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politicspunter
11 Nov 20 14:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 40,431 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Multiple markets up now from various firms on 2024 President plus Democratic and Republican candidates.
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Report tobermory June 30, 2022 10:11 PM BST
politicspunter,

he died of AIDS in the mid 80s
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 12:55 AM BST
my position on this

279 De Santis 487 AOC
124 Trump 357 Ted
365 Biden 377 Tucker
198 Kamala 52 Bernie
340 Pence 367 Eric Adams
471 Haley 477 Ivanka
392 Buttigieg 5,305 Abbott
444 Michelle O 267 Crenshaw
1,416 Newsom 7,384 Paul Ryan
49 Hilary 257 Rand Paul
407 Warren 407 Oprah
627 The Rock 417 Beto O'Rourke
52 Pompeo 367 Ben Carson
327 Tom Cotton 487 Liz Cheney
387 Bloomberg 728 Sherrod Brown
367 Klobuchar 72 Trump Jnr
1,243 Youngkin 3,198 Romney
1,003 Noem 27 the rest
497 Tulsi
||
Report Escapee July 1, 2022 1:40 AM BST
Interesting book Tobermory

We've got differing opinions on a few candidates, So take my views with a pinch of salt.

I think you could squeeze another £15-20 of value by laying Hilary & Trump Jnr out to your current max red of 627, Both have about 1 million to 1 chance IMHO.
Report Escapee July 1, 2022 1:49 AM BST
I've been focusing on the Rep nominee market as I can't get my head around the possibility / probabilities of Biden standing again at 81 years old. But I think the Reps just can't afford to run with an 80 year old trump either and there lies the value.

I'd welcome your critiques


USA - Presidential Election 2024 -- Republican Nominee        
50 Runners            £324,381 Matched   



