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2020 USA Presidential Election Opinion Polls

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Replies: 155
By:
Dave23
When: 09 Nov 20 22:45
yhtl, I'll await the report into what went wrong with the polling in 2020 with interest. However, a very lengthy analysis of the 2016 failings doesn't seem to have resulted in much, if any, of an improved performance.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 22:47
They reckon they switched about
2% Biden from hilary

Biden was forecast to get
around 80 million votes.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 22:49
So a +2 Biden = +4 hilary poll.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 22:50
Most modellers I followed on twitter had
Biden 290-300,...
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 22:56
Wiki say 95% vote counted

Biden    75,677,793    trump 71,264,360
Biden     50.6%    trump. 47.6%
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 23:03
There is roughly 1.5m votes to count in California and about a million in New York which should slightly increase the popular vote margin but it's still a polling miss and quite a fair sized one.
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 20 23:04

Nov 9, 2020 -- 10:26PM, politicspunter wrote:


Florida is a little bit unique because of the Cuban American vote Trump attracted.


How could that be an unknown factor ? Hardly like the Cubans showed up in Florida this summer. They've been a big factor there for 50+ years.

By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 23:09
It's a miss on head to head %

Put they seem to have got Biden votes correct.

Obviously they could have lucked that
But if they havnt lucked Biden votes
then it's trump votes they need
to explain... As in why did polls
not pick up these new votes or
if they did then why did they
not believe them enough to report them!
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 23:09
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/

This is an analysis of the 2016 election. Have to wait for full details of the 2020 one.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 23:13
Hillary won Miami-Dade Florida in 2016 63.68%-34.07%. Currently Biden leads there 53.3%-46%.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 23:15
I also think Florida could be in
part folk
moving there, or switching vote
to holiday home like the trumps.

I think I read there's something
like 1 million 2nd homes in florida
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 23:19
Could easily be. If anything it's becoming a more republican state every election.
By:
MartinK
When: 10 Nov 20 12:39
Who are the real Shy Trumpers?
Political correctness has left a cadre of white graduates unwilling to reveal their voting intention
BY ERIC KAUFMANN (Professor of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, and author of Whiteshift: Immigration, Populism and the Future of White Majorities)

https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/         

-  Some key points\;



Data from a recent Cato Institute survey shows that 88% of Trump-voting graduates compared to just 44% of Clinton-supporting graduates agreed that “The political climate these days prevents me from saying things I believe because others might find them offensive.”

As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Emily Maitlis that Trump voters were over twice as likely as Biden voters — by a 19 to 9 margin — to conceal their intended vote from others. I would expect this ratio to be considerably higher among university graduates, which would, accordingly, skew predictions the most among graduates.

According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’

The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Nov 20 12:56
The exit poll I have has white female college graduate (14% of voters) 54-45 Biden and white male college graduates (17% of voters) 51-48 Trump.
By:
MartinK
When: 10 Nov 20 17:24
The link in the document points to the same NYTimes exit poll. I do notice though:
The numbers on this page are preliminary estimates from exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool. These surveys interviewed voters outside of polling places or early voting sites, or by phone (to account for mail-in voters).

Results from interviews with 15,590 voters are shown below. These numbers will be updated as more data becomes available, and they will eventually be adjusted to match the actual vote count.

While exit polls offer an initial indication of how groups voted on election night, they are not perfect. The polls are not precise enough to distinguish between, say, 53 percent support or 50 percent support from a certain group. Like any survey, they are subject to sampling error, and they rely on estimates of how many people voted in each group.


They assert - white college graduates 49-49 -  now it's - White college graduate 32% of voters 48 - 51 - to Biden
They may well have written the article based in the numbers at the time, which have changed with added samples.

Look like they wrote the article before the numbers had settled (may yet settle further).

That said, the 3 point difference (48 - 51 - to Biden) is a lot less than the ABC " Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’" and Pew 26 point lead for Biden with white college graduates.
By:
MartinK
When: 10 Nov 20 18:07
I suppose the question we should be asking is that both the Pre-election polls and the exit-polls are "ALL POLLS"
- why suddenly are people apparently answering polling questions differently. i.e. if you were a shy-Trump voter before the election why are you not still a shy-Trump voter after the election?

Maybe people were "lying" to themselves (and the pollsters) before the election, but can't do that any more once they voted ?
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Nov 20 18:23
Yes, this is the one that has been puzzling me too.
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 14:34
538's Senate Forecast:


    Republican Seats                                   45 or less        46        47        48        49        50        51+   
    Democrat Seats (Inc 2 Ind)        55+        54        53        52        51        50        49 or less   
    Senate Majority        D        D        D        NO        NO        NO        R   
    Probabilty Lite        0.278        0.097        0.105        0.11        0.106        0.083        0.212   
    Probabilty Classic        0.198        0.102        0.122        0.136        0.127        0.097        0.204   
    Probability Deluxe        0.142        0.092        0.116        0.139        0.141        0.118        0.24   
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 14:42
Notes (for the table above):

