2024 USA Presidential Election

If you fall off yer bike get straight back on it.. Lol.


If you make an erse of yer self again, keep digging

this is getting stupider though with his favourability ratings, his age, his huge speaking blunders the white house has to continually walk back, his inability to talk to the media and free from teleprompters, his gaffe's which now number in the thousands probably, his lack of balance and falling over several times, the state of the US atm how on earth do they expect him to run for re-election.. It just seems completely insane to me. at least with trump you can see why his supporters supported him but with biden?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685
.

This is the market for you. Let us know your bets please.

Biden isn't trump

That's why he won, fair and square

and why the crybabies were invading the Capitol.

Not really difficult to see, for most folk, untainted
by devotion to trumpism.

what? I'm talking about biden not trump

are you a "but trumpor" ?

Jun 19, 2022 -- 12:54PM, politicspunter wrote:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685.This is the market for you. Let us know your bets please.

already did but i guess you forgot, it's still a long way out ofc so hard to go very big but i'm laying biden. the trajectory of his presidency atm does not lend itself to running again imo. could be wrong ofc but that's part of the game. his age and his senile nature is a big reason too. what are you guys betting on? not at hat I expect some of you to answer me in good faith haha

on the other hand it seems hard to find an alternative for the dems that has a shot

A but trump or, lol

You brought up trump.

Biden is a finesse against trump running.

Jun 19, 2022 -- 2:00PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

A but trump or, lolYou brought up trump.Biden is a finesse against trump running.

i meant about the people invaded the capital comment :P and this wouldn't be the first time i talk about biden and you bring up a "but trump did this" argument haha.

completely agree with you about biden though it seems like they might be waiting to get clarification on whether trump will run or not before they dig biden into an even deeper hole.

it seems like they might be waiting to get clarification on whether trump will run or not before they dig biden into an even deeper hole.

what bearing do you think trump has on whether biden runs?

Jun 19, 2022 -- 1:40PM, razz wrote:

Jun 19, 2022 -- 12:54PM, politicspunter wrote:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685.This is the market for you. Let us know your bets please.already did but i guess you forgot, it's still a long way out ofc so hard to go very big but i'm laying biden. the trajectory of his presidency atm does not lend itself to running again imo. could be wrong ofc but that's part of the game. his age and his senile nature is a big reason too. what are you guys betting on? not at hat I expect some of you to answer me in good faith haha

I had a score on Kamala Harris outright at 17.0 a few days ago, amongst others.

always answer in good faith.

Pointless not to.


I know what folks biases are and can read between lines.

Biden and Harris are useless, but they are good value right now. Especially Biden @6.8

Biden's doddering is just the same as it was in 2019, not getting worse. Of course it is possible he may rapidly decline, but the time for that to happen is passing, so his price should be shortening each month, not getting bigger.

That you can dutch Biden/Harris at about 4/1 when they are the incumbent ticket is amazing IMO.

what bearing do you think trump has on whether biden runs?

Probably that the concern of having a president in his 80s is diminished when the alternative is 78.

Biden is no older than Trump than he was in 2020 - if it's Biden vs Trump then it's a second term for Joe. Personally I don't think Trump will run and certainly not if the opponent is Biden.

Biden v Trump likely would be close again, but Biden will have a record to defend and it's not likely to be a good one.

Jun 19, 2022 -- 5:43PM, tobermory wrote:

Biden and Harris are useless, but they are good value right now. Especially Biden @6.8Biden's doddering is just the same as it was in 2019, not getting worse. Of course it is possible he may rapidly decline, but the time for that to happen is passing, so his price should be shortening each month, not getting bigger.That you can dutch Biden/Harris at about 4/1 when they are the incumbent ticket is amazing IMO.

This incumbency factor appears to be massively undervalued to many folks. If nothing at all changes on the Democratic side, then it's Biden/Harris again. Their odds are huge considering there is a very strong possibility of one of them being the Democrat candidate.

Outright odds in particular.

Jun 19, 2022 -- 5:59PM, tobermory wrote:

Biden v Trump likely would be close again, but Biden will have a record to defend and it's not likely to be a good one.

The huge problem Trump has is that a large chunk of the Republican electorate do not support him or his "Big Lie" strategy that he demands his supporters adopt. The odds on Trump for both Republican nominee and outright have been steadily drifting in USA markets because folks just can't see him winning with such a small core support. His Big Lie candidates were crushed in recent primaries, particularly in the key battleground state of Georgia.