                  105.3%   97%             
-£728.47 Donald Trump    2.64 2.66 2.68   2.72   2.74   2.76   £245,759
        £39 £39 £385     £20 £49 £25  
£444.6 Ron DeSantis    2.76 2.8 2.82   2.86   2.88   2.9   £30,029
        £1 £108 £3     £12 £33 £804  
£444.6 Nikki Haley    19 19.5 20   21   22   28   £8,120
        £19 £29 £1     £3 £7 £2  
£564.6 Mike Pence    11.5 12 12.5   13   13.5   14   £12,612
        £15 £31 £13     £5 £2 £20  
£444.6 Mike Pompeo    32 34 38   42   44   46   £3,007
        £57 £59 £3     £5 £5 £4  
-£724.4 Tucker Carlson    150 160 170   240   250   470   £3,868
        £2 £1 £1     £2 £3 £3  
£444.6 Ted Cruz    85 90 100   150   160   190   £3,457
        £5 £1 £1     £1 £10 £3  
£444.6 Josh Hawley    100 110 150   220   230   240   £1,552
        £8 £2 £3     £3 £2 £7  
£444.6 Tom Cotton    44 46 48   50   55   60   £2,076
        £4 £10 £8     £13 £2 £2  
£674.6 Kristi Noem    50 55 60   70   80   120   £3,450
        £20 £1 £9     £4 £1 £12  
£444.6 Tim Scott    60 65 70   80   85   140   £1,570
        £2 £2 £15     £40 £216 £2  
-£722.6 Ivanka Trump    100 140 150   270   280   290   £1,889
        £3 £2 £4     £2 £2 £2  
£444.6 Ben Sasse    250 260 310   920   930   960   £131
        £7 £2 £7     £2 £1 £2  
£444.6 Rick Scott    260 270 280   870   880   890   £254
        £2 £2 £1     £2 £4 £3  
£444.6 Marco Rubio    110 280 310   630   790   800   £734
        £10 £2 £5     £3 £2 £3  
-£738.5 Donald Trump Jr.    200 210 230   280   290   300   £975
        £2 £2 £1     £3 £2 £2  
£444.6 Mitt Romney    140 150 160   280   290   300   £697
        £3 £3 £4     £2 £1 £4  
£444.6 Dan Crenshaw    300 310 330   630   640   670   £268
        £2 £1 £1     £2 £9 £2  
£2,580.8 Paul Ryan    140 150 170   240   250   1000   £387
        £3 £4 £2     £2 £3 £6  
£444.6 Kanye West    380 450 500   890   900   920   £176
        £4 £5 £1     £1 £2 £2  
£444.6 Ben Carson    120 130 230   340   350   480   £936
        £5 £2 £7     £2 £7 £2  
£444.6 Chris Christie    150 160 170   360   370   890   £337
        £5 £3 £2     £5 £6 £2  
£444.6 Sarah Huckabee Sanders    270 640 1000   -   -   -   £19
        £2 £2 £5              
£1,491.3 Liz Cheney    200 220 230   250   260   270   £290
        £7 £2 £5     £6 £13 £4  
£1,499.3 Greg Abbott    200 210 220   290   300   310   £231
        £2 £4 £1     £4 £3 £2  
£444.6 John Kasich    460 620 630   -   -   -   £54
        £2 £1 £2              
£444.6 Evan McMullin    340 350 1000   -   -   -   £25
        £2 £2 £1              
£444.6 Condoleezza Rice    290 300 1000   -   -   -   £26
        £1 £2 £6              
£444.6 Lisa Murkowski    550 570 700   -   -   -   £27
        £3 £1 £1              
£444.6 Rand Paul    360 370 380   750   760   790   £310
        £2 £4 £3     £2 £2 £2  
£444.6 Jared Kushner    760 770 1000   -   -   -   £47
        £1 £2 £4              
£444.6 Jeb Bush    680 810 860   1000   -   -   £129
        £2 £3 £2     £4        
£444.6 Joni Ernst    280 300 880   -   -   -   £27
        £1 £2 £5              
£444.6 Ben Shapiro    290 840 850   1000   -   -   £75
        £2 £5 £2     £3        
£444.6 Matt Gaetz    250 260 1000   -   -   -   £263
        £2 £4 £9              
£444.6 Tom Brady    280 350 360   700   890   900   £76
        £3 £2 £5     £8 £2 £2  
£444.6 Jim Jordan    830 890 1000   -   -   -   £113
        £2 £2 £1              
£444.6 Devin Nunes    340 760 1000   -   -   -   £17
        £3 £4 £4              
£444.6 Lindsay Graham    820 830 1000   -   -   -   £21
        £2 £2 £3              
£444.6 Bobby Jindal    330 910 1000   -   -   -   £13
        £3 £2 £7              
£444.6 James Mattis    320 350 1000   -   -   -   £13
        £6 £2 £8              
£444.6 Rick Perry    530 620 630   1000   -   -   £19
        £3 £1 £2     £2        
£444.6 Rob Portman    810 820 830   -   -   -   £34
        £2 £2 £3              
£444.6 Orrin Hatch    330 350 1000   -   -   -   £19
        £5 £2 £12              
£444.6 Susan Collins    330 430 1000   -   -   -   £9
        £6 £2 £8              
£444.6 Steve Bannon    410 420 1000   -   -   -   £27
        £2 £3 £18              
£444.6 Mitch McConnell    820 830 1000   -   -   -   £16
        £2 £2 £5              
£444.6 Eric Trump    730 740 1000   -   -   -   £40
        £1 £2 £24              
£444.6 Winsome Sears    500 510 1000   -   -   -   £15
        £2 £2 £8              
£1,404.6 Larry Hogan    100 110 160   490   500   790   £138
        £1 £2 £11     £2 £2 £2  
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 8:34 AM BST
Here are the ones on that Republican nominee market who don't count- Tucker Carlson, Josh Hawley, Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Junior, Mitt Romney, Kanye West, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Liz Cheney, Condoleeza Rice, Lisa Murkowski, Jared Kushner, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, Susan Collins, Steve Bannon, Mitch McConnell, Eric Trump. Those are the names I recognise, there are probably a few others listed that are in the no hoper category.
Report Escapee July 1, 2022 11:11 AM BST
Thanks PP, I've laid those in your list that are < 1,000 so all my reds are circa £700.

Squeezed another £19 onto my greens with out increasing my overall market liability
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 11:37 AM BST
politicspunter • June 30, 2022 8:38 PM BST
DeSantis down to 4.3 on here on the outright market, Trump out to 4.9. Quite a gap in a short time.

Now 4.2 and 5.0.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 5:50 PM BST
De Santis now being cut to 3.75 in the outright market with some bookies. 5.0 Trump.
Report Escapee July 1, 2022 6:09 PM BST
What was De Santis' stance on "stolen election" ?