Democrat Seats - Includes the two Independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (King & Sanders)
Senate Majority - Refers to Democrat Majority (D), Republican Majority (R) and No Overall Majority (NO)
Senate Majority - Excludes independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (as applies under BF's rules)
Probability Lite/Classic/Deluxe - Refers to probability of that number of seats forecast under 538's 3 different models.
Due to rounding the forecast probability totals do not necessarily add to 1 (100%).
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 14:43
    Lite        Classic        Deluxe   

Republican Majority    ||    0.212    ||    0.204    ||    0.24    ||
No Overall Majority    ||    0.299    ||    0.36    ||    0.398    ||
Democrat Majority    ||    0.48    ||    0.422    ||    0.35    ||
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 14:46
Ooops, 538 overall senate forecast:


            Lite        Classic        Deluxe   
    Republican Majority        0.212        0.204        0.24   
    No Overall Majority        0.299        0.36        0.398   
    Democrat Majority        0.48        0.422        0.35   
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 14:47
Senate Majority - Excludes independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (as applies under BF's rules)
Probability Lite/Classic/Deluxe - Refers to probability of that number of seats forecast under 538's 3 different models.
Due to rounding the forecast probability totals do not necessarily add to 1 (100%).
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 14:47
Dave, I am not sure of this. In the tables you have "Democrat Seats (Inc 2 Ind)" but in the next post you have "Excludes independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (as applies under BF's rules)" ?
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 14:50
Do 538 mention Betfair in their summary? Smarkets have completely different rules btw regarding the independent senators.
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 14:55
It does not seem to have been a very good forecast with the two Georgia Senate races yet to be determined (run-offs in January). This is hardly surprising as the polling that 538 relies on to make its projections was rather poor (or 'Not Great' according to Nate).
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 14:59
Dave, I am not clear on your tables. Can you have a look at my post of 2:47 pm please?
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 15:04
No politicspunter, 538 did not mention Betfair in their Senate forecast. However, as I have largely been betting on the Betfair markets and I'm currently posting on their forum, I considered it reasonable to base the 'Senate Majority' according to their rules. I believe that I did state this clearly in my notes.

All of the figures have been extrapolated directly from 538's site so, barring any errors on my part, it's very easy to obtain the Democrat Senate Majority or Control figures inclusive of the two independent senators; this can be done using the seat numbers or by adding by adding the No Overall Majority numbers to the Democrat Majority numbers.
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 15:08
Sorry, in one table you have included the independent senators but in in the next you have excluded them?
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 15:10
politicspunter, the Total Seat numbers are inclusive of independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (working on the assumption no additional independent senators would be elected, as transpired). The Senate Majority numbers exclude these independent senators from the Democrats. I stated this in the notes.

If your argument is that my tables are not very reader-friendly, as opposed to disputing its accuracy, I would agree with you. I designed them for my own use prior to the election and have made minimal effort to make them any more reader-friendly prior to posting them here. However, I maintain that the figures are accurate and specified in the table notes I included.
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 15:10
Btw, Betfair "rules" are often unique in the betting market as this election has proved yet again.
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 15:12
If you apply those 538 figures to let's say Smarkets eg, they make more sense.
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 15:26
I'll agree to differ. I again emphasise that the Democrat Seat Total include the two Independent Senators (the 'Number of Democrat Seats Betfair Market' does not!), the Senate Majority numbers exclude the Independent Senators from the Democrats (as do the Betfair relevant markets).

I'm happy to post the 538 Senate Forecasts with the Democrats inclusive of the 2 Independent Senators, although that can quite easily be calculated from the tables above or directly obtained from the 538 site.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
.
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Nov 20 15:32
I'm sorry Dave, I have no idea why you think Betfair should even be mentioned regarding the 538 forecast. It's a completely different market with a completely different set of rules. You are not comparing like for like.
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 15:40
I think that the Betfair market rules should be mentioned as most of the Betfair forum readers that are betting on these markets are probably largely doing so on Betfair.

However, I do accept that the tables above could, despite my notes, provide a false impression of 538's Senate forecast. Therefore, I'm happy to post the tables again with the Democrats inclusive of the two Independent Senators. In the event of Republicans obtaining 50 exactly seats and the Democrats obtaining 50 seats (inclusive of the 2 Independents), I have assigned control of the senate to the Democrats on the assumption they are like to obtain the Presidency/Vice Presidency and thus have a casting vote in the event of a tie. Tables:

    Republican Seats                                   45 or less        46        47        48        49        50        51+   
    Democrat Seats (Inc 2 Ind)        55+        54        53        52        51        50        49 or less   
    Senate Control (Dems Inc 2 Indpts)        D        D        D        D        D        D        R   
    Probabilty Lite        0.278        0.097        0.105        0.11        0.106        0.083        0.212   
    Probabilty Classic        0.198        0.102        0.122        0.136        0.127        0.097        0.204   
    Probability Deluxe        0.142        0.092        0.116        0.139        0.141        0.118        0.24   
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 15:41
    Republican Majority        0.212        0.204        0.24   
    Democrat Control        0.779    0.779    0.782    0.779    0.748   
By:
Dave23
When: 12 Nov 20 15:43
            Lite        Classic        Deluxe   
    Republican Majority        0.212        0.204        0.24   
    Democrat Control        0.779        0.782        0.748   
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