USA - Presidential Election 2024 -- Election Winner

90 Runners            £1,078,694 Matched

			104.8%		92.9%
Donald Trump	3.8	3.85	3.9		4	4.1	4.2	£434,846
	£583	£493	£354		£196	£254	£600
Joe Biden	6.4	6.6	6.8		7	7.2	7.4	£244,370
	£221	£423	£174		£22	£31	£65
Ron DeSantis	5.2	5.8	5.9		6	6.2	6.4	£75,669
	£6	£126	£30		£100	£5	£15
Kamala Harris	16	16.5	17		18	18.5	19	£103,101
	£109	£17	£20		£73	£13	£78
Mike Pence	15.5	16	16.5		17	17.5	18.5	£47,032
	£39	£15	£136		£1	£33	£26
Nikki Haley	29	30	32		40	42	44	£23,740
	£28	£6	£15		£5	£2	£26
Pete Buttigieg	30	32	34		36	38	40	£14,186
	£5	£26	£6		£2	£10	£172
Michelle Obama	46	50	55		75	95	100	£8,028
	£2	£101	£3		£10	£8	£68
Mike Pompeo	60	65	70		80	90	95	£8,520
	£1	£16	£1		£14	£4	£2
Elizabeth Warren	50	55	60		65	70	75	£9,953
	£4	£5	£11		£5	£3	£4
Hillary Clinton	55	70	75		120	190	280	£10,153
	£19	£25	£2		£3	£2	£2
Dwayne Johnson	70	75	80		85	90	95	£13,168
	£83	£6	£7		£20	£22	£10
Tom Cotton	85	90	95		130	140	150	£3,265
	£12	£2	£4		£3	£9	£11
Gavin Newsom	30	55	60		90	95	100	£1,635
	£11	£9	£1		£6	£3	£2
plus 76 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Jun 19, 2022 -- 7:44PM, politicspunter wrote:

Jun 19, 2022 --  5:59PM, tobermory wrote:Biden v Trump likely would be close again, but Biden will have a record to defend and it's not likely to be a good one.The huge problem Trump has is that a large chunk of the Republican electorate do not support him or his "Big Lie" strategy that he demands his supporters adopt. The odds on Trump for both Republican nominee and outright have been steadily drifting in USA markets because folks just can't see him winning with such a small core support. His Big Lie candidates were crushed in recent primaries, particularly in the key battleground state of Georgia.

it's taken a long time for people to realise this considering it became pretty obvious that this was a big hurdle for him last election that he didn't try to address, he made very little attempt to attract voters outside of his core base. makes me wonder why predictit is drifting now. It could easily be manipulated by rivals on that market as we have seen before.

For what reason?

same as why bloomberg did it for example

Which was?

Jun 19, 2022 -- 8:29PM, politicspunter wrote:

Which was?

to make it seem like he had a greater chance of winning than he actually did. not saying this is the case but it doesn't take an awful lot of money to move the odds of the market this far out.

Betting odds are irrelevant. It's opinion polls that count.

Jun 19, 2022 -- 9:43PM, politicspunter wrote:

Betting odds are irrelevant. It's opinion polls that count.

not for us :)

but yeah this far out they odds aren't nearly as meaningful as in a year from now

razz what bearing do you think trump has on whether biden runs?

Jun 19, 2022 -- 9:46PM, razz wrote:

Jun 19, 2022 -- 9:43PM, politicspunter wrote:Betting odds are irrelevant. It's opinion polls that count.not for us :)

I never look at the odds until I have studied opinion polls, then I form my own tissue prices. If the actual betting market has a bet I consider value, I back/lay it accordingly.

Opinion polls are not much of a guide this far out.

By this stage in the 2008 race Giulliani had the nomination wrapped up and Obama was a no hoper.

Polls at this point are massively influenced by name recognition. So you have Pence up there.

Name recognition is irrelevant once it starts for real.

Yes, fair comment.

Jun 19, 2022 -- 10:07PM, politicspunter wrote:

Jun 19, 2022 -- 9:46PM, razz wrote:Jun 19, 2022 -- 9:43PM, politicspunter wrote:Betting odds are irrelevant. It's opinion polls that count.not for us :)I never look at the odds until I have studied opinion polls, then I form my own tissue prices. If the actual betting market has a bet I consider value, I back/lay it accordingly.

common tactic for sports ofc, but not really well suited to this type of market atm especially.

doesn't stop manipulation happening though, and I think the odds are very relevant when you consider the difference between predictit and non US exchanges seeing as we are betting on it anyway, it's indicative of some large difference of opinion or it's manipulation.