Did he voice much an opinion on it either way? ( I thought he was a Trump fan boy/prodigy )

He's at 2.7 in the Rep Nominee market and I'm pondering laying him as 2.7 feel quite short with 2 years still to go
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 6:11 PM BST
The only recent thing that I know for certain is that he has not requested any sort of endorsement from Trump. That suggests to me he is running, Trump or not.
Report razz July 1, 2022 6:23 PM BST
his social media game is strong, that alone feels like he is going to run, he's been making waves a lot and his anti mandate talk for vaccines and masks have proved to be more and more popular.
Report razz July 1, 2022 6:24 PM BST
and he is not a fossil...
Report A_T July 1, 2022 6:24 PM BST
What was De Santis' stance on "stolen election" ?

so far he's dodged the question
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 7:02 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 6:24PM, A_T wrote:


What was De Santis' stance on "stolen election" ?so far he's dodged the question


Very wise.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 1, 2022 7:04 PM BST
He's got his hands full deciding on state abortion
Law, without dealing with hot potato of stop the steal.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 7:09 PM BST
Latest outright prices in American markets...

DeSantis 3.03
Biden 4.55
Trump 4.55
Harris 12.5
Buttigieg 16.7
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 9:36 PM BST
Two Secret Service Sources Corroborate Hutchinson Testimony About Trump Demanding to Go to Capitol, CNN Reports

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/two-secret-service-sources-corroborate-hutchinson-testimony-about-trump-demanding-to-go-to-capitol-cnn-reports/
.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 9:38 PM BST
CNN is reporting that two sources inside the Secret Service are corroborating Cassidy Hutchinson’s recent testimony that Donald Trump demanded to go to the Capitol on January 6 and was irate when his protective detail would not oblige.

In her explosive testimony before the congressional subcommittee investigating the January 6 Capitol riot, Hutchinson alleged Trump demanded to go to the Capitol with supporters he knew were armed and lunged at Robert Engel, the Secret Service agent in charge of his protective detail. Trump has denied this ever happened.
On Friday, CNN reported that two sources within the Secret Service have confirmed they heard stories about Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6 that are similar to Hutchinson’s allegations.

The agents confirmed Trump “angrily demanded to go to the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and berated his protective detail when he didn’t get his way,” according to CNN reporters Noah Gray and Zachary Cohen. One of the sources allegedly heard directly from the driver of the vehicle. Hutchinson claimed Trump tried taking control of the steering wheel after discovering he was being taken back to the White House after his speech to supporters.

Neither source confirmed there was a physical altercation, but both said stories were going around in the weeks and months following January 6 regarding the incident.

“He had sort of lunged forward — it was unclear from the conversations I had that he actually made physical contact, but he might have. I don’t know,” one source told the outlet. “Nobody said Trump assaulted him; they said he tried to lunge over the seat — for what reason, nobody had any idea.”

That source also said there were numerous stories that circulated among agents about Trump’s “fits of anger,” which included throwing plates. Hutchinson testified she knew of at least one incident where the former president allegedly threw a plate of food against the wall in a moment of anger. Trump also denied this happened.
Another source did say Engel denied Trump attacked him or lunged for the steering wheel, but confirmed Hutchinson’s claim that Trump was demanding to be taken to the Capitol.

It was previously reported the Secret Service was ready to have agents testify before the committee and deny Hutchinson’s claim about Trump’s alleged altercation with Engel.
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 9:59 PM BST
How is that corroborating Trump fighting for control of the steering wheel?

And how does his wanting to go to the Capitol show that he wanted people to break into it?

Do they think Trump was planning to climb through a window there
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:04 PM BST
Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony of Trump’s altercation with Secret Service detail did happen, multiple reports say

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-secret-service-hutchinson-testimony-b2114153.html
.

Investigative reporter Hunter Walker, who was covering the White House for Yahoo! News during the January 6 attack, took to Twitter to report that another source, this one with the DC Metropolitan Police Department, had told him a similar story to what Ms Hutchinson said.

“Back in April, a law enforcement source told me that they heard DC Metropolitan Police officers affiliated with the presidential motorcade share a story of Trump demanding to be drive to the Capitol and getting into an altercation with Secret Service on January 6,” he wrote. “I heard this story months before Cassidy Hutchinson went public with these allegations. I believed the story to be credible at the time because of the source”.
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:04 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 6:11PM, politicspunter wrote:


The only recent thing that I know for certain is that he has not requested any sort of endorsement from Trump. That suggests to me he is running, Trump or not.


