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2020 USA Presidential Election Opinion Polls

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By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 22:00
DJT into 16.5/17 to win this one.
Biden out to 1.06.

Confused
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 22:00
This is what I do. I look at the candidate market roughly two years before the event and scatter some minimal stakes across a hoard of folks who are at least 300.0 and mostly nearer 1000.0. Sometimes you get lucky and most times you don't. However, even one or two "runners" means you can trade/arb for a profit.
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 22:07
That list looks very thin on the ground.

Surely both parties have some younger more enthusiastic people that could have a go who are not celebs?

Tucker Carlson and Dwayne Johnson both at 25/1!
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 22:09
politicspunter, I find it very surprising that 538 made Collins a 2.44 on the basis of the polls detailed below (in summary to avoid clogging up the thread) but I'm happy to take your word for it.

Poll Added Date/Pollster/Rating/Gideon-Collins/Margin
01 Nov Change Research C- 54-46 Gideon +8
01 Nov Change Research C- 46-42 Gideon +4
31 Oct Emerson College A- 48-46 Gideon +2
28 Oct SurveyUSA       A  51-49 Gideon +2
28 Oct SurveyUSA       A  46-45 Gideon +1
27 Oct Colby College   U  47-43 Gideon +3
[14 Oct Gideon +7; 05 Oct Gideon +1/+1; 30 Sep Gideon +8/+5; 24 Sep Gideon +4; 22 Sep Gideon +0...]

Regardless, it doesn't seem to alter the fact that even the best of these polls missed the outcome by a considerable distance.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 08 Nov 20 22:15
Biden may be forced to offer to stand again to defeat threat of trump

Quite a bit of bluff, perhaps.


Does trump win rep nomination,
Or do they look to go more mid stream
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 22:20
Dave, modellers give extra weight to how highly they rate the pollster and how near the poll was carried out to election day. At a glance there there are some A rated pollsters giving Gideon a lead of 1 or 2 in the last week of campaigning. That's well into toss up country.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 22:22
Trump should be ok to stand as Florida felons now are able to vote post conviction.
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 22:36
politicspunter, Whilst I was happy to take your word for it, I have now confirmed that, exactly as you stated, 538 did indeed make Gideon 'only' a 59/41 favourite over Collins (1.69/2.44). However, it doesn't alter the fact that those polls were dreadful. The polls were only marginally better in North Carolina.

In fact, 538's projections for the Senate, presumably as a result of the faulty polls on which they were based, appear to have been some way off the mark with the 2 Georgia run-offs and Alaska TBD.


Republican Seats
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 22:44
In fact, 538's projections for the Senate, presumably as a result of the faulty polls on which they were based, appear to have been some way off the mark with the 2 Georgia run-offs and Alaska TBD.

Georgia seat- 538 final model...

Chance of winning

Perdue 57
Ossoff 43

Popular vote estimate

Perdue 49.3%
Ossoff 49%

Current Count in seat..

Perdue 49.7%
Ossoff 47.9%

Dave, Now I would say that's fairly close to the 538 model final estimate?
By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 22:49
politicspunter • November 8, 2020 10:22 PM GMT
Trump should be ok to stand as Florida felons now are able to vote post conviction.  Laugh

Don't they need to pay their fines though? Wink
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 22:50
I wondered who would be the first to notice thatLaugh
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 08 Nov 20 22:55
Kanye will stand his fine.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 22:59
I know a decent amount about politics, but defer to some of you guys like PP and frog in polling. Is it not very difficult in a red state like Georgia that hasn't voted Dem for Pres since 92 to gauge how the other races will go in the state? I mean traditionally Americans did a lot of split tickets anyway, but with a wildcard like Trump did that make a split ticket vote harder to judge in the polls?
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:06
I know a decent amount about politics, but defer to some of you guys like PP and frog in polling. Is it not very difficult in a red state like Georgia that hasn't voted Dem for Pres since 92 to gauge how the other races will go in the state? I mean traditionally Americans did a lot of split tickets anyway, but with a wildcard like Trump did that make a split ticket vote harder to judge in the polls?

Well, red state or not, here is the 538 final President model for that state...

Chance of winning

Biden 58
Biden 42

Popular vote

Biden 50.1%
Trump 49.2%

Current count

Biden 49.48%
Trump 49.27%
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 23:20
Yes polticspunter, I agree that 538 seem to have done ok in regards to the above Georgia race. What I meant, by the above, was that the two Georgia seats are going to a run-off and therefore they and the Alaska race are yet to to be determined (TBD). All of the other Senate races appear to have been called on RCP (although some of these have not yet been called by all of the Cable/TV Networks).