Personally, I think the Predictit prices are more accurate than on here. I have always felt that Trump would struggle to win in 2024 and his price in the UK is very short indeed, all things considered. De Santis, Biden and Harris prices are far too big here.

Majority of Americans say Trump should be criminally charged for role in Jan. 6 Capitol riot, new poll shows
https://news.yahoo.com/majority-americans-trump-criminally-charged-145242490.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
.

I am beginning to wonder if Trump is certain to beat DeSantis if they decide to both run. The GOP and their donors have to ask themselves who realistically can win? DeSantis certainly could but it's much less likely Trump could. Then of course there are a few candidates who could run irrespective of who else does. Candidates like Christie, Pence and Cotton for example. Now Trump would almost certainly beat them but he would be damaged in a long campaign, DeSantis less so and likely to gain momentum through it.
As things develop in GOP land, what impact are declarations of intent/dropping out going to have on the outright market? A safe strategy is, as has been suggested up thread, simply to dutch Biden (currently 7.0) and Harris (17.0) and see what develops.

2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll:

DeSantis 39%
Trump 37%
Pence 9%
Haley 6%
Cruz 1%
Noem 1%
Pompeo 1%
Cotton 0%
R. Scott 0%
T. Scott 0%

@UNHSurveyCenter
~ 318 LV ~ 6/16-6/20
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/697/

2024 New Hampshire General Election Poll:

DeSantis 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
.
Biden 50% (+7)
Trump 43%

@UNHSurveyCenter
~ 845 LV ~ 6/16-6/20
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/697/

The Congressional inquiry into Jan 6th isn't going well for Trump.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61918350
.

"US government lawyers threatened to quit en masse as then-President Donald Trump hounded them almost daily to help overturn his 2020 election defeat, a congressional inquiry has heard.

Justice department officials said they told Mr Trump there was zero evidence for his claims of mass voter fraud.

The attorneys also testified that the president's plan to reverse his loss in key states was "a murder-suicide pact". "

He was into evens to be the Rep Nominee before these hearing started.

USA - Presidential Election 2024 -- Republican Nominee

50 Runners            £289,761 Matched

			106.4%		95.9%
Donald Trump	2.44	2.5	2.52		2.54	2.56	2.58	£221,861
	£87	£175	£4		£13	£35	£2
Ron DeSantis	3.25	3.3	3.35		3.45	3.55	3.65	£21,977
	£2	£11	£2		£401	£101	£121
Nikki Haley	16	16.5	17		19	19.5	20	£7,920
	£6	£3	£5		£5	£18	£20
Mike Pence	10	10.5	11		11.5	12	12.5	£11,049
	£20	£115	£10		£195	£26	£10
Mike Pompeo	38	40	42		44	46	48	£2,861
	£2	£4	£5		£17	£4	£4
Tucker Carlson	75	85	90		100	110	120	£3,846
	£2	£5	£10		£2	£2	£2
Ted Cruz	50	55	60		280	290	480	£3,401
	£9	£10	£2		£2	£1	£2
Tom Cotton	40	44	46		60	65	70	£1,976
	£10	£4	£4		£11	£40	£5
Kristi Noem	46	48	50		55	470	490	£3,164
	£15	£24	£1		£102	£2	£3
Tim Scott	55	60	65		80	85	90	£1,512
	£2	£8	£4		£13	£215	£3
plus 40 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

DeSantis and Trump not far off from flipping. Maybe Trump backers are holding off until after the hearings.
Trump has a rally Saturday night so he might get some support in the market over the weekend.

Jun 19, 2022 -- 9:57PM, A_T wrote:

razz what bearing do you think trump has on whether biden runs?

I don't think that much, as I don't think he'll run regardless but that's kind of what appearances look like atm to be fair

seems to me the GOP would be mad to not try and stop trump running again considering how weak the dems look atm and how they don't have any strong or even mediocre candidates with a high enough profile and support from the dnc to win. de santis odds are going to get shorter I'm pretty sure

I can't see Desantis running unless Trump does not.

If he has to battle Trump for the nomination, then, even if he wins it, you may well see Trump as 3rd party candidate, which would mean Desantis could not win the election.

Desantis is better off waiting for 2028.

Will the Christian extremists be voted out at state level now that they are turning the screw on oppressing women?

The GOP will be 100% MAGA within 5 years
Just need to get rid of old fossils

The extremists will turn their fire
on contraception, gay rights, and same sex marriage.

As written in opinion pieces from judges in the overturning
of Wade v roe.

Jun 24, 2022 -- 4:02PM, Timber wrote:

The GOP will be 100% MAGA within 5 yearsJust need to get rid of old fossils

Will need a new nickname once the inmates have taken it over completely.