How could De Santis publicly request an endorsement from Trump?

Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:05 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 9:59PM, tobermory wrote:


How is that corroborating Trump fighting for control of the steering wheel?And how does his wanting to go to the Capitol show that he wanted people to break into it?Do they think Trump was planning to climb through a window there


Do you still think that she was making it all up?

Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:06 PM BST
Clearly wildly exaggerating.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:07 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 10:04PM, tobermory wrote:


Jul  1, 2022 --  6:11PM, politicspunter wrote:The only recent thing that I know for certain is that he has not requested any sort of endorsement from Trump. That suggests to me he is running, Trump or not.How could De Santis publicly request an endorsement from Trump?


Multiple GOP Primary candidates have requested endorsements from Trump, many of whom visited him at his residence in Florida.

Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:08 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 10:06PM, tobermory wrote:


Clearly wildly exaggerating.


Why would she? Her testimony is now being corroborated from multiple sources.

Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:09 PM BST
Imagine De Santis holding a press conference and saying 'I am asking Donald Trump to endorse me'. Would the most humiliating, career ending moment. If he wants his endorsement he would ask privately and we'd be none the wiser. Most likely he has no need of it as he should win comfortably.
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:10 PM BST
Her testimony was that Trump was fighting for the steering wheel and had to be dragged away.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:12 PM BST
Well, let's not be too picky. My understanding is that DeSantis, or anyone connected with him, has not made an approach to Trump regarding a possible endorsement, nor has Trump offered one.
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:12 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 1:40AM, Escapee wrote:


Interesting book TobermoryWe've got differing opinions on a few candidates, So take my views with a pinch of salt.I think you could squeeze another £15-20 of value by laying Hilary & Trump Jnr out to your current max red of 627, Both have about 1 million to 1 chance IMHO.


I can't recall why I backed Trump Jnr. With Hilary, i'm not sure she can be ruled out. If Kamala was the Democrat frontrunner and was 12pts down in the polls in late 2023, then I anyone who thinks they could do better would be tempted to have a go.

Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:13 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 10:10PM, tobermory wrote:


Her testimony was that Trump was fighting for the steering wheel and had to be dragged away.


Already corroborated that Trump did indeed lunge forward when told he would not be taken to the Capitol.

Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:16 PM BST
But how can anyone know if he asked for an endorsement? The only candidates that would make a show of wanting Trump to back them would be no names that desperately need the MAGA votes. De Santis has those in the bag. He doesn't need Trump to tell them which way to vote in Florida.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:17 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 10:12PM, tobermory wrote:


Jul 1, 2022 -- 1:40AM, Escapee wrote:Interesting book TobermoryWe've got differing opinions on a few candidates, So take my views with a pinch of salt.I think you could squeeze another £15-20 of value by laying Hilary & Trump Jnr out to your current max red of 627, Both have about 1 million to 1 chance IMHO.I can't recall why I backed Trump Jnr. With Hilary, i'm not sure she can be ruled out. If Kamala was the Democrat frontrunner and was 12pts down in the polls in late 2023, then I anyone who thinks they could do better would be tempted to have a go.


Trump Jnr always gets prompted by the GOP pollster McLaughlin and usually comes in the first three. I don't count Hillary. She is 74 now and there were doubts regarding her health in 2016.

Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:18 PM BST

Jul 1, 2022 -- 10:16PM, tobermory wrote:


But how can anyone know if he asked for an endorsement? The only candidates that would make a show of wanting Trump to back them would be no names that desperately need the MAGA votes. De Santis has those in the bag. He doesn't need Trump to tell them which way to vote in Florida.


A fair summary.

Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:19 PM BST
I think the De Santis price has near bottomed out for the forseeable. I cannot see what is conceivably gonna happen in the next 8-10 months that could make it any lower than 4.0. More likely he will drift back up above 5 before long.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:22 PM BST
Possibly. However, that would suggest A.N Other is going to come out of the pack to challenge the current two clear front runners. If they don't, the DeSantis price will just shorten, especially if he wins clearly in the Governor election in November where he is massive favourite.
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:23 PM BST
I don't count Hillary. She is 74 now and there were doubts regarding her health in 2016.

True. Though even last time, after she had definitely been ruled out of running, I'm sure she came in to 20-25 at one point.

