.6, so she won't be, unless Biden drops dead.
Report tobermory April 11, 2024 12:54 AM BST
Trump has made gains with Black and Latino voters, including in states like California and New York that won’t come close to deciding the presidential election

I could see why Trump would gain more from minorities in NY and California, as Woke loons have done more damage there.

But highly unlikely he makes big minority gains there and none at all in the battleground states.

And we are talking about states he lost by 1% or less, so he doesn't need much of a swing.
Report yak hunt April 11, 2024 7:36 AM BST
Obviously, the GOP voters who will not vote for him under any circumstances, post January 6th, are likely to be the deciding factor.
Report yak hunt April 11, 2024 7:54 AM BST
2024 North Carolina GE:

Trump 48% (+2)
Biden 46%
.
Trump 41% (+3)
Biden 38%
Kennedy 12%
West 3%
Stein 3%

.
@QuinnipiacPoll
, 1,401 RV, 4/4-8
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3895
Report yak hunt April 11, 2024 8:04 AM BST
Trump was 10-14 points ahead in some North Carolina polls only a couple of months ago.
Report Escapee April 11, 2024 12:05 PM BST
Could RFK cause a contingent election?

where no candidate gets a majority of electoral college votes, (not happened since 1837) and the president is chosen by congress.
Report yak hunt April 11, 2024 5:14 PM BST
No.
Report blank April 11, 2024 5:21 PM BST
The expectation is that RFK's polling share will be squeezed, he has already dropped from 14% to 9% over the last 6 months. Under 5% is trading at 1.27-1.48 on smarkets.

In other independent news, Cornel West names BLM activist Melina Abdullah as his running mate.
Report Escapee April 12, 2024 2:24 AM BST
here's a weather forecast for the next few days

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GK4TENhWYAAftXD?format=jpg&name=900x900
.

Laugh
Report blank April 12, 2024 2:29 PM BST
hehe. Not much money up so maybe backers are waiting for the storm to pass
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 12, 2024 6:47 PM BST
Trump back in the lead again - it's neck and neck and they're not messing about this time!!!!
Report yak hunt April 12, 2024 8:40 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
3h
Trump and Biden are tied nationally.

First time since July that Trump has not led.

Presidential Election VI (6-7 April):

Donald Trump: 41% (-3)
Joe Biden: 41% (+1)
Robert Kennedy Jr.: 9% (+2)
Other: 2% (–)
Report dave1357 April 15, 2024 7:52 PM BST
never has there been such a grifter in the entire history of grifting

Donald Trump’s social media app suffered a $700m (£562m) hit on Monday after its parent company issued new shares in a bid to raise cash.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-truth-social-suffers-700m-184142130.html
.
Report casemoney April 15, 2024 8:18 PM BST
What a state this world is in , any left of Center Including Demented Lunatics Fit the Bill Laugh

I wonder what History will make of JOE if he gets another Term Laugh

Neither of them should be running for POTUS  IMO
Report casemoney April 15, 2024 8:21 PM BST
De santis should be the REP , and TBH you could dig some one up to Replace JOE Laugh
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 15, 2024 9:21 PM BST
I am leftie and I like saying grift!!!
Report LoyalHoncho April 15, 2024 11:18 PM BST
case, come on.  Suggesting digging someone up" seems unseemly, bearing in mind the old fart could quite easily be dug in himself at any day in the run up to voting day.

Serious question:  What would happen if either or both passed away between now and the election?
Report lfc1971 April 15, 2024 11:48 PM BST
The most danger is Biden in power and not dying
Report dave1357 April 16, 2024 8:13 AM BST
trump media auditors


In January 2022, Trump Media instead turned to a smaller accounting firm to conduct the audit, BF Borgers, which has less than stellar record with regulators. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board said it identified multiple deficiencies in every audit it had reviewed from BF Borgers in the past two years, per Bloomberg.

BF Borgers was also removed from the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants' peer review program in November "because the firm was found to be so seriously deficient in its performance that education and remedial, corrective actions are not adequate."


https://www.businessinsider.com/accounting-firm-ditched-truth-social-after-less-than-a-year-2024-4
.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 16, 2024 4:37 PM BST
It's an ingenious way to collect campaign contributions with no upper limits for big donors. Orange man loophole.
Report yak hunt April 16, 2024 5:21 PM BST
2 hours ago — Trump Media shares were down 8.5% at $24.335 in early trading.
Report Ronaldmcdonald April 16, 2024 5:37 PM BST
Not a good investment for the paper handed.
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