Ultra DARK MAGA

If he has to battle Trump for the nomination, then, even if he wins it, you may well see Trump as 3rd party candidate

absolutely no way Trump will stand without the GOP ticket - very unlikely to stand in any case

UDM is gonna make elections obsolete.

seems to me the GOP would be mad to not try and stop trump running again

not much they can do to stop him - they hate him as he's not really a republican at all but they appease him as he can cause so much damage

Is this Supreme Court Ruling on abortion change things at all?

It's only in the UK that Trump is favourite to win both the GOP nomination and the outright market. I am increasingly beginning to believe that DeSantis may run regardless of whether Trump does. If Trump doesn't run, DeSantis looks certain to win, going by current polling. If Trump and DeSantis both decide not to run, it's a very open market.

Jun 24, 2022 -- 5:32PM, frog1000 wrote:

Is this Supreme Court Ruling on abortion change things at all?

Yes.

Jun 24, 2022 -- 3:34PM, razz wrote:

seems to me the GOP would be mad to not try and stop trump running again considering how weak the dems look atm and how they don't have any strong or even mediocre candidates with a high enough profile and support from the dnc to win. de santis odds are going to get shorter I'm pretty sure

I agree. DeSantis should be favourite.

I'm with razz, I think the GOP has so much to lose if Trump get's the Rep nomination and runs.
Where as if GOP fields a 60yo candidate against 81yo Biden, it would be almost a shoe in for them.



My money is already betting against Trump winning the Rep nomination.


Press conference in a garden centre claiming non existent evidence of a stolen election?

what a muppet

Rake America Great Again.

DeSantis will be favourite by midnight at this rate.

But I don't agree he should be.

If Trump stands and wins the GOP nomination, the election in 2024 simply becomes a referendum on Trump again. He lost last time and is in a far worse position this time.

Why would he be in a worse position?

Biden will have lost millions of his 2020 vote already by now, and will struggle to get them back onboard.

Trump will be in a worse position because moderate Republicans and independents are much less likely to vote for him, under any circumstances. Democrats definitely won't.

Why?

'January 6th' is only a big deal to Democrats and people who hated Trump before it happened.

It's a big deal to moderates and independents.

Candidates like Glenn Youngkin, Kemp and Raffensberger have already proved that they can win, and win easily, against Trump backed big lie picks.

Sorry, Youngkin simply won without the backing of Trump.

tobermory

24 Jun 22 19:32
Why?

'January 6th' is only a big deal to Democrats and people who hated Trump before it happened.

Tobemory, it was a coup, an attempt to install a dictatorship.

You (presumably) grew up in reasonably free democracy and yet you seem to want to live in a dictatorship.


I don't get it, I really don't.

Fascists

Possible flip incoming Presidential election.

Biden drifted a bit.

Republicans come in a couple of ticks.

Who do people think will be the dems choice. Both Biden and Harris been on the drift for a while and these court ruling may work against them bringing out extremists.

Any Democrat drift is probably directly related to DeSantis price shortening. Any Democrat will probably beat Trump now but DeSantis is different.

'It was a coup'

Only left wing people think this.

It was a bunch of unarmed people trespassing. The people that broke in weren't even at the Trump rally, as they were told it was over capacity.

There was never the remotest possibility of anything other than the election result being confirmed.

If not Biden or Harris then Newsom most likely.

He has the funding machine to stay in the race until it turns his way. Other candidates would need big success immediately or they would be crushed financially.

It was a bunch of unarmed people trespassing  The first mob that Turned up should never ever Got in , Incredible they did TBH

"It was a bunch of unarmed people trespassing."

I'm guessing you don't know about many of the details of what went on in the corridors of power, All the duplicate electors, who signed what orders etc.

the "mob" attack on the Capitol is a fraction the complete story, a fraction of list of players and actions involved.


probably too complicated for you anyway.

G'luck.

the coup had failed before the mob entered the capitol

Watched 4 hours at the Capitol dreadful scenes TBH ,security were totally unprepared for the Original  mob, How they managed to keep 2nd mob out was some effort tbh ,Lady was shot Dead going through a Broken window Posed no threat tbh ..

Jun 24, 2022 -- 9:34PM, casemoney wrote:

Watched 4 hours at the Capitol dreadful scenes TBH ,security were totally unprepared for the Original

police let them in, agent provocateurs were involved, there obviously was not enough police presence there despite them knowing there was going to be a ton of protestors there, there was no excuse for that and the other option stands there pretty stark as to why it was so under-policed.