I just think the Democrat nomination will be up in the air if Biden indicates he won't run, and all kinds of people could be dropping below 20 in the betting.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:24 PM BST
Put it this way, if he wins that Florida Governor battle very easily, GOP donors are going to be falling over each other to fund a Presidential run and get Trump out of the way.
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 10:25 PM BST
De Santis and Trump have almost all the republican % chance between them now.

So realistically De Santis can only shorten more if Trump drifts significantly.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:28 PM BST
Suppose Trump and DeSantis both run. How would you price it, assuming no one else is in the running?
Report tobermory July 1, 2022 11:35 PM BST
I think Trump 1.5

That's why it doesn't make sense for De Santis. Being a supporter of Trump is a large part of his appeal, and he risks destroying that by challenging him.


He can wait for 2028.

If Trump doesn't run then De Santis likely will. I doubt Trump will formally declare before next June  but I still expect him to at this point.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 11:51 PM BST
I agree DeSantis may wait till 2028. The problem he may face, if he does that is that he has no idea how strong the Democrat candidate may be. Let's suppose for example, for 2024, Trump runs, DeSantis drops out and Trump wins. Then it's new candidate races for both parties in 2028, perhaps DeSantis best chance had gone. Then again if Biden runs in 2024 and wins, there is a strong chance that Kamala Harris would be the Democrat nominee in 2028 and DeSantis would be favourite against her I feel.
Report tobermory July 2, 2022 12:11 AM BST
Newsom is probably the strongest Democrat for 2028.

But easier to beat him then, than to beat Trump for the nomination in 2024.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 12:20 AM BST
Trump is 1.4 to run in 2024 on here. I am far from convinced. There is so much going on, both in his political and business world, none of it very nice, that I have serious doubts he will go for it. There is always his age too. He isn't a young man and a couple of recent pictures without the sprayed on tan and hairspray, don't paint him in a good light, so to speak. If he does run, there are moderates and independents, together with around 15% of his own party, who will not vote for him under any circumstances.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 12:23 AM BST
Something that the DeSantis team might be considering is that Trump is poor in debates. DeSantis seems very confident when speaking and he could give Trump a great deal of trouble if he was his opponent.
Report blank July 2, 2022 12:47 AM BST
Trump likely announces first and tries to tie up the GOP support. DeSantis will assess how that goes and his chance of beating him before announcing a run.
Report Escapee July 2, 2022 11:42 AM BST
Hilary; When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?

De Santis;  I'm far from being an expert but it would seem 2028 is his best chance, he might run or put in a good showing in 2024 just for the publicity, but as with Hilary, When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ? so he will want to time his one chance well and may well pull out of the nominee race if he thinks the Reps might lose to the incumbent.

I haven't layed De Santis (yet).
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2022 11:55 AM BST
Assuming trump is planning a run...

If desantis launches before trump, or around same time
even, he may well become a totem for the party and become,
by default, a popular candidate.

Others may look and see if they join, they take
votes from desantis and not trump, letting trump
win.... So don't run.

He's certainly in prime spot at the mo
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 11:59 AM BST

Jul 2, 2022 -- 11:42AM, Escapee wrote:


Hilary; When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ? De Santis;

Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 12:00 PM BST
Escapee • July 2, 2022 11:42 AM BST
Hilary; When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?

Trump?
Report Timber July 2, 2022 12:02 PM BST

Jul 2, 2022 -- 12:00PM, politicspunter wrote:


Escapee • July 2, 2022 11:42 AM BSTHilary; When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?Trump?


He's going to be the first president to win three times

wtf are you talking about

Report blank July 2, 2022 12:12 PM BST
Trump to announce a run in 2023 is surging on American markets, it's now 50/50.

Alex Jones, a conservative journalist and radio host says Trump will announce a run on Monday, independence day.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 12:18 PM BST
Excellent Laugh
Report A_T July 2, 2022 12:29 PM BST
he's running for be president in 2023?
Report A_T July 2, 2022 12:33 PM BST
Alex Jones, a conservative journalist and radio host

he's hardly a journalist - he's a conspiracy theorist. he denied that the Sandy Hook massacre of schoolkids was real - as a result he got his clock cleaned in court
Report Escapee July 2, 2022 12:34 PM BST

Hilary; When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?

Trump?


They haven't given him a 2nd go yet, and my money is betting they won't give him a 2nd go after he lost  2020.