There are, however, multiple 538 Senate race forecasts that were way off the mark. North Carolina being one of the most glaring. That is not surprising given that their projections are largely based on the guff the pollsters [sometimes] feed them. Their overall Senate control forecast appears some distance off the mark too - even in the unlikely event that the two Georgia run-offs go to the Democrats (seemingly Gross has not yet given up on Alaska but a Trump 2020-2024 2nd term would seem almost as likely as the Democrats winning that from their current position).
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 23:32
* Yes 50/50 would give them control, on the assumption Trump is unable to prove that the Democrats cheated in the Presidential race. However, they are unlikely to to obtain 50+ seats and, even if they did, 538 would still have been off having given the Democrats a 75% to 78% probability (Deluxe model/Lite model) of obtaining control. They gave the Republicans a 21-24% (Lite/Deluxe) probability of retaining control of the Senate.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:37
North Carolina, the Republican Thom Tillis looks to have done very well there but he is not a huge amount ahead of the 538 forecast (50.5% democrat/47.3% republican) current count is Republican 48.7%, Democrat 47.0%. Besides, there are still about 3% to count which, as they are mail-in, could be favourable to the democrat. Alaska is impossible to know as they wait till the 10th before counting mail-ins I believe but it looks tough for the democrat to win although to be fair he is the underdog.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:39
Control of the Senate still looks tough to call.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:42
Just to say that in North Carolina senate race, the Libertarian candidate has done well, picking up 3.1% of the vote so far which may have hurt the democrat.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:45
In fact, 538 had other candidates picking up 2.2% in North Carolina Senate but they currently have 4.3%, roughly double the estimate.
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 23:46
Sorry, I'm not clear on your 50.5/47.3 forecast figures?

538 appear to have given Cunningham (Democrat) a 68% chance of winning in their final pre-election North Carolina Senate forecast.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 23:48
I'd have to argue about lib hurting the Dem pp, most libs would be more right leaning than left.
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 23:49
Ah, I see, the forecast vote share. Nonetheless, I think it's fair to say they were out on this one as were the polls.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:55
They may be a little out but it's not a massive miss. Besides, as we know, if the polls that are driving their model are badly wrong, so will they be. There are still a few votes to come in though.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 23:56
You could argue that the Libertarian/other candidate has taken up to 2% of the democrat vote but it's tough to say for certain.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 23:59
From my time when I lived in Texas Libertarians would split around 80/20 right and left - could be different in N Carolina, but unlikely.
By:
Dave23
When: 09 Nov 20 00:02
True. Those votes might take it marginally closer to the forecast vote share but it's highly unlikely to change the ultimate outcome. With the exception of Fox calling Arizona, the Networks have been incredibly cautious in calling races in these elections, which is probably better than when the reverse was true such as Florida in 2000.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 00:03
Well Cunningham the democrat is 95K behind currently. The "others" candidates have currently 235K and they were estimated to get around 120K. It's possible that it may have made a difference to the result but obviously unclear.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 00:13
On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging romantic text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman confirmed that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham. The husband of the woman who confirmed having an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race. Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.

Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against.

Looks like a good battle there!
By:
Dave23
When: 09 Nov 20 11:10
Talking of the polling industry, whilst I don't always agree the Guardian's articles, this one has my full backing:

.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/polling-industry-us-election-2016-debacle-repeats-itself
.

Can anyone get hold of any explosives?

Perhaps the Horse Racing forum would be a better bet? The closure of Black Market Reloaded was most inconvenient.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 21:58
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
8m
Estimates of the polling error in swing states, making educated guesses about what the final numbers will look like in states that aren't done counting yet.

WI Trump+8
IA T+7
FL T+6
MI T+5
TX T+5
OH T+5
NH T+4
ME T+3
PA T+3
NC T+2
NV T+2
MN T+2
VA T+2
AZ T+2
NM T+1
GA T+1
CO B+1
By:
Dave23
When: 09 Nov 20 22:11
Interesting. There seems to something of a pattern in those states! I seem to recall that Trump was also under-estimated, in some cases by a rather large margin, by the polling companies in a lot of the battleground states in 2016.

I wonder if Nate will be quite so willing to defend the polling companies this time?
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 22:16
Nate isn't a pollster remember.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 22:17
Trump did even better than this in Republican states where, because the result was a formality, there was next to no polling.
By:
Dave23
When: 09 Nov 20 22:23
I know he's a modeller, not a pollster, but he does rather depend on the accuracy of their data. I seem to recall that he was rather defensive of the polling companies in 2016. In fairness, he has, at least occasionally, criticised them in the past for activities such as herding.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 22:25
This is no more than a guesstimate but it appears to me that folks who were undecided in the final polling week, voted for Trump.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 22:26
Florida is a little bit unique because of the Cuban American vote Trump attracted.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 22:30
Regarding Florida, natioal exit polls say Biden won Hispanic/Latino voters 65-32. In Florida he only won them by 52-47.
By:
Dave23
When: 09 Nov 20 22:33
It could be a contributory factor but I'm not sure that would justify how far out the polling was in some of those states.

I suspect that it's tempting for the polling companies to attribute the differences between their final polls and the actual election result to a 'late swing' or such like. It would rarely be accurate to do so. In their report into the polling companies performance in the UK General Election 2017, if I recall correctly, the BPC suggested that a maximum of 1 point of the amount by which the pollsters had under-estimated the Conservative vote could be attributed to a late swing to the Tories.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 09 Nov 20 22:39
If the opinion pollsters did exit polls
They will know where they went wrong.



I think a lot of first time voters
must have turned out for trump, and
these are usually valued down
by pollsters. (or very irregular voters)

They seem to have got Biden vote right
As the total votes is a ball park of
what they predicted.

I never saw any predictions of
Total trump votes, despite asking
folk too.
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