yhtl, I'll await the report into what went wrong with the polling in 2020 with interest. However, a very lengthy analysis of the 2016 failings doesn't seem to have resulted in much, if any, of an improved performance.

So a +2 Biden = +4 hilary poll.

Wiki say 95% vote counted

Biden    75,677,793    trump 71,264,360
Biden     50.6%    trump. 47.6%

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/

This is an analysis of the 2016 election. Have to wait for full details of the 2020 one.

I also think Florida could be in
part folk
moving there, or switching vote
to holiday home like the trumps.

I think I read there's something
like 1 million 2nd homes in florida

Who are the real Shy Trumpers?
Political correctness has left a cadre of white graduates unwilling to reveal their voting intention
BY ERIC KAUFMANN (Professor of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, and author of Whiteshift: Immigration, Populism and the Future of White Majorities)

https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/         

-  Some key points\;



Data from a recent Cato Institute survey shows that 88% of Trump-voting graduates compared to just 44% of Clinton-supporting graduates agreed that “The political climate these days prevents me from saying things I believe because others might find them offensive.”

As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Emily Maitlis that Trump voters were over twice as likely as Biden voters — by a 19 to 9 margin — to conceal their intended vote from others. I would expect this ratio to be considerably higher among university graduates, which would, accordingly, skew predictions the most among graduates.

According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’

The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.

The link in the document points to the same NYTimes exit poll. I do notice though:
The numbers on this page are preliminary estimates from exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool. These surveys interviewed voters outside of polling places or early voting sites, or by phone (to account for mail-in voters).

Results from interviews with 15,590 voters are shown below. These numbers will be updated as more data becomes available, and they will eventually be adjusted to match the actual vote count.

While exit polls offer an initial indication of how groups voted on election night, they are not perfect. The polls are not precise enough to distinguish between, say, 53 percent support or 50 percent support from a certain group. Like any survey, they are subject to sampling error, and they rely on estimates of how many people voted in each group.

They assert - white college graduates 49-49 -  now it's - White college graduate 32% of voters 48 - 51 - to Biden
They may well have written the article based in the numbers at the time, which have changed with added samples.

Look like they wrote the article before the numbers had settled (may yet settle further).

That said, the 3 point difference (48 - 51 - to Biden) is a lot less than the ABC " Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’" and Pew 26 point lead for Biden with white college graduates.

Yes, this is the one that has been puzzling me too.

Notes (for the table above):

Democrat Seats - Includes the two Independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (King & Sanders)
Senate Majority - Refers to Democrat Majority (D), Republican Majority (R) and No Overall Majority (NO)
Senate Majority - Excludes independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (as applies under BF's rules)
Probability Lite/Classic/Deluxe - Refers to probability of that number of seats forecast under 538's 3 different models.
Due to rounding the forecast probability totals do not necessarily add to 1 (100%).

Ooops, 538 overall senate forecast:

	Lite	Classic	Deluxe
Republican Majority	0.212	0.204	0.24
No Overall Majority	0.299	0.36	0.398
Democrat Majority	0.48	0.422	0.35

Dave, I am not sure of this. In the tables you have "Democrat Seats (Inc 2 Ind)" but in the next post you have "Excludes independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (as applies under BF's rules)" ?

It does not seem to have been a very good forecast with the two Georgia Senate races yet to be determined (run-offs in January). This is hardly surprising as the polling that 538 relies on to make its projections was rather poor (or 'Not Great' according to Nate).

No politicspunter, 538 did not mention Betfair in their Senate forecast. However, as I have largely been betting on the Betfair markets and I'm currently posting on their forum, I considered it reasonable to base the 'Senate Majority' according to their rules. I believe that I did state this clearly in my notes.

All of the figures have been extrapolated directly from 538's site so, barring any errors on my part, it's very easy to obtain the Democrat Senate Majority or Control figures inclusive of the two independent senators; this can be done using the seat numbers or by adding by adding the No Overall Majority numbers to the Democrat Majority numbers.

politicspunter, the Total Seat numbers are inclusive of independent senators that caucus with the Democrats (working on the assumption no additional independent senators would be elected, as transpired). The Senate Majority numbers exclude these independent senators from the Democrats. I stated this in the notes.

If your argument is that my tables are not very reader-friendly, as opposed to disputing its accuracy, I would agree with you. I designed them for my own use prior to the election and have made minimal effort to make them any more reader-friendly prior to posting them here. However, I maintain that the figures are accurate and specified in the table notes I included.

If you apply those 538 figures to let's say Smarkets eg, they make more sense.

I'm sorry Dave, I have no idea why you think Betfair should even be mentioned regarding the 538 forecast. It's a completely different market with a completely different set of rules. You are not comparing like for like.

Republican Majority	0.212	0.204	0.24
Democrat Control	0.779    0.779    0.782    0.779    0.748