Good luck with your bets, or in Timber's case, good luck with your delusions

Report A_T July 2, 2022 12:41 PM BST
When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?

Nixon
Report A_T July 2, 2022 12:42 PM BST
Hilary; When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?

Hilary polled 3 million more votes than Trump
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 12:42 PM BST

Jul 2, 2022 -- 12:41PM, A_T wrote:


When has any party given an election loser a 2nd go ?Nixon


Ah, right enough.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2022 1:03 PM BST
Stevenson had 2 goes at it, losing to Eisenhower twice.
Report Escapee July 2, 2022 1:47 PM BST
Well if Trump or Hilary wins either nomination, I lose my money, such is life.

Both of them lost the last election they stood in, seems crazy that the big backers would risk Billions or Trillions on  known losers.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2022 1:50 PM BST
How can kilary stand when she's locked up?

Lock her up, lock her up!
Report blank July 2, 2022 2:23 PM BST

Jul 2, 2022 -- 12:29PM, A_T wrote:


he's running for be president in 2023?


Running in 2024, announcing it before 2023. Now 1.70.

The USA punters seem very fickle, wild swings on the slightest news and then it usually just fades out.

Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 2:30 PM BST
They sure do.
Report tobermory July 2, 2022 7:23 PM BST
hmmmmm, Gavin Newsom is running TV ads in Florida
Report tobermory July 2, 2022 7:27 PM BST
California state Sen. Brian Dahle, the Bieber Republican challenging Newsom in the November governor’s race, said Newsom’s interest in national prominence comes at a cost in California. Dahle said his opponent should focus on lowering gas and energy costs for residents in his state.

“I think he’s focused on running for president, and it’s unfortunate,” Dahle said. “I’m getting calls every day from people who are struggling in California.”

Newsom’s assertions about having a “sub-zero” interest in the White House ring hollow when he focusing on national politics and buying ads in another state, said Sacramento-based Democratic political strategist Andrew Acosta.

“When the governor protests that it’s not on his radar, but he makes these moves, it makes political folks roll their eyes and say, ‘Of course he’s running,’” Acosta said.
Report tobermory July 2, 2022 7:52 PM BST
good article about Newsom's prospects here

https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/article263060073.html
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 8:12 PM BST
Yes, he has a lot going for him and a few here (me included) have backed him. However, will he even get a sniff at it? Biden runs, the rest are out the window.
Report Froggitt July 3, 2022 11:05 AM BST
£68,002
Report Froggitt July 3, 2022 11:06 AM BST
Mr Payday wanted £220 at 8.0 I couldn't resist.
Report Timber July 3, 2022 11:20 AM BST
Newsom is absolutely hated
He's a complete and utter sociopath
Report A_T July 3, 2022 11:26 AM BST
Newsom is absolutely hated

"The race was between the incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and businessman John H. Cox, a Republican, who qualified for the general election after placing first and second in the June 5, 2018, primary election. Newsom easily won in a landslide, with 62% of the vote, the biggest victory in a gubernatorial race in California since Earl Warren won re-election in 1950, and the biggest victory for a non-incumbent since 1930. The election also marked the first time Orange County has voted for the Democratic candidate since Jerry Brown won it in 1978, and the first time Democrats have won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state's history. Newsom got a record high number of almost eight million votes."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 11:26 AM BST

Jul 3, 2022 -- 11:06AM, Froggitt wrote:


Mr Payday wanted £220 at 8.0 I couldn't resist.


Free money!

Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 11:30 AM BST

Jul 3, 2022 -- 11:06AM, Froggitt wrote:


Mr Payday wanted £220 at 8.0 I couldn't resist.


He is probably been reading those Alex Jones conspiracy theorist stuff.