Jun 24, 2022 -- 6:54PM, politicspunter wrote:

If Trump stands and wins the GOP nomination, the election in 2024 simply becomes a referendum on Trump again. He lost last time and is in a far worse position this time.

The thing is I only see trump running for the nominee if he really believes he can win outright, im not sure he want's to run again knowing he very likely could lose again, his ego seems that important to him.

And I think he might be mainly interested in running only if it's biden running opposite so he can get revenge

Biden will beat Trump.

DeSantis odds to win Republican nominee..

UK 3.05
USA 2.33

DeSantis odds to win Presidential election..

UK 4.9
USA 2.94

Trump odds to win Republican nominee..

UK 2.64
USA 2.94

Trump odds to win Presidential election..

UK 4.6
USA 3.57

Jun 25, 2022 -- 4:53AM, razz wrote:

police let them in, agent provocateurs were involved, there obviously was not enough police presence there despite them knowing there was going to be a ton of protestors there, there was no excuse for that and the other option stands there pretty stark as to why it was so under-policed.

Nancy Pelosi made sure there would be limited police
She effectively used  the house & senate as bait
All expendable, pure evil witch

I think he might be mainly interested in running only if it's biden running opposite so he can get revenge

the "revenge" angle doesn't apply because trump claims he won in 2020 anyway.

no way trump would risk another beating from biden - only way trump runs is if biden doesn't

pretty stark as to why it was so under-policed.

why do you believe it was under-policed?

Jun 25, 2022 -- 8:51AM, A_T wrote:

I think he might be mainly interested in running only if it's biden running opposite so he can get revenge the "revenge" angle doesn't apply because trump claims he won in 2020 anyway.no way trump would risk another beating from biden - only way trump runs is if biden doesn't

Fair point.

Jun 25, 2022 -- 8:51AM, A_T wrote:

I think he might be mainly interested in running only if it's biden running opposite so he can get revenge the "revenge" angle doesn't apply because trump claims he won in 2020 anyway.no way trump would risk another beating from biden - only way trump runs is if biden doesn't

I am struggling to think of any Democrat candidate that Trump would beat.

2024 National Dem Primary Poll, Without Biden:

M. Obama 19%
Harris 13%
Buttigieg 8%
Clinton 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 7%
Abrams 6%
O'Rourke 4%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Newsom 3%
Winfrey/McConaughey/Manchin 2%
Adams/Kaine/Patrick/Cuomo 1%
Murphy/Gillibrand/Hickenlooper/Steyer 0%

McLaughlin

M. Obama 19%
Harris 13%
Buttigieg 8%
Clinton 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 7%
Abrams 6%
O'Rourke 4%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Newsom 3%

All completely ghastly characters, absolutely despised by most

Most Republicans perhaps.

by most right-wing bigots

there's a lot of decent republicans - maybe about a third of them?

Jun 25, 2022 -- 10:57AM, A_T wrote:

there's a lot of decent republicans - maybe about a third of them?

Difficult right now to get an exact figure because of the current ongoing loss of support for Trump.

2024 National Republican Primary Poll:

Trump 59%
DeSantis 15%
Pence 7%
Romney 4%
Owens 3%
Rubio 2%
Abbott 1%
Cotton 1%
Kasich 1%
T. Scott 1%
Hogan 1%
Cheney 1%
Bolton 0%

McLaughlin & Associates ~ 436 LV ~ 6/17-6/22
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/National-Monthly-June-2022-RELEASE.pdf

2024 National Dem Primary Poll:

Biden 23%
M. Obama 18%
Ocasio-Cortez 6%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 5%
Abrams 5%
Clinton 5%
O'Rourke 4%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Winfrey 2%
Newsom 2%

McConaughey/Manchin/Cuomo/Murphy/Kaine/Adams 1%

Hickenlooper/Patrick/Gillibrand/Steyer 0%

McLaughlin

2024 National Republican Primary Poll, Without Trump:

DeSantis 32%
Trump Jr. 17%
Pence 12%
Owens 4%
Cruz 4%
Rubio 3%
Pompeo 3%
Haley 3%
Romney 3%
T. Scott 2%
Abbott 2%
Cotton 1%
R. Scott 1%
Noem 1%
Kasich 1%
Cheney 1%
Hogan 1%
Bolton 0%

McLaughlin & Associates ~ 436 LV

DeSantis clear favourite in these non Trump polls but Pence has been a very vocal advocate of a national ban on abortion. Staunch supporters of the recent Roe-Wade decision are likely to be in his camp.