Report Timber July 3, 2022 11:48 AM BST

Jul 3, 2022 -- 11:26AM, A_T wrote:


Newsom is absolutely hated "The race was between the incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and businessman John H. Cox, a Republican, who qualified for the general election after placing first and second in the June 5, 2018, primary election. Newsom easily won in a landslide, with 62% of the vote, the biggest victory in a gubernatorial race in California since Earl Warren won re-election in 1950, and the biggest victory for a non-incumbent since 1930. The election also marked the first time Orange County has voted for the Democratic candidate since Jerry Brown won it in 1978, and the first time Democrats have won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state's history. Newsom got a record high number of almost eight million votes."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election


He is related to Piglosi, a lot of money sloshing about
Outside of the uber rich in Cali, he is despised
He has managed to single handedly turn Cali into a sh1thole
They are about to enter rolling blackouts and $10 gas

Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 12:21 PM BST
A massive gamble on Trump last night and this morning. Being matched now at 4.1 on outright market on here.
Report blank July 3, 2022 12:44 PM BST
Probably a combination of speculation that he will announce early and polls post Jan 6th hearing showing not much has changed VS Biden or DeSantis.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 3, 2022 1:10 PM BST
Kraken released 4th July, innit!
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 5:44 PM BST
2024 Iowa Republican Caucus Poll:

Trump 38%
DeSantis 17%
Pence 2%
Haley 2%
Cruz 1%
Rubio 1%
Reynolds 1%
Noem 1%
Undecided 36%

Neighborhood Research/Courageous Conservatives PAC ~ 546 ~ 6/22-7/1
https://m.facebook.com/CourageousConservativesPAC/posts/pfbid0GpLZpzMJYBYR7DmuDLd2EsVsXULKGviWcgW5LPUqSShwUNnB2yq38jxGH52r9sK5l


This is interesting because it's normally the first state to vote in the Primaries and it's clear that Trump, although still clearly ahead, hasn't got the vote sewn up.
Report Escapee July 3, 2022 6:23 PM BST
If trump wins the Nomination, then it makes it more likely that Biden will stand against him (IMO)

crazy rerun 80yo vs 81yo


USA - Presidential Election 2024 -- Republican Nominee        
50 Runners            £335,481 Matched   



              106.2%   95.8%             
Donald Trump    2.3 2.32 2.34   2.4   2.44   2.46   £254,017
        £424 £6 £155     £2,194 £20 £900  
Ron DeSantis    2.94 3.1 3.15   3.35   3.4   3.45   £32,619
        £2 £2,477 £191     £22 £28 £74  
Nikki Haley    19 19.5 20   21   22   28   £8,127
        £19 £10 £3     £8 £7 £2  
Mike Pence    12.5 13 13.5   14.5   15   15.5   £12,743
        £13 £473 £2     £6 £81 £21  
Mike Pompeo    32 34 38   40   42   44   £3,017
        £56 £59 £59     £3 £5 £5  
Ted Cruz    90 95 100   120   150   160   £3,453
        £2 £2 £1     £3 £1 £10  
Tom Cotton    40 44 46   50   55   60   £2,094
        £10 £4 £10     £4 £2 £2  
Kristi Noem    55 60 65   80   100   120   £3,462
        £1 £9 £2     £1 £3 £12  
Tim Scott    60 65 70   80   85   140   £1,571
        £2 £2 £14     £40 £216 £2  
  plus 41 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100 
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 6:41 PM BST
It could become a very deep strategic chess game. Who makes the first move?
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 6:47 PM BST
2024 Iowa Republican Caucus Poll:

Trump 38%
DeSantis 17%
Pence 2%
Haley 2%
Cruz 1%
Rubio 1%
Reynolds 1%
Noem 1%
Undecided 36%

Neighborhood Research/Courageous Conservatives PAC ~ 546 ~ 6/22-7/1
https://m.facebook.com/CourageousConservativesPAC/posts/pfbid0GpLZpzMJYBYR7DmuDLd2EsVsXULKGviWcgW5LPUqSShwUNnB2yq38jxGH52r9sK5l

Shift since November 2021 poll:

Trump -18
DeSantis +5
Pence (-)
Haley +1
Cruz (-)
Rubio (-)
Reynolds +1
Noem +1
Undecided +15

Neighborhood Research/Courageous Conservatives PAC ~ 546 ~ 6/22-7/1
https://m.facebook.com/CourageousConservativesPAC/posts/pfbid0GpLZpzMJYBYR7DmuDLd2EsVsXULKGviWcgW5LPUqSShwUNnB2yq38jxGH52r9sK5l
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 6:51 PM BST
I was sure there had been another Iowa poll but couldn't track it down initially. The link above shows the difference of the two polls. Don't know the pollster and methodology may be iffy but at least it is consistently iffy Grin Iowa wouldn't be an area I would have thought that would be in the least bit favourable to DeSantis.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 3, 2022 6:54 PM BST
Trump has to make the first move v Biden.

Not sure what the reps are waiting for, got
to be kudos to put up. I suppose they are scared
of being skewered by trump, but there's much to gain too.
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 11:12 PM BST
2024 National Republican Primary Poll:

Trump 45%
DeSantis 36%
.
Trump 65%
Pence 18%

@YouGovAmerica
/
@YahooNews
~ 457 RV ~ 6/24-6/27
https://news.yahoo.com/jan-6-poll-52-already-say-trump-should-be-prosecuted-how-that-number-could-grow-after-cassidy-hutchinsons-bombshells-221803503.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 11:12 PM BST
2024 National Democratic Primary Poll:

Biden 32%
Harris 24%
.
Biden 38%
Newsom 18%

@YouGovAmerica
/
@YahooNews
~ 595 RV ~ 6/24-6/27
https://news.yahoo.com/jan-6-poll-52-already-say-trump-should-be-prosecuted-how-that-number-could-grow-after-cassidy-hutchinsons-bombshells-221803503.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
Report politicspunter July 3, 2022 11:14 PM BST
2024 National General Election Poll:

Biden 46%
Trump 43%
.
Biden 45%
DeSantis 42%
.
Trump 45%
Harris 44%
.
Harris 45%
DeSantis 43%
.
Newsom 45%
Trump 43%
.
Newsom 43%
DeSantis 42%

@YouGovAmerica
/
@YahooNews
~ 1,239 RV ~ 6/24-6/27
https://news.yahoo.com/jan-6-poll-52-already-say-trump-should-be-prosecuted-how-that-number-could-grow-after-cassidy-hutchinsons-bombshells-221803503.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
Report Timber July 4, 2022 8:41 AM BST
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump announces today
Report Escapee July 4, 2022 10:05 AM BST
2024 National General Election Poll:

Biden 46%
Trump 43%



Trump would win 2024 with those percentages.

Dementia is the unspoken pandemic.
Report razz July 4, 2022 2:36 PM BST
Happy 4th of July murica

https://twitter.com/Banned_Bill/status/1543717758667730944
Report Timber July 4, 2022 3:04 PM BST
Report razz July 5, 2022 12:29 AM BST
only a few hours left for trump to announce his run on 4th july, wonder if markets will react at all when he probably doesn't..
Report razz July 5, 2022 12:30 AM BST
Could be wrong but it seems like a giant missed opportunity for him(if he is planning on running) not to announce it in front of a packed out crowd at a rally.
Report A_T July 5, 2022 6:52 AM BST
be surprised if he announces he's running this early - doing do would put campaign donations under greater scrutiny than he currently enjoys
Report blank July 5, 2022 10:14 AM BST
He was matched down to 3.95 yesterday.
I layed some at 4 and 4.1,and also Desantis at 4.9 and 5, that's about 2.2,plenty short enough with about 25 other republican runners.
Report politicspunter July 5, 2022 10:26 AM BST
There was some completely mad betting the last couple of days and all because one known conspiracy theorist claimed that Trump was going to declare as a candidate on the 4th of July.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 5, 2022 11:13 AM BST
It seems more and more likely there is right wing
influence on betting markets, where the market
is used to amplify the ramping.
Report politicspunter July 5, 2022 12:12 PM BST
Seems quite likely prices will drift back to where they were pre conspiracy theory.
Report A_T July 5, 2022 12:40 PM BST
It seems more and more likely there is right wing
influence on betting markets


it's deluded trump fans - don't forget they were still backing him in 2020/21 even after he lost
Report blank July 5, 2022 1:21 PM BST
The republicans get over-backed on the outright quite often. I've mentioned it before, where all republicans could have been layed at the odds on the lay side (not back side) and you would come out with an overall lay lower than the republicans to win the winning party market, if you crossed the spread and put up lays on the back side it would be way under.
The dens are 2.44 in the winning party market, but Biden & Harris, 50% of the book, are 2.6+ when you convert their nominee odds to outright odds, Warren, booker, Garcetti etc. even worse, not many dems come under that 2.44 when transferring nominee odds to outright.
Report razz July 5, 2022 3:05 PM BST

Jul 5, 2022 -- 6:52AM, A_T wrote:


be surprised if he announces he's running this early - doing do would put campaign donations under greater scrutiny than he currently enjoys


small donor support might mean he doesn't care, but yeah probably too early but the market seems to think he will

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